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RV Guess-timate?


RobLe
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Hi All, I am trying to piece this all together. Yes, a lot of information and dis-information. I know that one needs to read as much as you can to catch up on all that is going on.

My question is, (and I know this is only a quess) when does everyone expect an RV? I have read where the banks have been installing Del-a-Rue machines. I have read

where Iraq has passed all of the major hurtles to get an RV approved. I have noticed a distinct difference in the chatter on forums, a kind of excitement like it it around the corner.

I have read that politically, Iraq needs to get this RV passed. I have read where only Shabibi knows....

But, with all of the experts on this board, are there any Guess-timates as to when you feel this will happen? Do you think it will happen this year, this month? I have read so many

different reports on what an RV will go for. I have read from .10 up to $8. Any questimate on this? I know no one would be here if they didn't HOPE for a profit. And we all

like to image bigger than dreamed of profits. But what is the reality? I have read many times where this will be a once in a lifetime investment. Do you all feel that way?

I look forward to you senior members responses. I just like to keep things reel.

Thanks,

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I'm with you, bamagirl. 1.17 to 1.19 is my best guess. When? One guess is probably as good as another. Already been a long ride for many, but I definitely believe we are in the last stages of the process. I have bought what I intended to buy, so not buying any more, regardless of what I feel. Hope you stayed out of that tornado in Tuscaloosa. I live about a mile from the Joplin tornado. Oddly enough, I was in tuscaloosa when Joplin was hit! Small world.

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Sawmill thanks for asking. I actually live just south of Tuscaloosa and we were very fortunate to be missed. I do hope your family and home is ok. Were you in town volunteering? I know there was a volunteer group here when the Joplin tornado hit, people are awesome. So many people came together and helped Tuscaloosa out it was just amazing, still is.

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What I personally want is 3.22. I'm not gonna lie, 12cents would be a great profit, but I really hope it's a lot more than that. 1.17 to 1.19 would be much better. At this point, and I realize I've only been invested since March, I've heard so many different rate quotes, I'm just ready for it to RV and be done with no matter what rate it comes in at.

GO RV!!! :D

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RobLe, thanks for the post.

We all hope the Rv will be within the next few months with a rate of .10 or more usd for each dinar, but who knows. This could linger until next year, nothing happens quickly with politics and apparently there is always something new on the list that needs to be done (some people have been waiting 7 years for the revaluation). One piece of advice I would give is to not put much faith in anything the self proclaimed 'guru's say or many articles floating around on the internet, a lot of it is hype, persuasive writing, and misdirection by megalomaniacs. Always consider the source and the 'validity' of statements. Words are only words and talk is cheap (in fact, WORTHLESS). Here's hoping for a good Rv report from the only source that matters---- the CBI site. Peace.

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Logically on a rate I could only go on what Shabibi has said in his visit to the USA where he did an interview on MSNBC, he said his currency would go back to the value of what it was pre-war plus 8-20% inflation over 8 years. which would put it around $3.40-$4.00 where he feels it needs to fall based on the strength of the dollar which is what it will be pegged to.

As far as a date, it could be tomorrow, but logically Aug. 15th-Sept. 15th is the most logical time frame this year outside of that would take much more research after that time would pass, though much of what is coming out of Iraq now is mean't to confuse us cause it's not mean't for us to read.

These are my best logical guesses based on the information that I have studied, and the feeling God has given me with my comfort level in this investment. The only real one who knows when is God, Shabibi is just the human logic doing his bidding!

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But, with all of the experts on this board, are there any Guess-timates as to when you feel this will happen? Do you think it will happen this year, this month? I have read so many

End Quote

It's truly impossible to tell....I have watched lots of Folks for 7 years try and do that and always they failed no matter how intelligent and well structured their reasonings were... Sorry.

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My opinion and I have no contacts or info. I would think this is going to happen in a few months and I think it will come out at $3.41 based on reading what a few who seem to have some information on whats going on. $3.41 makes sense to me. Why in a couple of months? Iraq needs to get their apples lined up and its politics, so it wont happen soon. The way the US economy is going and the way the Wall St is effecting the world economy I think govts will push for it to happen. This would create a large influx of money into the economy . It is no secret Obama is looking for money. I think some shining star in Washington is going to bring it to everyones attention that an RV would bring money into the economy and thats exactly what Obama wants and an RV will mean not raising taxes on the rich.

