|
lobo
-
Posts
7 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Forums
Calendar
Store
Musicbox
Posts posted by lobo
-
-
The site Al-Jazeera (middle east news), has a report that states that is going to take a few more days for the President to tell Maliki to form a new goverment. Then he has 30 days to do so. I think that since they have not demonstrated any hurry until now, that this issue might well extened untill 2011.
-
22
-
33
-
-
This country has been out of CH 7 for a while just not formally. Countries under Chapter 7 don't have ships come into ports to trade goods.
They'll have every right any sovereign country has except the DFI funds continue to be protected. This is what has been stated on these forums for quite a while.
I respect your opinion, but think, really, what nation is willing to "risk" 'it's money making deals with an unpredictable country like Irak? I personally think that Irak is as steady as "San Andreas Fault". Irak does'nt even control 'itself let alone the money in it's bank. There is too much religious interest involved, and believe me everyone in Irak (political/religious leaders), know the pie is big and want it all. Those people don't care who invested in what, when yhey decide to press the button, they will do it but only thinkig what's best for them and not for us investors. I wouldn't doubt that if they say the #$%& with everybody and change the currency again. Have they given so far signals that they are willing to help anybody? I think not
-
Ratatap,
I humbly thank you for your kind words. Now let's discuss:
1. I agree our government does not disclose anything close to the truth on many occasions. However, you cannot lie to the world economy because they know the truth! Hence the USD is teetering at near an all time low.
2. We do know for a fact, I am going to regret making that statement, that there are 1.3 trillion dollars in circulation (M1) for the USA. We have not printed lower denominations that have not been released as Iraq has.
3. I think the RV is already paid for:
A. The current valuation of oil, gas and developmental contracts is not added to the currency valuation.
B. The demand for the Dinar is untraceable. No seller will divulge the amount they have sold. No Governments that hold Dinar have disclosed said transactions. Gold reserves, which Iraq has pantheons of have not been added to the valuation. Come on gold alone has risen almost $1000.00 an ounce since 2003 and Iraq has untold amounts in reserve unlike the gool ole USA!
C. The policy making and decision process of Iraq is a total enigma compared to the US. At least we KNOW they are lying! LOL
Now to point TWO of your question:
I believe the Dinar can hold a $3.00+ RV. I personally don't believe there are 25 trillion Dinar in circulation as I believe they are including the printed and uncirculated denominations in this query.
I also believe they will RV at or below 1 USD. Personally I have chosen the .86 rate. My reasoning behind this is that Iraq wants to pay off the RV, out of country, with funds that would have been used to pay the debts they incurred that have been forgiven, ie Paris Group, USA, China etc. To them this is money in the bank. They will also use the funds garnered from the actual purchase of Dinar the last 7 years. Again this is an unknown amount as it is not disclosed. As money out of country is gathered and destroyed I TRULY BELIEVE we will find Iraq has reduced their float of dinar to around 25-30 billion also adding weight to the valuation. The sneaky thing is this........
In my own little insignificant personal opinion this is what will happen. The RV will hit at around .86. There will be a time period for the exchange or cash out. Once the exchange/cash out is finalized Iraq will announce they have reduced their float to 25-30 billion and simultaneously announce another rate close to the Kuwaiti rate. This is justifiable on all accounts. Iraq honors the current holders, who they know are out to make a buck, and uses said holders to vault their currency to one of the most expensive in the world.
Thank you again for your kind word's of encouragement!
You said it my man. I also believe that they will RV for less than 1.00, that way they can recover the large denominations and introduce the small ones. Hey, I don't care what many say that they will hold on to their dinars for a second or third "higher" RV, we all know that the way things have happened, we might not get a second window for exchange, and probably have to settle for what they offer initially. I personally believe that we can no longer trust that Iraq will do things to benefit everybody.
-
1
-
-
In my research of the Dinar I have done my best to equate it to comparable currencies in the region. This gives me, personally, a better feel of what to expect from my investment and a rational outlook on the coming RV.
There are some in this realm that have thrown out numbers from .10 all the way to 10.00 plus USD. They all have what appears to be some realistic backing to their valuation. I am going to, in my own personal opinion, attempt to give you some rational and realistic revaluation numbers to think about.
First and foremost, Iraq went from a reasonable amount of exchangeable currency, pre-invasion, of around 25 billion Dinar in circulation. After the US attack and invasion Iraq sent into a tailspin economically. With the release of the new DeLarue Dinar Iraq, under chapter 7 and other sanctions, found themselves at an economic impasse.
What we have no way of knowing, or ever finding out, is the current number given of 25 trillion Dinar in existence, whether or not this includes the actual (M1), currency in distribution, or whether or not the smaller denominations are included, but withheld from the public. I know this seems mentally confusing but hold on for a minute and let me explain. If Iraq, with the UN and IMF, had DeLarue print a total of 25 trillion in Dinar then that would give us a realistic (M1) number to deal with. If on the other hand Iraq, the UN and IMF, had a total of 25 trillion of large denomination bills printed, with the smaller denominations on hold, then we have unlimited expectations as to the RV. I personally have a hard time believing Iraq, the UN and IMF had DeLarue print a total of over 50 trillion in script!
