Kent

Smithgroup, I agree with you about the sale of that red and green paper, but am not quite as cynical about corruption of the process since figures are being posted and reserves monitored by IMF.

There will be plenty who will say it ain't so, but it sounds like a lop. Even if it were true, your investment would increase in value IMO, but more like double or triple.

Oops I intended to quote this post rather than ftruck7. sorry.

Ali is the owner of DinarTrade.com He is a dealer (probably the biggest by far).

Perhaps someone can help me out... I went to the Rules section and can't find a rule against politics or religion.

Ditto that. I appreciate all the info k98nights brings to us from others. Keep on it k98 and smoke one for me!

jocko, I assume you are half responding in fun, but honestly, I guess I missed where it said RV forum. I thought it just said dinar, dinarvets, Iraq and dinar related news, dinar rumors. Please give the lopsters (I guess like me) a reason to think differently if you want to end the discussion. Perhaps then we could get Adam to post something really good on his blog and just point people to it every time it comes up!

Actually, I sent Adam a PM and have posted the money question asking that he put treatment of it in his book - then bought the book looking for that answer. If you have the book, you will notice he really doesn't address that issue directly. I would love to see him do it. The posts on Frank's site are so long, I just can't wade thru 50-60 pages in a string to see if he answers a question, so I'm not quite sure how to get his perspective on it. (But the daily news summaries that his people put together at the end of his post are excellent.) I hope he and nearly everyone else is right. I'd like to shout from the rooftops I WAS WRONG! and be the first in line to cash out. Even at 10 cents it would pay off my mortgage and that would be a life-changer. Somehow, though praying for prosperity... no. I'll book my knee time pretty much on other issues and try and be content. Faith and finances are getting pretty intermingled in this deal. I have a friend who is a pastor. He estimates the tithe on a $3 RV would generate as much as $20Million to his (not very large) church. The dinar is running pretty long and wide in conservative christian circles and people want to believe that the way christians would put those resources to use is again a reason it is going to happen. I hope they are right. I don't doubt God, but still have some scepticism for a really big RV and think the issues are separate.

JWB, I really like Frank26. I appreciate the motive he has and think he seems to have more "intel" sources than anyone. Personally, I appreciate the way he is conducting his site as a ministry - not for everyone, but I admire and agree with it. I can't answer your question. I went back and looked myself and this is the only quote I could find and I am not sure it is the correct one, but it is a rate I've seen often. This was from his post on the 20th in a kind of pretend conversation: "Frank26

There are very few of us who share that same question and the those with the prevailing view (big RV or bust) on this site never offer examples or documentation of a drastic RV. You might want to read through http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?6716-Is-This-Real . I gave a link for a study of lops (70 of them since 1960) and one of the senarios studying the causal factors very closely describes Iraq (hypothesis 2 in the study from UNC, Chapel Hill), but I have a warning for you. It aint a popular view and few will abide your question, much less discuss it intelligently. People get emotional and dismissive and will totally mis-state the effect. I'm a little tired from posting on the last one, but I will follow this string with interest to see if you can get anyone to document their position. A combination lop/rv makes perfect economic sense to me. Good luck.

By the way, if any of you are interested in the US economy and fed policy, this weeks (free) weekly newsletter from John Mauldin was really good. http://frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp

Ditto all that. I am with you. We are in short company. On the other hand (if you like rumors) a buddy (just yesterday told me) knows a friend who knows an ex IMF analyst who says there is support for a $2 RV. That same friend knows people who have hundreds of thousands of dollars in this - he says $500,000US invested amoung their small group and they say 100% it isn't going to lop! Getting anyone to support that theory with either examples or facts is very hard to come by - and I would really love to see it. My buddy just "believes" and says just ignore the money supply issue.

Bahama and Lepoc, that is exactly what we have been discussion in this string. There are very few of us who share your question/concern, but it is at the root of whether an RV or a lop is more plausable. bahama, I think your currency number is actually a little low. Look at the M2 figure from the CBI at http://www.cbi.iq/xl&wr/key%20financial.xls which makes your concern even larger. For a brief description of the difference between M0 (currency) and M2 look at http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00565 . Most believe there is no way there will be a lop. For a study of forces influencing lops since 1960 look at http://www.unc.edu/~lmosley/APSA%202005.pdf . Muhammad makes the case that lops are very distructive by comparison to North Korea. I contend that they are not distructive, but are value nutral unless other monitary change is made at the same time (like in Korea, capping the amount of currency that anyone could exchange). ArtistsandWriters reminds us that the decision for any of this is in the hands of the IMF. Perhaps that summary will help bring you up to speed on the string. Please contribute. Kent

Any sources of information or details on Kuwait and Libya RVs?

