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Call it Coffee Buzz! A late night chat with Enoch8 August 17th


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http://www.cbi.iq/do...nnual_2009f.pdf

Enoch8: Eagle just got his hands on this and published it on the Hub.

Enoch8: That doc is partly where I arrived at some of my own views and data.

Enoch8: I had lost it.... due to forgetting to rename it LOL

Enoch8: Got all excited and forgot to rename it.

Chuckles: yeah my "Iraq info" folder is getting pretty stuffed

Enoch8: ha ha

Enoch8: CBI docs alone is getting a bit large

Chuckles: good times, hope this ride is almost over in terms of seeing something happen

Chuckles: lots of positive things for sure

Enoch8: Did you guys notice, that there were 74 Trillion IQD in liquid assets, in 2009?

Chuckles: some serious coinage

Enoch8: Over and above the budget, I might add.

Chuckles: still Iraq's US reserves are about what roughly 46 billion and what is Kuwait is around 20 billion

Chuckles: at the end of 2010

Enoch8: Right.... and we also pointed out, that the oil and budget is gaining money and adding to that each year.

Enoch8: Good way to ruin an economy.

Enoch8: It might of had to do with one of the development programs or something.

Enoch8: They have the money and do not need to take it from CBI Reserves.

Enoch8: I forget what they wanted it for.

Chuckles: http://www.economywa...s/country/Iraq/

Chuckles: i like the stats on the right when you scroll down

Chuckles: that's 2010

Chuckles: but you've probably seen this

Enoch8: Close.....

Enoch8: Some of that was projected in the MOP doc

Enoch8: Feasibility and de flate-ors.

Enoch8: It also is consistent with oil prices in 1988 and today..... about 630% Inflation on world market.

Enoch8: 1988 Basis year.... there was about $80 Billion worth of ID, in circulation.

Enoch8: That alone means the demand is up by 6.3 times.

Enoch8: My estimate from the MOP doc was that they needed to have about $560 Billion worth in circulation, to be with 1988 standard.....

Enoch8: Today at today's rate... there are on about $26 Billion worth in circulation.

Enoch8: That tells me, they are at least 20 times undervalued, even with $30 Trillion in circulation.

Enoch8: That also does not factor in 35% increase in population or the need additional incomes to double the standard of living from that time.

Chuckles: yeah that is the kicker, and with 80% now having cell phones and internet

Chuckles: the word can travel fast

Enoch8: Right..... and I ain't near done with this...

Enoch8: That tells me..... (Even with $30 Trillion in circulation,) they need a minimum of a 58 to one increase in the Rate.

Enoch8: And....

Enoch8: I am still not done...

Enoch8: The world demand for IQD is at least 5 times that.... due to the fact that international corporations and treasuries are doing 5 times the volume of holding foreign currency reserves..... and Iraq was not even on their radar back then.

Enoch8: That means with all those combined factors..... (Even with 30 Trillion in circulation)..... they could be easily as much as 290 times undervalued.... once it is a recognized currency.

Enoch8: EVEN WITH 30 T in circulation!!!

Enoch8: See it?

Chuckles: yeah crazy

Enoch8: OK.... now dig this....

Enoch8: As of 2009, there was 22 Trillion out of Iraq....

Enoch8: Today that is about 23 Trillion.

Enoch8: That means, about 75% will go to international treasuries and removed from circulation.... and they simply monetize non liquid assets to cover that 75%..... effectively paying for it in futures, etc. by monetizing non liquid assets, that are worth more.

Enoch8: That effectively increases the value another 4 times.

Enoch8: 290 x 4 = 1163 Times increase in the Nominal Rate.

Enoch8: 1163 x .00086 = 1 to 1

Enoch8: Bottom side....

Enoch8: BUT

Enoch8: if that number removed is 85%..... then it is higher.

Enoch8: Roughly about 10 or 15% higher.

Enoch8: How close is that, to the Feasibility number?

Enoch8: $1.134

Enoch8: AND

Enoch8: If they remove soiled bills from circulation once they do this..... or accounting for math errors..... we get to close to the $1.30

Chuckles: hmm, that would be a sweet spot

Enoch8: $1.42 based on the MOP projected de flaitors for 2011.

Enoch8: Yep

Enoch8: 1.00 to about 1.50

Enoch8: And this is used in Traditional Gravity Equations, to arrive at PPP Optimum Equilibrium Exchange Rates.

Enoch8: This is also why it may never increase back to over 3.00.... because it creates a Trade Deficit..... in the non oil sector.

