CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush Enters Persian Gulf

[SailorDave]

One look at the most recent naval update maps shows that in addition to global insolvency (courtesy of the broke European dominoes and a potentially technically broke US), a UK on the verge of a parliamentary scandal courtesy of a media baron whose empire is crumbling, and not to mention yet another downward inflection point in the global economic slowdown courtesy of the end of QE2 and no replacement yet, market watchers may have to start factoring in geopolitical risk yet again. While the fact that Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and now Turkey, are ever more increasingly on edge is apparently something Mr. Market has managed to internalize, when it comes to geopolitics everyone stops to listen when renewed Iran-Israel rumblings reappear. Which may just be the case. As the most recently updated naval map from Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area. Three carriers in proximity to Iran would be extremely troubling, yet fit perfectly with the story of CIA veteran Robert Baer, the man played by George Clooney in Syriana, who as Al Jazeera reports, appeared on KPFK Los Angeles, warning that Israeli PM Netanyahu is "likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future." It gets worse: "Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war." The punchline: "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained." For the betting public out there, an September CL call may not be the dumbest trade possible...

First, the naval update per Stratfor:

And, courtesy of Al Jazeera and Haaretz, the full take from Robert Baer:

Earlier this week, Robert Baer appeared on the provocative KPFK Los Angeles show Background Briefing, hosted by Ian Masters. It was there that he predicted that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future.

Robert Baer has had a storied career, including a stint in Iraq in the 1990s where he organised opposition to Saddam Hussein. (He was recalled after being accused of trying to organise Saddam's assassination.) Upon his retirement, he received a top decoration for meritorious service.

Baer is no ordinary CIA operative. George Clooney won an Oscar for playing a character based on Baer in the film Syriana (Baer also wrote the book).

He obviously won't name many of his sources in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere, but the few he has named are all Israeli security figures who have publically warned that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are hell-bent on war.

Most former Mossad chiefs wary of Netanyahu

Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu's plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine. According to Haaretz:

When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."

The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said.

According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan's blasts at Israel's political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters.

Caspit writes that Dagan is "one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. ... When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night".

Dagan describes the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible" and views speaking out against Netanyahu as his patriotic duty.

And his abhorrence of Netanyahu is not uncommon in the Israeli security establishment. According to Think Progress, citing the Forward newspaper, 12 of the 18 living ex-chiefs of Israel's two security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet), are "either actively opposing Netanyahu's stances or have spoken out against them". Of the remaining six, two are current ministers in Netanyahu government, leaving a grand total of four out of 18 who independently support the prime minister.

In short, while Congress dutifully gives Netanyahu 29 standing ovations, the Israelis who know the most about both Netanyahu and Israel's strategic situation think he is a dangerous disaster.

But according to Baer, we ain't seen nothing yet.

There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained.

The Israeli air force would attack "Natanz and other nuclear facilities to degrade their capabilities. The Iranians will strike back where they can: Basra, Baghdad", he said, and even Afghanistan. Then the United States would jump into the fight with attacks on Iranian targets. "Our special forces are already looking at Iranian targets in Iraq and across the border [in Iran] which we would strike. What we're facing here is an escalation, rather than a planned out-and-out war. It's a nightmare scenario. We don't have enough troops in the Middle East to fight a war like that." Baer added, "I think we are looking into the abyss".

Another US war?

Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war.

It should be noted that the Iranian regime is quite capable of triggering a war with the United States through some combination of colossal stupidity and sheer hatred. In fact, as Baer explained, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard would welcome a war. They are "paranoid". They are "worried about ... what's happening to their country economically, in terms of the oil embargo and other sanctions". And they are worried about a population that increasingly despises the regime.

They need an external enemy. Because we are leaving Iraq, it's Israel. But in order to make this threat believable, they would love an attack on their nuclear facilities, love to go to war in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Iraq and hit us where they could. Their defense is asymmetrical. We can take out all of their armored units. It's of little difference to them, same with their surface-to-air missile sites. It would make little difference because they would use terrorism. They would do serious damage to our fleet in the Gulf.

Given all that, is it possible that the United States would allow Israel to attack when the president knows we would be forced to join the war on Israel's side?

"The president is up for re-election next year," Blair pointed out, and Israel is "truly out of control".

What happens when you see 100 F-16's approaching Iraq and there is a call to the White House [from Netanyahu] that says "We're going in, we're at war with Iran"? What does the President of the United States do? He has little influence over Bibi Netanyahu. ... We can't stop him. And he knows it.

It's a pretty frightening scenario, made infinitely more so by the fact that top Israelis (who have heard Netanyahu's thinking from Netanyahu himself) also see the future the same way. Those Israelis deserve a world of credit for sounding the warning bell loudly enough that we would hear it and do something about it - although it's impossible to know if the people who matter are paying attention.

Actually, only one person matters: the US president. If Israel bombed Iran tomorrow, Congress would forget all about their partisan differences and run, not walk, to the House and Senate floors to endorse the attack and call for unstinting support for Israel. That is what Congress always does, and will always do so long as the lobby (and the donors it directs) are the key players in making our Middle East policies.

And who knows what Obama would do? So far, he has not exactly distinguished himself when it comes to standing up to Netanyahu.

But an Israeli attack on Iran would be different. It would endanger countless Americans (in the region and here at home, too). It would kill off any economic recovery by causing oil prices to skyrocket. It would engulf us in another Middle East war. And it would threaten the existence of the state of Israel.

