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  • CRYPTO REWARDS!

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soldier4freedom
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The White House has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates - $1.6 trillion for 2010 ... $1.3 trillion for 2011 ... and CONTINUING massive deficits for the ENTIRE decade. This is already sending shock waves of fear throughout the globe. It has prompted Moody's to issue a stern warning about America's credit rating. And it is raising the specter of a GLOBAL COLLAPSE in long-term sovereign debt.

Global investors are in attack mode. They're scanning the globe for the weakest links - the countries with the biggest deficits - and they are DUMPING that country's assets. First they attacked Greece. Then they attacked Portugal and Spain. Inevitably, they will ALSO unleash their fury on the one country in the world with the biggest deficits of all: The United States of America. Despite vague vows by the Eurozone countries to rescue Greece, the underlying problem of massive deficits remains.

An unprecedented CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE among U.S. taxpayers and investors. For the first time in recent memory, millions of U.S. citizens are taking to the streets in protest - OPENLY REBELLING against Washington!

They're incensed that Washington is spending trillions of dollars to bail out greedy, incompetent and corrupt bankers, brokers and CEOs - essentially giving them the license to steal from us - yet AGAIN! They're livid that Washington is financing this spending binge AT THEIR EXPENSE. And they're fighting mad at losses totaling $22 TRILLION that Washington and Wall Street caused for everyday Americans in the Tech Wreck, during the Great Recession, and with the Housing Bust.

All this supports the tenacity in holding inverse ETFs. And it stands as a stark warning of what may be coming to financial markets later this year.

Right now, though, even in the midst of this drama, the stock market is content to follow its own, separate path and could CONTINUE to do so.

Last week the intermediate buying opportunity was taking shape in the stock market. Today we still have no evidence to question that conclusion as the S&P 500 trades in a narrow range.

Expect next week to bring a test of last week's low. But for now at least, all indicators keep showing that the decline of the past weeks is just a normal and healthy correction and not YET the start of a huge bear market wave. Historically, medium-term up trends, or cyclical bull markets within long-term or secular bear markets, have lasted a mean of 17 months and a median of 12 months.

The version of the McClellan Indicator show the advance-decline statistics of the NYSE cover a very large share of the U.S. stock market. The middle of this oscillator came back to -300 during the first part of the current correction ... a level last seen in November 2008 and March 2009. Last week's lower low in the indexes was not confirmed by the McClellan Oscillator, making it a higher low. This constitutes a positive divergence - a bullish indication. But this formation is a bit short to be treated as a valid turnaround signal, hence some caution is still warranted.

During the past few days, the oscillator made it back to the neutral zone, around the zero line. So the next few days, or at most two weeks, should be decisive. Either it shoots to the upside like it did in March, or it comes back down to form a more pronounced bottom. In the first case, you should be pressed to act quickly, dump any inverse ETF positions and get long in the market. In the second case, you should see a test of last week's lows or a slightly lower low, maybe a test of the rising 200-day moving average, which is currently at 1,023.

Complacency Is Gone

During December and the first weeks of January, stock market sentiment indicators showed pronounced complacency. However, bullish sentiment did not reach levels typically associated with important stock market highs. This configuration was and is just another argument that we have not yet seen the final highs of the medium-term up trend off the March 2009 lows.

The number of bullish advisors have receded during the three weeks ending February 5, down to 34.1%. Bears rose to 26.1% making for a bull-to-bear ratio of a low 1.31.

Other sentiment indicators show a similar picture ... the American Association of Individual Investors shows bears outnumbering bulls for three weeks. And the 10-day moving average of the CBOE put-call ratio rose to a relatively high reading of 0.95.

Obviously, this correction has done a lot to restore the wall of worry so characteristic of medium-term or cyclical upward trends. We may still need some more backing and digging to find the bottom, which I expect to develop in the next two weeks. This may turn out to be the last, short-term buying opportunity on the way to the final top of this medium-term, up trend.

What about Greece and Other PIIGS?

Greece is important, but not for trading the markets. It's important because it serves as a signpost to what is in the offing in the coming years and how politicians will handle the situation. We've all known for some time that there is a sovereign debt problem out there - not just in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain ... but also in Japan, the U.S., France, Germany, and nearly every other country on the planet. But as long as the bond market is playing along, this problem will not impact the stock market.

This debt problem will inevitably haunt us in the coming years. And the easiest political "solution" will be to keep kicking the can as long as possible. In so doing, the problem will not be solved but instead aggravated and postponed. The somewhat stronger countries in the EU will somehow take over some of the debt of the weaker ones. And in the U.S. the Federal Government will come to the rescue of over indebted states.

All of this will finally lead to a funding crisis, to a revolting bond market, and to rising interest rates. Then Helicopter Ben and his global peers will call upon the printing presses. And I'm convinced that they'll simply print their way out of this calamity. It's much easier than the bitter medicine of strong austerity programs. As you can see, it's not just the Greek population resisting and revolting a clear belt tightening ... it's the whole industrialized world.

Gold Is Showing Remarkable Strength

With the Dollar Index at 80 and Dollar Euro below 1.36, gold has shown remarkable strength. The market is oversold and the decline since the December high has the look of a normal correction. The 200-day moving average is rising, and prices have fallen short of testing this important support line currently at $1,021.

This correction may have already ended. There is a down trend line at $1,100. If gold breaks above this resistance line, you should add to your gold position.

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index has already tested its rising 200-day moving average. And it seems to be in a bottom-building process. Here, too, a buying opportunity is taking shape.

Since we have been talking about what to do when the IQD RVs.. just thought I would add to your anxieties... Looks like we're in this downturn economy for the long run. Don't get your self in debt any more than you are and push yourself for more discipline in your financial matters. That is all... Carry on soldiers !!!

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