Surrounding countries have in the neighborhood of 25 billion scripts of exchange on the market. Kuwait has 25,182,500,000.00 Dinar on the market. Iraq has 25,000,000,000,000.00. This has a quantative effect on the actual market and exchange value of the currency. Let me explain:
Kuwait has approximately 88 billion dollars in (M1). This is actual money converted to the USD in cash value exchanged and traded daily. Iraq has only 20 billion in (M1) cash traded and exchanged on a daily basis. Iraq has an exponentially greater amount of oil reserves and natural resources than Kuwait!
Kuwait trades it's currency at an approximate measure of 50% of its 2009 GDP which was 167.9 billion USD.
Iraqi’s GDP is unknown,as it is under sanctions, but we do know they move 1.92 million barrels of oil daily which at $50.00 a barrel, a conservative number equates to 34,560,000,000.00 a year. Gold reserves and exchanges in Iraq are also known to be an additional 46.8 billion: link http://www.gfmag.com/gdp-data-country-reports/252-iraq-gdp-country-report.html. This gives Iraq a reasonable exchange rate of that close to Kuwait if the amount of Dinar is reduced!
This brings us to the great dilemma; Does Iraq truly have 25 trillion Dinar in circulation (M1) or does this include the unreleased lower denominations? Did DeLarue print 25 trillion in large denomination bills only? Did DeLarue print 25 trillion in total script for the nation of Iraq and only 15 trillion or so have been released?
Everything surrounding Iraq has been shrouded in lost translations and secrecy. Each and every day we strive to understand the press releases and information coming from this nation.
In order to have a true RV we must know the amount of money in circulation (M1) in order to have a grasp of its true valuation! Iraq is a resource wealthy nation that can easily have a currency trading at a $2.00 to $3.00 USD exchange rate. This can only occur however if the amount of Dinar on the international market equals 25 billion or less.
We, in the know, have heard that the lower denominations are being possibly brought into circulation. If this is true, and the upper denominations are being removed, this would bring about a realistic RV in the neighborhood of above $3.00 USD!!!
Being the conservative investor I am I still think the RV will come in around .86. My reasoning on this is that there will be a raising of the rate over a period of months to the realistic valuation. Iraq, the UN and IMF, as well as the world bankers and market makers know that the vast majority of Dinar holders will exchange at the lowest denomination. This will allow for growth and a limited disbursement at the initial RV rate.
I post this knowing it will be picked apart by those with degrees in economics and those with supposed inside information. I personally do not have a degree in economics or banking but I have operated for the last 25 years as an entrepreneur and have been blessed to run several multi million dollar companies and organizations. This is common sense and market rationality in my personal opinion.
The news is good!! There is substantial reason to believe we shall see an RV between .86 and 3.00 soon and very soon!!
Peace, Out!!
I hope your right. My believe is that they will come out low first ( .25-1.00) to lure out the big currency with a lot of 000, and then, maybe in a year hit it big for the patient ones. So I recommend to save some for better times and you'll see I was right.
-
pretty interesting. I hope it comes out soon. I've been in this since 2008, and believe me, I think within 6 months the button will be pressed
-
Not trying to be Debbie Downer. I found this article and thought that I would share it so people don't get their hopes up to high for Sunday. I hope I am wrong because I just got through doing the bills:(!
Leaders of political bloc have not reached agreement yet
27/10/2010 22:23:00
Baghdad (NINA) – In their meeting held at the house of the Chief Kurdish negotiator, Rowsch Shaways, leaders of political blocs agreed to hold another meeting on Sunday.
Informed source said that the meeting did not discuss major office distribution, only general issues have been discussed.
In a press conference at the end of the meeting, Shaways said, “The blocs discussed some important issues related to authorities and how the government on national partnership is to be formed as well the authority of the National Council of Strategic Polices, which is intended to be formed in the next government.”
He added, “Next meeting will continue discussing these issues and the agenda for political leaders’ meeting, called for by Barazani.”
Rowsch Shaways and Fouad Massoum, from Kurdish blocs, Hassan al-Sinaid and Khalid al-Atiya, from the National Alliance, Baha al-Araji and Nassar al-Rubai’e, from the Sadrist Trend, Jawad Bulani, from Iraq Unit, Rafi’ al-Essawi and Salman al-Jumaili, from Iraqiya Alliance, Mohammed Tuma, from Fadheela Party and Mohammed al-Hasimi, From the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, as well as other leaders attended the meeting. / End.
Link
http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=FEFDFI
Can we believe everything they say that "will happen"?
-
1
-
1
-
RV not on monday
in Dinar Rumors
Posted
I second that. It's not being negative, I just see too many things that haven't been done for the RV to happen, and since we all know at the speed they move, we have to conclude that it's near but I beleive at the start of 2011. If I'm wrong, well, how many have been so far?