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Mechics of a revaluation


jmw
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It's all based upon the cash(Iraqi Dinar) amount held by any person.........

Values on how your paid remain the same

Prices of goods & services reflect the new rate.

So guess what, if you held 1,000,000 dinar.... a $1,000 USD-valued item could be purchased 1,000 times post R/V

That is how it helps Average Joe....

Here is an example, your rent is 1,000,000 dinar a month.

You hold 5,000,000 dinar at the current moment of the r/v

You can now pay rent 5,000 times post r/v

You won't maintain the same pay-rate, because, its value-based.. So, how many dinars you make per hour at a job are reduced accordingly. However, if you've been holding dinar waiting for the exchange to go up, you would benefit.

If you were making a 1,000,000 a day in dinar. If the r/v were to match the value of the dinar to the dollar (1:1) do you think they would still pay you 1,000,000 dinar per day? That would mean they're paying 1,000,000$US per day.

No, they would reduce your pay accordingly.

But, the price of goods imported would drop. And so would other prices of goods and services. All because the value of the dinar changed.

Seems that every Iraqi that had savings of a million dinar or more would split the country post RV and the rest would still be poor. I would. I would think the majority would. Why stick around waiting to be killed when you could fly first class to Aruba?

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Also the question of the Iraqi who spends 20 million dinar on camels and the next day the currrency RVs. Poor guy probably commit suicide. Some would say tough shite but that would be hard to swallow.

Not long ago my brother and I split a million Dinar that we purchased from a marine. He was getting married and needed the money. We joked on our way home the conversation he might have to have with his new wife. "Hunny, remember when I needed an extra $900 bucks for our wedding?"...

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Schedule C - Par Values

1. The Fund shall notify members that par values may be established for the purposes of this Agreement, in accordance with Article IV, Sections 1, 3, 4, and 5 and this Schedule, in terms of the special drawing right, or in terms of such other common denominator as is prescribed by the Fund. The common denominator shall not be gold or a currency.

2. A member that intends to establish a par value for its currency shall propose a par value to the Fund within a reasonable time after notice is given under 1 above.

3. Any member that does not intend to establish a par value for its currency under 1 above shall consult with the Fund and ensure that its exchange arrangements are consistent with the purposes of the Fund and are adequate to fulfill its obligations under Article IV, Section 1.

4. The Fund shall concur in or object to a proposed par value within a reasonable period after receipt of the proposal. A proposed par value shall not take effect for the purposes of this Agreement if the Fund objects to it, and the member shall be subject to 3 above. The Fund shall not object because of the domestic social or political policies of the member proposing the par value.

5. Each member that has a par value for its currency undertakes to apply appropriate measures consistent with this Agreement in order to ensure that the maximum and the minimum rates for spot exchange transactions taking place within its territories between its currency and the currencies of other members maintaining par values shall not differ from parity by more than four and one-half percent or by such other margin or margins as the Fund may adopt by an eighty-five percent majority of the total voting power.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/sched_c.htm

I should point out that Iraq is a "Charter Member" of the IMF....

Edited by MrFnHappy
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Seems that every Iraqi that had savings of a million dinar or more would split the country post RV and the rest would still be poor. I would. I would think the majority would. Why stick around waiting to be killed when you could fly first class to Aruba?

That happens already....

All the big-whigs don't stick around much if they're not needed. Many are already out of the nation for their own protection.

But, a lot may stay, and start their own businesses in the private sector. If they love where the live, I would.

Start a business such as.... restaurants, department store, etc. possibilities are endless.

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No... If that was the case, Iraqis would run to the banks and exchange the value of their newly re-valued dinar and exchange for USD to pay the same price.

(Assuming they also accepted USD prior)

So your comment would be just as silly if they charged 1,000 times more USD post R/V against their product, goods, or services.

You claim a grounded approach, but your views are always so negative you forget to look at other factors. And as my own disclaimer, I'm not omitting the idea of a re-denomination, I am simply explaining the process if a r/v were to occur (in my mind..) which seems to make logical sense to me...

So much is done in USD over there, I am sure a majority of Iraqis sit on dinar with an assumption the value will increase.... Just a matter of when.. Some may claim to do it for stability reasons, other may claim to hold it as they believe it is undervalued and in the future will rise in value.

