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I'm writing my thesis on the RATE it will RV at...


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This is just what they don't want, everyone cashing in in a big way. They want a 1-1 open to draw in all the big notes. Maybe and I mean maybe later they may increase in value, but I think maybe after they introduce new currency and get all the big notes gone. They don't want a run on thier money.

Here little pink oiggy piggy :eyebrows:

I gave you a +1 because that makes a lot of sense to me. thanks for the edification.

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OK Adam, you asked for it. Initially, I expect a 1 to 1 rate then it will go up to 2 to 1 and by the end of the year 3.40 to 1. The plan for Iraq call for a 1 to 1 rate on page 13. So far from what I

My guess...it will be a LOP of 3 zeros then an RV to 3.40 to the Dollar. We will walk away with roughly a 3x times our initial investment.

8.50!!!! Cause thats what I was promised!!!

I think it has to come out at 1 to 1 so as to dedollarize and also to keep the speculators out. I believe it will eventually move up to 3 plus and stay there for a while. Thanks, Adam. I look forward to reading your thesis.

Happy Sunday to you,

Kimberlye B)

Me too.....then climb to old rate when the infrastructure permits,then it will crash when obama starts another war.

If his war hits first,no change........1 to .1117 :unsure:

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When I first started buying Dinar about 8 yrs ago I was told it might revalue at about 10 cents, I thought that was pretty good !!

Then I started reading the sites about 2 yrs, ago and was surprised to see how much the Guru's were saying laugh.gif

Now I say an RV of anything over $ 1.00 Just to make the Iraq's use their own currency biggrin.gif

I truely wish , when the troops leave, there was a way they could take all the american dollars with them.

If they hate us so much, they shouldn't be allowed to use american currency ohmy.gif

Shelley, you got neg'd for this, oh well, even'd you out ! +1 ya

When first got into this, was told the low to high three dollar range, makes me feel good so I'm stickin' with it !tongue.gif

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I'm partway through my promised thesis, which will explain what I think the Rate will be and why.

What do YOU think the rate will be, and why?

8.25 cuz the GET team says so :lol:

Actually i think around a dollar, reason being most Iraqi's are under educated and they have been using the USD for the last 8 or so years. It will just be simplified, no further education needed on the dinar. They will be happy and proud to have a currency equal to the USD. JMO

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I think there is a reason it has been at the programmed rate of 1170 for 3 years now. Move the decimal place over 3 zeros and make it $1.17. Thats my guess anyway. However, Im more concerned about the date than the rate. Adam, can you change your thesis on the date instead of the rate. :D

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I strongly think it will RV at around 1 USD, plus or minus some change. It may go up later. Most of the reasons others have given already about a one to one exchange rate are what I believe or agree with.

However, I see the logic behind Adam's argument of the dinar coming out around .10 to .30 cents. I don't remember which chat he held, but one within the past two or three months, I think, he gave a pretty solid reason for that amount. No, I don't remember exactly what he said either, just that I remember it sounded reasonable. I'm curious to see what his recent meetings about our investment have come up with though..

Now, I'm not a fan of gurus with fantastical intel and earth shaking friday- monday news, and in my opinion Adam is not one of these people. He seems to be a straight shooter and level headed and I appreciate his efforts and those of the other members of this site. I will say this though, the group of investors I am with are confident in this investment. A lop seems unlikely let's just say. We didn't get introduced to the dinar via okie or some other guru, or even dv for that matter (I am a big fan of dv and have much respect for it btw). I do still have a bit of faith in the possibility of a $3 plus range, just not enough to buy more dinar. Time and the fates will tell.

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When I first started buying Dinar about 8 yrs ago I was told it might revalue at about 10 cents, I thought that was pretty good !!

Then I started reading the sites about 2 yrs, ago and was surprised to see how much the Guru's were saying :lol:

Now I say an RV of anything over $ 1.00 Just to make the Iraq's use their own currency :D

I truely wish , when the troops leave, there was a way they could take all the american dollars with them.

If they hate us so much, they shouldn't be allowed to use american currency :o

Yeah, here here..:)

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I always thought that they should reinstate what was taken away. So I am hoping for $3.22 or within 20% of that, which would be $3.86. They have stated that their currency will be the most valuable in the region. I think they

might come out at 1 to 1 to pull in some of the currency, but then later, maybe 90 days later, they will raise it. The RV will make them money. They have most of the currency themselves. Why would they not want to take this opportunity to have a good rate? I will turn in a little of my currency at one to one, but I will hold out for the better rate on the rest. They have not even begun to reach their potential.

