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dvforumuser
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Posts posted by dvforumuser
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If GDP (mostly oil exports) grows faster than inflation then certainly its possible they will make up the difference by raising the exchange rate. But, would think that will occur whether they RD or not.I agree 100%. Future oil profits will lead to increasing the value of the dinar if they leave the RD off of the table. The question is how much and how quickly. At 2.5 MBD they are still having to borrow money to meet their budget. If they doubled that output then obviously they would be running a surplus every year. How much this would effect the IQD value and how quickly is what this thread is about.
Thanks for your thoughts.
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So now I'm not just confined to LOP Talk but am on mod review. I guess if I was "selling the RV" I wouldn't want me here either.
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Wow, this article has certainly gotten the GO-RV crowd excited!
I have said a billion times that they may or may not RD and I am here waiting to see if they will or not. I have said a billion times that if they dont then the value could rise slowly over a long period of time.
Exactly. The have "postponed" the RD. I don't see why, but an RD has always just been a connivence for Iraq. Its important for dinar investors as once it kicks in it makes an RV obviously impossible (for those that do not seem to understand that from just the basic economics).
The idea that they must either RD or RV is a false dichotomy. They do not have to do anything. Their economy is working with modest inflation and good growth. Eventually they certainly will do an RD but there is no particular hurry. Its too bad for the GO-RV'ers since now they can continue in their fantasy. Maybe the schedule will change again after Shabibi addresses parliament.
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I don't know that is the post that resulted in my confinement, but it does seem likely. Thanks for the comment.i read what got you stuck in here, and i must say i didnt see anything wrong with it, in fact your def of an rd was 100% correct, unfortunately i cant get someone out of the lopster section.
even though we disagree on this whole investment, i dont think you did anything rude, or what would seem to be trouble starting.
Thanks!May be is because your comments and post are openning people eyes to see the other side of this investment.
I really respect your point of view.
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Thanks. Given that my profile now shows my group as "lopster" instead of "member", I don't think logout/in is going to help! (but thanks for the thought!Several times I have come to the forum to be told I could not respond, didn't have permission or some such thing. Usually, when I click to close, then I can click to open, since DV is an icon on my desktop now. But sometimes, and it happened a couple of times every day the past five days or so, the system does not recognize me and won't let me reply or post.
But ... when I look, I see I am no longer logged in. Once I log in again, as if I had clicked to log out, which I don't, then it is all okay again. Everything works. You might consider giving that a try when you are denied access. Just log in from scratch again and see if that works.
smee2
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Why? Do most of the things you talk about with folks involve active investments for you? I would presume not. I'd guess like most everyone its just a wide range of stuff you are interested in. What is it about the dinar investment that makes you (and many others) exclude it from this general rule? I find the whole thing an interesting phenomenon.If you still own some dinar then you should drop by once awhile. If you sold all you dinar then I think u should concentrate on something else. No disrespect, just my two cents. Peace
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No message as to why, or even that it was done. I just noticed everywhere except LOP Talk I no longer have permission to reply, or post or start new topics etc. I don't think I've been particularly controversial in my posts, or at least no more so now then when I singed up a couple of months ago. I did post a correction to the definition of an RD from Adam's chat this morning. Oh well, I guess you don't get to find these things out. It is the prerogative of the sites owners, so such is life.
In any case, not being able to actively participate here, I likely won't be here much from now on. But, will still try and drop by now and then. Oh well.
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What makes you so afraid of hearing anything other than a go-RV viewpoint that you resort to this sort of nonsense?So whats the title of your book? 'I Don't Drink Dinar Koolaid Anymore', 'How I Escaped from the Dinar Moonies', 'Dinar Speculation, Myth or Truth or Guru JuJu', or 'Facing Reality On the Iraqi RV' 'Doritoes Saved Me From Dinar'
I'm not responsible for your limited imagination. I am in front of a computer a lot (I'm a programmer) so its easy to take a quick look. I was in it for about 11 months, and no I am certain I made a good choice by getting out when I did. The only better choice would have been to not get in, but back then the Koolaid tasted soooo good.Just can't imagine wasting time here if you don't see in it.. Must not have much to do or maybe you DO believe and curious to see if maybe you made a mistake by getting out. Doesnt look like you were in very long.
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[A[Adam Montana] RD: ReDenomination. This is where they take the current notes (250, 5000, 25000, etc) and add new denominations (like 1,5,10, etc). This is a 0 gain and 0 loss situation without the addition of a change in value.
[Adam Montana] L OP: In a bunny-ear, they simply ignore a specific amount of 0's. If they chop all three 0's off, then a 25,000IQD note is now worth 25. Basically, us investors would just about break even at this point, unless you've held your dinar for a long period of time.
I think this is missing a rather key point. A ReDenomination ALWAYS involves the issuing of a new and distinct currency with its own exchange rate and symbol. It is most emphatically not the addition of lower denominations into the existing currency. The old and new currencies have a fixed exchange rate between each other. Often though not always, that is 1000:1 . Both new and old rates can continue to go up or down together relative to other currencies. If this occurs in Iraq (as I think it will) that would mean a new-dinar 25 would be exchanged for an IQD 25,000 .
