The Real Story On The Dinar!

[burn_the_village]

An RV has to get through Parliament for it to become a reality.

Just starting recently it is being emphasized that the Dinar needs to have it's value increased.

BECAUSE there is strong opposition to an RD in Parliament, I would not be surprised to see it fail to get through, leaving a need to increase the value of the Dinar. And that to me, suggests that an RV may be being now considered, and whether an RD occurs or not. My thinking is the ideally for Iraq a small RV would done after an RD. But the opposition to an RD may disallow that. . . and to our prospective advantage.

This is what you are led to believe along with the citizens of IRaq that the GOI is in control but you must understand like most central banks in the world, the CBI does not fall under the government or Maliki and they have sole responsibility for the currency of this country. This was the agreement that was made and the rest of the world expects Iraq to abide by. So CBI is independent but they need to work with the GOI so that laws are legislated to support the policy but the policy comes from CBI not the government...

What is happening is that the GOI will be allowed to use this situation to benefit politically and this will give them more credibility to the people of Iraq even if CBI has to be the fall guy, politically speaking.

What will happen is a bump in the exchange rate and it will be allowed to appreciate.

This is the only logical outcome with this many foreign investors sitting on this currency tightly like its a lotto ticket! Most countries would have never allowed the speculation to go on for so long.

Even in the scenario of a LOP like an RV were cashing out, there's no difference to Iraq because they will be losing billions and NO one will be buying....

Strength for this currency will be built by it overcoming the obstacle of the three zeros through appreciation. Its a long hard road for one dinar to get to one dollar but it can be done and even you will lose faith, you will come back and this will continue to make money for some time.

Everything that is happening is leading to this...

[xyzzy]

yes obviosuly maliki doesnt like the RD plot aand has came out and said it an RV doesnt have to go through parliament The governer can adjust it according to their new budget and what he see fit for the economy and the citzens of Iraq. Shabbs will RV to curb the infaltion what else is there to do?

Sure the exchange rate is a key tool to control inflation. Shabibi has said so clearly before. But to pull inflation back to 5% when its heading maybe to 10% you don't RV by 100,000% .

[xyzzy]

OOOPS! I mistyped. I meant an RD. Sorry about that.

No sweat, I figured that might be the case.

[trexxx]

Sure the exchange rate is a key tool to control inflation. Shabibi has said so clearly before. But to pull inflation back to 5% when its heading maybe to 10% you don't RV by 100,000% .

QUESTION

Why the 100,000% or is that a figure of speech?

TREXXX

[DinarBoyz]

QUESTION

Why the 100,000% or is that a figure of speech?

TREXXX

thats the rate of RV everyone is "expecting"? No?

[xyzzy]

QUESTION

Why the 100,000% or is that a figure of speech?

TREXXX

That is what an RV of 1000:1 that so many here hope for, to make 1 IQD = $0.86 USD would be, an increase in the exchange rate of 100,000% . Looks to be quite impossible to me. Edited September 20, 2011 by xyzzy

[trexxx]

thats the rate of RV everyone is "expecting"? No?

Couldnt tell you my brother, it just seems rather high. I dont expect anything like that for some reason.

TREXXX

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

So your just gonna ignore the questions I put forward for you to answer so you can explain everything to me and the "cronies"? LOL

I didn't think you would answer them anywahys.....like you would even know where to start.....instead you post an article that doesn't have much to do with what we were talking about before.....good job at changing the subject! LOL.....its cool.....I know you have nothing substantial to debate what I brought forward.

Now to your article.....yes that's great, strengthening the dinar.....that can still be achieved in two ways....can you guess what those are? LOL

I hate to break it to you but this doesn't mean straight up that it has to RV......I wish it did....cause I have seen more then a couple like this and used to hang on it like a fly on poop.....hahahaha but remeber, they won't ever come out and say they are going to rv right? But this time its true and they will come right out and say it right?

I no longer have the time nor the energy to waste debating with someone who when given a comparison that is plain as day they are 2 completely different situations historically proven, decides to manipulate those factors that determine them to fit their agenda, because I don't follow your agenda nor do I want to be associated with it!!

