Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
  • CRYPTO REWARDS!

    Full endorsement on this opportunity - but it's limited, so get in while you can!

Phoenix3333 Responds To Pumper Allegations Made by Brian of The Great Debate


tyron
 Share

Recommended Posts

What you see there is an attempt to discredit me by telling of

lies.

You see, myself and Lakehouse have never made one single cent from

any forum chat or anything "dinar" related ...ever.

I am a strong supporter of the banking system and warn people to

avoid private currency exchanges (dinar dealers) and I always have.

There are people out there who own forums who work for the dinar

dealers and get kick backs from dinar sales and also plan to make

massive profits from dinar cash in sites they plan to open and run

for the dinar dealers.

These people see me and what i tell others as a threat to their

profits so they take any info they can and twist it to discreadit

me in any way they can for they fear people will listen to

me....and if people listen to me the dinar dealers lose.

On those names yes those are old name i have had in the past on old

forums before i had my own forum and radio show but that is open

info and has never any secret but back then as now i have never

pumped anything and infact have warned others of and pointed out

scammers and fraud and that is also the reason they attempt to

discredit me.

Now on the one name "ema" that is not a name but thre letters from

my log on which was my e-mail, That is from an old government e-

mail address of mine that was used a few years ago ema = Emergency

Management Agency.

So yes I have seen that and it is no big deal...most know the truth

and those who don't will soon enough.

Thanks for sending that and you have my permission to repost this e-

mail anywhere you like in response to what you sent if you feel the

need.

Thanks again.

Phoenix

Sorry, I think I accidentally put this in the wrong forum. Please feel free to move it, Mods.

  • Upvote 13
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the post Tyron... I like listening to Phoenix! I don't always agree with him, but love most of his perspective's on things. I don't like it when someone misquotes his information though... just keepin it real! wink.gif

Edited by RodandStaff
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like listening to Phoenix,because, he keep it real and with facts.Who cares, what this brain dude says.I'm going to listen to Phoenix ,because,I know and trust him.This brain dude can go jump lake.

The "Brian" guy does present a lot of interesting information that is most likely factual... But he fails in one regard, and sugar-coats another.

He fails at saying the 25,000 notes represent less than 1% of the money supply.

The 25,000 ID note was the 3rd most printed & issued note. I fail to see how that would equal less than 1%.

If all 25k's were removed, we would see approximately 14-17 trillion removed from the money supply. 14 out of 30T would equal nearly 50%

In other words, 25ks make up in terms of value, 50% of their circulation of hard-cash.

Going off of memory, here is the order of most printed to least printed:

5,000

1,000

25,000

250

500

50

10,000

10ks were real low on issuance, which is likely due to counterfeitting issues.

Hoping for appreciation of the value of the ID post LOP... We didn't put our eggs in the right basket to benefit in my opinion. If we're going to reference history for a R/D and how they play out, we should also note that most likely that the appreciation is done after the old notes are invalid. This eliminates liabilities and gives the central bank a chance to adjust accordingly to how well they can back their current liablilities. If per say, 15% of old notes were never redeemed or exchanged, they should technically be able to appreciate by 15%.. (Doesn't mean they would though)

In 2004, when they issued N-IQD for the Old IQD. They did a 1:1 exchange. Now the old regime IQD was inflated from high inflation. But we can all simply argue that they allowed a short time period to do the exchange. They also locked down / closed the borders during the period. That means all surrounding countries that likely had old regime IQD got the shaft. Some people within their own country maybe didn't act fast enough to do the exchange.. They could have simply been fearing leaving home during that period of time...

Long story short: A lot of old regime IQD may never have been exchanged for new.

With that said, they likely reduced their overall money supply at that given time due to those reason(s) alone.

Their money supply may have been much easier to manage when they brought in the new IQD.

So to have a M1/M2 at their current figures, was it really wise for them to allow it to expand that much when they started off with 6.38T?

That's nearly 10 times..... (I don't think the rate has gone up 10 times, or their GDP has gone up 10 times, or that their reserves maybe even went up 10 times).

Take from this what you will, but, just try to think outside the box & look at it from many perspective.. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst. :)

  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "Brian" guy does present a lot of interesting information that is most likely factual... But he fails in one regard, and sugar-coats another.