As far as I know a LOP is exactly an RD, and thus so is a bunny ear if its the same as a LOP. I never have heard where the term "bunny ear" comes from, does anyone know?
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There are only two ways currency exchange rates are set. 1 by the central bank pegging it to a particular value as Iraq is doing, or 2 it being freely traded and hence its value is set by whatever traders, banks, etc will pay for it as occurs with the USD. If Iraq continues to peg then they have to have the foreign exchange to back it up, which they do now with a little to spare, so no way can they increase its exchange rate more than that little bit. If they let it float, then they don't get to set the rate and it might well go down and at least might fluctuate quite a bit which is very bad for their economy.i personally wonder why some people think if iraq gets their currency revalued by world community and imf acceptance .. that they wouldnt have enough money to do so ....
when someone trades their dinars back to iraq .. iraq doesnt lose a red cent ...what they get in return is their dinar which is worth exactly what they just paid in the trade ...so they lost nothing .. the dinars they just got are worth every penny they just gave to the other person...if iraq has a currency that is globally accepted and traded .. they can take those dinars they just got in the trade and buy any currency they choose ..and replenish their foriegn reserves .. getting ready for the next transactions ...
Except for oil, you pay for goods in the currency of origin, so Iraq first has to exchange dinars for Euros or Dollars or Yen etc. But the only thing those other countries want to buy from Iraq is oil, which is paid for in dollars not dinars. Basically they need to run their economy (and the national budget) from the money coming in from oil and having dinars be worth more does not change that.some think if they rv at a dollar .. iraq would spend all its money buying back its currency and then it wouldnt have nothing .. yes they would have their currency ..it will be worth what they just bought it for ..they could use it to buy air craft .. ships .. trains ... steel .. all kinds of raw materials .. and as they increase their holdings the country gets richer and richer .. .. why is this so hard to understand ?
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Then instead of merely asserting that what you say is true, you should be able to easily make a good case for it, but you have not even attempted to do so. All you did was compare Obama to Hitler, and NO ONE when reading that was thinking "oh that must be a reference to some similarity of pre-war political agenda". So my criticism of your rhetoric remains valid even IF your assertion above is true, which is doubtful in the extreme.I minored in history. Perhaps you need to look into Hitlers polical agendas and law implementation pre WW2...
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I was invested, I am not anymore. I still find the topic, the whole myth mechanism and thinking, interesting. e.g.: Why is it that when someone disagrees with you, your reaction is to question their motives for participating in the discussion?Then why are you here?
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Rather a safe prediction given that the RV is a myth in the first place.If osamabama gets 4 more years we will never see the RV............ Just saying...
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"make them feel bad"? Did you read the post of mine you quoted? I specifically said I was just curios and not trying to give them a hard time. Real estate is quite different where ever sale is different, here dinars are dinars are dinars. So I found it a bit surprising that they have managed to buy so low, that's all. No big deal.This is a business offer. Why do you think they have to match anyone's rate? If no one wants to sale at that price they have several choices. Ignore the offer. Take the offer. Offer an alternative price and negotiate. I don't get it at all why you feel the need to try to make them feel bad for making an offer. I make offers all the time on real estate and it doesn't have to match anyone else's offer. Its called business!
Dealers take to long to react. Once IQD is verified legitimate we can PayPal you right away.
Contact us with your IQD FOR SALE at *******@aol.com
We are always bidding on Dinar at EBay, 24/7
Mike
Thanks for the info Mike. (I sold all mine for an average of about $1010/M net after figuring in shipping, paypal & ebay fees etc).
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It isn't Obama, or the bankers, or the Rothschilds, or Malaki, or any government that are putting one over on you, its the dealers and pumpers that started and propagate the RV myth in the first place. No grand conspiracy theories are needed to explain why the global currency reset including the Iraqi RV has not occurred, as they are inventions to get us to buy something for more than it is worth and will never occur!!
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So you're not even matching the CBI rate, let alone the dealer rate (850-900) let alone the e-bay, or dinarvets common rate of $1000/M. Why would you expect anyone to take you up on $800/M given the available alternatives? (just curious, not trying to give you a hard time).Looking to Buy 3 to 5 million, please contact us at ********@aol.com if you need money now. Mike
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Oh good grief. If you don't like Obama's policies of course you are free to express your views. But calling him a "mini-Hitler"? Either you are totally ignorant of history or just don't care at all about facts, or both. This sort of rhetoric only obscures facts, makes honest debate even harder and promotes factionalism.The US already has its own power hungry mini Hitler in office. Seems like we are pretty good at appointing dictators lately!
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So interacting with you is by your own definition a waste of time? Thanks for letting me know.You sold out and yet here you are wasting your time following an investment that you no longer hold or believe in. Interesting. Very, very, very unlikely, but interesting.
By the way I am not here following the investment. That one can do at CBI.IQ . I'm here following and interacting with the investors.
