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20MillionDinar
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Posts posted by 20MillionDinar
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I realize this isn't the place for this, but I have to ask 20Mil something.
20Mil, with the recent direct currency trade agreement between China and Japan, I could see the JPY strengthening, but I can only see the USD getting hurt, and PM's benefiting. Can you tell me why you see a good year for the USD?
Not looking to argue, just curious, as my profession is not currency trading. I buy and sell gold and silver (among other things) for a living.
He MrFnHappy,
The biggest reason is because of the problems in the Eurozone. When major problems occur, sentiment becomes what is known as "risk off." This means money moves from "risky" investment vehicles such as stock markets and other emerging market currencies and looks for safety in the USD and the JPY.
Japan experienced their first trade deficit in 20 years last year in 2011, which means, they are hoping to have a weaker currency. This would really help their exports, hopefully give them a trade surplus, which in turn is good for their markets. BUT, with things the way they are in Europe it is risk off. The BOJ can intervene, and has done so in the past, but the effects wear off within a few weeks at the most. Also, the BOJ is nowhere even close to the SNB so they aren't able to suppress the Yen for the long term like the Swiss National Bank can. They've tried, but it doesn't work.
China has been showing signs of weakening, if I'm not mistaken they have cut interest rates twice in just the past few months, and have gone through with some stimulus plans. The currency trade agreement is one thing, but overall market sentiment trumps anything else.
Hope that made sense. If you have any other questions I will do my best to answer them to the best of my ability.
I really like trading Gold, but it's been a little tricky this year. Do you mainly deal with physical or do you trade through a brokerage firm? Just a heads up, since you are dealing with Gold you should keep the following number in mind: $1,520. If this number is broken, Gold will fall into the abyss...
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20Million, now I understand you a lot better. You have been fairly quiet the past few months.
The Swiss Franc was around 1 USD, then went up to $1.40 last August/Sept and is back down to 1 USD. You're probably aware but in Europe the Franc and Norwegian Krone are the strong and reliable currencies at the moment.
I've been quiet around here because nobody wants to hear common sense or anything about how economics work. This site has really turned into a Conspiracy Theory / Hopes & Dreams forum. Just got a little irritated I guess. I mainly "hang out" at a particular thread over at ForexFactorydotcom
Yes you're right. The Franc is being suppressed by the SNB as they need a lower valued currency for exports. Luckily for them the SNB is big enough to be able to "peg" it to the Euro, or at least very close to it. If it was up to the market, the Franc would go right back up... The Norwegian Krone has actually been under a lot of pressure lately too though. The Swedish Krone is holding up the best out of all of the European currencies as of right now.
This will be the year of the US Dollar! And the yen too, even though the BOJ doesn't want a strong yen, it is the biggest safe haven currency so when times get tough, the tough, go to USD and JPY!
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My favorites pairs are the VND/IQD
Unless they redenominate and/or increase the value gradually, the IQD is a flatline.
Most pairs move in waves, the IQD wave looks like this: ___________________________________________________________________________
By the way, I am letting everybody know right now with about 90%-95% certainty that the DOW and S&P500 will be heading down for the next 4 months or so.
The USD will be heading to new 2,3, even 4 year highs this year. This means that AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD, and the CAD will all be going DOWN!
Oil will be heading down to roughly $60 per barrel within the coming months.
Gold should move down with everything as well, however, it has been acting kind of funny this year. But I won't be surprised one bit to see Gold at $1,200 an ounce by November of this year.
**Bottom Line: If you are holding US equities, I would sell out now, then get in again once it hits the bottom, if you choose to do so. This is my crystal ball forecast
But in all seriousness, get out while you have a chance. Markets move in cycles, and right now, markets are going down and the USD is headed up, this should last until later this year.-
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20Million, thanks for the input. I see that Caz has already jumped on you.
I am assuming that you have been trading currencies for a few years now. You have experience. If you want to completely discredit yourself, just tell them that you have a degree that jumpstarted you into this career.
If I understand you correctly, it does not matter what the government of Iraq does. Neither CBI, Maliki, Shabibi, Talabani, IMF, WTO, World Banking & Finance Summit 2012, UNSC Chapter 7, Erbil, HCL or any other organization from the UN, OPEC, the Middle East, NATO, the USA, etc.
