I'm writing my thesis on the RATE it will RV at...

[Alex38]

1 to 1. DE dollarize!

[Canuklady]

I started in this doing 10 cent math, then bumped it up (way up) to .86 cents. And now I am at $1.17. I think it has to be slightly higher than the dollar to motivate the Iraqi people to use the Dinar and to get those big bills out of circulation. Also, my three year old recently said while discussing the Dinar, that he thought the rate of the "Dinosaurs" was 100 pennies or 5 times 5 nickels, which is between $1.00 and $1.25. This, after his Dad said we thought the rate was 86 cents. The kid must know something I don't know so I bumped my rate up to $1.17. That kid is pretty influential...

Looking forward to reading that thesis Adam!

Edited October 24, 2011 by Canuklady

[dhardage]

I started in this doing 10 cent math, then bumped it up (way up) to .86 cents. And now I am at $1.17. I think it has to be slightly higher than the dollar to motivate the Iraqi people to use the Dinar and to get those big bills out of circulation. Also, my three year old recently said while discussing the Dinar, that he thought the rate of the "Dinosaurs" was 100 pennies or 5 times 5 times 5 nickels, which is between $1.00 and $1.25. This, after his Dad said we thought the rate was 86 cents. The kid must know something I don't know so I bumped my rate up to $1.17. That kid is pretty influential...

Looking forward to reading that thesis Adam!

woohoo!! Cupcakes at Canuklady's house at 4:00 the day of the RV!! That should get things going!!

[Canuklady]

woohoo!! Cupcakes at Canuklady's house at 4:00 the day of the RV!! That should get things going!!

Cupcakes and chocolate wine. Yum! And bring those three coffees you owe me!

[dhardage]

Cupcakes and chocolate wine. Yum! And bring those three coffees you owe me!

You got it!! But at least count I owed you two! Man, my keyboard doesn't know it's own strength! We are gonna have a BLAST though! You coming to Ruidoso with skitealwedrop and me?? Bring that prophetic kid of yours so we know whether or not to steer clear of the casinos!!

[Canuklady]

You got it!! But at least count I owed you two! Man, my keyboard doesn't know it's own strength! We are gonna have a BLAST though! You coming to Ruidoso with skitealwedrop and me?? Bring that prophetic kid of yours so we know whether or not to steer clear of the casinos!!

I'm there!!! You're right! It's 2 coffees!

[RodandStaff]

In my opinion, with some historical facts to back it up (see Brisco's post- http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/87744-iraq-dinar-history-486-at-one-time/page__p__705873__fromsearch__1entry705873 ) I think the dinar will RV at the minimum of the pre-war rate... but more likely higher according to Shabbs who says he wants it to be the highest rate in the region... so my guess is $3.80 to $4.00. If they have already had a historical rate of well over $4.00 (waaaaay before Saddam was a twinkle in his momma's eyes) then it is conceivable it can go their again, based on the years of being held down and their pride wanting to get the best of them. I think it will.

I also don't see the advantage of coming up low and working their way up the ladder. Might as well tell every nervous investor in the world this is the place to at least double your money... that doesn't make sense. I think after all this time they will come out strong! But that is just me, and in reality.... nobody knows for sure... we all have information or articles to back up our opinions, so until it actually happens nobody in our circle really knows!

GO RV Already Baby!!!

Cupcakes and chocolate wine. Yum! And bring those three coffees you owe me!

Shadow Springs in North Carolina makes a delicious chocolate wine... "Dark Shadow"... very tasty! What ever happened to pancakes at Alex's the day of the RV??? We could do chocolate chip pancakes to give everyone their chocolate fix! Just a thought!

GO RV Already Baby!!!

[FreckledFuzz]

A public rate of 1:$1 with a government for oil rate at $3.22

I posted my ideas here:

Edited October 24, 2011 by FreckledFuzz

[bluejay]

.85 - 1.17....Can't wait to hear what you state Adam...Thanks for all your work..

[pudge]

Naive question I'm sure, but if the rate came in at 1 to 1 how does that dedollarize Iraq? Are the Iraqi people who make 2 to 4 thousand dinar a month going to sit back and say hooray and keep the dinar or are they going to go right out and exchange them for dollars straight up? Why would they not? They would become instant millionaires. And who is going to enforce this exchange? Will foreign investors have to take a 1 to 1 exchange? Does Iraqi oil production change to Dinar instead of petro-dollars? This exchange rate would cause a run on the dollar and where would those dollars come from considering there are 935,000 dinar per Iraqi citizen. Are Dinar investors on this site going to dedollarize and buy more Dinar at 1 to 1 because it's worth more now? No, of course not. So why would an Iraqi. A $3 to 1 exchange? So Iraq just declares itself the wealthiest nation on earth by cashing in 29 trillion dinar for 87 trillion dollars? There's only 10.2 trillion dollars in circulation. Seems to me any exchange rate approaching 1 to 1 would simply cause extreme hyper inflation in Iraq and make a bad situation worse. A strong Dinar would only cripple exports at this delicate time. China has an artificially weak yuan that's killing us in order to get cheap exports to the U.S.

