FACING THE RUMOR REALITY

[GMartin]

some of your opinions are interesting. The word OPINION seems to be loosely respected as FACT.

Lop, pumpers, sheep, whatever.

Here is the deal. No one knows what's going to happen. All of these countries FORGAVE close to 80% if not all of the debt Iraq has had. Countries DO NOT just FORGIVE DEBT. There are always deals on the side which is called prevey politics. You and I are not entitled to KNOW EVERYTHING that goes on IN THIS COUNTRY, democracy or not.

Here is what I think will happen...MY OPINION NOT FACT

Iraq is telling their people to use USD... they will probably cheat their people like they have done for so long in the past, and other countries who are BIDDING on their money will probably break even with the DEBT that they forgave once it RV's.

Sure it makes sense to RD and not RV. But they would have done that IMMEDIATELY in Ch 7 and not now...If they do that now their currency becomes unstable and that takes YEARS to correct and then their WTO application is on hold. Next, investors would back out and they would be at square one again.

China of all countries wouldn't be HOLDING their hand stating to let the out of BK if there wasn't something in it for them.

They have oil fields, they need investors, they need a stable economy...

Iraq is mostly going to RV, but for those thinking 4 bucks or more...I feel that is nuts. I bet it will be 1:1. Italy, China, Greece, USA, and other countries....all need this RV to happen. No one can keep leading money to other failing countries because they are failing too. Even IRAN and China are both fighting inflation. So why not have 1 country fight inflation when others gain and then INVEST in that country struggling hence causing a stable economy and helping Iraq grow in the process.

Take a chill pill and wait and see or get out of the investments and see where it takes you.

Stop listening to "pumpers" if you feel they are lying. Most people who state they KNOW the FACTS and post it are pumpers...because NO ONE WILL KNOW WHEN THIS WILL RV. It will just happen like Kuwait did. The government is good at playing tricks and lying they have been doing it since it was invented.

[motox565]

Hey, wait a minute!!!!!

I came here to get away from reality... lol

[motox565]

Legolas, I happened upon this post last night. My home is OOM. I seen earlier that you let someone share this, so I shared it with them as well. I am hoping that someone can prove you wrong. But it seems to me a very valid point. So I asked members of that forum to see what they could do in debunking your theory. I'm sure most questions/theories you've already answered, so I may refer them back here to you for that. I certainly do hope that you are wrong, or this is truly the scam of the century Well, here's to hoping that people at OOM know something I don't. I still say go RV!!! And definitely want it to happen first!!! Thanks for your post!

The only way to disprove his theory is to believe in the existence of a second set of books, misleading released information pertaining to Iraqs true intentions ...... ect,

There has been alot of contradicting article through the years and thus, layed the basis for the opposing argument.

[umbertino]

I AM RIGHT AGAIN!

Paper Medal?

[Bogie]

jmw is correct, Iraq's M2 is 59T according to the published data from the CBI.

I've posted this before, IF I was Shabibi, I would do a straight RD....3 zeros off both sides of the equation. RV after the exchange period ends so that all current dinar would either be back in the hands of the CBI, or, no longer be legal tender. This would be the least expensive way to go.

Other countries that RD'ed and then RV'ed did so after their respective exchange periods ended.

From a business point of view, this only makes sense, since Iraq incurs the smallest hit to their reserves this way.

Makes common sense to me too.

This is absolutly the most realistic thread I have been involved in during my short few months of following my 2 yr "investment".

Thanks to all of you over here at DV that are willing to open your eyes, and to those that don't for not bashing us for the buzz kill

[Legolas]

Thanks again gang, for all the great replies and continuing rational discussion. I keep hoping that SOMEONE from SOME site will come back with a logical scenario to explain a straight RV as opposed to the RD/RV suggested here, but I've yet to see anything but "NO LOP" responses from the cheerleaders, indicating that the poster doesn't understand that this scenario does NOT represent the dreaded lop theory by any stretch of the imagination.

No one seems able to refute the fact that Iraq has an M2 of approximately 59 TRILLION Dinars, with at least 27 Trillion in circulation according to the CBI and IMF figures. The country we like to compare and continue to hope the IQD will ultimately equate with is Kuwait, next door to Iraq. Kuwait's Dinar is currently valued at $3.64, and the country has an M2 of around 27 BILLION KWD, meaning that they likely have LESS than that amount in physical circulation. I'm not a mathematician, and my calculator isn't capable of doing that math anyway, but I believe this means that Iraq has about a THOUSAND TIMES more currency in circulation than Kuwait., and we know that the amount in circulation, for all intents and purposes, governs the value of the currency. So somebody has some splainin to do to make the straight RV seem reasonable...... to ME anyway.

The U.S. currently produces 10 times the quantity of oil that Iraq produces daily, and our GDP is roughly $14 TRILLION Dollars annually, as opposed to Iraq's $113 Billion, (many thousands of times higher) so once again, how can Iraq's currency compare in value to the U.S. Dollar if we're looking at resources and potential productivity as many seem to want to do? It is estimated that it will be at least 10 years before Iraq reaches the BPD production rate of the U.S. in oil alone. Soooo, based on the current theories of the gurus, shouldn't we be able to revalue the Dollar and wipe out our national debt overnight? Just sayin, right? Again, I'm not sure, but I can't get the straight RV to work in my economically limited mind. But I keep hoping.

[ocmba]

JMHO but a sovereign nation that has used some of those bills to settle debts outside/inside their borders would not develop much trust/faith in Iraq's financial system. I know right now they are trying to develop foreign investment in their stock market. In other words, In would be a really bad idea to not stand behind their currency because a lot of business is based on the faith of its underlying currency.