BTW, did you track the Swiss Franc last year? That was a nice ride, huh?
Hey Jackster,
Yea it is understandable, some people just don't want their dreams of becoming rich slashed by logic and reality.
Well, to a certain extent. Any Central Bank's main goal is to keep inflation in check, even if they don't come out and directly say it most CB's try to keep inflation at or around 2%. To do this, they use the monetary tools at their disposal, contractionary and expansionary policy. In Iraq's case, they have been using more "expansionary" monetary policies by printing more and more Dinar. Ultimately the value of the IQD is up to the CBI, period. The biggest problem with a significant overnight RV is that it goes against everything a Central Bank stands for as a CB's main goal is to keep inflation in check, they can't do this if 100,000% increases or decreases hit their currency instantaneous! It will crash their currency!
Central banks and monetary policy go hand-in-hand, so you can't talk about one without talking about the other. While some of these mandates and goals are shared by the different central banks. Central banks have their own unique set of goals brought on by their distinctive economies. Ultimately, monetary policy boils down to promoting and maintaining price stability and economic growth.
To achieve their goals, central banks use monetary policy mainly to control the following:
- *the interest rates tied to the cost of money,
- *the rise in inflation,
- *the money supply,
- *reserve requirements over banks,
- *discount window lending to commercial banks
Types of Monetary Policy:
Monetary policy can be referred to in a couple different ways. Contractionary or restrictive monetary policy takes place if it reduces the size of the money supply. It can also occur with the raising of interest rates. The idea here is to slow economic growth with the high interest rates. Borrowing money becomes harder and more expensive, which reduces spending and investment by both consumers and businesses.
Expansionary monetary policy, on the other hand, expands or increases the money supply, or decreases the interest rate. The cost of borrowing money goes down in hopes that spending and investment will go up. Accommodative monetary policy aims to create economic growth by lowering the interest rate, whereas tight monetary policy is set to reduce inflation or restrain economic growth by raising interest rates.
Finally, neutral monetary policy intends to neither create growth nor fight inflation.
The important thing to remember about inflation is that central banks usually have an inflation target in mind, say 2%. They might not come out and say it specifically, but their monetary policies all operate and focus on reaching this comfort zone. They know that some inflation is a good thing, but out-of-control inflation can remove the confidence people have in their economy, their job, and ultimately, their money. By having target inflation levels, central banks help market participants better understand how they (the central bankers) will deal with the current economic landscape.
Let's take a look at an example.
Back in January of 2010, inflation in the U.K. shot up to 3.5% from 2.9% in just one month. With a target inflation rate of 2%, the new 3.5% rate was well above the Bank of England's comfort zone. Mervyn King, the governor of the BOE, followed up the report by reassuring people that temporary factors caused the sudden jump, and that the current inflation rate would fall in the near term with minimal action from the BOE. Whether or not his statements turned out to be true is not the point here. We just want to show that the market is in a better place when it knows why the central bank does or doesn't do something in relation to its target interest rate.
Simply put, traders like stability.
Central banks like stability.
Economies like stability. Knowing that inflation targets exist will help a trader to understand why a central bank does what it does.
A currency's interest rate is probably the biggest factor in determining the perceived value of a currency. So knowing how a country's central bank sets its monetary policy, such as interest rate decisions, is a crucial thing to wrap your head around.
One of the biggest influences on a central bank's interest rate decision is price stability, or "inflation". Inflation is a steady increase in the prices of goods and services. Inflation is the reason why your parents or your parents' parents paid a nickel for a soda pop in the 1920's, but now people pay twenty times more for the same product. It's generally accepted that moderate inflation comes with economic growth.
*However, too much inflation can harm an economy and that's why central banks are always keeping a watchful eye on inflation-related economic indicators, such as the CPI and PCE.
I have been following the financial markets for a few years now, but only started Live trading in October of last year. About 2 months ago I went full time and now I work from the comfort of my home. This business gives me plenty of free time and the ability to make basically as much as I want to. I will definitely trade currency and commodities until there is no such thing as Capitalism. **Or until this new global financial system everybody is talking about comes into play...
Swiss Franc: I did not get on that ride last year. I personally don't trade the CHF because one never knows when the SNB will drop their peg. There are plenty other currencies and commodities to choose from and I stick with what I know best. Mainly the AUD/USD, EUR/USD, Gold, Oil, and the DOW. But my favorites are the Japanese cross currency pairs especially AUD/JPY!