Enoch8: Not good for the people or the economy..... or the stability, to go over that.

Enoch8: This is from some very sharp Harvard Economists and others.

Chuckles: You're on a roll..LOL!

Enoch8: They make me look like a 1st grader!

Enoch8: I just saw your question about CBI (the question was why haven't we seen the DFI funds reflected on the books?)

Enoch8: They could not add those back to these as liquid assets until June 30, 2011 and the audits are not out yet, for how that adds to this.... and not to mention.... there are hundreds of accounts out there, that would add to these amounts.... like the one last week for over $100 Million Dollars.

Enoch8: Who knows how much these other unreleased funds are, exactly?

Enoch8: Saddam had accounts all over the world, hiding and laundering money.

Enoch8: Not to mention his allies.

Enoch8: Copy it and post it in your forum, if you like.

Chuckles: cool, i was gonna ask that

Chuckles: thanks, Peace!

Figures based at the end of 2010

US

Central bank Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Washington) International Reserves US$ 132.375 billion (Source: IMF; Data updated: November 2010) Gross Domestic Product - GDP US$ 15.227 trillion (2010 estimate) GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) 15.227 trillion of International dollars (2010 estimate)

Iraq

Central bank Central Bank of Iraq International Reserves US$ 46.8 billion (31 December 2008 estimate) Gross Domestic Product - GDP US$ 108.418 billion (2010 estimate) GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) 125.665 billion of International dollars (2010 estimate) Real GDP growth

Kuwait

Central bank Central Bank of Kuwait International Reserves US$ 20.267 billion (Source: World Bank; Data updated: December 2009) Gross Domestic Product - GDP US$ 172.778 billion (2009 estimate) GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) 145.292 billion of International dollars (2009 estimate)

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No offfense but how do you get that the world demand for ID is high as ever just because they have trillions in circulation?? That's not feasible considering that its not even a recognized currency.....who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes absolutely no sense....

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No offfense but how do you get that the world demand for ID is high as ever just because they have trillions in circulation?? That's not feasible considering that its not even a recognized currency.....who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes absolutely no sense....

Eh....Us maybe? Traders? Investors?

And the fact that many big companies are jockeying for position and trying to get big contracts happening.

Iraq is HOT. And I think that's COOL!

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Thanks so much for posting this!!!! Enoch8 and Scooter are two of the guys who have kept me thinking this is "real" from their detailed and thorough analysis.

To Enoch8's point about more demand for IQD than during the Saddam Era, his point has nothing to do with the fact there are trillions of IQD in circulation. It has to do with the fact that the world gov'ts and people like us know that times are changing in Iraq. The fact that 75% or more of their entire IQD is outside of Iraq is one example of this. I would guess that during Saddam's time in power it was the complete opposite -- there was very little dinar outside of Iraq as there was very little trade with them, especially after the sanctions placed on Iraq in the early 90's. Whether or not they RV or at what rate, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Iraq is jockeying to become a real powerhouse in the middle east and will be supplying a great deal of oil to the world over the coming years, especially to the US and China. This, coupled with the fact that it is very clear that Iraq is transforming from an economy without free trade under a dictator to a market economy (from banking to oil to agriculture, etc etc) is why the demand for IQD is much greater than it was 10 to 20 years ago.

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No offfense but how do you get that the world demand for ID is high as ever just because they have trillions in circulation?? That's not feasible considering that its not even a recognized currency.....who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes absolutely no sense....

I want dinar and I know a lot of others that do too!

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No offfense but how do you get that the world demand for ID is high as ever just because they have trillions in circulation?? That's not feasible considering that its not even a recognized currency.....who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes absolutely no sense....

If it doesn't make sense to you, read it over and over until it starts to make sense to you.

He was speaking terms of $US$ Value.

In 1988, they had X amount in USD value in circulation

Present day, they are below that (USD Value)

Which would mean they would require about X amount times over to meet that.

Okay, they "had" $US 80 billion dollars worth of currency in circulation in 1988.

Present day, they are below that..... As he states $26 billion

So to factor in growth, inflation, and so forth to reach the 1988 levels, they would have to increase that 6.3 times to the present day equivalent of 1988.

Factor in current population, and the likelihood that the growth of population will increase substantially in the next decade.

There will be a lot of mouths to feed..

So, with demand higher from global governments looking to hold IQD - that increases demand.

Interesting chat.. Glad to see it posted.

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An intriguing number or stat is the $80 Billion in value of circulation for the year of 1988.

It would be interesting to see the financial data behind that (M1, M2, foreign liquid assets, etc).