WTF?? How was any of what I said negative?? Hahaha Im not even talking about a RD.....Im talking about prices and how it seems they would be affected in a RV situation...just like the topic is about.....a revaluation lol.....it seems that things would be completely chaotic if there was a jump from 1170 to a 1 to 1 ratio overnight.....

It doesnt make sense that there would be a massive over haul of prices in the marketplace overnight for a RV...thats what I was talking about......because there is alot of people that say it would have to happen but to me it doesnt sound right.....

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WTF?? How was any of what I said negative?? Hahaha Im not even talking about a RD.....Im talking about prices and how it seems they would be affected in a RV situation...just like the topic is about.....a revaluation lol.....it seems that things would be completely chaotic if there was a jump from 1170 to a 1 to 1 ratio overnight.....

It doesnt make sense that there would be a massive over haul of prices in the marketplace overnight for a RV...thats what I was talking about......because there is alot of people that say it would have to happen but to me it doesnt sound right.....

I'm not saying your negative, just that you lack a positive approach... HAHA

To counter your idea, people would just exchange their newly re-valued dinar for USD if markets didn't adjust their price in time and or accept the new price.

And people would likely initially use their USD up first as the markets adjusted their prices.

Which would draw the USD out of the market and could be sent out to those that exchange...

I don't think anyone has done any research on how many dollars are used within iraq circulation-wise.

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Jmw ,

One thing i didn't see in your anologie and correct me if i missed it ,is this;localy produced goods and labor item's may be afordable on a base level but foriegn good's and labor to rebuild are un-touchable.

Local rice, bread, vegatables, goat is selling for whatever he can get for them, that the local markets will bear.

But what Iraq cant do is import foriegn goods like textiles ,building materials [concrete, copper wire for electrical, Ect.] , Commodities that they can't produce like wheat,corn,sugar Ect.not to mention foreign cars, parts ,paper ect.

I guarantee nobody is gonna take payment in Iqd until it's recognized on forex.

With America pulling out ,and the war effort at it's end ,the usd money tree is drying up ,other than payments made to iraq in Usd for goods by other countries And the USA to iraq .{mainly Oil export]

So basicly they have to bring their economy up to par [interst rate stable,security ect.] wich they seem to have acheived for the most part.Then economic study's to justify raising the value or purchasing power of the iqd.Otherwise they are sunk , done finished ,before they made it out of the starting gate.

The exchange rate would have to be equal to the Usd or very close, other wise they're going backwards so to speak.Jmo

However to my point.Toyota isn't selling the cars for less than they can get in the rest of the world .Neither is any other company in the world.

It doesn't matter what the Iqd 's exchange rate is at the time the product will be sold commeasurite to market value, and converted to it's equivalent in foriegn currancy.

So in conclusion.I see the world market rectifying the initial wealth created.Not to mention if the country picked up anything from ours ,they'll tax'em untill they bleed!

I mean ,what is the average monthly earned wage in Iraq? What is the real un-employment rate? I think most Iraqi's have just enough to get buy ,and what little they have may make them wealthy enough to build or buy anew home ,Car,and ak47 and a few new wives but not nearly as great as the Rv. would effect us as investors holding larger quanity's on average .So as a whole i think there will be a percentage of iraqi's that do real well with an rv, but on average it wil be minamal.The New value of the dinar will allow them to get back to a norm ,and the prices by local merchant's will quickly adjust prices commeasurate to foreign goods and the new found wealth.I'm selling things right now at my company , at 1999 prices with at least a 300% cost in goods since 2005.Why? Because the USA market is so sluggish i have to almost give it away to sell somthing.Iraq is probably ten times worse than us, if not way more as far as cost vs. value.But the last 6 months we saw some spending and i was getting 2003 price's.

You do a great job with the math.Your explanations are quite understandable.I'm sure they are probably all correct in what you have factored in to the hypothisis,and i certanly am not a world economics expert.I just think there are factor's not in the equation.Case in point our Gov. economics doe'nt make real sence no matter who you are .Yet they do what they beleive is the correct thing or what they want to do reguardless of the math! Don't they?