He fails at saying the 25,000 notes represent less than 1% of the money supply.

The 25,000 ID note was the 3rd most printed & issued note. I fail to see how that would equal less than 1%.

If all 25k's were removed, we would see approximately 14-17 trillion removed from the money supply. 14 out of 30T would equal nearly 50%

In other words, 25ks make up in terms of value, 50% of their circulation of hard-cash.

Going off of memory, here is the order of most printed to least printed:

5,000

1,000

25,000

250

500

50

10,000

10ks were real low on issuance, which is likely due to counterfeitting issues.

Hoping for appreciation of the value of the ID post LOP... We didn't put our eggs in the right basket to benefit in my opinion. If we're going to reference history for a R/D and how they play out, we should also note that most likely that the appreciation is done after the old notes are invalid. This eliminates liabilities and gives the central bank a chance to adjust accordingly to how well they can back their current liablilities. If per say, 15% of old notes were never redeemed or exchanged, they should technically be able to appreciate by 15%.. (Doesn't mean they would though)

In 2004, when they issued N-IQD for the Old IQD. They did a 1:1 exchange. Now the old regime IQD was inflated from high inflation. But we can all simply argue that they allowed a short time period to do the exchange. They also locked down / closed the borders during the period. That means all surrounding countries that likely had old regime IQD got the shaft. Some people within their own country maybe didn't act fast enough to do the exchange.. They could have simply been fearing leaving home during that period of time...

Long story short: A lot of old regime IQD may never have been exchanged for new.

With that said, they likely reduced their overall money supply at that given time due to those reason(s) alone.

Their money supply may have been much easier to manage when they brought in the new IQD.

So to have a M1/M2 at their current figures, was it really wise for them to allow it to expand that much when they started off with 6.38T?

That's nearly 10 times..... (I don't think the rate has gone up 10 times, or their GDP has gone up 10 times, or that their reserves maybe even went up 10 times).

Take from this what you will, but, just try to think outside the box & look at it from many perspective.. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst. :)

Dude, u sooo hit the nail on all my posts about this guy. Keep was trying to answer me but I do not think he understood the "factual" stuff that was making me scratch my head. Anyway, just say'n, was a relief to see you post this comment if nothing else but to validate my sense that something wasn't adding up.

Peace! (go RV!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think people fully appreciate what a negative influence Brian has had on all of us. It is even possible that it was his precise logic that has Sonny1 thinking we should all have a massive dinar bonfire.

The economic model Brian was working from was immaculate, (I should know coming from that school of though), but watch this video of 2 Economics Nobel prize laureates stutter and stammer when asked about the American economy. The REAL world apparently is a lot messier to predict.

I wonder too if Brian's economic model would have been able to predict or allow for the16 trillion dollars worth of American money that was handed out to private international banks.

Thanks for the post Tyron... I like listening to Phoenix! I don't always agree with him, but love most of his perspective's on things. I don't like it when someone misquotes his information though... just keepin it real! wink.gif

You're welcome R. Phoenix is a nice guy, a rare thing in this day and age, and hence in need of protection and support whenever possible.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude, u sooo hit the nail on all my posts about this guy. Keep was trying to answer me but I do not think he understood the "factual" stuff that was making me scratch my head. Anyway, just say'n, was a relief to see you post this comment if nothing else but to validate my sense that something wasn't adding up.

Peace! (go RV!)

Well, it is just so weird how he has a negatively slanted view.... Now when I say negative, I mean he does not think anything we hope for is possible.

He provides a lot of information in regards to surrounding countries, GDPs, numbers in circulation, etc. etc.

But than he sugar coats that we may make profits after a R/D..

IMO - we won't...

Here is why:

Lets say their M2 is 50 Trillion. A R/D (lop) makes it 50 Billion. They're not going to adjust their monetary policy, so they'll have to continue backing it 100%. They may have a much more manageable money supply, but they still need to back their currency. Now, out of all old notes, some notes may never end up being exchanged for reasons such as:

They were lost (they forgot where the buried them in the sand)

They were stolen

They were burned

Speculative holders may not exchange in time

In other words, the CBI may have 30 some trillion in circ... So, lets say only 25 trillion comes back to the CBI for exchange..

