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. I’d like to share some more encouraging news concerning COVID-19. Research was just released by MIT concerning the effect of temperatures on COVID-19 transmissions. The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit). The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases. The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states. The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit). What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically. And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu. The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it. We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing. Data is the source of truth… not the mainstream media. We have a lot to look forward to in the coming weeks… not only a return to more normal school and work conditions but also a recovery in the equity markets.
