New Intel on the RV by Marcus Curtis

[Discipledan]

Shabibi's address to the US Chamber of Commerce and the RV

Marcus Curtis | May 1, 2011 at 10:30 pm | