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Scooter chat on DD 06/15

linny0830

By linny0830,
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linny0830 Newbie

linny0830

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* Scooter Chat: DDC 6/15/11

JUNE 15TH, 2011 08:41 PM · Scooter: Good evening folks,

Scooter: I hope all is well and thank you for being here tonight!

Scooter: As we did two weeks ago, I am going to lay out some topics and links and then discuss several points related to that topic. At the end, I will take some questions and hand the ball over to my good friend Brietling to answer —- LOL LOL –

Scooter: Brietling — really — I am

Scooter: kidding that is

Scooter: ok ok — Here we go

Scooter: It’s a very exciting time for our investment and tonight I would like to explain some of the reasons.

Scooter: Also, when going through this, please remember the pace and occurrence of good news regarding Iraq and the economy nine months ago versus what’s happening right now.

Scooter: With that said, let’s get started with tonight’s topics – there’s only two!

Scooter: But the second one is in many tiny pieces – LOL LOL

Scooter: So,

Scooter: 1. 2011 Budget – Table of Increases VS. 2010 Table of Increases

Scooter: Here’s the link to the photobucket of images

LINK

Scooter: 2. Calendar of Events until July 1, 2011

Scooter: So onto to the 2011 Table of Increases

Scooter: Here’s the link

LINK

Scooter: Now, to begin, we need to understand the significance of these recently published spreadsheets

Scooter: One, they hold the keys to all the cards — from 2006 Iraq has managed essentially two sets of books

Scooter: sorry – manually typing this part

Scooter: now these spreadsheets have all the details on a departmental level, ministerial level, and executive level

Scooter: but what they show with the table of increases — is essentially the contours of the RV and how it will play out

Scooter: when Iraq makes a budget — they have to pass it like a normal law

Scooter: but they also have to show complete transparency

Scooter: With that said, they need to disclose those budget numbers to the world otherwise, they will never get one dime from the international community

Scooter: so with that said — since 2009 I have been following these books and tracking the increases

Scooter: please remember — these are ratios based on budgetary increases — not a rate — there’s much more that goes into the rate

Scooter: so, in 2009, iraq’s overall rate came in at 1.13

Scooter: In 2010 — we saw the use of the Bahraini Dinar rate for the operational expenses

Scooter: moderate the nominal rate with the Bahraini Dinar rate and the budget came in and rated at 2.05

Scooter: This years numbers were a little different in that they went to a more nominal mode and didn’t release too many details

Scooter: until now — they needed to hold this information back because if they released this back when they were supposed to in December 2010

Scooter: The speculators would have Illiquidated the country before the currency had a chance — well — maybe not that bad

Scooter: but it would have been serious

Scooter: so — 2011 — the emphasis was on the Investment portion of the budget

Scooter: but when you review those images — you’ll see the ratios fluctuate between the bottom 1.16

Scooter: and some absurd out of whack number in the 90′s — as I said these are ratios to determine the end

Scooter: Now the 90′s is exaggeration — but I think you get the picture.

Scooter: what’s interesting about this budget is what they are doing with hard durable goods

Scooter: The rates are in a narrow range between $3.39 to 3. 55

Scooter: Yet — we see Salaries at the normal 1.16 — 1.40 range

Scooter: Overall — there were no surprises and the grand total rate ends up at $1.27

Scooter: We’ll have more analysis on that coming in the future

Scooter: So, lets’s move onto the calendar of events — before I do that — remember 2010 came in at 2.05 and 2011 came in at 1.27

Scooter: the MEAN average for the two years comes out to $1.66

Scooter: And that doesn’t include the additional drainage funds — frozen assets — and the final numbers from the DFI

Scooter: so the reserves could be very SWEET when this currency opens to the market

Scooter: now to events

Scooter: June 15th – DFI Accounts are supposed to have been moved from the UN Account in New York to the US Treasury in Washington D.C.

Will not let me post link here

Scooter: Remember — target end date is June 30th

Scooter: June 16th — Final report is delivered to the UNSC

Scooter: They need a couple of days to naw on that report — hahaha

Scooter: June 17th – FOREX Transactional and Leverage Changes are to be in effect. Going from 200 – 400 to 1 leverage down to 20 to 1.

Scooter: . Hmmmmmmm

Scooter: This has bigger impact than most realize because it changes everything about how to trade on the FOREX. There will be fewer, but longer transactions IMO because the leverage will now be greatly reduced from 200 to 1 down to 20 to 1.

Scooter: That should help control the volatility throughout the emerging markets from the businesses seeking quick, high yielding investments.

Scooter: June 19th – Islamic Banks (Arab Monetary Fund) get digitally connected to Iraq

Scooter: Here’s the link to the Arab Monetary Site —

Scooter: Essentially, the Arab Monetary Fund is a Regional Arab Organisation, Founded in 1976, and has started operations in 1977. Member Countries (22) are: Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Yemen, Comoros.