That is 5 Trillion unaccounted for & now worthless.

Out of a 50T to 50B M2, (5T to 5B), the IQD could than at that time appreciate in value by 10%.

So, if the rate were $0.86, we could use the formula $0.86*1.1= $0.946

Now they've closed in on a dollar. If they increase their foreign net reserves, they can be on par w/ $1. This would be done w/o increasing their liabilities, and maybe padding their foreign cash reserves a little bit.

But! They couldn't adjust the rate until they knew what their true liabilities were.. They're going to know not all old notes will be accounted for. So, any rate adjustment is likely going to be after the 000s are invalid. It would only make logical sense.. It would be when they have their biggest adjustment.

Now, they may appreciate the value up front, to give incentive to use the IQD over USD & so forth.. But the biggest adjustment would likely happen when the notes we hold are invalid.

But, since we over paid what the IQD was worth, we would need to see a rather drastic rate increase. We would need to see about a 45+% appreciation in value. (0.86x1.45= $1.25 - rounded up)

We would maybe still fall short with bank fees & spreads.

Now, if the R/D, what are we all going to do once it is official and the CBI represents it? We're going to hop off the ride & cash-out, exchange, or what have you. Well the CBI is going to have to cough up the change for those 000s. We the M1/M2 figures are truly accurate, the US speculators hold a large amount, we can expect to see a bank-run.

People looking to exchange their 000s for USD.

People withdrawing from Warka, closing accounts.

Why? Because we have greatly reduced our ROI %. Could the value go up? Yes, but likely after the project is complete. This would require jumping out, and jumping back in through a different process such as finding LDs, Warka. -- Now the rewards don't outweigh the risks...

If I was the Gov. of the CBI....

I would stop printing & issuing new notes.. (unless it was a 1:1 exchange for soiled for new crisp notes)

I would focus on keeping inflation low, improve production, improve GDP, etc.

I would appreciate the exchange rate while contracting the $ supply.

And the overall result would be a slow, long-term process.

As $ comes in, that new $ added to reserves would help back the current supply in circulation

Basically, the equation would be simple

MS = Money Supply

ER = Exchange Rate

CR = Cash Reserves

MS*ER=CR

Instead of keeping the ER a constant figure, I would keep the MS a constant figure.

So, for every $1 USD or equivilent, it would add value to what already exists..

All while, if anything, reducing the MS (Money Supply) when possible.

The event would likely take a lot of time.. May involve selling bonds, etc. But, everyone wins w/ patience.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sad but true... people will be arrested and will go to jail when all is said an done. Interal staff and employees always talk and when they talk people will go down... even if this does RV, the pracitices and methods will come into question. Start hiding everyone (GURUS) as the storm is seems to be growing.

LEt's GO RV

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest guru........http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/88415-great-debate/page__hl__brian

Despite what he claims,Pudge's posting history makes me rather suspicious.

He goes from asking innocent newb questions on his first day,to acting like a dinar expert the very next.To be honest after reading him for a while he gives off a dumper vibe.

And since he talks about him all the time,for all we know Pudge might be working for this Brian or actually BE him.It's incredibly easy to deceive people with the anonymity of the internet.It's not that hard at all for lots of pumpers/dumpers to create multiple dupe accounts on Dinar sites and pretend to be different people.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I will be totally honest. A friend who is a dinarian also has told me to listen to Pheonix3333 and his radio address I think it was. I tell ya, he's a strange dude. But he is also sincere in what he does. He is happy with life and the earth. He is into the stars way more than I could comprehend. But, not a bad person. I don't see how he would benefit by telling out right lies. I just think his way of thinking is just a bit out there for me. But really, I don't see him as a pumper of Dinars either. Maybe a pumper of the astrology.

