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Posts posted by Carrello

  1. Howie, this is the conundrum for me: The REER (real effective exchange rate). One thing we do know that covers major issues for Iraq: The issues need a REER. The 2023 and 2024  budgets need it, the HCL needs it, WTO full membership needs it, all investments need it. We also know the REER can be revealed prior to any of these issues seeing REER inclusion.


    I never thought Iraq would wait on full WTO membership, but perhaps they are. Is this a great, grand slam project? This whole thing is so much bigger than imagined by me. I'm still in the Shabibi mindset days. Just push the button, already. But we have moved into another world of Iraq becoming possibly the most advanced financial system in the world. By that, I mean in terms of latest technology and systems, and not necessarily strength. Iraq has the advantage of starting from the ground up with new systems instead of a remodel of a huge, lumbering system, and with the assistance of many experts and countries from around the world.


    Iraq is not on its' own here. A country cannot just flip a switch and revise their currency rate if they want to do business with the world. The new rate, in this case, is subject to UST, IMF, WB approval that we know of. Does the Bank of Settlements have a say considering the IMF and World Bank have stated in documents the new Iraqi rate will rock the entire banking system?


    Remember: Iraq sent a delegation to Washington DC last June to request a delay in the rate change. The systems were not ready. Iraq was given a list to issues that needed to be accomplished prior to a rate change. One of the items was get a handle on corruption. What happened? The individuals corrupting the banking and financial system were starting to be arrested. Criminals were offered immunity from prison if they just returned the stolen funds, and the arrests, like we have never seen before, are continuing. The US Treasury went to Baghdad to fix and complete the CBI required system to connect to the rest of the world, and I have not seen where they have left yet. What do many of the new systems do? They beat corruption, money laundering, etc. 


    Iraq started trading dinars with 40+ international banks for their home country's currency. That means Iraq and all the banks, individually, needed to be connected electronically, for transfers and CBI monitoring. CBI, the Iraq banks, and all of the corresponding banks needed to be connected so they can transfer and "talk." Big job.


    One item that has been talked about for decades is investors getting profits out of Iraq. The IMF Article 8 insurance guarantees investors have the capability of investing funds and moving funds (profits) back out. Biggie!


    Is the "package" inclusive of all the new aspects of Iraq's success (CBI financials systems, HCL, WTO, budgets, etc) or just the REER? I would say, with the exception of full WTO membership announcement, I would say yes.


    My point is, through my 3:30 AM meanderings, is this: The Iraq RV is so much more complex than just a rate. It has a massive system tied to it now. I believe Iraq has been planned as the bedrock of security and example of democracy and success for the Middle East. Dictators and theocracies don't like happy, wealthy citizens. Yes, Iraq has oil, but I believe there is a bigger, long term picture out there in the sense of others. 


    We wait....



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  2. 50 minutes ago, NEPatriotsFan1 said:

    I’ve been informed it’s next year Q1 and it won’t be near what any of the gurus have been preaching for 20 years…. But we’ll all make some money. I hope the person who told me is wrong. But they’ve been right about a lot of other stuff. 


    • Do your informants have an answer for how they can rebuild Iraq at a rate of 1310
    • And why the IMF and Sudani agreed on non-financing (using current Iraq funding only) for the projects to rebuild Iraq (1310)?
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    1. Therefore, the deposits, which guarantee customers’ deposits at that bank, prevent it from performing its obligations towards them in accordance with the new amendment to its internal regulations.  However, mistrust is still prevalent within the culture of citizens, with their reluctance to deal with banks, and we believe that the reason that led to this is the faltering banks, the methods of some banks in dealing with customers, complex routine procedures, and some banks’ circumvention of the Central Bank’s instructions, which outline mechanisms for transparent and proper dealing with citizens.  Therefore, the new strategy to enhance confidence, as explained by the Governor on 1/11/2024, will depend on the following: 
    2. First - Improving the level of banking services and products provided to customers. 
    3. Second: The availability of the bank’s financial solvency and its ability to meet customers’ requests at the time of request without delay. 
    4. Third: The bank’s control and direct supervision focus on measuring the level of service provided by banks to customers. 
    5. Fourth - It provides external (international) confidence in the bank through its ability to adhere to international standards and obtain confidence from correspondent banks. 
    6. Fifth - ""Increase the capital of banks"" on the new date of ""February 15, 2024"", which is the deadline specified for the increase.
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  3. You have to ask yourself why dollar would be chunky money now??? The Iraqi people know, they have been told by the PM Sudani, the dinar will be worth more than the dinar shortly. The dollar has been banned from use in Iraq as of 1/1/24. Why would you hoard something worth less than what is in your hand? You would NOT. You can't buy a car currently with US dollars. 


    Don't believe everything you read. We are at the end RV process. No 2024, no 2025. NOW.


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  4. Tidbit: Salaries are lagging, infrastructure services have not been refurbished/builtout. But Sadr doesn't have citizens rioting, protesting. Why? 3 months ago or so, PM Sudani told the citizens the IQD would be worth more than the dollar. When Iraqi Muslims traveled to Saudi Arabia for Haj, it was reported they did not spend dinars but spent dollars. Why? Look at the blueprint.


    The dollar black market will die a very quick death when the dinar is worth more than the dollar. Poof! Immediate! That is why the exchange companies are complaining. It is against the law to use the dollar currently to even buy a car. The dollar has been outlawed in Iraq.


    You cannot build out a country with roads, housing, ports, airports at a rate of 1310 and investors won't touch it at that rate. It just doesn't pencil. 