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Righttttttttttttt. I wish i knew half as much as the gang down here thought they knew,then I would be 10 times as smart as they claim to be. The only ones that have any economical background or knowledge,please......................even you must bore yourself at times. My statement was used as example of possibilty of falsehoods and use it as exact,comical. Ya'll have a great evening this has been way too much entertainment for one day.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh the currency expert. Exactly how much did you invest in the dinar after researching it? And we should listen to you why?
I didn't come here to argue, just stating how my business works. I already explained when and why I got invested, circumstances change and Iraq did not keep doing what they were doing when I got in. They stopped increasing the rate and kept printing more and more Dinar... I got in when it was 1450:1 and within 2 years it was down to 1170:1. Problem is, they stopped increasing the value for 3 straight years. If they had kept increasing the rate at 3-5 dinars per day we would have had our 1:1 rate by now!
**I stated you don't have to believe me. By the way, for somebody who runs 10 businesses you sure have a lot of spare time to type on this forum all day long... Anyways, I was just sharing information that pertains to currencies with anybody who is interested. If you have a problem with that then move on to the next post.
What's up with your hostility Caz? Somebody piss in your wheaties?
By the way, I am not a currency expert. "I know that I know nothing." Sōkrátēs
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I dont want to speak for Sanss,but if your looking for links or proof that gov's lie or decieve then i think its a dark day in mudville. You can go back as far in time as you would like or just listen to ANY of todays. I would'nt think this point would be debateable.......................but I could be wrong. By the way I don't think anyone is stating that what Iraq say's is not true but we are saying the possibilty is there.
Wow! This course sure has been going on for quite some time now...
I want to chime in with my 2 cents if that's ok with you folks? OK, I trade currency as a full time job and I need to point out a few key points. First of all, it doesn't matter if governments are "fudging" their numbers, we all know they do in one way or another. What matters is how the market perceives these numbers. For example: The US unemployment "claims" forecast for this coming week are 379k. http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php Depending on if the "actual" numbers that are stated by the "news / media" will determine the price action. Like I said, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THEY ARE LYING, it only matters how the market perceives the numbers.
Currencies and markets don't really care if a government is lying, they react off of the NEWS, period.
**When it comes to the IQD the numbers that are stated are the numbers that matter. Even if they have less currency in circulation then is stated, it won't matter due to the fact that the market is based off of stated numbers. This is why I choose to go off of the numbers, because this is how you win or lose in the world markets. We can't get mad and say "well you're lying about your numbers... I'm not gonna play anymore until you get your facts straight!" No! You would never be able to participate in the world markets if you are looking for absolute truth.
So we have "True" numbers which don't matter one bit! Then we have forecast, and "actual" numbers which all play a part in currencies and major indices moving up or down. You can choose to play the game, or sit on the side lines and complain about how the "media" is lying. I know they're lying, but that won't make me any money by complaining about it or pointing it out.
I forgot to mention in my previous post, due to the fact that the IQD is not traded on the FOREX the ONLY numbers that we can go off of are the CBI's numbers.
NOTHING affects the rate of the IQD: Unemployment rate doesn't matter, bombings, natural disasters, new bills/laws that are passed, CPI, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales, Bond Auctions, New Loans, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Press Conferences, etc... Nothing!
All of the above mentioned items (which normally move markets up and down) do not matter in Iraq's case as they are more or less "pegged" to the USD.
The only thing that matters in Iraq's case is:
1) *"Stated" GDP
2) *"Stated" M1 & M2 Money Supply
3) *"Stated" Inflation
Nothing else will determine the value of the IQD at this time! I'm not telling anybody to believe me or not, but I deal with currencies every day of the week and have learned how to profit from the ups and downs that each currency experiences on a daily basis.
*Stated doesn't mean it is TRUE, it is what the market has priced in due to the fact that the numbers that are stated are the numbers that determine price and value of a currency.
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The Department of uneducation has succeeded.
We are screwed..
Looks like they've also succeeded with you DiveMaster.... That's not a Wal-Mart sign, that's a Best Buy sign. Some people can't count, and others can't read! Just saying...