Most people posting on internet forums do so merely from an interest in the subject. Somehow you seem to think for subjects related to the dinar that idea must be false. I think my posting level has dropped since I sold my last dinar, but my interest in the subject remains, this I find it interesting to chat with folks about it.
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I would expect official announcements with pictures of the bills and clear (at least in Arabic) explanations of exactly how it will occur (just like has occurred elsewhere) before the new currency is actually available. And I'm not saying you meant them to be simultaneous, but only that the more certain the RD becomes in the minds of investors, the lower the price of dinars will go, down to the base CBI exchange rate.If / Once they announce the RD AND release the smaller bills into circulation, I'm outta here!!!
So I would expect a big drop and lots of selling when the RD is formally announced (they claim in Sept) despite the new currency not being available yet. Even if they RV up 16% or 20% or so during the co-exixtence period, such that the new-dinar will be at $1 even, or a little above, it is unlikely that you will actually get that in exchange. Though you can get the equivalent now (i.e. 1000 IQD per $1 USD). If no RV occurs at all so the new-dinar is at 0.86 USD, then you'll only be able to get that minus the spread. The spread for the new-dinar, presumably available from major banks at this point, might not be that big. But IQD might still only be exchangable at dealers where the spread, at least in the past, has been huge. So you have to weight the odds of those events (and, if you think it possible a larger let alone huge RV) with their outcome, to see if you want to stay.
My analysis was
RD: certain
RV to put new-dinar at $1 USD (i.e. todays IQD rate of $1000/M), unlikley
RV enough over $1 to allow me to get at least $1.20 (i.e. break even) very very unlikely
thus I sold out now at $1000/M IQD despite having bought at $1200/M .
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Just go to cbi.iq .Show me an ACCURATE value of IRAQI dinar in circulation? Accurate or reliable source...
As long as the CBI's figures on the money supply and reserves are anywhere close to reality that is plenty close enough to be sure that a 0.10 or greater RV can not occur. Maybe instead of $60B in reserves they have $120B, but $6T let alone $60T? Not a chance. Likewise maybe M2 is only 50T dinar instead of 72T dinar as they say, or maybe its only 20T dinar, but is it only 60B dinar? No way. Iraq's money supply is so big and their reserves so small that we don't have to know those numbers particularly accurately to know a huge RV (e.g. a 100x or 10,000% RV to 0.10 or greater) can not occur.Well there goes that theory you just put out. Maybe we can try to use the auctions.. but even that might not tell the real story.
Speculation on your numbers is just speculation. We will see what they do but I hope what you think is an assessment of their monitary assets is wrong. I am actually betting on it. Peace .
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Exactly. The article is talking about the RD happening in 2013. In Sept it will be formally announced with the bills shown and the formal education campaign (as opposed to all these articles) will commence so come Jan the Iraqi's will know whats what wrt the new currency. So no the RV won't be delayed as just won't happen at all.Proof of the RD by Sept, IMO, and by Jan we will see the replacement notes. The CBI and GOI and that point will have given us clear proof for over a year since June 30th 2011 that it has always been their intention. Liability covered based on a year of clear notification.
It's all part of the educational campaign, I know it's hard to get those crazy Iraqis to believe the CBI and stop stuffing their mattresses with hard currency, but the CBI is doing their best.-
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All of my dinars have been sold.Hello,
I am interested in approximately 5mil. Can you ship to Colorado via USPS insured? Would you accept a paypal transaction? Do offer any type of discount to Military members such a myself? Would you be willing to send a picture of the notes, front and back for validation?
Thank you so much for your time. I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Have a great day.
-Sgt Searcy
US Army
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You're not actually considering the possibility that this BS is correct are you? .... edit: I see you have already responded that you were just joking. good!Monday should tell us if these Gurus are full of it or we do cash in.
They have no intel as there IS no intel There is just the group at the CBI that makes such decisions, and everyone else. No one gets a heads-up on an upcoming rate change. There is no back room computer work that has to go on to accept a new rate, nor any global rate system in the first place. Exchange rates flow around the world just like prices on gold or apples.
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Right, this is just what the sort of thing the Dinar dealers want to be circulating.
A global currency reset, that was supposed to be kept secret, yea that makes sense. WIth all the people that would have to know about it, secrecy would be impossible.
Basing this new world currency on a currency from a war torn country with ~$70B in total reserves and a GDP of maybe ~$100B, yea that also makes no sense at all.
And the kicker, Bill Gates providing the secret back door, but the white hats riding to the rescue! What a farce! New rates would not require new software and all banks do not run the same software. The whole idea of a "back door" in this context makes no sense, and I say this from the experience of being systems programmer for 37 years.
This shouldn't even be in the rumors section, but the pure fantasy section along with Amazon Women on the Moon (I hear they use dinars there too!!).
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The News We Have Been Waiting For
in LOPster tank
Posted
So is it the logistical issues you are concerned about? Or is there some other reason you think an RD would inhibit long term appreciation of the (new) dinar?