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  5. "THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF IRAQ, JORDAN AND EGYPT DISCUSS ENHANCING TRIPARTITE COOPERATION AND COMMON AREAS" A meeting was held between the foreign ministers of Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt on the sidelines of the high-level part of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The meeting focused on ways to enhance tripartite cooperation between these countries in several economic and political fields. During the meeting, it was agreed on the importance of accelerating the completion of joint projects and presenting new ideas and projects in various fields such as electrical connection, renewable energy, communications, trade, industry, transportation, health, pharmaceutical industries, housing and reconstruction. Areas related to culture, tourism, youth and sports were also discussed, in addition to security and defense cooperation between these countries. The ministers also discussed the situation in the Middle East region, stressing the importance of achieving security and stability there, and touched on many issues, including the Palestinian issue and the efforts made to find a solution to the Syrian crisis. The ministers agreed to continue coordination between them to prepare for the upcoming tripartite summit scheduled to be held in Cairo.

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  6. * Census scheduled for 2024

    * Only 40 feet of hard cast remain on the front of the new CBI building

    • The WTO will convene in Baghdad on October 4, 2024, a WTO
    • Iraq acceptance symposium. In
    •  c/ Ceorder to be accepted into the WTO Iraq will need an internationally acceptable exchange rate.
    • The USTreasury has spent from June 2023 until currently with a team finalizing new banking systems at the CBI. "Al-Sudani stressed that the government has taken several measures with the Central Bank of Iraq in implementing financial reform, which is considered a key to economic reform in achieving the government’s goal of moving from a unilateral economy towards a productive and multi-economic economy, where, for the first time, a financial database ""was created"" for banking transactions, in a way that achieves confidence***. ""Required in dealings with banks and international banks""
    • The 3-year budget was approved in June 2023 for 2023-202024-25 with two definite portions: Service and development. There was not adequate funds in the 23' budget to cover just the service/salaries portion of the budget. Funds have not been spent for the 23' portion of the budget. Recently funds have been spent for salaries, retirees, etc from accounts with unpaid balances, funds from stolen monies brought back into Iraq (crooks have been given amnesty if the funds are returned). So what is Iraq waiting on to spend 23' money? The rate.
      * HCL is about ready to pass, but IMO we don't need it. The HCL needs a rate, the rate doesn't need the HCL.

    * Sudani went on a PR tour in New York at the recent UN General Assembly meeting. MOUs, contracts, etc have been signed in the past few months in Baghdad with countries, companies, wanting to do business in Iraq.


    * IMO we are there! Too early from my brain (3:30 am here) to include more progress that has been achieved in Iraq, but they have turned around and are ready to run.  Maliki is even praising and supporting this government.



    | Today, 13:47 |


    - Baghdad


    The "Today" news agency publishes, today, Saturday, (September 23, 2023), a summary of the meetings of Prime Minister Mohamed Shaia Al-Sudani on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly at its 78th session held in New York.

    Below is a summary of the meetings:


    From Europe:

    ●German Chancellor

    ●The Spanish Prime Minister

    ●Bulgarian President

    ●Norwegian Prime Minister

    ● The Dutch Prime Minister

    ● President of Cyprus

    ●British Deputy Prime Minister


    From Asia:

    ● President of the Republic of South Korea

    ● Prime Minister of Malaysia

    From the countries of the region:

    ●Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council

    ●The Iranian President

    ●The Kuwaiti Prime Minister

    ●The Lebanese Prime Minister


    As well as:

    ■ US Secretary of State

    ■ Secretary-General of the United Nations

    ■ Secretary General of NATO

    ■ US President's Special Envoy for the Middle East and North Africa McGurk

    ■ U.S. Treasury Undersecretary

    ■ Director of the United Nations Development Program

    ■Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)

    Research centers, seminars and interviews

    ▪︎ Dialogue session with the US Council on Foreign Relations

    ▪︎ Panel discussion organized by Al-Monitor Foundation and Simafor of the Americas

    ▪︎Meeting with members of the American Chamber of Commerce in the presence of businessmen, investors and representatives of major American companies

    ▪︎Interview with Bloomberg Channel

    ▪︎Interview with CNN

    ▪︎Interview with the National newspaper

    ▪︎Meeting with the New York Times


    • Meeting with the American company General Electric

    • Meeting with the Honeywell Multinational Technology Group

    • Coveken American law firm (??)

    The Director of Prime Minister Rabie Nader's Information Office confirmed today, Saturday (23 September 2023), that Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani, over a period of six days, best presented Iraq's official speech, which is based on balance, building serious economic partnerships and building bridges of cooperation.

    Nader said in a post on the platform (x) Twitter previously, followed by "today," that "an important and active Iraqi movement in New York, included meetings and meetings with an unprecedented number of leaders and leaders of countries from different trends and continents, and the common link between all of them the great desire to open up to and work with Iraq."

    He added that "the Prime Minister, over the course of six days, presented, in the best way, Iraq's official speech based on balance, building serious economic partnerships and building bridges of cooperation."

    Nader continued: "It is remarkable that most of those met by the Prime Minister, leaders and presidents, are very attentive and interactive with the priorities he adopts," noting that "more than one head of state expressed the sincere desire to visit Iraq, in a clear manifestation of (productive diplomacy) adopted by this government, keen to stay away from formal relations that do not exceed the stage of taking souvenir photos."

    He stressed that "besides the presidents and leaders, there was a clear interest from research centers and institutions, which were keen to hold seminars; with the aim of listening to the convictions and policies pursued by the Prime Minister in politics, security, economy and foreign relations."

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