Scooters new post

[TonyDownTheShore]

http://emerginggeos.blogspot.com/2011/10/scooter-post-world-bank-assesment-of.html

Enjoy

[burn_the_village]

Thanks for promoting that new awesome site! wheeeee!!

[RickOhio]

Scooter is deep!

[matlok12]

Man....Scooter is one smart guy....no matter his stance on this investment he puts things together very well and the research he does is amazing!!!!

[xyzzy]

Maybe there is great info here. But there is also misleading info. I have not read it all, I just went over the parts he has in large fonts. The piece at the end is what I think is the problem. Here he says

Here is the good news - they have a lot of oil and gas and can export it to other countries. As a result their GDP will reflect that and it will have an impact on their currency. How much is the question. Remember Jordan is a non-oil exporting country but their exchange reate is $1.39 (one Jordan dinar is valued at $1.39 to the USD).

Ok so the first two sentences are quite reasonable. But how about the last one? If your goal is good analysis then it makes no sense to compare two exchange rates in isolation. Its meaningless unless you also factor in the size of their money supply and GDP. So Jordan's GDP is around $20B USD (about the same as Iraq's once you take away the oil exports) but their M2 is only 20B dinars, at least 1,000 times smaller if not 3,000 times smaller than Iraq's. So if we are to take Jordan as a model what does this tell us? That as long as the Iraqi money supply is in the 10s of trillions, it isn't going to get to the dollar parity range, as there is just to much of it. Even if Iraq can pump 3 or 4x their current amount of iol (getting into the 10Mbpd region, like Saudi Arabia) and even if that provides a 3-4x boost to GDP and even if they keep the grown of their money supply down (which they have not been doing) so that that could give a 3-4x boost to the value of the dinar, they still would have an exchange rate under 1 penny. They have to reduce their money supply by at least 100x if not 1000x to get their exchange rate to dollar parity even if they increase GDP by a huge amount over the next few years. Thus a RD (new currency for old deleting the zeros) must happen before the Iraqi dinar will get to dollar parity.

Edited October 8, 2011 by xyzzy

[ssmith]

Maybe there is great info here. But there is also misleading info. I have not read it all, I just went over the parts he has in large fonts. The piece at the end is what I think is the problem. Here he says

Ok so the first two sentences are quite reasonable. But how about the last one? If your goal is good analysis then it makes no sense to compare two exchange rates in isolation. Its meaningless unless you also factor in the size of their money supply and GDP. So Jordan's GDP is around $20B USD (about the same as Iraq's once you take away the oil exports) but their M2 is only 20B dinars, at least 1,000 times smaller if not 3,000 times smaller than Iraq's. So if we are to take Jordan as a model what does this tell us? That as long as the Iraqi money supply is in the 10s of trillions, it isn't going to get to the dollar parity range, as there is just to much of it. Even if Iraq can pump 3 or 4x their current amount of iol (getting into the 10Mbpd region, like Saudi Arabia) and even if that provides a 3-4x boost to GDP and even if they keep the grown of their money supply down (which they have not been doing) so that that could give a 3-4x boost to the value of the dinar, they still would have an exchange rate under 1 penny. They have to reduce their money supply by at least 100x if not 1000x to get their exchange rate to dollar parity even if they increase GDP by a huge amount over the next few years. Thus a RD (new currency for old deleting the zeros) must happen before the Iraqi dinar will get to dollar parity.

Your good.. +1, keep everybody & everything in check:)

[DayTrader]

Maybe there is great info here. But there is also misleading info. I have not read it all, I just went over the parts he has in large fonts. The piece at the end is what I think is the problem. Here he says

Ok so the first two sentences are quite reasonable. But how about the last one? If your goal is good analysis then it makes no sense to compare two exchange rates in isolation. Its meaningless unless you also factor in the size of their money supply and GDP. So Jordan's GDP is around $20B USD (about the same as Iraq's once you take away the oil exports) but their M2 is only 20B dinars, at least 1,000 times smaller if not 3,000 times smaller than Iraq's. So if we are to take Jordan as a model what does this tell us? That as long as the Iraqi money supply is in the 10s of trillions, it isn't going to get to the dollar parity range, as there is just to much of it. Even if Iraq can pump 3 or 4x their current amount of iol (getting into the 10Mbpd region, like Saudi Arabia) and even if that provides a 3-4x boost to GDP and even if they keep the grown of their money supply down (which they have not been doing) so that that could give a 3-4x boost to the value of the dinar, they still would have an exchange rate under 1 penny. They have to reduce their money supply by at least 100x if not 1000x to get their exchange rate to dollar parity even if they increase GDP by a huge amount over the next few years. Thus a RD (new currency for old deleting the zeros) must happen before the Iraqi dinar will get to dollar parity.