From seeing something else I read, (I think it was Adam), I believe Kuwait was more of a floating increase based on market value rather than a government declared change in rate like the one we want to see in Iraq. I recall someone saying they bought at like $.06 and sold over $3.

Tommy, serious question - not trying to lock horns... Are you aware of a single incident where there was a large RV? I would love to eat my words and just accept in faith that it has been done before - so it can happen again. There have been 70 lops since 1960. I can't find info on RV's.

MariaSoledad, I believe his point was that this IS old news from 2 years ago that would take about 2 years before final implementation and he is questioning whether that is still a present possibility.

Total bummer dude! ...but I think you are right. Mexico '93 appears in the study mentioned earlier (I am trying to paste with formatting, but it is looking strange. sorry if this is messed up when I hit the post button): Table 1: Inflationary Episodes and Redenomination Outcomes Country Years & Annual Inflation Rates Redenomination? Albania 1992 (226%) No Angola 1992 (299%), 1993 (1379%), 1994 (949%), 1995 (2672%), 1996 (4145%), 1997-2002 (average, 194%). Yes, 1995. Argentina 1975-1982; average annual rate 267% Yes, 1983. Argentina 1983 (344%), 1984 (627%), 1985 (672%) Yes, 1985. Argentina 1987, 1988, 1989 (3080%), 1990 (2314%), 1991 (172%) Yes, 1992. Armenia 1994 (4962%), 1995 (176%) No. Azerbaijan 1992 (912%), 1993 (1129%), 1994 (1665%), 1995 (412%) Yes, 1992. Belarus 1993 (1190%), 1994 (2221%), 1995 (709%) Yes, 1992. Belarus 1999 (294%), 2000 (169%) Yes, 2000. Bolivia 1981-1986; peaked at 11749% in 1985. Yes, 1987. Brazil 1981-1985, average annual rate 151%. Yes, 1986. Brazil 1986 (147%), 1987 (228%), 1988 (629%), 1989 (1431%) Yes, 1989. Brazil 1990 (2948%), 1991 (433%), 1992 (952%), 1993 (1928%), 1994 (2076%) Yes, 1993 and 1994. Bulgaria 1991 (338%), 1996 (122%), 1997 (1058%) Yes, 1999. Chile 1973 (362%), 1974 (505%), 1975 (375%), 1976 (212%) Yes, 1975. Congo, Dem. Rep. 1979 (101%), 1989 (104%), 1991 (2154%), 1992 (4129%), 1993 (1987%) Yes, 1993. Congo, Dem. Rep. 1994 (23773%), 1995 (542%), 1996 (542%), 1997 (176%) Yes, 1998. Congo, Dem. Rep. 1999 (285%), 2000 (514%), 2001 (360%) No. Croatia 1992 (625%), 1993 (1500%), 1994 (107%) Yes, 1994. Georgia 1995 (163%) Yes, 1995. Ghana 1977 (116%), 1981 (117%), 1983 (123%) No. Indonesia 1962 (131%), 1963 (146%), 1964 (109%), 1965 (307%), 1966 (1136%), 1967 (106%), 1968 (129%) No. Israel 1980 (131%), 1981 (117%), 1982 (120%), 1983 (146%), 1984 (374%), 1985 (305%) Yes, 1980 and 1985. Kazakhstan 1994 (1877%), 1995 (176%) No. Laos 1999 (128%) No. Latvia 1992 (243%), 1993 (109%) Yes, 1993. Lebanon 1987 (488%), 1988 (128%) No. Lithuania 1993 (410%) Yes, 1993. Macedonia 1994 (126%) Yes, 1993. Mexico 1983 (102%), 1987 (132%), 1988 (114%) Yes, 1993. Mongolia 1993 (268%) No. Nicaragua 1985-1991. Highest in 1989 (4770%), 1990 (7485%) and 1991 (2945%) Yes, 1998. 4 Country Years & Annual Inflation Rates Redenomination? Peru 1983 (112%), 1984 (110%), 1985 (163%) Yes, 1985. Peru 1988 (667%), 1989 (3399%), 1990 (409%) Yes, 1991. Poland 1982 (104%), 1989 (245%0, 1990 (555%) Yes, 1995. Romania 1991 (231%0, 1992 (211%), 1993 (255%), 1994 (137%), 1997 (155%) Yes, 2005. Russia 1993 (875%), 1994 (308%), 1995 (197%) Yes, 1998. Sierra Leone 1987 (179%), 1990 (111%), 1991 (103%) No. Sudan 1991 (124%), 1992 (118%), 1993 (101%), 1994 (115%), 1996 (134%) Yes, 1992. Suriname 1993 (144%), 1994 (368%), 1995 (236%) No. Turkey 1980 (110%), 1994 (106%) Yes, 2005. Uganda 1981 (109%), 1985 9158%), 1986 (161%), 1987 (200%), 1988 (196%). Yes, 1987. Ukraine 1993 (4735%), 1994 (891%), 1995 (377%) Yes, 1996. Uruguay 1968 (125%) Yes, 1975. Uruguay 1990 (113%), 1991 (102%) Yes, 1993. Zambia 1989 (123%), 1990 (107%), 1992 (166%), 1993 (183%) Zimbabwe 2002 (140%), 2003 (estimated 1000%) No. a Inflation data from the World Bank, World Development Indicators, annual percent change in consumer prices. b There are additional redenominations, often in response to high levels of inflation; but comparable inflation data are not available. These include Brazil (redenominates 1967 and 1970), Estonia (1992), Kyrgyz Republic (1993), Moldova (1993), Uzbekistan (1993), and Vietnam (1975 and 1985).

