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To Bondlady.....


keepmwlknfny
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Keep, thank you for the clarification regarding your reply to BondLady. I understand now your concern and a bit more about your reply to her. In writing, many people who go so quickly to the heart of the matter seem to be abrasive when that is simply not their intention at all. It seems you merely wanted her to discuss with you more of her views regarding the RV versus the RD (I think it's called). I appreciate your efforts to clarify this, and although I can't speak for her, I suspect that, after reading this, BondLady will appreciate it, too.

Again, thanks.

Francie26

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andy3978, on 10 October 2011 - 01:47 PM, said:

The "Deletion of the 3 Zeroes" can mean one of three things.

1) Remove the 000 off of the notes (LOP). Ex: 25,000 IQD Note becomes 25IQD Note

2) Remove 000 off the exchange rate. Ex: 1USD = 0.00085IQD becomes 1USD = 0.85IQD

3) Removing (physically) the 000 notes from circulation. Ex: Daily auctions bring 200 billion IQD into the CBI; the CBI then destroys these notes effectively removing them from circulation and from the money supply.

For all intents and purposes every announcement from the CBI seems to point to them doing #1 on the list quickly followed by a 3:1 Re-Valuation. This is a RD/RV. BAD for us.

However as I have pointed out in the past, #3 has been going on right in front of our faces for many years now. IF, and that is a BIG 'if', the CBI is in fact actually doing #3 and removing these 000 notes from circulation, then their money supply is shrinking each day and would position us for a FAT Re-Valuation. Now the money supply figures that are being put out there do not suggest that the CBI is actually shrinking the money supply via the auctions, but who really knows what's going on behind the scenes? If they actually were doing #3 with the purpose of a straight RV, would they blatantly tell us in the media? I don't think so, however I do not live on cloud 9 so I wouldn't be surprised one way or the other anymore.

THIS LOWER SECTION WAS POSTED BY BEENTHERE! BOTH FROM A DIFFERENT FORUM

No they have not been removing large notes from circulation, I live in iraq and you couldnt do anything without large bills

it would be like removing the $100, $50, and $20 from circ in the states

and you cannot prove that they are taking the large bills that story is just plain pumpology

and the removal of the zero's means dropping them from both the exchange rate and the currency at the same time

how? you ask

with the new currency mandated by the erbil agreement

that has the english arabic and kurdish writing on it

thats right folks a nuetral event to the consumer but a positive event for the GOI

in as much as they will be reducing thier numbers down to a managable figure

trillions become billions

the LOP takes place all across the board

warka, the CBI contracts and your pocket

the new and old bills will be used simultaneously just like venezuela did when they RD'd

the bill has been sent to parlement and will get either an up or down vote

but thats the plan

so

quit dreaming

and spreading BS

I live and work here

and have for many years now

I know

you can only GUESS

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No matter how polite you are, correct answers never come out of anyone one any of these sites

No, the correct answers come to us in the news releases. Some of them have been written by western news agencies, and the content is very clear.

The correct answers is what causes the various forex sites warn against Iraq's plan to ReDenominate.

The correct answers are flowing in the running commentary in the Iraqi press about the difficulty the plan to ReDenominate is facing.

The correct answers are causing press agencies world wide to give coverage to the lack of unity in the government, and the fear of a Maliki dictatorship.

However, few, if any correct answers came from the dinar selling gurus, or anyone that refuses to believe the news coming out of Iraq from the press, first hand accounts of folks who have been there in the past or are still there.

Like Keep, I have respect for anyone that try's to explain news articles, and Bondlady devotes a lot of time and effort to give a very balanced approach in doing so.

Just so there is no doubt, dropping zeros refers to one thing, and one thing only; redenomination.

Dropping Zeros - Currency Redenomination in Developing Countries

The mechanism is always the same. If they drop 3 zeros, it is a divide by 1000 process; everything is treated the same. While the notes are divided by 1000 the exchange rate becomes 1000 times larger, so no value is gained or lost. This is the basic facts of currency redenomination. They do not change from country to country or situation to situation. All that changes are the number of zeros that need to be dropped to remove the effects of PAST hyperinflation from the currency. The number of zeros determines the divisor.

The plan below explains this in great detail...

Fundamental Aspects of Currency Redenomination

Like Keep, I applaud Bondlady's great contributions to the Dinar world.

Redenomination is the plan that Shabibi is pushing. It is getting bad press, and stonewalling by Maliki. It may be a long time before it is done, but it will have to be done sometime in the future before confidence can be restored in the currency and the country's desire to exit third world status.

There will likely be increases in the exchange rate between now and then.

There may be some "plan" where redenomination affects only Iraq, and not the speculators, but I wouldn't plan my future around that happening.

Never say never, and anything can still happen..

What we do and plan in the meantime is the best choice of discussion, as well as the best way to come out the other side of the new currency exchange with the least spread, so we can hold the new currency and ride it up as it increases in value.

There is a lot of combined knowledge and creativity here in the DV family. The quicker we admit to the possibilities and plan together to find the best way out of any possible outcome, the better off each will be.

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***************************************************************************

If Con is the Opposite of Pro, what is the Opposite of Progress??