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If I was the author of the original post I would be upset that you stole it and DIDN'T give credit were credit was due! UNLESS....it helped to promote Dinar sales all over the web which seems to be the biggest reason for posting flat out LIES on these public forums! This stuff you posted was hypothetical nonsense which holds no water.
**I am disgusted by the lies that get thrown around here by people like you. I wish Adam felt the same way, because this gives a BAD name to the Dinar "investment" and this crap should be censored! It is flat out LIES! You can say this is how you wish the world worked, or how it should work, but this is NOT how things work in the current financial system. On top of that, you ave no PROOF that things will change, just a bunch of hopium!!!!!! Lay off the weed man...
It seems that you would rather post LIES and have people LIKE YOU then to post the truth...SERIOULSY!
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Easy,
Your original post was PLAGIARISM at its finest. It seems to me that you copy/pasted that post strictly for people to "compliment" you for what was said. It wasn't yours! And you didn't bother letting people know that it wasn't your work...
WHY???
I have started to see how you operate, it seems all you care about is making sure people at DV LIKE YOU instead of giving the facts. The post you stole was hypothetical at best yet you get praised for it...
You're lucky that your followers are people off the street with no Financial IQ whatsoever AND are hoping to get rich from the IQD, meaning, as long as you steal oops I mean post "hopium" you will be praised. Its not right Easy and you know it! But I guess you don't care, considering the fact that you think HYIPs are investments and your "so called" profits are other peoples losses...
Plagiarism and stealing...do you have any shame?
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I never said that I don't believe in God. What I said was that God isn't germane to this discussion. If you're discussing physics does it matter whether there's a god or not? Gravity works the same whether we were created or whether we weren't. If you're discussing chemistry does God's will change the formula for methane? It's not that God isn't important. It's just that in the context of discussing a discipline like economics I don't see the relevance. A country with a GDP of $120 billion can't support a monetary base of $30 trillion +, god or no god. That's not arrogance. It's just common sense.
Its unfortunate, but this site has turned into a pit of trash now filled with conspiracy theories which certain people have created in order to spin a massive web of lies and deceit solely to target the Iraq RV "market." The less knowledgeable hang onto every line like it is gospel. Logic, reasoning, and even common sense has been completely thrown out an the ones who understand even basic economics are "negged" and marked as being "negative" by those hanging onto the dream of becoming rich by holding a hyper-inflated currency.
For those wo want to bring God into all of this? How about the simple commandment: Thous shalt not LIE
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This is from 4/19/2012. Interesting how you don't give credit where credit is due...
Didn't even bother letting people know that this isn't your work?
Not cool Easy! 
Nice post, but a lot of "what if" hypothetical scenarios. That is why I have a hard time wrapping my head around it
**Its getting harder and harder coming here and listening to this new financial system BS that is completely made up! How do you folks fall for this garbage??? Unbelievable...
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Machine, if you are looking for someone who will hold your money for 3 years, and not provide you interest, etc. and will promiss to give it back to you in full I might be interested in assisting you.
Before I lock up funds for 3 years and not get any benefit, but the other guy has use of it for investing etc. I will put it in a box and bury it. At least I wont have to wait 3 years to go dig it up and use it.
In regards to Warka...I will leave my funds there and tickled to see the interest added. I may not have access to it now, but hopefully will in the end. This was a chance I chose to take. An investment that I felt was worth diversifying into. If it comes out ok then it is great for me.
But most of all, the fact that they have chose to add interest I think is interesting as to where this investment is going. Isn't it interesting that it appears we are closer to an RV, based on what all is going on in GOI, and now they come up with interest on the accounts. I wonder if they know something that we don't... I hope so.Thanks everyone. It has been an interesting read.
FYI: The interest paid is part of the banking software that is used. They could set it at 100% per month if they wanted and the accounts would reflect that. Doesn't mean the money is necessarily there... It is all virtual until Warka starts paying out their customers.
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Would you mind telling us the interest rate you received. Thanks.
7% annual for IQD Savings Accounts
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Do you still have them for sale? I will buy them if so.
Just sent you a PM. Thanks for looking!
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I got my interest paid today I like it
Everything looks good on paper. Too bad nobody can access ANY of their Warka funds... Good luck!
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Still have 200k IQD for $200...shipping included!