Why don't you quit telling people what Iraq is doing with their currency. You do not know. You have no idea what is really going on. You're not near as smart as Scooter son. Now, that is a fact. Everybody, just sit back and relax. So Says...............DayTrader

[xyzzy]

Why don't you quit telling people what Iraq is doing with their currency. You do not know. You have no idea what is really going on. You're not near as smart as Scooter son. Now, that is a fact. Everybody, just sit back and relax. So Says...............DayTrader

If you want to take the view that the numbers the CBI has been putting out for years are all totally bogus then indeed that would say we have no idea what is going on. Under that view the dinar might be worth more, or less than we estimate. I don't think that is a reasonable view given the scrutiny of the IMF and Iraq's desire to join the international community. But, you are welcome to do your own analysis by whatever means you like with whatever assumptions you like. I will comment only that it seems common that those who do not like the result of someone else's analysis but can not counter it, tend to just insult the presenter. That doesn't seem particularly useful to anyone.

[matlok12]

Maybe there is great info here. But there is also misleading info. I have not read it all, I just went over the parts he has in large fonts. The piece at the end is what I think is the problem. Here he says

Ok so the first two sentences are quite reasonable. But how about the last one? If your goal is good analysis then it makes no sense to compare two exchange rates in isolation. Its meaningless unless you also factor in the size of their money supply and GDP. So Jordan's GDP is around $20B USD (about the same as Iraq's once you take away the oil exports) but their M2 is only 20B dinars, at least 1,000 times smaller if not 3,000 times smaller than Iraq's. So if we are to take Jordan as a model what does this tell us? That as long as the Iraqi money supply is in the 10s of trillions, it isn't going to get to the dollar parity range, as there is just to much of it. Even if Iraq can pump 3 or 4x their current amount of iol (getting into the 10Mbpd region, like Saudi Arabia) and even if that provides a 3-4x boost to GDP and even if they keep the grown of their money supply down (which they have not been doing) so that that could give a 3-4x boost to the value of the dinar, they still would have an exchange rate under 1 penny. They have to reduce their money supply by at least 100x if not 1000x to get their exchange rate to dollar parity even if they increase GDP by a huge amount over the next few years. Thus a RD (new currency for old deleting the zeros) must happen before the Iraqi dinar will get to dollar parity.

You know.....all of this information can be twisted to support a RV or RD. Unfortunately I believe it will RD, people can call me a lopper or negative or whatever else...and I cant discuss economics like some of you guys can, as a matter of fact the only education Ive gotten in economics is from this site. The fact of the matter is none of you,including scooter or yourself, can predict how this will go because of your knowledge or research, it is rather annoying though, you are always quick to jump in and throw your knowledge around to try and prove someone wrong. I know...bring something to the debate....whatever, your intention is not to enlighten people, its to prove how right you are. You took one small piece of scooters research to try and disprove him. Taking one thing from the whole to prove a point is taking something out of context, which just proves your intentions...and it gets old. Im not here to discredit you, or prove you dont know what your talking about. You obviously are an educated individual well versed in economics and you bring valid info to the table. However your intentions are plain as day and anyone whos been here for a bit knows who you are and why your here....its a free country and yes I respect Adam for the way he runs his site in respect to free speech and open debate, but your ego and intelligence is annoying and honestly it could be put to much better use.

[xyzzy]

You know.....all of this information can be twisted to support a RV or RD. Unfortunately I believe it will RD, people can call me a lopper or negative or whatever else...and I cant discuss economics like some of you guys can, as a matter of fact the only education Ive gotten in economics is from this site. The fact of the matter is none of you,including scooter or yourself, can predict how this will go because of your knowledge or research, ...

I disagree. We certainly can not predict exactly how it will go, but all we are attempting to do is look at orders of magnitude sorts of analysis and place some bounds on what might happen. That I think is quite reasonable.

it is rather annoying though, you are always quick to jump in and throw your knowledge around to try and prove someone wrong. I know...bring something to the debate....whatever, your intention is not to enlighten people, its to prove how right you are.

You are welcome to your opinion. How is it that providing misleading information is enlightening but correcting it is not?

You took one small piece of scooters research to try and disprove him. Taking one thing from the whole to prove a point is taking something out of context, which just proves your intentions...and it gets old.

I took his closing point that he put out in a big font to grab your attention. I also specifically said here is likely good info here and focused my comments on the information not the person.

Im not here to discredit you, or prove you dont know what your talking about. You obviously are an educated individual well versed in economics and you bring valid info to the table. However your intentions are plain as day and anyone whos been here for a bit knows who you are and why your here....its a free country and yes I respect Adam for the way he runs his site in respect to free speech and open debate, but your ego and intelligence is annoying and honestly it could be put to much better use.