This is something the president needs to focus on instead of being forced to nickel and dime with the likes of Representative Eric Cantor and Senator Mitch McConnell. How incredible that these two, and their right-wing allies, have our government tied in knots in their incessant effort to elevate themselves by destroying the President of the United States. It is sickening.

http://www.zerohedge...rops+to+zero%29

[cgbrown]

We have no money to fight another war.......... 14 trilion in debt .......... bankruptcy on the horizon (at least a default is in the making)...........boy! do we need an RV and in a hurry.

[Francie26]

Yes, it is sickening. But this president is destroying himself through his greed, incompetence, and stupidity. It's a shame, because otherwise, he seems to be a pretty nice guy.

[Jmcc]

Hate to say this, but the President is more concerned about getting re-elected than this nation or you. He does not have the courage or the mind set to do what THIS nation needs to do. Stop spending money. He does not support Israel. The only thing he does support is the campaign cash. Somewhere a line needs to be drawn. We have fought more than one war without ever winning, mainly because of the media. Lord help us if we get into another. FDR could not bring this country out of the depression without all of the spending in WWII. Israel will do what it needs to do to protect itself. Whether the US will get involved is a tossup. And it is not just Obama trying to get re-elected, it is all of our politicians. We as a nation have become to used to the hand out, state or local, school districts included. I have watched this country take away right after right in the name of progressive-ism. And, yes, I have been around a while. Watched both parties do away with what I grew up with as rights. And if you want to know what all of these are, do some history research. When I was a kid I could go anywhere in town without any problem, now if a kid gets off the property it is a major event. We have become progressive, but in the wrong way. Politicians are hot air. All of them. When you decide to take back your country and speak out and tell your people what you want done, then we might make some progress.

[MotorCity]

It is Mr. Obama who wants to destroy this Republic, and has disdain for our Constitution. Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnel are patriotic Americans waving the flag of Freedom, Liberty, and Justice for All!

I for one also admire the Prime Minister of Israel, who made Mr. Obama look like a schoolboy when he lectured him on live TV earlier this year.

Obama is not opposing the division of Jerusalem by the United Nations to reward the Arabs around the globe who would kill every Jew and Christian if possible, and want to set up a UN administered Palestinian state that would simply continue to be a pawn in the hands of murdering terrorist groups.

Israel will not stand by and let the UN and the third world allah/demon worshiping sons of Ishmael destroy their the city given to Abraham and Isaac and Jacob!

Someone needs to stop Iran before they develop atomic bomb capability. Israel has the most to lose if they do, and they are the only ones with the guts and ability to get the job done.

God will bless those who bless Israel, and will curse those who curse her. Read you bible and find out what happened to every nation who opposed Israel. Ancient Persia itself was destroyed after they invaded Israel, killing and plundering.

God Bless America, America, Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!

[Kanga]

It is Mr. Obama who wants to destroy this Republic, and has disdain for our Constitution. Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnel are patriotic Americans waving the flag of Freedom, Liberty, and Justice for All!

I for one also admire the Prime Minister of Israel, who made Mr. Obama look like a schoolboy when he lectured him on live TV earlier this year.

Obama is not opposing the division of Jerusalem by the United Nations to reward the Arabs around the globe who would kill every Jew and Christian if possible, and want to set up a UN administered Palestinian state that would simply continue to be a pawn in the hands of murdering terrorist groups.

Israel will not stand by and let the UN and the third world allah/demon worshiping sons of Ishmael destroy their the city given to Abraham and Isaac and Jacob!

Someone needs to stop Iran before they develop atomic bomb capability. Israel has the most to lose if they do, and they are the only ones with the guts and ability to get the job done.

God will bless those who bless Israel, and will curse those who curse her. Read you bible and find out what happened to every nation who opposed Israel. Ancient Persia itself was destroyed after they invaded Israel, killing and plundering.

God Bless America, America, Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!

Well Said!

So my question is why all the hate against Israel? In their cities at least twice a day and sometimes over 15 times a day they have 15 seconds to get into a bunker so they can live. Every city block has a bunker as 15 seconds is over really quick.

How would we live here in USA if we had to routinely get into a bunker within 15 seconds at least twice a day.

Think about this for, oh 15 seconds!

Does this thought change the way you feel about those super aggressive Israelite ? It certainly did for me.

Edited July 17, 2011 by Kanga

[Texhad]

"I will bless those who bless Abraham and curse those who curse Abraham."

What more do you need to know?

I stand with Israel.

Blessings,

Texhad

[Tiffany23]

When (not if) Israel goes into Iran, the only thing they will need from the US is authorization to cross Iraq air space and possibly satellite imagery. Israel has by far the best trained pilots and the most advanced weapons (thanks to the US) in the Middle East (not counting our warfighters of course) They do not need our help...at least in the air. What they will need is our support when Russia, China and the Arabs have a knipsh@t. The Arab countries will seem to be up in arms but they know that they have neither the will nor the manpower to stop Israel..and behind close doors they will be glad someone whalloped Iran. Trust me, it will be a good ole a$$ whooping, and make the six day war look like a Sunday Church picnic.

I'd bet all my Dinar that Israel goes into Iran...anyone want to bet?

[tinnman77]

Tiff, I enjoy your posts. I will bet you 72 dinar, not because I disagree with you. But because I love to gamble!