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nemesis760
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Posts posted by nemesis760
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I'm surprised Okie lets him post logical opinions...
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Dropping Zeros, Gaining Credibility? Currency Redenomination in Developing Nations
Layna Mosley, Dept. of Political Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC
www.unc.edu/~lmosley/ In reading the above document, I find that the type of redenomination Iraq is soon to face does not really fit any of the models with the above named document. The reason is; Iraq’s currency was not the victim of inflation like some of Iraq’s neighbors, like Turkey with inflation in 1980 at 110% and 1994 at 106%, who redenominated in 2005, Georgia with inflation in 1995 at 163% who redenominated in 1995 and Israel with inflation in 1980 at 131%, 1981 117%, 1982 120%, 1983 146%, 1984 374% and 1985 305% who redenominated in 1980 and 1985. Iraq’s inflation rate was low before the Sadam era and is still low now at 6.02% for December of 2011. Iraq is not mentioned in the above publication in the table of inflationary countries and redenomination.
In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still ID 1 to US $3.22; however, with estimates of the nation’s inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar’s real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-only about half the 1986 official rate, which would have been US $1.32. See Wikipedia on the history of the Iraq Dinar. No, inflation was not the problem; Iraq fell victim of war instituted by the Sadam regime with subsequent sanctions employed by the United States and upheld by the United Nations, which in turn tumbled the Iraq Dinar to keep them from buying weapons of mass destruction. Iraq’s Dinar was sanctioned from 2001 US $0.00027 to 2004 US $0.00068 and now US $0.00086 average. In the part below the author omits countries that dollarization was used, such as Iraq but not named.
Excerpt from the above document: “The dataset includes developing and transition economies during the 1960-2003 periods. Many countries enter the dataset after 1960, because they do not gain independence until later in the period. Country-years that coincide with official dollarization, either fully or nearly, are omitted from the analysis.14 I also include Portugal, Spain and Greece – long classified as part of “emerging Europe” – until they join EMU (1999 for Portugal and Spain, 2001 for Greece). This results in a dataset of 5,736 country-years although, for many variables, missing data render the number of cases included significantly smaller.” Iraq is a different sort of exchange rate regime due to past sanctions.
Another excerpt from the above document: “Of course, neither measure captures international influences perfectly: the capital flows indicator includes all types of capital (short and long term), and it is likely that different types of flows (e.g. equity vs. FDI) will affect government policymaking in different ways. Moreover, the exchange rate regime could cut either way, assuming (and this is an assumption, given the time frame) capital mobility. Governments with fixed rates may worry more about external pressures, as they need to impress markets, lest they face a speculative attack on their peg. Alternatively, governments with flexible rates may worry about their currency’s value, particularly if they are more trade dependent.” Governments with fixed exchange rates, such as Iraq, will use policymaking and elections to determine when a redenomination will occur, such as internal capital from oil revenues and other commodities. Iraq as we know has lots of different ways to gain GDP, which in turn will allow over time a return to the proper exchange rate. Because of Iraq’s quailed exchange rate and dollarization of Iraq the excerpt of the above mentioned document explains more of what in my opinion is Iraq’s exchange rate future. “Currency and Identity. The final two hypotheses developed in Section II concern the relationship among confidence in currency and government, national identity and redenomination. Along these lines, hypothesis 6 suggests that foreign currency substitution will influence positively the hazard of redenomination. Unfortunately, data on foreign currency substitution is not available for most of the country-years included in the analyses. One means of assessing these hypotheses would be the analysis of public opinion data: holding all else equal, are changes in the inflation rate or the dollar to local currency rate correlated with changes in approval of the government, or changes in affinity with the nation-state? Or, in a cross-sectional sense, do citizens of nations with higher levels of foreign currency denomination have significantly lower levels of confidence in their governments? The latter analysis would necessitate only cross-sectional (as in Feige et al 2002, Feige 2003) data on currency substitution, rather than a fuller set of time series data.”