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Haha that's your proof? An article from a no-name author from 2011 that also says Iraq is going to "completely re-value its Dinar." That's just some idiot shooting his mouth off talking about the RV. No different than us in this blog. Don't simplify this by saying you're right due to common sense and then use that as your evidence. Hyperinflation refers to the "unrestrained" rise in the rate of inflation among many other things and has many definitions that would take both you and I a lifetime of studying Microeconomics and Macroeconomics before we were qualified to insignia a country, such as Iraq, with the hyperinflation badge. This is why we defer to the professionals and on no list anywhere in either the 20th or 21st century do I see Iraq listed among countries who were. Sorry, I'm sticking with that.
All I did was repost the link that you couldn't open...
Listen SWFloridauru: If you cant understand that a country with a 70 Trillion M2 and a GDP of a little over $100 Billion, is in a hyper-inflated state then nobody can help you. It must be nice being naive to the facts...
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How can the worthless USD buy so much?
The USD is FAR from worthless...
Its backed by the faith of the country with the worlds largest GDP and is also the only currency which can be used to purchase Oil, which means there is HiGH demand for the USD! Worthless? Nah, not even close!
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Its already common sense due to their money supply and the extra 000s on the notes, but here is the link anyways...
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Noooooooooooooooo lol!!! I saw him on the bootom the page. Was just sayin hi to him.
I see.
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Those that feel abused/cheated/lied too attack.............the scene/song remains the same.
No need to argue with those that don't see themselves as argumentative. Peace as well
agreed, but he had already answered all that he was going to answer. Did anyone really think they would get any other answers? Hey Dinarck! P.S. Ms RV Cheerleader? come on u better than that
Dinarck and I have had our own debates in the past, we are definitely not the same person! LOL http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/78776-open-market-operations-aka-currency-auctions/
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You are not looking for anything but an argument thats pretty clear. You must've got bored with your woe is me gang down in the cellar. He has stated numerous times it's his opinion what else do you want from the guy. Disagree and move on. Do you ever get tired of blowin hot air?
Yea, how hard is it to just disagree and move on? You never seem to get that yourself Caz.
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They're in attack mode, similar to a feeding frenzy. Just don't cut yourself around em it could get worse.
Similar to the PRO RV team who attacks and negs anybody who doesn't agree wit them because it goes against their dreams of becoming rich overnight, you of all people here should understand what I'm referring to Mrs. GO RV cheerleader...
This isn't a one way street...
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As Shabibi himself said, when it comes to a revaluation, it depends upon stability & inflation and if they go in that direction they would never be able to announce that prior to anyone. It's imperative to the process they remain as surreptitious as possible. If you are looking for an article that details the exact mechanisms as to how they will revalue, you will be waiting a long time. If you were the CBI would your goal be to tip your hand to the world or would you do just what was necessary and educate the public that there were some economic reforms on the way that would improve competitiveness, reduce poverty, encourage foreign investement and provide the environment for healthy businesses and job creation all while also telling the rest of the world, hey guys nothing to see here, just a little redenomination? Of course, if you're smart and being instructed by the IMF, you would go with the latter. As you've pointed out, I certainly don't have the answers, nor do I pretend to. I'm just stating my opinion, which may or may not be correct.
Then why did you spin the original article to say the IQD is going to be revalued when you now say they would never come out and say it? I think this is the point everyone has been trying to make, you spun this RD article to make it look like RV, but now your'e saying they would never come out and say we would RV...
Which is it?
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"It's not a lop, not a lop. Wait... SMOKESCREEN!"
in LOPster tank
Posted
Yes the AUD is currently very strong. Especially because it provides the highest interest rates out of any other currency, with the Euro cutting interest rates recently, the AUD is the preferred currency for the carry trade. However, if China is slowing down, the AUD will feel the pressure as they rely very heavily on their exports. Also, if Oil and Gold prices drop, that will also affect the AUD in a negative way.
Keep an eye out for Core Personal Consumption expenditure. This is helicopter Ben Bernanke's favorite fundamental tool to gauge whether to do QE. If it stays above 2%, QE bugs can kiss QE goodbye. I can almost guarantee QE3 will not happen before November's elections, if ever at all.
Actually, the Aussie is almost a leading indicator in it's own right. Good to keep an eye on it at all times.