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I watch what they do, not what they say and I try to follow the money. I find this to be the best way to get a feel of what's going on. Unfortunately, neither seems to provide much indication of a rate, so I'll have to plea the 5th and wait like everyone else.

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What I would have liked and hoped for in the past (due to all the pumping, lies, etc.)... a huge Rv of epic proportions skyrocketing the Dinar from its current value up to ,say, 2 or 3 bucks or even more...Making many of us stinking rich.... Now I have come to think that's simply impossible...

What I would like now and still hope for.... a 10 to 25-30 cents per Dinar RV ( obviously no cutting of zeros)... We would earn 100 to 250-300 times our Capital.... Awesome, right?

I'm afraid that any RV starting from 1:1 and up will have a cut of zeros thus making our investment a mere zero gain at 1:1 ( a loss infact with the commissions, fees, etc. and also considering the time we got our Capital stuck into this) and at best a gain of 2 -3 times our Capital ( not bad, but...)...JMHO.

Edited by umbertino
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I watch what they do, not what they say and I try to follow the money. I find this to be the best way to get a feel of what's going on. Unfortunately, neither seems to provide much indication of a rate, so I'll have to plea the 5th and wait like everyone else.

I 2nd the 5th! wink.gif

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I want to believe that it will be re-instated at it's previous rate of $3+. The guy who bought a house in the green zone in the year 2000 with a thirty year note is buying a 150000 dinar home in 2000. If the rate were to come out at 1 to 1 wouldn't that make that and every other investment in the country worth 66% less? Is the bank going to adjust the value of the home because the currency was re-valued? Is the house now only a 50 thousand dinar valuation? If he was making 1000 dinar per week in 2000 is he making 1 million dinar a week now to have the same buying power as he did in 2000? Is everyone in the country going to take a 66% reduction in pay? Coming out at anything less than the previous value would be a great loss of wealth for anyone who owns property or any investment in the country. For most of the persons in country it won't affect that much as they relied on a system of bartering instead of a cash transaction system. That being said, I have never been to Iraq and I skipped a couple of classes at Harvard Business School so I could be way off here.

In the mid 90s the rate was already 3000 to 1:

http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=History

So a 150,000 dinar home in the year 2000 would be equal to about 50 USD back then.

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I believe in (PREFER) they Reinstate. I believe that is psychologically beneficial, gives familiarity and leans towards stability, restores PRIDE, GIVES AN EXAMPLE to other countries (and the world) watching that a DEMOCRATIC country THRIVES!

I know that some believe the Dinar was set artificially high by Sadam, but even so, not only are all of the natural resources in the country still there, but the value placed upon the resources has increased multi-fold in value. (Wasn't oil around $35 a barrel, and now $80+?). Add to that the more recently discovered minerals and you have a country with HUGE value. If you factor in the potential for fractional banking I don't know that there is any problem with Iraq supporting an RI regardless of the amount of currency in circulation.

MOST major companies are poised to get to work and have a presence in Iraq. All stand to invest and make HUGE money. FOLLOW THE MONEY! We have no idea how much is currently, or poised to go, under contract. The ISX will all but explode!

I believe Iraq is going to be the standard that the USA and much of the world would like the remainder of the region to model moving foreward from the "Arab Spring", including now Libya and CERTAINLY the neighbors in IRAN.

I believe a return to $3.22 is acceptable (or even with 20% added for"inflation" to $3.86). REMEMBER, the USD is probably worth 20% less than it was before IQD devaluation, so the rate would either offset the possibly artificially high $3.22 previously set, or be looked at as though the "new" $3.22/$3.86 rate is more like $2.50-$3.00 based upon the "previous" rate.

IF RI occurs Iraq has HUGE money to pay back debts (EX: Kuwait). RI gives HUGE value to unknown amounts other countries (EX: USA) hold.

I see NO upside in coming out low (under $1), and taking time to rise (possibly over years). I think an RI will stimulate growth, investment, stability, value certainty for contracts (little raising and lowering of currency values), increased TAX revenues (leading to funding infrastructure improvements), domestic tranquility, faith in the current government, increased country/cultural pride, and create far less interest in people supporting disruptive factions (EX: Taliban). After all, if you have plenty of money and the country is doing well, what can other factions promise you that you don't already have?

RI/RV $3.22-$3.86! th_smiley_two_thumbs_up.gif

OK Adam, you asked for it. Initially, I expect a 1 to 1 rate then it will go up to 2 to 1 and by the end of the year 3.40 to 1. The plan for Iraq call for a 1 to 1 rate on page 13. So far from what I have seen, they are approaching this whole thing systematically. They are following the Plan to a tee. Of course, this is only my humble opinion. Shabs said that he wants Iraq to have a powerful currency so that's where the 3.40 comes in. Do you think it makes sense?