Go Figure.........

***************************************************************************

Regression?

I don't know....What?

hahaaa

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***************************************************************************

If Con is the Opposite of Pro, what is the Opposite of Progress??

Go Figure.........

***************************************************************************

Regression?

I don't know....What?

hahaaa

Congress ....... think thats what your looking for

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So if a country changes their currency buy putting out lower currency, they redenominate and say you have the 25k note and they give you a 25note. So would they introduce lower currency and take back higher currency in exchange for lower currency? No one knows how this will affect the exchange rate - PERIOD. Not Blondlady nor ADAM.

They could do what US did and delete the 1000 bill and exchange it for the new 100, which then you get 10 one hundred dollar bills. If they Lop they won't be accepted to WTO nor would investors back them knowing that they are going to destroy their success by lopping and waiting several more years before becoming traded again. Also other countries would not have forgiven their debt in the large amounts as they did knowing it was a wash. There is always something that we don't know. So everyone needs to sit back and watch the show. NEVER plan your life around this, work hard and have a good life. If this happens great, if we break even okay, if we lose that sucks but that's life.

Good luck everyone.

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ty bamagirl for pointing me to this thread as i never saw it before my post this morning, i do believe i covered any thing i had to say about it in the other thread today, i also apoligise for not being so nice in it too, but your tone last night left a lot to be desired for me to talk to u, and again i thank you for your conciderate responses in this thread, now i really have a lot of work to do, ill try to find some time later to check back in, again thank you, BondLady

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KeepM

You really need to maintain open-minded. First, we would all be "naive" to think that the media would try to make it appear as if the Delete the Zeros, Lift the Zeros, or Remove the Zeros leads to a straigh-up R/V. It is actually the contrary, what the media is likely being pressured to do is make it appear as if the upcoming event is "value-neutral." It is the best line of defense for their currency. Why? Suppresses speculators from purchasing the currency with the idea it'll appreciate quickly and as fast as a substantial overnight R/V. Suppresses locals from deciding to avoid IQD as it may lose value. Long-story short, it'll help stabilize the economy or help maintain stabilization.

So you ask why we should be excited about the removal of the 3 zero articles. Simply put, some of us do not have the slightest idea of how this will go down. R/V, R/D, a R/D with a rate adjustment (Hybrid), long-term scenario of slow appreciation, or other possibilities. The 3 zero articles indicate that the ride is almost over. For many of us, the ending of the ride may very well be what many of us want. No more roller coaster riding, no more being pumped, lied to, etc. The articles could be excatly what they are, a R/D @ 1000:1. However, they could also be a value-neutral way to prepare the economy for lower denominations. R/D or R/V, either way, the locals need to be informed about lower denominations so they can recognize them & use them in the market.

I have become torn on which side has the best interests of their own people (which would also include us as speculators). We hear rumors of M looking to become a dictator, having Iran in the back pocket, other influences, and possibly looking to keep the people poor. We also have to look at what the CBI puts out to the media. They're the ones saying over & over, remove the zeros.. Maybe that is their true intention. Well, what is taking so long than? Maybe parliament understands that it doesn't fix the problem. It doesn't bring wealth to the people. It is more of a band-aid fix, than anything. We have heard "soon" since April of 2011, and possibly before that.

Everyone is speculating... Some people have changed their views, which include some being on the Go R/V train to full-blown Lop believers. Is one side more correct than the other? We don't know at this moment. Some have sold off entirely thinking it was a wasted investment... Some have pursued other interests such as precious metals. We've heard crazy rumors (good & bad) and reasonable rumors that appear we're looking at waiting awhile. They move slow over there, they accomplish tasks at a snails pace, and when we dig deeper we find out our perception can be entirely off.

We have to look at what their aspirations are....

To be the dominent currency in the M.E.?

To become an international reserve currency?

To become internationally traded?

In my opinion, if they desire the above (especially all 3), I see a high probability of a R/V.

If they don't, I foresee a R/D. - Why not reduce the liabilities....

I hope to walk away from this thinking, I made a great choice of an investment.. Making anywhere from a modest profit, decent profit, to a great profit.

When the switch gets pulled, we will find out...

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KeepM

You really need to maintain open-minded. First, we would all be "naive" to think that the media would try to make it appear as if the Delete the Zeros, Lift the Zeros, or Remove the Zeros leads to a straigh-up R/V. It is actually the contrary, what the media is likely being pressured to do is make it appear as if the upcoming event is "value-neutral." It is the best line of defense for their currency. Why? Suppresses speculators from purchasing the currency with the idea it'll appreciate quickly and as fast as a substantial overnight R/V. Suppresses locals from deciding to avoid IQD as it may lose value. Long-story short, it'll help stabilize the economy or help maintain stabilization.

So you ask why we should be excited about the removal of the 3 zero articles. Simply put, some of us do not have the slightest idea of how this will go down. R/V, R/D, a R/D with a rate adjustment (Hybrid), long-term scenario of slow appreciation, or other possibilities. The 3 zero articles indicate that the ride is almost over. For many of us, the ending of the ride may very well be what many of us want. No more roller coaster riding, no more being pumped, lied to, etc. The articles could be excatly what they are, a R/D @ 1000:1. However, they could also be a value-neutral way to prepare the economy for lower denominations. R/D or R/V, either way, the locals need to be informed about lower denominations so they can recognize them & use them in the market.