Thanks for the post! got my gears turning at the very least B)

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I think all 3 point what have you described jmw wil be adjusted according tu US dollar. I know in moment looks like very confuse but that wil be only at begining.

GOI want to give people something at once and then will be easier for Iraq to develop your economy. Thats mean if someone earn by months 500 USD today it's not possible to earn after RV more than 500. But today is 500 USD = app. 570.000 IQD and after RV could be 570 IQD. My thoughts.

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I'm not saying your negative, just that you lack a positive approach... HAHA

To counter your idea, people would just exchange their newly re-valued dinar for USD if markets didn't adjust their price in time and or accept the new price.

And people would likely initially use their USD up first as the markets adjusted their prices.

Which would draw the USD out of the market and could be sent out to those that exchange...

I don't think anyone has done any research on how many dollars are used within iraq circulation-wise.

See it however you want to but I look at all the information I see as if I dont even have any dinar, that way regardless of what the info is, I dont try to make any scenerio fit whether its good or bad....I just simply try to come up with the best explanation for the reason behind certain things.....you probly do have more knowledge about somethings and how they COULD work because you have seen more in your life then I have and thats fine, but that doesnt mean anything about my approach just cause it doesnt line up and I dont see eye to eye with everything you say.....

Thats no different from what they do now.....using USD.....and at the market level, who the heck is going to know what the new price would be until it actually hits?? What would there be to complain about??

Its almost like rising gas prices we have here......we hear about the price of oil jumping up in value per barrel, but the relfection of the new prices take just a tad bit of time to filter its way down to us......and then the changing prices of other goods that get jacked up because of something of that nature....rising costs of oil and gas, affect prices of other goods because of shipping costs involved but not everything is changed overnight....

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I mean there is a lot I don't know so I'm just trying to get clarification on how there would be a massive overhaul overnight to change all prices at once due to a change in exchange rate value.....

it doesn't seem likely that anytime a country raises the value of their currency, that they have to set up and excute an overhaul on prices everywhere overnight.....but rather the affects of it slowly trickle its way down to the street level and eventually reflect the changes in purchasing power....

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This has been a great discussion with many questions being looked at but the elephant in the room has yet to be addressed. M2. Also if an overnight RV is such a good thing for a country then why hasnt Saudi attempted one? They could easily pull it off seeing how they dont have an inflated money supply and all. Why didnt Venezuela do it?

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I'm not saying your negative, just that you lack a positive approach... HAHA

To counter your idea, people would just exchange their newly re-valued dinar for USD if markets didn't adjust their price in time and or accept the new price.

And people would likely initially use their USD up first as the markets adjusted their prices.

Which would draw the USD out of the market and could be sent out to those that exchange...

I don't think anyone has done any research on how many dollars are used within iraq circulation-wise.

surely you don't think they can exchange all 59 Trillion of their money supply for US dollars?....to me the issue with how you have laid it out is how you are dollarizing the dinar....basically making it a commodity out of it...no different than golf or silver...except you can't do that with currency...

The dinar should act like any other currency...meaning it has an exchange value based on the perceived value through normal economic standards...ie, amount in circulation in relationship to GDP and reserves held....changes in the exchange value only affect imports and don't have any affect on in-country products or services....

For example...if the dollar went up 1000% do the Euro what changes would happen here...would my pay change as a result?...It wouldn't....but I could buy a sweet new BMW!

Your view makes almost all Iraqi's wealthy....all they need is $1000 dollars worth of dinar and they are all instant millionaires...even thought they have high unemployment....70%-80% are employed and basically if you have a job in Iraq you would be an instant millionaire.

now if 80% of the population becomes instant millionaires...don't you think inflation would go through the roof?...if you look at the amount in circulation and then add velocity...it would be chaos.

I would agree that dollarizing is the only way to try and make sense of it....the only problem is you can't make a commodity out of it....

I know you and I see things very differently and I appreciate you making your case....and I was really hoping it would work....but it can't change value that quickly....hopefully it will continue to grow as they continue to improve the fundamentals of their economy.

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Jmw ,

One thing i didn't see in your anologie and correct me if i missed it ,is this;localy produced goods and labor item's may be afordable on a base level but foriegn good's and labor to rebuild are un-touchable.