Edited by uncirculd
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a Pumper.....Just a Pumper...... not one with his nose out there, playing I know what is going to happen, does not have his fingers in the dinar pie one way or another.... He might not have made a nickle from the dinar .... but what about his wife or brother or business partner? Might be telling the truth but you can stretch the truth a long way especially when you are so good a manipulator of the masses

Edited by hitman
  • Upvote 2
  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a Pumper.....Just a Pumper...... not one with his nose out there, playing I know what is going to happen, does not have his fingers in the dinar pie one way or another.... He might not have made a nickle from the dinar .... but what about his wife or brother or business partner? Might be telling the truth but you can stretch the truth a long way especially when you are so good a manipulator of the masses

The thing about Phoenix is he's always telling people to support their local bank by buying their dinars from them, and never to pay anyone for an RV phone call. Maybe I'm gullible, but I truly believe he does his radio show simply because he gets a kick out of it. Nobody can do something just for money and sound as genuine and as sincere as he does.

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it is just so weird how he has a negatively slanted view.... Now when I say negative, I mean he does not think anything we hope for is possible.

He provides a lot of information in regards to surrounding countries, GDPs, numbers in circulation, etc. etc.

But than he sugar coats that we may make profits after a R/D..

IMO - we won't...

Here is why:

Lets say their M2 is 50 Trillion. A R/D (lop) makes it 50 Billion. They're not going to adjust their monetary policy, so they'll have to continue backing it 100%. They may have a much more manageable money supply, but they still need to back their currency. Now, out of all old notes, some notes may never end up being exchanged for reasons such as:

They were lost (they forgot where the buried them in the sand)

They were stolen

They were burned

Speculative holders may not exchange in time

In other words, the CBI may have 30 some trillion in circ... So, lets say only 25 trillion comes back to the CBI for exchange..

That is 5 Trillion unaccounted for & now worthless.

Out of a 50T to 50B M2, (5T to 5B), the IQD could than at that time appreciate in value by 10%.

So, if the rate were $0.86, we could use the formula $0.86*1.1= $0.946

Now they've closed in on a dollar. If they increase their foreign net reserves, they can be on par w/ $1. This would be done w/o increasing their liabilities, and maybe padding their foreign cash reserves a little bit.

But! They couldn't adjust the rate until they knew what their true liabilities were.. They're going to know not all old notes will be accounted for. So, any rate adjustment is likely going to be after the 000s are invalid. It would only make logical sense.. It would be when they have their biggest adjustment.

Now, they may appreciate the value up front, to give incentive to use the IQD over USD & so forth.. But the biggest adjustment would likely happen when the notes we hold are invalid.

But, since we over paid what the IQD was worth, we would need to see a rather drastic rate increase. We would need to see about a 45+% appreciation in value. (0.86x1.45= $1.25 - rounded up)

We would maybe still fall short with bank fees & spreads.

Now, if the R/D, what are we all going to do once it is official and the CBI represents it? We're going to hop off the ride & cash-out, exchange, or what have you. Well the CBI is going to have to cough up the change for those 000s. We the M1/M2 figures are truly accurate, the US speculators hold a large amount, we can expect to see a bank-run.

People looking to exchange their 000s for USD.

People withdrawing from Warka, closing accounts.

Why? Because we have greatly reduced our ROI %. Could the value go up? Yes, but likely after the project is complete. This would require jumping out, and jumping back in through a different process such as finding LDs, Warka. -- Now the rewards don't outweigh the risks...

If I was the Gov. of the CBI....

I would stop printing & issuing new notes.. (unless it was a 1:1 exchange for soiled for new crisp notes)

I would focus on keeping inflation low, improve production, improve GDP, etc.

I would appreciate the exchange rate while contracting the $ supply.

And the overall result would be a slow, long-term process.

As $ comes in, that new $ added to reserves would help back the current supply in circulation

Basically, the equation would be simple

MS = Money Supply

ER = Exchange Rate

CR = Cash Reserves

MS*ER=CR

Instead of keeping the ER a constant figure, I would keep the MS a constant figure.

So, for every $1 USD or equivilent, it would add value to what already exists..

All while, if anything, reducing the MS (Money Supply) when possible.

The event would likely take a lot of time.. May involve selling bonds, etc. But, everyone wins w/ patience.