The plan is and always has been to RV in order to get the larger notes back in the hands of the CBI and as those notes get cashed in by those who hold them distribute the lower denominations...because you have never been to the ME let alone Iraq I understand that you don't understand cultural differences and the specific verbiage Shabibi would use to create a speculative variation of outcomes in part I fell he would to flush out corrupt individuals within the GOI and in part I feel to not come out directly saying RV so he can confuse counterfeiters and terrorists. After all things he was trained by the IMF who are the best at doing so in an economic stand point. These things are neither here nor there the simple fact of the matter is they will RV to control inflation which will cause the 000's to come back to the CBI for deletion from the marketplace as they distribute the lower denominations with 3 languages on them that is how Shabibi intends to make the currency strong again and it will be supported, until we know the real numbers on everything we will not actually know how. We don't know the results of the geological and geothermal survey that took 7 years to complete, so we really don't know what the reserves could be that could add to the GDP, we don't know if the other central banks and the IMF will push every member to go back to a modified asset based gold standard of some sort that may or may not include in the ground resources, we don't know a rate nor a date for all of this to go down however it will work out...tangible historical evidence points from all directions that since moving from the gold standard monetary policy has spun the global economy and all countries economies into chaotic crisis situation so the historic rhetoric is a flop and does not work it needs to be reformed and backed with tangibles or what is known and could be tangible. We also know your agenda needs to be dropped because it is sickening people and causing people to question their hope and faith, as well as is a waste of time and energy it takes away from my family time which I value much more than you!!

[trexxx]

Guess you are right, that number just looks radically large to me!!!!!

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

An RV is not applied to "control inflation."

Shabibi did it in 2006-2007 to do just that already so yes it does!

[xyzzy]

An RV is not applied to "control inflation."

Usually it would be raising interest rates to slow down the economy, but with Iraq's economy having a huge amount of imports is can be used. Shabibi has indeed said so (and according to Surf, done so), but the scale of the change is tiny compared to what is envisioned by the GO-RV crowd. If the value of dinars is down by 10% with much of what is being bought in the economy being imported you can bump the exchange rate by 15% and increase the value of the dinar for the import percentage of the economy by 15%, so if that was 2/3 then that could compensate for 10% inflation. I think they are looking to keep it under 5% so the RV would not even be as big as 1.15:1, maybe only 1.05:1 . We don't come close to breaking even. Edited September 20, 2011 by xyzzy

[DinarBoyz]

Couldnt tell you my brother, it just seems rather high. I dont expect anything like that for some reason.

TREXXX

Exactly.... it turns everyone's life who holds dinar into a life in fantasy island..... but I can tell you halfway across the globe where you are, here, I have some fervent flers who really believe that it will be USD3 to 1IQD.... at the very least.

[trexxx]

Where are you? and what is a fler?

[DinarBoyz]

Where are you? and what is a fler?

I am here in Malaysia... well,... fler is a local term.. my apologies... its fellows

[trexxx]

Dinarboyz

Well, if they remove the 3 zeros, I think alot of people are going to start crying....................I will be one of those people.

TREXXX

[DinarBoyz]

Dinarboyz

Well, if they remove the 3 zeros, I think alot of people are going to start crying....................I will be one of those people.

TREXXX

Seriously..... I think that is what they will do but deep down... I hope not...

[cashman54]

So is surt implying that the RV will come in at around 20 to 50 cents a dinar, or is he thinking it will actually be $4+ for each dinar

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

Not everyone in Parliament likes the idea of an RD.

no the corrupt parliament members don't like an RV they want an RD because it's going to keep their citizens suppressed and them rich and high in power!! This is why they are balking on the plan because of their socialist agenda's way of oppression upon the Iraqi people is to RD when the plan is to RV and then RD, which RD is what Maliki wants keeps his dictatorship alive!

[DinarBoyz]

no the corrupt parliament members don't like an RV they want an RD because it's going to keep their citizens suppressed and them rich and high in power!! This is why they are balking on the plan because of their socialist agenda's way of oppression upon the Iraqi people is to RD when the plan is to RV and then RD, which RD is what Maliki wants keeps his dictatorship alive!

All the while Maliki is not in favour of an RD.. right? It was Shabibi that was talking about lopping the zeroes... or did I miss something somewhere...

[xyzzy]

no the corrupt parliament members don't like an RV they want an RD because it's going to keep their citizens suppressed and them rich and high in power!!

I don't follow this. An RD has no impact on the distance between rich and poor. An RV magnifies that distance. If these members of parlament are rich and on top of things now, they would be astronomically so after an RV.

[trexxx]

Seriously..... I think that is what they will do but deep down... I hope not...

I know what you mean. I am far from a lopster, I just hate getting blindsided.

I have always felt a small part of me that is the realist or the side that says "if it sounds too good to be true it usually is", but at the same time, this investment felt different. I have posted on many threads stating that this investment is so inexpensive that I cant afford NOT to invest. I only buy what I can afford, and what feels comfortable to me so I dont have to worry about being scammed.