As we know Iraq is currently being dollarized pulling the Dinar out of the market place of Iraq, as such, Iraq will eventually redenominate with lower denominations buying the USD back, once the Citizens of Iraq gain confidence in their government and the nations-states currency.
In the near future I predict we will see articles coming out that will influence the Iraqi People into confidence of their own Nation-state currency. When we start seeing these articles the RV is near!
As I show above and the statements made at PDF page 17 of the Future Project of Iraq, wherein its states that the IQD should have been devaluing and the history showing the IQD was only really worth US $1.32, I employ you to give more credence to the 1 to 1 articles rather than that of the Intel Providers dream of 3.22 to 12.00. I believe that the RV will come out at somewhere between 1.13 and 1.17 and could be as high as 1.32, but we will not know until that day.
I do know it will not be in the high ranges we hear so often and I believe, if you read the above document and the history of Iraq’s currency, as well as the 1 to 1 articles, you will become convinced as I have that the high numbers are nothing but dream poppers and hype and a LOP is out the window.
God Bless,
AJ
Its coolheaded explinations like this that are so appreciated. Thanks for the post Patriotic_Mess
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Do they do a third reading after the second then publish in one of the papers there before it become law?
From what i understand they can publish it after the second reading, but i have been know to be wrong...often.
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friggin rooster suckers... I would think in a culture where you can have multiple wives, you would WANT to go to work, just to get out of the hut!
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Iraqi paired attend meetings of the Parliament to ratify the budget
Topic has been read 20 times
Author: the future of Iraq
24/1/2012 0:00
BAGHDAD / the future of Iraq
announced that a parliamentary source in the Iraqi List, said Iraqi MPs will attend the meeting of the Council of Representatives is voting in the federal budget for the current year.
The source said in a press statement yesterday that "the Iraqi List, has decided to enter the meeting which will vote on the draft budget law this year, because of this importance and benefit to the people. " The president of the parliamentary bloc of the Iraqi list Salman Jumaili that "the Iraqi List will not be an obstacle to approval of the general budget for 2012," noting that "the Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi had completed all the budget is now in the House for discussion and study."
SWEET!!!!
looked for the word soon... not seen!!
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Look at the difference in the Kuwait Dinar and Iraqi Dinar:
1. Kuwait Dinar = 1 KWD = 3.58809 USD
2. Iraqui Dinar = 1 IQD = 0.000858001 USD
Adam:
Does it make sense that the Iraqi Dinar will Revalue equal too Kuwait?
Please give your thoughts on the Wednesday Message Board!!
Thanks
Protandim
I asked the same thing got this response:
[kcw] nemesis760 Adam- I have heard grumblings that the IQD is supposed to be the strongest currency in M.E., is it possible the rate meets the KD within two years? Given the rate of natural resources.
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[Adam Montana] The Iraqi's are very proud people, and yes they grumble about how it should be the stongest in the region
[Adam Montana] I doubt they will exceed Kuwait's rate for quite some time
[Adam Montana] they have made great progress, but not quite that much.
[Adam Montana] don't let the $7 RV bafoons sway your opinion. Those are ridiculous numbers
[Adam Montana] a dime is reasonable, a dollar is possible, $3 will never happen, and $7 is something that could get you thrown in RV Rehab
Read more:
Hope that helps!
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RV to $2.80 matches that... that would be sweet...
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very interesting...and perhaps a part of the "mis"-information we've expected hmmmm
they are 11 hours ahead of us, maybe it was a late session, or maybe they figured they would put out the news in the wee hours, when nobody can hear their empty promises...
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So what I cant come on here and debate?? Now thats just no fun!!!
Im not pushing any agenda....just wondering how the hell people can scream go RV at a lop article....so I poke and prod to see how people come up with the thoughts they do.....that is the interesting part, learning how people take information and how they comprehend whats being said....
And its no wonder that english/reading skills are pushed to be improved in this country.....