Appreciate your analysis and trying to present a way RVers can come out ahead on this. But I really disagree with your assessment of Brian's logic. You believe it's weird that he has a negatively slanted view on this? Why is that weird? You mean he's just some odd know-nothing hopey, dreamy type who has no idea of what he's talking about and relies on others to keep him pumped up about the fact there will be no RV period. Do you believe Rick Santelli, CNBC, every financial advisor and FOREX trader, The WSJ and IBD, The Chicago Board of Trade are really weird because they have a negative slanted view on this? You think they would pay a 30% spread? Maybe they're just sittin' around scratchin their heads wondering how they can get their hands on all this 'secret intel' so they too can make millions. Or maybe they don't know anything about it at all because it's such a secret and only the privileged internet folks can cash in on it? You're saying it's only the RVers that have the empircal, fact-based research with no hype, no fluff and no pumping? Maybe you've got the two sides mixed up. Could it not be said It's just as weird that you and others are positively slanted and that some (not you) believe there's no way you can't make out on this. I don't believe a case can be made that you have the majority of the historic and economic evidence and precedance to support even a 1 to 1 RV much less 3 to 1. So no, it's not weird at all that Brian believes no millionaires will be created overnight. He does, however, believe that after an RD there will be a slight revaluation as Iraq steps up economic production and that it will be gradual and natural.

As for your analysis I believe you're really over complicating the issue and leaving folks scratching their heads (100% backed currency? Backed with what? Oil? This is overprinted fiat currency not backed by anything. Do you mean their 15% reserve requirement?) Anyway, It's not that difficult. Again, as stated before there are 3 steps to an RD as Iraq has repeatedly said they will do.

1. All old banknotes are swapped for new lower denom ones at a fixed ratio (usually 1,000 for ease of exchange) within a fixed time-frame (3 months for prior Iraq banknote swaps). Eg, 25,000 Dinar notes are swapped for 25 Dinars. Iraqi's will change their old for new notes at their banks. The below article explains what happened during Iraq's prior bank-note swap when the "Swiss Dinar" was taken out of circulation in the Kurdish region for good during 2003 and Saddam's face removed from notes. When the time-limit is up, any old notes not exchanged for new are demonetized and become worthless.

It also states in the final two questions : "Q:Can dollars also be exchanged for new Iraqi dinars What will be the conversion rate for dollars?

A:Dollars will not be converted directly into new dinars during the official exchange. Following the exchange, dollars will be convertible directly into new dinars at the market exchange rate" and "Q:Will it be possible to exchange currency outside of Iraq? A:No. The only official currency exchange locations will be located within Iraq":-

http://www.exchangerate.com/iraq_currency_exchange.html

2. The currency is adjusted by the same factor for the *new notes only*. Eg, a 1170 vs the $ becomes 1.170 vs the $. You won't be paid $1m for handing in $1k worth of old notes, you'll just be given the equivalent in new notes (1k Dinars at 1.17 in place of 1m Dinars at 1170). This is what confuses many amateur Dinar speculators the most.

3. Prices in Dinars are also adjusted by the same factor. Eg, a 75m Dinar house becomes a 75k Dinar house. A 1,000 Dinar loaf of bread becomes 1 Dinar. 250,000 Dinar average rent becomes 250 Dinar rent, etc.

This doesn't have to be in multiples of exactly 1,000, it could be anything. But the PP (Purchasing Power) of *current* notes doesn't change the same way some "pumpers" are hyping it. The Iraqi Central Bank have openly stated the Dinar RD will be "based on Turkey". For those who don't remember Turkey's RD / lop, here's the official brochure explaining it:-

http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/ytlkampanya/bro.php

People weren't given $1m in cash just for holding $1 worth of Old Turkish Lira during their 6-zero RD/lop. And likewise, people won't be given $1m in cash just for holding $1,000 worth of Iraqi Dinar during their 3-digit RD/lop. The Dinar may appreciate in time when their oil exports increase in time and demand for Dinar rises, but not by silly 10,000% figures purported by some dishonest Dinar salesmen preying on FX first-timers. Hope this helps.

  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I drop in here once a week at most because I know nothing is happening with the Dinar at the moment and cant be bothered reading utter dross.

Phoenix is like a breath of fresh air compared to all the clowns and pumpers.

This whole dinar scene on the internet is frightful.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



  • Testing the Rocker Badge!

  • Live Exchange Rate

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.