I don't believe the IMF will allow the rate to climb in value more often than every 90 days. huh.gif

After reading some of the posts here, I have changed my mind, I think that now they'll come out at 3.22 to 3.68 range, my opinion is they want to come out with a bang and then rv as needed untill they reach where their real value is.

I somewhat agree. wink.gif

I have three different opinions on this. Each one truly depends on what is really going on with Iraq.

1st

And this is the one I subscribe to most. It will come out at $1.17 so as to eliminate the use of the dollar in Iraq while at the same time draw in most of the currency outside of Iraq.

2nd

It will come out between $3.22 and $3.86. This is because the IMF told them that this rate would be acceptable to them. It would bring Iraq back into the world banking fold in a HUGE way and cause, IMHO, a world shift of power toward Iraq.

3rd

Not to disparage you Adam, but I have come to accept you're wisdom and business prowess. Therefore, I think that it is likely that it could come out at .20cents to .30cents. This, IMHO, is the least likely as that would not give Iraq the power they seem to clearly demonstrate they want. Nevertheless, it is a viable answer and must be considered.

It would bring them back into the markets and they could grow from there, yet the growth period would be a rather long time.

I like #2

My guess...it will be a LOP of 3 zeros then an RV to 3.40 to the Dollar. We will walk away with roughly a 3x times our initial investment.

I don't like the numbers, but perhaps makes the most sense (and the least cents)

I always thought that they should reinstate what was taken away. So I am hoping for $3.22 or within 20% of that, which would be $3.86. They have stated that their currency will be the most valuable in the region. I think they might come out at 1 to 1 to pull in some of the currency, but then later, maybe 90 days later, they will raise it. The RV will make them money. They have most of the currency themselves. Why would they not want to take this opportunity to have a good rate? I will turn in a little of my currency at one to one, but I will hold out for the better rate on the rest. They have not even begun to reach their potential.

I agree with the first part cool.gif

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Don't do you thesis on the dinar. Anything can happen, you know that more than most. If you have to focus it, aim at financial investments...risks etc. Don't use the dinar specifically. My two cents. Hoping you're right about Thanksgiving. (You know what I mean) I don't know if I can afford the damned turkey. Don't risk a thesis on something uncertain. Only write on what you know for sure. People WILL invest...blah blah....You can make a ton.....blah blah blah........Don't listen to them, listen to me.....blah blah blah......get where I'm going? You have a thesis right there.

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I think it will come out 1 to 1 based on several articles from shabs, imf and different ones like brietling , scooter and bondlady who seem to do pretty solid research imo. I would love to see over $3 tho goodness ,I still can't imagine having that kind of money. However it it just came out at .10 we all have made a huge return on this investment .

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Me too.....then climb to old rate when the infrastructure permits,then it will crash when obama starts another war.

If his war hits first,no change........1 to .1117 :unsure:

President Obama has not started ONE war. What do you mean by "starts another war"? Maybe you are Kreskin or Nostrdamous.

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I am thinking it will come out around $3.30. This is based on the US State Departments plan for the Dinar before we even invaded Iraq.

"To sustain the likely positive impact of the new currency, it is essential to re-establish the base purchasing and foreign exchange value of the New Iraqi Dinar as it was in the 1970s." (1 ID = 3.30 USD)

If they also want to be the strongest currency in the ME, it is going to have to be a lot higher than 1:1.

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I think .27 based on the value of some of the other currencies in the region. I dont believe Iraq will want to come out real strong, but ease into it so as not to offend many of its neighbors. The more they fit in, the better chance they have for strong long term growth.

Yep. I've been claiming this figure for over a year amid all the over speculating, over analyzing and stupid prognosticating. It is such a complicated dilema that even the Iraqi government will succumb to safe parity of neighboring countries.

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Adam

I have always felt that in order to save and insert there place in the Middle East that they would come out close to the Kuwait Dinar which at this time is around $3.68. In order to meet and be considered an equal within the Arab Nation. I could be off base but this is my gut feeling

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Not sure of a rate..but I do think it will be a managed float. Only allowing a rate increase every quarter at only a couple percent maximum of the entire rate of exchange. It would take a decade (maybe longer) to get near Kuwait if the rate came out too low. My guess is at least 1 to 1, but I believe it needs to be closer to 2 to 1.

Edited by Rogue Knight
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