What am I missing here? Please educate me.

[RONIN II]

Just a stab in the dark. In 2006 Condalica Rice stated that Iraq could easily handle an RV @ $0.82. I factored in 6% inflation over five years and came up with $1.09. (Problem solved for us!)

At that rate, it's close enough to 1:1 for an easy exchange of currency, making the Dinar slightly more valuable than the dollar, ( Which should prompt the Iraqi people to make the exchange). (Problem solved for them).

This rate would provide the CBI several opportunities to RV over the coming years to get it where they want it to be, (More valuable than the Kuwaiti dinar), and still allow them to make a ton of money through

the exchange, (which is what Adam has stated he thinks they might do). (Problem solved for the CBI & GOI). Makes sense to me.

Keep in mind that I'm no economist or mathematician, and my diclaimer would have to be about a mile long!

[PhoenixGeorge]

Adam, we will be lucky to get $0.10.

[Darin]

Just a stab in the dark. In 2006 Condalica Rice stated that Iraq could easily handle an RV @ $0.82. I factored in 6% inflation over five years and came up with $1.09. (Problem solved for us!)

At that rate, it's close enough to 1:1 for an easy exchange of currency, making the Dinar slightly more valuable than the dollar, ( Which should prompt the Iraqi people to make the exchange). (Problem solved for them).

This rate would provide the CBI several opportunities to RV over the coming years to get it where they want it to be, (More valuable than the Kuwaiti dinar), and still allow them to make a ton of money through

the exchange, (which is what Adam has stated he thinks they might do). (Problem solved for the CBI & GOI). Makes sense to me.

Keep in mind that I'm no economist or mathematician, and my diclaimer would have to be about a mile long!

Can you find a link to what Rice said? That would be a substantial find.

Back to on-topic. I am sure a $1 would be reasonable if they could sustain it.. But that is the better question, can they sustain it?

Maybe they can, but would it be wise to come out high, or would it be better to come out low and draw in speculative notes prior to maxing out your rate?

[Blyane]

After much consideration - and having been over there experiencing life there with the people and what they have to go through, after reading every one's opinion on this matter - I will go with:

1 IQD = $1.18 USD for the first 6 months. After that - I see it increasing to 1 IQD = $3.03 USD.

It will never be higher than $3.50 per IQD.

JMO~

[RONIN II]

Can you find a link to what Rice said? That would be a substantial find.

Back to on-topic. I am sure a $1 would be reasonable if they could sustain it.. But that is the better question, can they sustain it?

Maybe they can, but would it be wise to come out high, or would it be better to come out low and draw in speculative notes prior to maxing out your rate?

Darin, I'm pretty sure I read it somewhere here on DinarVets, as I don't go anywhere else for Dinar info. I'm pretty sure it was about the time I joined, I'll make a search.

[roux]

I think it HAS to at least be something above 1:1 or noone would give up USD for it. Also, just curious - are you writing a thesis for an advanced degree? If so, what degree?

[Darin]

Darin, I'm pretty sure I read it somewhere here on DinarVets, as I don't go anywhere else for Dinar info. I'm pretty sure it was about the time I joined, I'll make a search.

I don't care for the "search" function on this site very much.. You can't ever really find what you are looking for.

You'd almost be better going to google, typing out the key strings necessary, and you'll find the topic you were talking about on DV.

Ironically, I've had better luck that route. Who would of thought, right?

[Hopeful Leo]

I have no flipping idea....will be curious to read Adam's thesis. We all want YOUR opinion, not eachother's.