So you're not here to discredit me but your main point is that my motives are bad. You want honest open debate but you don't want anyone to show another post is in error. I can't say I understand what you want. If my post rubbed you the wrong way somehow, that certainly was not my intent. My intent was only to show that having lots of shinny facts and figures that look most impressive, does not imply the analysis is reasonable. I only want to push people to think about what they read instead of just jumping on the "wow this is deep man, GO-RV" bandwagon. Edited October 8, 2011 by xyzzy

[RodandStaff]

http://emerginggeos....sesment-of.html

Enjoy

Thanks Tony... I will have to buy some shoreline so you truly can be "down the shore" ... I have really missed Scooters input, so thanks for bringing it to the table. And thanks to Scooter for what analysis he provides!

GO RV Already Baby!!!

Edited October 8, 2011 by RodandStaff

[George Hayduke]

http://emerginggeos.blogspot.com/2011/10/scooter-post-world-bank-assesment-of.html

Enjoy

I'm not sure where he is going with this. It is an attractive site with a great deal of effort put into the presentation of what I gather to be an illustration of the impending global success of the Dinar. It might just be me but the site appears to imply the IQD not only has to revalue but will do so in such a grand manner as to approach the level of Messianic Currency. However, the side bar blogs/sites reveal articles strongly written explaining the unavoidable and soon to occur collapse of the worlds financial markets.

It seems to me that if the world financial markets and current financial system collapse, then the IQD would collapse as well. Where is the joy in that and what is Scooter really trying to say?

[TonyDownTheShore]

Thanks Tony... I will have to buy some shoreline so you truly can be "down the shore" ... I have really missed Scooters input, so thanks for bringing it to the table. And thanks to Scooter for what analysis he provides!

GO RV Already Baby!!!

Your welcome RondandStaff, I enjoy Scooters post too, and it seems that there's different opinions and always brings debates, as long as people have a healthy debate it's fine, I just don't want people getting mad at each other, we're all here for the same reason.

I'm not sure where he is going with this. It is an attractive site with a great deal of effort put into the presentation of what I gather to be an illustration of the impending global success of the Dinar. It might just be me but the site appears to imply the IQD not only has to revalue but will do so in such a grand manner as to approach the level of Messianic Currency. However, the side bar blogs/sites reveal articles strongly written explaining the unavoidable and soon to occur collapse of the worlds financial markets.

It seems to me that if the world financial markets and current financial system collapse, then the IQD would collapse as well. Where is the joy in that and what is Scooter really trying to say?

I also agree that Scooter is saying that it should revalue at a greater rate than the 1 to 1 everybody is saying and do it quick too, but I disagree that they would collapse, most countrys economy are on the way down, and I think Iraq is on the way up, they can't go down much more, jmo.

[ChrisGo]

I disagree. We certainly can not predict exactly how it will go, but all we are attempting to do is look at orders of magnitude sorts of analysis and place some bounds on what might happen. That I think is quite reasonable.

You are welcome to your opinion. How is it that providing misleading information is enlightening but correcting it is not?

I took his closing point that he put out in a big font to grab your attention. I also specifically said here is likely good info here and focused my comments on the information not the person.

So you're not here to discredit me but your main point is that my motives are bad. You want honest open debate but you don't want anyone to show another post is in error. I can't say I understand what you want. If my post rubbed you the wrong way somehow, that certainly was not my intent. My intent was only to show that having lots of shinny facts and figures that look most impressive, does not imply the analysis is reasonable. I only want to push people to think about what they read instead of just jumping on the "wow this is deep man, GO-RV" bandwagon.

Wheres Rodney.... Hello Rodney!!!! Why can't we all just get along! Rodney help usRodneeeeeeyyyy!

[MrDinarman]

<_<

[billbill]

Thanks Tony! Scooter does a great job and I enjoy his posts.

[umbertino]

Wheres Rodney.... Hello Rodney!!!! Why can't we all just get along! Rodney help usRodneeeeeeyyyy!

I hope for him that he's somewhere still enoying his ( if I recall correctly) 4 Million bucks...I'm not by any means saying that's bad...

I still remember landing at LAX on April,29 ( my b-day) 1992 at 6:00 PM with a perfect timing ... The riots had just began after learning about the all cops -aquittal verdict from that all-white jury in Simi Valley... I had 3 or 4 days of curfew in LA.... Saw lots of smoke in the distance and truckloads of Nat'l Guard all the time.... I was scared lke everybody else.

Edited October 8, 2011 by umbertino

[capt.cliff]

since no one really knows the inside scoop about rates ,dates, currenecy inside and outside of Iraq, shabbs plans, the Goi's intentions, IMF, Treasary--pick one, UN and a host of others ---IMHO all these sites are the best smoke and mirrors Iraq can hope for Free--they could say buying new shoes for the children and most will think they must be using RV'd dinar How could they afford it--f-16's, housing, ports, refineries, tarriffs, unrest, allawi, malacki, vacations---it is all working in their favor just by us, and all like us around the world--we are not the only ones spectulating---take a step back let this unfold and the cards fall where they may--good or bad---just driving ourselves crazy !

capt1951