Now if the economy needs more money to get things moving dosnt it make sense to get as much out of the RV as possible? Thats why I think it will come out at least at $3.41. Thats just my opinion folks and I have no contacts.

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A change in the value of the Dinar will happen after an official release of the new currency. Once re-denominated, it makes sense that the value will begin to rise at the pace that Iraq can sustain to successfully expand its GDP and support a natural rise in the value of its currency. There will continue to be many factors affecting this including security, financial sector infrastructure, the success rate of the Iraqi private sector in assimilating change and growth, etc. All these things have the likelyhood of being more difficult than anyones projections suggest, because regardless of all our hopes to the contrary, Iraq will continue to be lead by individuals who seek personal power over the good of the country, permit corruption as long as it furthers their own agenda, and fight amongst each other like the tribal society they are.

I wish it were different, but what is it that any of you see that truly suggests otherwise. My opinion is based on what they are saying, policies they appear to be implementing, and the nature of the Iraqi state. Everything else would seem to be wishfull thinking. I have a substancial Dinar investment and hope for the best like anyone else, but I refuse to try and fool myself into thinking that some miracle event is just around the corner. A re-denominated Dinar on par with the USD sounds likely. It just isn't a windfall for all of us.

By the way, I don't see how so many can continue to believe that Obama is somehow affecting this. Where is your evidence outside of pure conjecture?

Sorry if you think I'm being a downer, I will be the first to say gladly that I was wrong if something else occurrs.

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Why?

Oh man, you had to go and ask.

I think it will comeout higher than the 1.17 because it will please those in charge to exceed expectations- if only by a small amount.

I think speculation that the dinar will go to $3+ will accelerate it's rise to that level.

But please, do not mistake me for anyone who might have a clue.

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I don't think it should go past 2012. They are getting things done much quicker these days it seems. Whatever they are planning could happen any time. I'm not sure what the rate could be? Theoretically it has to be at a level were the buying and selling of the currency is balanced.

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For me £5.25 would be fantastic. I would be seriously rich ! However , I think realistically it will come in at between £1.00 and £1.75. Then it will climb. If it does I will cash in enough to pay off my immediate debt and then wait a little longer. I think it will happen some time in the autumn but wouldn't like to put a specific date on it. Why? The rate... Iraq needs a strong currency to assist economic growth. Shabbie has stated so and that he wished the dinar to be the strongest in the region. Why? In the autumn. Again iraq needs this. They are a fledgling country with hopes and dreams just like all of us. They need this to help the everyday people of iraq to have and develop better lives. The people of iraq, have had a short view of the western world and the lifestyles we have. This includes basic things like food, social lives, good healthcare,education and all the other things we take for granted everyday. They will wish to be apart of this to some extent, for now and future generations, whilst keeping in touch with their traditions. Consider how some other muslim contries have merged there traditions , rules & lifestyles whilst adopting some westernisation at the same time. They will I believe have far greater troubles, in country, if they do not do this soon.

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The one thing that you can be sure of with regard to an RV, is that if it happens no one will be told about it ahead of time. So anyone that says that they have "heard from a source..." is full of BS. Personally I think it will RD to get in the dollar range (and an RD in contrast will be announced way in advance with a big education campaign to be sure everyone understands that it is value neutral), and that a small RV might happen early in that process or after it. As time goes on if Iraq continues to peg their currency (as I think they do plan on) then small RVs will be needed as GDP grows faster than M2, but those will be in the range of a few percent, not 1000s of percent.

Sadly, over the next year or so I think those of us that bought recently through dealers will be lucky to get our money back given the dealer buy/sell spread. i.e. if it RVs to maybe double its present value prior to the RD, we could get out and make a few percent profit, but I'm doubtful of that happening.

Edited by jg167
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For me £5.25 would be fantastic. I would be seriously rich

End Quote

No kidding, Betty... I'd be disgustingly rich myself at £5.25.....While at $1 something I'd only be stinking rich.........Lower than that... Just rich........Moral of story..... I'll take whatever.

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The one thing that you can be sure of with regard to an RV, is that if it happens no one will be told about it ahead of time. So anyone that says that they have "heard from a source..." is full of BS.

End Quote

That's exactly what I have always thought myself... It'll come like a thief in the night at a date and time totally unlinked to any major event dates or anything of that sort.

Edited by umbertino
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