So are you insinuating that I lack english/reading skills, keep? Is this 'poking and prod' keep? Because that line has now turned it personal. You have moved from actions taken to understand articles to personal attacks. What is your profession Keep? You want to take it personal, thats fine, divulge your personal info. Or, don't, I can use the tools of my profession to find out. The debate of LOP vs RV, that doesn't affect me, so don't try to say I am taking that debate personal. It is what is in bold I take personal. The "..." at the end is interpreted as the writer is implying that the previous text is directed at the individual that is being responded to.
If that's not what you meant, then possibly take that line and apply it to yourself. Its a passive aggressive attack at the level of education of the person you are quoting. English 101, the 'Argumentative Essay' rules will show that when entering a debate that you must make the debate less personal for the reader to not apply it to ones self and therefore read on with an open mind. The goal of an argument is to persuade the reader to align themselves with your thoughts and ideas. Psych 101, to insure the individual will proceed to divulge information without subconscious defense, leading to resentful feelings and anger, refrain from inflammatory remarks or sentence structures that insinuate a personal attack.
Laugh it off like always, boy. It is easy to be an internet troll, you lose credibility every day. Or say i am reading into it too much, well, you wrote it, own up to the consequences of leaving things open. You want a message conveyed, write it properly. Leave no room for error.
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I did that the whole first year I was here!!! I can go back and repost them all hahaha, but I figured that would just be silly....reposting what I already did lol....
Im just waiting to see what they do with this bill....Im in sit back and wait mode now....not really out there trying to dig up every bit of info anymore....did that with Scooter
So I see the potential in Iraq and the potential in the dinar and how the value WILL NOT stay at 1170.....now to me its just a matter of which road they take to get there....keepin it simple nowadays....cause thats really what it boils down to now in my head....
I do respect knowledge, i don't respect trolling and agenda pushing (from both arenas of thought, aka Gurus, you are the 'LOP Guru'). Sit back and wait mode? Dude, you post more than most on this site, that is not sit back and wait mode, that's a taking action and instigating mode.
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Wrong....again smokie if you read the entire thread....I already explained it for you
Here I will type it again....just for you
Iraqi takes the USD they hold and exchange for dinar at 1to1....guess what....they dont become any more wealthy than they were before....just more purchasing power with their countrys currency....its not the CBI theories smokie....they have no theories....they know exactly what they are doing....you are the pne with theories
For the longest....you and all ypur lopster bfs state.....removing 3zeros means....25,000 dinar note is guna be worth 25 bucks....yada yada yada.....its been stated over and over by the CBI as of the late that....the new 200 dinar note will be equal to what 200k dinar is at present time.....so with that said....your theory is out the window....havent seen you comment on that....how come? I know youve seen it.....i know why cause there is NO 200k dinar note....so that tired old LOP theory you push so much is dead....whether you see it or not....pretty simple....its guna be 1to1 all day long....
So, if I am not mistaking, you are talking about concurrent currencies? Correct? As in:
200 NID = 200,000 IQD = 200 USD?
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Good god, do these people have A.D.H.D!? They can't stay focused, unless, of course, its to make a spectacle.
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Adam- I have heard grumblings that the IQD is supposed to be the strongest currency in M.E., is it possible the rate meets the KD within two years? Given the rate of natural resources.
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Damn, shouldn't have taken the weekend off of DV, are there cliffnotes on this thread somewhere? Or has it turned into a LOP vs RV vs RD?
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Just hug it out and lets get back to the damn article...
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ps.....does anyone really think there will ever be peace in the ME in our lifetime?
No, just pieces....
Did someone throw a shoe? Why are they all having an issue sitting and doing their jobs, if their job is to throw a hissy fit and stage a theatrical tantrum, my 3 year old would like to apply....
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+1 evened you out....
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When is the conference?