IIRC - The old regime used foreign liquid assets to fund their wars. This depleted their assets, and caused problems with their currency.

Crazy to think that inflation on a global basis has gone up 630% since 1988, but at times, I am sometimes not surprised.

Gas at the pump was rather low back than... Anyone recall any realistic figures? I know it was well below $1. Heck, I think the national average didn't really peak over a $1 and stay above a $1 until the Mid-90s.

(I could be wrong, but I am young, give me a break).

So if we calculate currency in circulation to be 26 Billion. We are roughly 3 times under that mark (80/26=3).

Now, factor in the global market inlfation of 6.3 x 3 - and you reach the 20 times.

Based on that idea alone, we should see the $520-560 billion mark Enoch speaks of. To function as an economy. Remember, we're speaking in terms of dollars.

Okay, population has increased, as well as costs of living... (Demand for electricity, etc.) - That has to be factored in.

Not to mention, a lot of the population is rather young. Many will be starting familes soon (more mouths to feed, as population rises)

So factor that into the equation.

Whether foreign Govts hold IQD or not, they likely hold a undisclosed amount to be able to conduct business with them.

This drives up demand as, as many foreign business & governments view their country as a honey-pot. (A great investment opportunity)

So, a lot of people may argue that they do not have enough foreign liquidity to back any substantial increase in value.

Well, a majority of currencies held outside of their country would be held by treasuries. The treasuries would use the notes to buy commodities, like minerals, futures, etc.

This helps the GOI & CBI monetize their non-liquid assets.

Now, they may not be giving liquid assets in return of the notes once held by treasuries, but, they are giving something of value as in hard assets. So in a sense, they are exporting wealth (so to speak) but they also have their wealth basically transitioned into the IQD that they use as a currency.

A little side note to find interesting: Mid Septemer 2011, they hold a bidding or auction for the minerals study that took roughly 7 years. I think IIRC over 40 companies/countries will be participating.

This is also one reason I have focused on the IMF Article VIII instead of XIV. (Monetizing non-liquid assets)

This is a path I focus and study more in-depth upon. :)

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Two things need to be done before RV. First the HCL need's to take place. It protects the foreign oil companies, and gives them the right to be in Iraq drilling Iraqi Oil in Iraq. This gives them the protection they deserve and need when bringing their worker's into Iraq, and the protection they need for their equipment, so it won’t be lost through destruction.

Secondly, it protects the people of Iraq. It provides a Vehicle through Law, Where by the Iraqi people are guaranteed a percentage of the oil revenues (similar to the shared revenue in Alaska), that will go to all the various provinces based on their percentage of the total populace, and based on where their homes are. This is the peril lurking within Iraq, as this is the very reason they would go to war with one another, and the very reason they’d be peaceful with one another.

Lastly, The Government of Iraq needs to show its will to Govern it's people and it's shared commonwealth! These thing's must happen before RV can occur!

B)

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Two things need to be done before RV. First the HCL need's to take place. It protects the foreign oil companies, and gives them the right to be in Iraq drilling Iraqi Oil in Iraq. This gives them the protection they deserve and need when bringing their worker's into Iraq, and the protection they need for their equipment, so it won’t be lost through destruction.

Secondly, it protects the people of Iraq. It provides a Vehicle through Law, Where by the Iraqi people are guaranteed a percentage of the oil revenues (similar to the shared revenue in Alaska), that will go to all the various provinces based on their percentage of the total populace, and based on where their homes are. This is the peril lurking within Iraq, as this is the very reason they would go to war with one another, and the very reason they’d be peaceful with one another.

Lastly, The Government of Iraq needs to show its will to Govern it's people and it's shared commonwealth! These thing's must happen before RV can occur!

B)

Thanks for the contribution and explanation of the HCL. I do fail to see how this pertains to the topic-at-hand. The HCL could very well be a "bench-mark" as like a checklist item per say, but the chat was based upon previous dates, and where they should be today. Not what is holding them up.

I hope to see you clarify further how this pertains, as I find it interesting you posted that.

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If it doesn't make sense to you, read it over and over until it starts to make sense to you.

He was speaking terms of $US$ Value.

In 1988, they had X amount in USD value in circulation

Present day, they are below that (USD Value)

Which would mean they would require about X amount times over to meet that.

Okay, they "had" $US 80 billion dollars worth of currency in circulation in 1988.

Present day, they are below that..... As he states $26 billion

So to factor in growth, inflation, and so forth to reach the 1988 levels, they would have to increase that 6.3 times to the present day equivalent of 1988.