Local rice, bread, vegatables, goat is selling for whatever he can get for them, that the local markets will bear.

But what Iraq cant do is import foriegn goods like textiles ,building materials [concrete, copper wire for electrical, Ect.] , Commodities that they can't produce like wheat,corn,sugar Ect.not to mention foreign cars, parts ,paper ect.

I guarantee nobody is gonna take payment in Iqd until it's recognized on forex.

With America pulling out ,and the war effort at it's end ,the usd money tree is drying up ,other than payments made to iraq in Usd for goods by other countries And the USA to iraq .{mainly Oil export]

So basicly they have to bring their economy up to par [interst rate stable,security ect.] wich they seem to have acheived for the most part.Then economic study's to justify raising the value or purchasing power of the iqd.Otherwise they are sunk , done finished ,before they made it out of the starting gate.

The exchange rate would have to be equal to the Usd or very close, other wise they're going backwards so to speak.Jmo

However to my point.Toyota isn't selling the cars for less than they can get in the rest of the world .Neither is any other company in the world.

It doesn't matter what the Iqd 's exchange rate is at the time the product will be sold commeasurite to market value, and converted to it's equivalent in foriegn currancy.

So in conclusion.I see the world market rectifying the initial wealth created.Not to mention if the country picked up anything from ours ,they'll tax'em untill they bleed!

I mean ,what is the average monthly earned wage in Iraq? What is the real un-employment rate? I think most Iraqi's have just enough to get buy ,and what little they have may make them wealthy enough to build or buy anew home ,Car,and ak47 and a few new wives but not nearly as great as the Rv. would effect us as investors holding larger quanity's on average .So as a whole i think there will be a percentage of iraqi's that do real well with an rv, but on average it wil be minamal.The New value of the dinar will allow them to get back to a norm ,and the prices by local merchant's will quickly adjust prices commeasurate to foreign goods and the new found wealth.I'm selling things right now at my company , at 1999 prices with at least a 300% cost in goods since 2005.Why? Because the USA market is so sluggish i have to almost give it away to sell somthing.Iraq is probably ten times worse than us, if not way more as far as cost vs. value.But the last 6 months we saw some spending and i was getting 2003 price's.

You do a great job with the math.Your explanations are quite understandable.I'm sure they are probably all correct in what you have factored in to the hypothisis,and i certanly am not a world economics expert.I just think there are factor's not in the equation.Case in point our Gov. economics doe'nt make real sence no matter who you are .Yet they do what they beleive is the correct thing or what they want to do reguardless of the math! Don't they?

Thanks for the post! got my gears turning at the very least B)

Thanks...you make some great observations that I agree with...my thoughts on a couple of them....if they want to have a currency on par with the US dollar they can accomplish this by moving forward with the re-denomination that they have been talking about...and I would agree that they should...your right about no company selling products to Iraq if they can't get something of value in return...but to me if the CBI revalues the currency to 1 to 1...but they don't do anything about their M2 of 59 trillion and don't have enough reserves or a high enough GDP to support that value...then no one will accept the dinar because everyone in the world will know it isn't really worth that much....you just can't get away from the fundamentals of economics.

Now I do think they could RV at up to maybe 100% to 200% which would be huge...that would put the IQD at around 550 to the dollar....and they would not have to change prices...change pay or change loans...just not sure how long it would take to go up that much...but they have been doing it for years...then stopped a couple of years ago.

I should point out that Iraq is a "Charter Member" of the IMF....

Careful...or you might be thrown into the "conspiracy" group!

Do you know what the consequences are if they go above that percentage?....

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I mean there is a lot I don't know so I'm just trying to get clarification on how there would be a massive overhaul overnight to change all prices at once due to a change in exchange rate value.....

it doesn't seem likely that anytime a country raises the value of their currency, that they have to set up and excute an overhaul on prices everywhere overnight.....but rather the affects of it slowly trickle its way down to the street level and eventually reflect the changes in purchasing power....

I'm not sure the best way to describe the situation, but you read into this with a negative approach. You never really see an optimistic opportunity (other than purchasing IQD yourself). That lack of optimisism is what makes you forget to see all scenarios. Which was my point I made earlier, that you look for the bad of all situations, you merely forgot that your logic was flawed as citizens could easily exchange their newly re-valued IQD for USD to make the same payment (value wise) to purchase goods.