The radical change that is so desperately needed in the world economy could be ignited with just such a turn of events, and I hope Shabibi is as intelligent as they say he is. And, if this radical change does occur, are we responsible enough as a species to handle it - HOW BOUT THEM APPLES?????

TREXXX

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

I don't follow this. An RD has no impact on the distance between rich and poor. An RV magnifies that distance. If these members of parlament are rich and on top of things now, they would be astronomically so after an RV.

if they simply RD there would be no need to change salaries and prices of goods they just get the same in lower denominations further suppressing the Iraqi people. so it keeps the people poor and the GOI rich, while your merchants are upper middle class to rich mostly rich. Which is why they have stated what they will they will do is adjust the salaries of the GOI which was supposed to happen 9/15/2011 to reflect an RV with a RD to follow to get them closer to the adjustment they will do to prices going down and the salaries of people going up, then you add in Tax and Tariff laws and the merchants get balanced out costs more for goods imported, forcing them to open factories and manufacturing, agriculture from within creating jobs for the people. This is why they articles of the teachers salaries going up was so important because it stated their intention to do this without saying the word RV and rather than rich and poor you have a much more level playing field. The whole point of a democracy is "For the People by the People" the intentions of a democratic government should be to reflect the desires of the people while stepping in to aid those in a more dire need, not to control all to benefit the government or personal agendas such as Maliki and Obummer are trying to accomplish in their respective governments.

[xyzzy]

if they simply RD there would be no need to change salaries and prices of goods they just get the same in lower denominations further suppressing the Iraqi people.

So now an Iraqi is making 5,000 IQD per hour, about $4.25 USD which buys a loaf of bread lets say. After an RD his salary does NOT go down??? So now he's still making 5,000 NEW dianar per hour worth $4,250 USD and that loaf of bread still costs the same so it also is worth $4,250? I don't think so. Clearly wages, prices, loans, everything has to be divided by 1000 for an RD.

[Dalite]

All the while Maliki is not in favour of an RD.. right? It was Shabibi that was talking about lopping the zeroes... or did I miss something somewhere...

Maliki favors neither.

He is in favor of the status quo, and him being king.

Shabibi favors RD, and always has.

The most likely next move would be to allow the rate to slip upwards to 1000;1; an increase of 170:1.

This would allow time for the battle to continue in parliament, and the possible removal of Maliki.

In the meantime, the 170 dinar slippage will be a stop gap to try to curb the inflation caused by the increase in oil production revenue.

Additionally, that will set up for a RD, which comes out with the 1:1 ratio Shabibi is shooting for so the dinar will be on parity with the dollar.

As most have pointed out, you don't go squirrel hunting with a .50 Calibre Barrett, and it is highly unlikely that Shabibi's knowledge of economics and monetary systems will allow him to risk a wide scale upward move in the rate as long as the currency still carries the negative effects of past hyperinflation.

But, in the latest move, where Anbunge called together a group of economist and economic advisors in order to continue Maliki's smear campaign on the CBI, the subject of amending CBI law came up.

If allowed to do so, this would be the first step toward Nationalization of the CBI, and placing it under Maliki's control.

If that happens, all bets are off on anything improving.

So, now the playing field opens up to add Military Coup by Maliki, Kurdistan declaring statehood and a separate currency, civil war, nationalization, assassination of Shabibi; all because of Maliki's past and current behavior .

On the positive side, deposing Maliki, having early elections, fully seating the GOI, passing Erbil and the HCL, acknowledging the lines of demarcation with Kuwait and getting released from Chapter 7 could more easily become a reality. If this route is taken, Shabibi can again present the plan to the new parliament.

[DinarBoyz]

The way I see it, they would RD lop off the zeroes and go parity 1USD = 1 (new) IQD... and over a period of time, it may or may not rise to 3.5USD =1IQD.... or it may even surpass 3.5... but its a long walk. Economics is so fluid, there can never be two similar situations, in this case I am referring to Kuwait, which many in my city is stating their case against. Or for the sake of an immediate relief, they may RV it to 1.2USD = 1(New) IQD. 20% increase? over number of years we are holding the Dinars? worth the wait? Well, to me that is reality check. I still believe in a fantasy or rather want to believe in fantasy and as Trexxx rightly said, its a cheap investment for a potential returns... well, I bite... enough for me to make a little decent life for myself at a later age if it all goes well... .