Factor in current population, and the likelihood that the growth of population will increase substantially in the next decade.

There will be a lot of mouths to feed..

So, with demand higher from global governments looking to hold IQD - that increases demand.

Interesting chat.. Glad to see it posted.

The USD value will go up when they let the dinar appreciate, they could have printed only billions of dinar and got back to the 80s USD value by raising the value but that doesn't explain his statements of a high global demand for dinar behind the reasoning of there being so much out there....

How about there are massive amounts of dinar because the value is poop and it takes thousands of it for simple purchases?

Global demand for the current dinar? Doubt it completely other then the speculators.......which is a grain of sand in the scheme of things....

Demand from govts looking to hold? Doubt it...who wants to hold huge amounts of an inflated currency that isent even recognized by the global community? Not to mention what purpose would it be for any govts to hold large amounts? Certainly not for profit.....not gonna be able to trade with anyone for dinar except iraq and its not like everyone is trading huge amounts of goods except oil which is done in USD anyway.....throw in all the talk of redenominating and you really shorten the list of everyone who so desperatly wants dinar.....

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The USD value will go up when they let the dinar appreciate, they could have printed only billions of dinar and got back to the 80s USD value by raising the value but that doesn't explain his statements of a high global demand for dinar behind the reasoning of there being so much out there....

How about there are massive amounts of dinar because the value is poop and it takes thousands of it for simple purchases?

Global demand for the current dinar? Doubt it completely other then the speculators.......which is a grain of sand in the scheme of things....

Demand from govts looking to hold? Doubt it...who wants to hold huge amounts of an inflated currency that isent even recognized by the global community? Not to mention what purpose would it be for any govts to hold large amounts? Certainly not for profit.....not gonna be able to trade with anyone for dinar except iraq and its not like everyone is trading huge amounts of goods except oil which is done in USD anyway.....throw in all the talk of redenominating and you really shorten the list of everyone who so desperatly wants dinar.....

It is the domestic recognized currency from their nation. Foreign countries have it... How much do you think is on U.S. soil and not in speculators hands? Banks hold it as I am sure the UST holds it. I doubt it is in trillions, but, they likely hold it for business purposes (not an investment vehicle). Thus, this leads to demand. Any institution that may either foresee them needing to use it, or already use it frequently has a demand for it.

Back to the topic at hand... The value of $80 billion in 1988 does not buy what $80 billion does present day. Not sure if Enoch maybe took that into consideration, unless it was factored into the 630% global increase of inflation... Which I think it was, so, that is how we could account for that be from that %.

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Enoch8: Right.... and we also pointed out, that the oil and budget is gaining money and adding to that each year.

Enoch8: Good way to ruin an economy.

Enoch8: It might of had to do with one of the development programs or something.

Enoch8: They have the money and do not need to take it from CBI Reserves.

Read more:

On this particular portion of the chat... I would reccomend people check out the Annual Bulletin from the CBI site. (AnnualEconomic_Report)

Going off of memory, each particular year was showing that the Revenues were greater than then Expenditures

I found this odd, because every year that they did their budget - they claimed to be in a deficit.

For the current year, we all may recall articles stating that they may be reaching the "black" on their budget.

So, where have they been funneling the $revenues$ from previous years to start each budget in the hole?

Sterlization funds? Bonds? Foreign investments?

Must be a key-part there that I am missing.

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An intriguing number or stat is the $80 Billion in value of circulation for the year of 1988.

It would be interesting to see the financial data behind that (M1, M2, foreign liquid assets, etc).

IIRC - The old regime used foreign liquid assets to fund their wars. This depleted their assets, and caused problems with their currency.

Crazy to think that inflation on a global basis has gone up 630% since 1988, but at times, I am sometimes not surprised.

Gas at the pump was rather low back than... Anyone recall any realistic figures? I know it was well below $1. Heck, I think the national average didn't really peak over a $1 and stay above a $1 until the Mid-90s.

(I could be wrong, but I am young, give me a break).

So if we calculate currency in circulation to be 26 Billion. We are roughly 3 times under that mark (80/26=3).

Now, factor in the global market inlfation of 6.3 x 3 - and you reach the 20 times.

Based on that idea alone, we should see the $520-560 billion mark Enoch speaks of. To function as an economy. Remember, we're speaking in terms of dollars.

Okay, population has increased, as well as costs of living... (Demand for electricity, etc.) - That has to be factored in.

Not to mention, a lot of the population is rather young. Many will be starting familes soon (more mouths to feed, as population rises)

So factor that into the equation.