And in response to your trickle theory....

The citizens would likely use their USD up (They may anticipate another quick increase in value, or what not..)

They would use it up as in abandoning it.. (Maybe pay in USD and prefer IQD in change)..

As the pricing adjusts to what the IQD shoudl buy, they'll likely use it the dinar than.

Which, as the CBI draws in all the USD off the streets, they could also use that to back their reserves as well.

surely you don't think they can exchange all 59 Trillion of their money supply for US dollars?....to me the issue with how you have laid it out is how you are dollarizing the dinar....basically making it a commodity out of it...no different than golf or silver...except you can't do that with currency...

The dinar should act like any other currency...meaning it has an exchange value based on the perceived value through normal economic standards...ie, amount in circulation in relationship to GDP and reserves held....changes in the exchange value only affect imports and don't have any affect on in-country products or services....

For example...if the dollar went up 1000% do the Euro what changes would happen here...would my pay change as a result?...It wouldn't....but I could buy a sweet new BMW!

Your view makes almost all Iraqi's wealthy....all they need is $1000 dollars worth of dinar and they are all instant millionaires...even thought they have high unemployment....70%-80% are employed and basically if you have a job in Iraq you would be an instant millionaire.

now if 80% of the population becomes instant millionaires...don't you think inflation would go through the roof?...if you look at the amount in circulation and then add velocity...it would be chaos.

I would agree that dollarizing is the only way to try and make sense of it....the only problem is you can't make a commodity out of it....

I know you and I see things very differently and I appreciate you making your case....and I was really hoping it would work....but it can't change value that quickly....hopefully it will continue to grow as they continue to improve the fundamentals of their economy.

If your comparing the 59 trillion to the total money supply, your obviously using the M2 figures from the C.B.I.

The CBI values their M2 completely different than the U.S.

From my understanding, the M2 is their broadest monetary base.

For the U.S., M3 is the broadest base, and I believe the Feds stopped updating that figure in 2007.

And the M3 is well into the trillions U.S.-wise

Europe has 4 Monetary bases.. M1,2,3, & 4.

Point being, your comparing apples to oranges when speaking of the 59 trillion.

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I'm not sure the best way to describe the situation, but you read into this with a negative approach. You never really see an optimistic opportunity (other than purchasing IQD yourself). That lack of optimisism is what makes you forget to see all scenarios. Which was my point I made earlier, that you look for the bad of all situations, you merely forgot that your logic was flawed as citizens could easily exchange their newly re-valued IQD for USD to make the same payment (value wise) to purchase goods.

And in response to your trickle theory....

The citizens would likely use their USD up (They may anticipate another quick increase in value, or what not..)

They would use it up as in abandoning it.. (Maybe pay in USD and prefer IQD in change)..

As the pricing adjusts to what the IQD shoudl buy, they'll likely use it the dinar than.

Which, as the CBI draws in all the USD off the streets, they could also use that to back their reserves as well.

If your comparing the 59 trillion to the total money supply, your obviously using the M2 figures from the C.B.I.

The CBI values their M2 completely different than the U.S.

From my understanding, the M2 is their broadest monetary base.

For the U.S., M3 is the broadest base, and I believe the Feds stopped updating that figure in 2007.

And the M3 is well into the trillions U.S.-wise

Europe has 4 Monetary bases.. M1,2,3, & 4.

Point being, your comparing apples to oranges when speaking of the 59 trillion.

okay...their M1 is 50 trillion....it is their narrowest monetary base...their currency outside of banks is 24 Trillion....the point is it doesn't work with any of them.

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okay...their M1 is 50 trillion....it is their narrowest monetary base...their currency outside of banks is 24 Trillion....the point is it doesn't work with any of them.

So, if their monetary base #1 is 50 trillion... Why don't you do some research and see how they value theri M1 figures....

And remember, they prefer the use of hard currency....

Electronic banking is not up to full speed...

A lot of money not in the banks..

Here is a thought......

If every U.S. Citizen & the U.S. Govt paid of their debts entirely... All US dollars would be dried up (as in ceasing to exist)...