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Keep......read the whole thread and you will better understand things......there are people here who are smarter than you and I..........I wasn't asking you or anyone else to help me comprehend what it means.....read the.the thread.......keep I don't believe or look to you for anything....infact unless you respond directly to me I don't even read your posts anylonger......you bring nothing new to the table....its the same old tired lop or this is bad for us song and dance you put out everyday
Shoot little buddy.....if I felt anywhere close to.the way you do.....I surely wouldn't be waisting my time here.........why so many put stock into your posts is beyond me....no one including you and me will ever know the details of this event......and I'm sorry you look at things in such a negattive manor everyday.....let give you one little piece of advice keep....ahhhh nevermind outside an RV smacking you in the face.....your so scorn by the gurus.....its no use.....sorry I.couldn't help you tonight
I agree with the bolded, but he does make very good points at times, of course, I want to strangle him (see Homer Simpson and Bart), or ask how i am supposed to take him serious when he looks more trashed in his avatar than i know i was in mine (the word VERY should be inserted there somewhere next to 'mine')... but at least a third of the time, the dude keeps me grounded on the investment.
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The only difference between their politicians and ours are proper PR people. Nobody spins lazy, greedy, pretentious, lieing, self promoting, idiots like the american PR person. If Iraqi politicians want to be like US politicians, they need to spin these better.
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SoCal,
Thanks for the honesty. I'm up here in NoCal and the same is true. Tradesman are struggling and the numbers about employment continue to be cooked up. There is a desparation on the streets that is for real! We need something divine to change things quick....
NoCal transplant in SoCal, I went back and saw Selma, Modesto, Fresno, Tulare, Visalia.... all of em, a mere shadow of what they were when I left. Even San Diego areas i have seen, so many places hit. Been a lucky guy born and raised in California, but getting ready to bail thanks to all of the damn regulations/income tax rates/sales taxes (9.25 are you kidding me!?). All the talk of what Iraq needs to do, hell, wish our officials could spend more time on this state, or the country as a whole. Too many friends and family getting "furloughs" and getting decreases in pay or just fired because the state has no money. But 10+ foot swells this weekend, so catch ya later brah!
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Anyone remember the last time that the USA even PROPOSED a budget, let alone passed one?
I'm thinking it was around 2007. They're doing better than we are, and they're new at it.
Damn fine point sir. damn fine...
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Iraq: the financialbudget shelved due to political crisis
And ensure the activation of the budget in 2012 grantingfinancial loans to citizens for the purposes of housing and farmers withoutfinancial benefits which may make them a way to find solutions to immediatehousing crisis and revitalize the agricultural sector.
Because, who wants financial help???? We would prefer to destroy and devastate our country, land, future, and people.... pathetic, i am not supporting genocide, but.... makes me consider it for a hot second.
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Okay, here's what you missed... Jonny Wigged out, Randall got broken in half & put back together again (kinda),
'that other place with those other guys' gave away tons of dinars on a chat and invited everyone to party in San Francisco where they'd receive new cars ala oprah,
the Newbies got razzed, the Senior Mems had outta body experiences,
there was an ugly red bull thing exacerbated by vodka,
rumors ran like the dead to a chicago polling place,
Joey n' Vic are stil at large,
peeps with boots on the ground went head to head with peeps who knew peeps who had boots on the ground,
my guru can beat up your guru,
every obscure - badly translated news item was cut and pasted all over this place causing exploding brains all over this place,
RV - NO RV - RV - NO RV..., some folks dumped their Dinars, some folks bought 'em up,
my bank is better than your bank, don't call the bank,
put your dinars in a sock - not the bank, send me your dinars, no -send ME your dinars,
there were a few birthdays, we lost a few members, we cried, we laughed, we loved---- sigh.... welcome back, dude. (Oh, yuh.... and there was pizza in the swamp. yay.)
WHEW!...I missed red bull and vodka and guru fights? Damn holidays....
...Does anybody else envision guru fights to be a more clean shaven version of bum fights...or is that just me?
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Raise its what?
Their robes to show why they are overcompensating with such huge egos....
LOL.....................almost spit my water out on that one
On: Wed, 01/05/2012 16:10
Am i reading that correctly? wed? 1/05/2012? don't they use day/month/year? form
ya, so that would mean May 5 2012
CBI Currency Auction 1 Feb 2012
in Iraq & Dinar Related News
Posted
"There was Shrinkage Jerry!!"