Whether foreign Govts hold IQD or not, they likely hold a undisclosed amount to be able to conduct business with them.

This drives up demand as, as many foreign business & governments view their country as a honey-pot. (A great investment opportunity)

So, a lot of people may argue that they do not have enough foreign liquidity to back any substantial increase in value.

Well, a majority of currencies held outside of their country would be held by treasuries. The treasuries would use the notes to buy commodities, like minerals, futures, etc.

This helps the GOI & CBI monetize their non-liquid assets.

Now, they may not be giving liquid assets in return of the notes once held by treasuries, but, they are giving something of value as in hard assets. So in a sense, they are exporting wealth (so to speak) but they also have their wealth basically transitioned into the IQD that they use as a currency.

A little side note to find interesting: Mid Septemer 2011, they hold a bidding or auction for the minerals study that took roughly 7 years. I think IIRC over 40 companies/countries will be participating.

This is also one reason I have focused on the IMF Article VIII instead of XIV. (Monetizing non-liquid assets)

This is a path I focus and study more in-depth upon. :)

Darin...... your comments here are spot on!!! You rock, dude! :twothumbs:

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No offfense but how do you get that the world demand for ID is high as ever just because they have trillions in circulation?? That's not feasible considering that its not even a recognized currency.....who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes absolutely no sense....

I have to ask if you are invested in the IQD because your statement " ... who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes no sense...." makes no sense if you are. This is a speculative investment. That means there's a chance to make money and we as investors ( and corp. and governments ) are betting on it going up in value. While I'm sure you're invested , you might want to ask why if you're making that type of statement.

I'm not bashing you ... I'm just making sure you understand all of the risks involved with speculative investments. Not to mention all of the ups and downs they come with.

Be safe and have a wonderful journey down the path of life.

Uncle Barkie :D

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The USD value will go up when they let the dinar appreciate, they could have printed only billions of dinar and got back to the 80s USD value by raising the value but that doesn't explain his statements of a high global demand for dinar behind the reasoning of there being so much out there....

How about there are massive amounts of dinar because the value is poop and it takes thousands of it for simple purchases?

Global demand for the current dinar? Doubt it completely other then the speculators.......which is a grain of sand in the scheme of things....

Demand from govts looking to hold? Doubt it...who wants to hold huge amounts of an inflated currency that isent even recognized by the global community? Not to mention what purpose would it be for any govts to hold large amounts? Certainly not for profit.....not gonna be able to trade with anyone for dinar except iraq and its not like everyone is trading huge amounts of goods except oil which is done in USD anyway.....throw in all the talk of redenominating and you really shorten the list of everyone who so desperatly wants dinar.....

That will change after the RV, R.

E8 is referring to an example of a currency, that will be one of the most desired hedges on the planet..... IF this little country continues on the path it is on.

It is already growing at a rate that is faster than China and is 2nd, only to Mongolia.... and expected growth graphs show it will be the fastest growing economy on the planet, for years, following the RV.

E8, Darin and Chuckles, have insight into the future.

Try not to look at life so much, in terms of immediate gratification, and you will begin to see it, too. :twocents:

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I have to ask if you are invested in the IQD because your statement " ... who wants dinar when there is no practical use for it?? That makes no sense...." makes no sense if you are. This is a speculative investment. That means there's a chance to make money and we as investors ( and corp. and governments ) are betting on it going up in value. While I'm sure you're invested , you might want to ask why if you're making that type of statement.

I'm not bashing you ... I'm just making sure you understand all of the risks involved with speculative investments. Not to mention all of the ups and downs they come with.

Be safe and have a wonderful journey down the path of life.

Uncle Barkie :D

It appears that none of you understood my point which was that what enoch was saying about why there is so much dinar out there is a stretch to say the least......

They did not print all this dinar because of the global demand for dinar....

Will demand change in the future? Its possible.....but you can't say for sure it will.....

I'm very well aware of all the risks in this investment thank you which is whyh I question everything that anyone says cause there is so much garbage being passed around.

I'm not saying enoch is full of crap, just stating his comments about why there is so much dinar is not feasikble.......

That will change after the RV, R.

E8 is referring to an example of a currency, that will be one of the most desired hedges on the planet..... IF this little country continues on the path it is on.

It is already growing at a rate that is faster than China and is 2nd, only to Mongolia.... and expected growth graphs show it will be the fastest growing economy on the planet, for years, following the RV.

E8, Darin and Chuckles, have insight into the future.

Try not to look at life so much, in terms of immediate gratification, and you will begin to see it, too. :twocents:

LOL

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