I have become torn on which side has the best interests of their own people (which would also include us as speculators). We hear rumors of M looking to become a dictator, having Iran in the back pocket, other influences, and possibly looking to keep the people poor. We also have to look at what the CBI puts out to the media. They're the ones saying over & over, remove the zeros.. Maybe that is their true intention. Well, what is taking so long than? Maybe parliament understands that it doesn't fix the problem. It doesn't bring wealth to the people. It is more of a band-aid fix, than anything. We have heard "soon" since April of 2011, and possibly before that.

Everyone is speculating... Some people have changed their views, which include some being on the Go R/V train to full-blown Lop believers. Is one side more correct than the other? We don't know at this moment. Some have sold off entirely thinking it was a wasted investment... Some have pursued other interests such as precious metals. We've heard crazy rumors (good & bad) and reasonable rumors that appear we're looking at waiting awhile. They move slow over there, they accomplish tasks at a snails pace, and when we dig deeper we find out our perception can be entirely off.

We have to look at what their aspirations are....

To be the dominent currency in the M.E.?

To become an international reserve currency?

To become internationally traded?

In my opinion, if they desire the above (especially all 3), I see a high probability of a R/V.

If they don't, I foresee a R/D. - Why not reduce the liabilities....

I hope to walk away from this thinking, I made a great choice of an investment.. Making anywhere from a modest profit, decent profit, to a great profit.

When the switch gets pulled, we will find out...

I couldn't agree more! Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride. We as speculators have about as much control over this investment as we do controlling the earth's weather cycles...nil!

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Keep thanks for starting this thread. I have no idea how this will turn out but like everyone else am trying to make sense of all of the confusing information that's out there.

The CBI articles seem pretty clear about wanting to reduce the money supply and remove the 3 zeroes. The big question of course is how will this 'deletion' play out.

I am not naive enough to think that a LOP can't or won't happen. Anything can happen with this investment and, since it's Iraq, it will usually take 100 times as long as it should to have that 'anything' happen. ;)

I am having trouble wrapping my head around how the numbers can work if they do indeed do a straight LOP like they are saying they will.

Here are my thoughts on it:

News reports say that they will reduce the money supply from $30 trillion to $30 billion. The CBI has said that they have $58 billion in cash reserves. Assuming both of these statements are true, then if they do a straight LOP the value of each dinar should be approximately 2 dollars per dinar just from cash reserves alone. However, they don't just have cash reserves. Iraq also has oil and natural gas.

Iraq has said that they wish to increase production to 12 million barrels per day but right now they are in the 2-3 million range. If we assume that Iraq makes at least $30 from each barrel of oil they produce and they pump 3 million barrels per day that gives them $90 million/day or approximately $3 trillion/year.

This asset must be taken into account when valuing their currency. Not to mention natural gas which has a value as well.

IF just the oil assets of $3 trillion are taken into account just for one year and they reduce the money supply from $30T to $30B (true lop), the value of their currency would need to be $2 (for their cash reserves) plus at least $10 (1 year of oil assets.) That would make the dinar the largest valued currency in the world by about 4 times which I just don't see happening.

So, to me, if they do a straight LOP they would either come in too low for their assets and have to readjust their currency again shortly thereafter or they would need to properly value their assets in which case they would come in at a value that is way too high compared to the rest of the world.

The better choice of course is to properly value their assets from the start but .... how can that be accomplished with a straight LOP?

Okay, so IF all of this is true how does it fit in with all of the 25,000 dinar = 25 dinar articles? When Iraq does whatever they are going to do with their currency it's going to affect a lot more than just the currency. For example, loans, contracts, rental agreements, store prices, cost of goods, etc. What if the articles are to educate the people that the change in currency won't affect these items? It is telling them 'hey, don't worry and don't freak out when they change comes' everything that you previously paid 25,000 dinar for which was a 25 dinar value you will still be paying 25 dinar for.

I have no idea if this is correct or not and again I understand that a LOP is definitely possible. I just don't see how the numbers work with a true LOP much less how it benefits them in any way other than they 'feel good' about carrying around a 25 dinar note instead of a 25,000 note and it makes accounting easier.

Like everyone else, I'm just trying to figure out what these confusing 'delete the zeroes' articles are saying but I just don't see how the numbers work if the delete the zeroes means a straight LOP.

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Sonny1, you got smoked in the last debate. Respectfully, you brought no facts. the facts dont lay out anyway for the straight rv theme. although, i take keepm in this debate against both bondlady and you. the stats are not in your favor a lop is possible. id love to see you come fully armed with anything that concrete, rather than they could, or say like it wont happen. we want substance or dont bother debating. and that fact the cbi is saying lop cant be denied. We all want a rv, but im from the "show me state", i dont believe hings just because they sound good.

Of course this is just ur opinion right? Seeing as u bring no facts,so why not just chill.

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