QUOTE=sos;38762]No offense taken. But please do read what I posted before you discredit it. I stated that the currency is simply recalibrated by virtue of removing zeros while maintaining the same value it had prior to LOP. I stated that its purpose was to maintain the relevance of the currency, which is spiraling downward due to runaway inflation. The illustration as a tourniquet was that it was a short-term fix to a currency issue and not a solution, which is all related to hyperinflation. However, the spiraling comes from the fact that inflation causes the devaluing of the currency and the devaluing of the currency feeds the upward trending of inflation. The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates (thus slowing the rate) Take it for what you will but this is not opinion. Economies are not linear. I certainly read it, but may have partly mis-read. Sorry and thanks for additional clarification. I still, however don't agree with your last statement "The Lop and its recalibration of the currency serves to alleviate the currency's contribution to the inflation rates". The a clean lop has no real effect on inflation. Again, part of that quote on the university study: "Redenomination absent monetary reform will not halt inflation, and redenomination should not change individuals’ behavior. Indeed, taken separately from a broader program of macroeconomic reform and monetary tightening, redenomination seems unlikely to generate winners and losers" So often people so quickly dismiss a lop with a simple statement that it is only used in the midst of or to deal with hyperinflation and from the study that appears to be incorrect. Likewise, statements about how horrible and damaging it is are often not true. The horrible and damaging part comes with other monetary policy that is sometimes done at the same time as the lop (Muhammad's example of North Korea an excellent example).

Yea buddy! That's what I'm talking about! Real money on an RV! How did that affect their economy? They seem pretty stable. Hope, real hope. I'm loving it. On another note, you obviously have an eloquent use of words... and that name. Are there any books with your name that I should read? Feel free to send a PM if you don't want your real name posted.

Oops, have to correct an earlier post. It certainly can be confiscatory (like North Korea and several other authoritarian governments), but that is not the type I was referring to. This is a clip from that university study: "Mas

I have no problem with methods, just with the amount. How could they possibly dry up enough currency to keep a substantial RV from being inflationary? Even if they dried up half the currency and improved the turn of currency in the market with the additonal liquidity that would result from those methods, what kind of RV would be plausable for an economy of $95Billion? Perhaps another question would be beneficial. Let's take another tack here. With your currency investing background you probably have the answer. Can anyone site some examples where an RV was implemented? Has it ever occurred with a value multiple of 1,000 - 3,000? That would offer some big hope and I have never heard anyone mention anything but Kuwait (which seems to have been more of a floating market increase than a declared RV?)

Smithgroup, No... and yes. No, a lop would not really occur after an RV, but a currency recall probably would. If they did an RV they would also do a currency exchange to recall the really big (10k and 25k) notes and retire them. It is generally thought a bad idea to have really huge bill denominations floating around (eg, lay 3 bills on the table to buy a house). It creates too much of a fraud risk. Yes, a reverse stock split is an exact comparison. It works exactly the same way... no change in value.

A&W, But wouldn't an RV drastically increase the money supply and isn't that inflationary? Muhammad and SOS, I hate being the "frog", but respectfully, I think you are seriously misunderstanding the purpose and effect of a lop. Please consider reading the study I posted in an earlier link. It is not a tourniquet to stop the bleeding because it has no effect on inflation whatsoever. It is not a theft. It is a value neutral exchange. Please consider looking at Hypothesis 2 in that report. It exactly describes the situation in Iraq. It is a method of removing cumbersome currency without changing value. It is not a confiscitory policy and it does not discredit the country.

No, I like a 2 zero lop. It gives more room for growth. And I also agree with Artists&Writers (I think) that the IMF would have to either sanction any decision or pull chapter VII for them to do it themselves... but I have no idea who would actually make an announcement.