Edited October 24, 2011 by Hopeful Leo

[uncirculd]

Well Adam, I think you have plenty to start with. lol

[coleman619]

Naive question I'm sure, but if the rate came in at 1 to 1 how does that dedollarize Iraq? Are the Iraqi people who make 2 to 4 thousand dinar a month going to sit back and say hooray and keep the dinar or are they going to go right out and exchange them for dollars straight up? Why would they not? They would become instant millionaires. And who is going to enforce this exchange? Will foreign investors have to take a 1 to 1 exchange? Does Iraqi oil production change to Dinar instead of petro-dollars? This exchange rate would cause a run on the dollar and where would those dollars come from considering there are 935,000 dinar per Iraqi citizen. Are Dinar investors on this site going to dedollarize and buy more Dinar at 1 to 1 because it's worth more now? No, of course not. So why would an Iraqi. A $3 to 1 exchange? So Iraq just declares itself the wealthiest nation on earth by cashing in 29 trillion dinar for 87 trillion dollars? There's only 10.2 trillion dollars in circulation. Seems to me any exchange rate approaching 1 to 1 would simply cause extreme hyper inflation in Iraq and make a bad situation worse. A strong Dinar would only cripple exports at this delicate time. China has an artificially weak yuan that's killing us in order to get cheap exports to the U.S.

What am I missing here? Please educate me.

You are not missing anything.

The problem is...nobody wants to hear anything other than we will all be instant millionaires.

[pudge]

You are not missing anything.

The problem is...nobody wants to hear anything other than we will all be instant millionaires.

Yes, I am beginning to think so

[ssmith]

Yes, I am beginning to think so

PUDGE, I knew we could convert you lol...now tell us what you really think ...lol

[pureau79]

I still think we're looking at $.10... IF there are 27T IQD in the Iraqi coffers, a $.10 rate coupled with a managed float over time will bring the amount of circulated currency to a more reasonable level and thereby increase its value as opposed to hyperinflating the currency. Twenty-seven TRILLION Dinar cannot become twenty-seven trillion dollars overnight. Iraq's GDP would take years to catch up and my opinion is that it would destabilize and possibly collapse their economy.

Naive question I'm sure, but if the rate came in at 1 to 1 how does that dedollarize Iraq? Are the Iraqi people who make 2 to 4 thousand dinar a month going to sit back and say hooray and keep the dinar or are they going to go right out and exchange them for dollars straight up? Why would they not? They would become instant millionaires. And who is going to enforce this exchange? Will foreign investors have to take a 1 to 1 exchange? Does Iraqi oil production change to Dinar instead of petro-dollars? This exchange rate would cause a run on the dollar and where would those dollars come from considering there are 935,000 dinar per Iraqi citizen. Are Dinar investors on this site going to dedollarize and buy more Dinar at 1 to 1 because it's worth more now? No, of course not. So why would an Iraqi. A $3 to 1 exchange? So Iraq just declares itself the wealthiest nation on earth by cashing in 29 trillion dinar for 87 trillion dollars? There's only 10.2 trillion dollars in circulation. Seems to me any exchange rate approaching 1 to 1 would simply cause extreme hyper inflation in Iraq and make a bad situation worse. A strong Dinar would only cripple exports at this delicate time. China has an artificially weak yuan that's killing us in order to get cheap exports to the U.S.

What am I missing here? Please educate me.

If only I had read all the way to the bottom... All I would have needed to type is: I concur.

[Rossenbos]

I'm in the 1: 1 camp, Adam.

I'm puzzled why you ask though? You are not going to average of all us amateurs to scientifically assess the rate are you :-)?

Remember this story ( put it in your thesis...):

So this white pioneer is in Canada for the first year and decides to chop wood for the winter. He doesn't know how cold it can get, so he chops merrily away. Wnen he spots a native canadian in the woods, he thinks "hmm....these chaps are close to nature. And they're natives." So he goes and asks him:

"dude, can you tell me what kind of winter we get here?"

And the native Canadian says: "This might be a very cold one this time. A cold winter, yes...."

So the white boy chops away and away, making a huge stack.

Then he sees the Medicine Man and thinks: "These native Canadians get their intel from this dude. I need to check with him too."

So he asks him: "O big Medicine Dude. What kind of winter will get this year?"

And the Medicine Man closes his eyes, takes a puff and says..... "Most likely one of the coldest winters ever!!"

And the white pioneer chops and chops and chops. More and more wood is stacked up.

Then one day, he meets the Chief. He's on his white horse and the pioneer decides to have a go at him.

"Oh Great Chief, what kind of winter will we get?"

And the Chief takes a deep breath, looks around and says: "We will get the coldest winter ever!!"

And the pioneer is in awe and says "My Golly, how do you guys know these things???"

And the Chief says: "Simple. We've never seen a white guy chop that much wood!"

[RONIN II]

I don't care for the "search" function on this site very much.. You can't ever really find what you are looking for.

You'd almost be better going to google, typing out the key strings necessary, and you'll find the topic you were talking about on DV.

Ironically, I've had better luck that route. Who would of thought, right?

I was unable to copy and paste the link, but I did find a reference on google if you'd like to look it up.

Search for: "Pin the tail and the reval-review"