Scooter: Do any of those countries look familiar — wonder who’s controlling the buttons — or at least some of them

Scooter: They will all be sharing the same transactional system but Iraq will now be participating

Scooter: June 22nd – United Nations Security Council Meet regarding Iraq

Scooter: Wednesday, June 22, 2011 ~ Security Council will discuss the pending issues between Kuwait and Iraq, mainly the missing persons and stolen property.

Will not let me post the link here

Scooter: If all goes well, should be the rubber stamp!!! It needs to because time is running out on the US Debt limit…… The Drama thickens and everything is going down to the wire….

Scooter: June 30th – Banking “Re-Boot” – or before the 30th — which is what I suspect….

Scooter: There’s a reason I bring this to chat tonight in such detail

Scooter: First — I want you to read some paragraphs from IMF CR 10/72 — this is a country report for 2010

Scooter: Here’s what the program looked like in early 2010 – IMF CR 10/72 March 2010

will not let me post link here

Scooter: The banking sector is in urgent need of reform to foster financial intermediation and

enable banks to contribute to the development of a strong private sector. With the help of the

World Bank and other international agencies, we have developed a banking sector reform

strategy.

Scooter: The first important step will be to finalize the restructuring of Rafidain and Rasheed

banks, based on their completed financial and operational audits. In this regard, the foreign

liabilities incurred by Rafidain and Rasheed on behalf of the previous regime and the large

suspense accounts will need be removed from these banks’ balance sheets. We aim to

Scooter: complete the restructuring of the balance sheets of Rafidain and Rasheed by June 30, 2010.

Scooter: Once their balance sheets are cleaned up and restructured, based on the decision already

made by the Economic Committee, the capital of Rafidain and Rasheed will be raised to

ID500 billion and ID400 billion, respectively.

Scooter: Those numbers have now changed to 1.5 Billion ID and 1.1 Billion ID

Scooter: these boys from Babylon really messed those books up —– !!! Do you think there was some corruption going on??????????

Scooter: here’s more

Scooter: We are also strengthening their internal audit capacity, developing legal arrangements within the banks,

and working towards providing missing data identified in the audit reports. The BSA has also completed the financial

and operational audits for the three specialized state-owned banks and has proposed an individual strategy for each

bank that was discussed by the Restructuring Oversight Committee (ROC).

Scooter: The three banks have set up a restructuring committee which includes BSA members to

implement the recommendations from the proposed strategy.

Scooter: 35. The authorities adopted a banking sector reform program in early 2009. This

program was developed with the support of the World Bank, in coordination with other

providers of technical assistance, including the Fund. A key element of the reform program is

the operational and financial restructuring of the two largest banks, Rafidain and Rasheed

Scooter: (MEFP ¶22). Operational and financial audits of these two banks were completed by an

independent auditor in 2008. Their operational restructuring envisages a new organizational

structure, including the establishment of business units (retail, corporate and investment

banking); risk management units; and governance, control and support units.

Scooter: The financial restructuring will first involve cleaning up the banks’ balance sheets and removing the legacy

of bad debts and suspense accounts and working out the fiscal implications. During a second

phase, the banks’ capital will be brought up to the required levels.

Scooter: Now, I bring this data into play because there’s been some that came with a strong argument that this action could not be related to the RV

Scooter: Hence,

Scooter: Present day — and please don’t get me wrong — that was a GREAT POST!!!

Scooter: but — when you look at the CBI Audit by Ernst and Young — They used the word ReValue three times — big no no

Scooter: and one of the locations was in reference to the Government Bank Re-Boots

Scooter: now — let’s take a look at 2011 CR 10/73

Scooter: Here’s some verbage from the latest report 10/73 — 2011

Scooter: 12. Financial intermediation is at a very low level in Iraq. A functioning banking sector is

essential for the development of a strong private sector. We have begun to embark on our

banking sector reform strategy:

Scooter: A critical step will be to complete the financial restructuring of the two largest state owned

banks, Rafidain and Rasheed, based on their completed financial and operational audits.

Scooter: OK — that’s cool — they’ve done the audits…

Scooter: In this regard, we formed a Bank Reconciliation Unit that comprises technical level staff from the banks, the CBI and the Ministry of Finance, and with the assistance of Ernst and Young (who were the agents of the Ministry of Finance in the external debt restructuring process) to:

Scooter: (i) deal with all legacy external Liabilities taking into account the government’s actions in the context of Iraq’s external debt restructuring

Scooter: First — please make note — when you change a Balance Sheet — Equity, Liabilities, and Assets change

Scooter: Essentially — when this occurs — the whole bank — or in this case the two government banks — get organically Revalued

Scooter: now — take the capitial infusion — on top of the debt restructuring — which was billions — and you have a completely, brand new bank !!!!

Scooter: Now, to let you all know, this was originally slated for June 30, 2010 — However they couldn’t track down two suspense accounts and the Terrorist attack on the cbi knocked out one of the three major transactional hubs.

chicosan: Scooter — what is the significance of the various rates – how do those numbers show us anything about the potential for the IQD?