Our debt is much higher than 14 trillion (That is the Govt debt)

Add-in the commercial/consumer debt, and the # is insane...

If $1 exists for all that debt, using the concept "debt is money, and money is debt", technically, the US holds almost twice as much money in circulation.

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So, if their monetary base #1 is 50 trillion... Why don't you do some research and see how they value theri M1 figures....

And remember, they prefer the use of hard currency....

Electronic banking is not up to full speed...

A lot of money not in the banks..

Here is a thought......

If every U.S. Citizen & the U.S. Govt paid of their debts entirely... All US dollars would be dried up (as in ceasing to exist)...

Our debt is much higher than 14 trillion (That is the Govt debt)

Add-in the commercial/consumer debt, and the # is insane...

If $1 exists for all that debt, using the concept "debt is money, and money is debt", technically, the US holds almost twice as much money in circulation.

here you go...on the CBI website...

http://cbi.iq/documents/Key_Financial_Indicators_Documentation.pdf

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4a in that link

Net Foreign Assets seem to be included into their M1 figures

That means, GOLD, SDRs, and other investments

And I am sure the M1 figures account for the dinar value when adding that to their balance sheet.

So, for example, if they hold 1 billion (US Value) in Gold, that would account for over 1 trillion of that figure.

Long story short - like I was saying, their M1 & M2 figures account for more than just their currency and electronic currency. :)

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Wheres JW11? He needs to sit through this class.

LOL no kidding hahahaha but I bet he won't be found where any learning can be done! He will just chalk this up to more of our conspiracy to get everyone to sell their dinar hahahaha did drox tell you what our positions are in our clan? He posted it on my profile.... LOL

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Careful...or you might be thrown into the "conspiracy" group!

Do you know what the consequences are if they go above that percentage?....

Change in status in the Fund, potential loss of special drawing rights, and things such as SBA's.

Most will have noticed that Iraq has done, or at least attempted to do, all things the Fund "suggests".

If your comparing the 59 trillion to the total money supply, your obviously using the M2 figures from the C.B.I.

The CBI values their M2 completely different than the U.S.

From my understanding, the M2 is their broadest monetary base.

For the U.S., M3 is the broadest base, and I believe the Feds stopped updating that figure in 2007.

And the M3 is well into the trillions U.S.-wise

Europe has 4 Monetary bases.. M1,2,3, & 4.

Point being, your comparing apples to oranges when speaking of the 59 trillion.

I'm sorry, but I have to say that your statement about M2 is ludicrous. M2 is still the established measure of money supply used by economists, and is measured in the same way everywhere.

What Does M2 Mean?

A category within the money supply that includes M1 in addition to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds.

Investopedia explains M2

M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions.

Edited by MrFnHappy
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Change in status in the Fund, potential loss of special drawing rights, and things such as SBA's.

Most will have noticed that Iraq has done, or at least attempted to do, all things the Fund "suggests".

I'm sorry, but I have to say that your statement about M2 is ludicrous. M2 is still the established measure of money supply used by economists, and is measured in the same way everywhere.

Thats what I thought as well....havent seen anything in writing that would suggest anything different......

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Change in status in the Fund, potential loss of special drawing rights, and things such as SBA's.

Most will have noticed that Iraq has done, or at least attempted to do, all things the Fund "suggests".

I'm sorry, but I have to say that your statement about M2 is ludicrous. M2 is still the established measure of money supply used by economists, and is measured in the same way everywhere.

My general comment regarding monetary bases still holds that not all central banks measure them the same way.

Not reaching for straws, just making that be known.

the u.s. has 3 monetary bases, and as we can see, Iraq has 2.

Europe has 4...

The larger the #, the more broader the monetary base

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My general comment regarding monetary bases still holds that not all central banks measure them the same way.

Not reaching for straws, just making that be known.

the u.s. has 3 monetary bases, and as we can see, Iraq has 2.

Europe has 4...

The larger the #, the more broader the monetary base

they may measure different basis...but the comparisons between M1's and M2's between countries are standard and consistent...

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they may measure different basis...but the comparisons between M1's and M2's between countries are standard and consistent...

I was told differently from a highly respected person. So I started to do my own little research, which as it continues to be (on-going).

I think we are both wrong....

I'll see if I can find better factual information.

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