Scooter: ok — if you have a nominal rate of 1170 — and you maintain those books at that rate — and then you look at the REAL or REER Equilibrium rate — there’s going to be a decrease or increase based on consumer pricing, inflation, etc…. — if you have a crawling peg like they do now — they’ll never be able to determine Inflation or when the curency gets stronger

Scooter: one last thing — they needed to save for this RV — since 2006 — they’ve been paying out the 16 – 17 regions at the REAL rate ….

chicosan: rate… ratio… how do these numbers relate to RV potential?

Scooter: Chico — if their CPI –Consumer Price Index was just modified based on the REAL Equilibrium RATE —- they would never be able to buy a loaf of bread staying at the nominal rate

Scooter: and — they changed that CPI back in March 2010 —

Scooter: so prices for food, gas, homes, everything is going to be based on the true rate —

Scooter: now if they are spending their budget at the REAL rate — and the consumers are spending at the REAL rate — What absolultely needs to occur to the currency?

Scooter: Yep — they need to bring the basis of goods and services in line with the PPP — purchasing power ….

lightworker: does the re-boot involve all the banks globally or just the Iraqi banks?

Scooter: No. Just the two gov. banks that do 80% approx. of all the banking

dreamzmadeforever: so based on all that info. you posted, isnt it kind of obvious they are set to RV very soon?

Scooter: I sure hope so — otherwise I need to be in the little padded room with no windows — yes indeed!

danielcat: Do you think that Warka Bank will still be a safe place to invest in post RV

Scooter: I’m not a professional Financial advisor — so I can’t make too many recommendations or provide advice — but I sure feel more comfortable with Citibank beside them

Scooter: ooops — who says that it isn’t already completed

cps: scooter you are just amazing in how you research things. thank you. IYO are good for june 30th

Scooter: I love June — but I’ve also told myself to wait until July 10th because July 11th is the first Paris club payment —

danielcat: Do you think the two major banks merger will take place before the 30th?

Scooter: I do — They have been under the Banking Sector Reform since April 2009

Scooter: Ok — last one — then I need to get home …

bubbie: can they wait till 2012 or later to rv!

Scooter: bubbie my friend — good to see you ….

Scooter: they could wait until 2012 — however — I would think with the backlog of investment opps and the forward derivatives which occured — that wouldn’t be the case

Scooter: In reality my friend — anything can occur

Scooter: ok folks — I very much appreciate the time — and I hope it was worthwhile –

Scooter: I hope you have a great evening and I am heading out of the office — Good Night all

tenmillion: Thank you Scoote

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Darin Newbie

Darin

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I think...Scooter, is a genius.

I will never ever have the knowledge he has when it comes to the dinar. Even if I tried, he would always be ahead of me in this investment.

Thankfully, we have a guy like this going into DETAIL on how this goes down, what to look for, why things are happening, and so forth.

Btw, I find the padded room comment very very funny.

I guess, guessing from the amount of research he has done, and to strongly believe one thing to happen & it does NOT happen, than with that said, I would go crazy too.

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linny0830 Newbie

linny0830

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I think...Scooter, is a genius.

I will never ever have the knowledge he has when it comes to the dinar. Even if I tried, he would always be ahead of me in this investment.

Thankfully, we have a guy like this going into DETAIL on how this goes down, what to look for, why things are happening, and so forth.

Btw, I find the padded room comment very very funny.

I guess, guessing from the amount of research he has done, and to strongly believe one thing to happen & it does NOT happen, than with that said, I would go crazy too.

I agree Darin with how amazing Scooter is. I admire all here that takes their time to put all of this together so It helps me to explain the investment and understand what I have. Thank you Scooter!!! and many others as well.

Linny

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Carrello Rising Star

Carrello

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Scooter, thank you for everything you bring to us. It takes a special mind to wrap around this type of information and still remain a normal person in a Hawaiian shirt and a smile.

As far as chuckst3r's earlier post and Rudy, I hope the situation works out, and you come out on top, where you belong. You are too good not to be surrounded by the best and brightest, and the best intentioned.

Take care.

Carrello

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Darin Newbie

Darin

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I agree Darin with how amazing Scooter is. I admire all here that takes their time to put all of this together so It helps me to explain the investment and understand what I have. Thank you Scooter!!! and many others as well.

Linny

What I value you about Scooter are two things

1) (The obvious) The amount of research, time, effort, and so forth researching the IQD debacle. Bar none, I doubt many can compete with the amount of work he has done with the exception of people directly associated with the bigger picture.

2) Here is the 2nd part, the fact that not only does he spread this knowledge to the dinar community, but he bounces ideas and looks for feedback. This helps him get challenged to ensure his information is accurate. Therefore, if he is posting something he believes to be true and someone finds out that is not the case.. He'll adjust with that new information. He'll than apply it and continue going on & moving forward. So what does this do for the speculative investors? They get the rest of the community educated to a higher degree to research a little on their own and bring pertinent data to Scoot's attention to apply it to the bigger picture. Long-story short, he'll always be ahead of the curve than anyone else studying the investment.

Anyways, here is hoping to a R/V occurring soon. God knows that Scoot needs that mental vacation :) :) :)

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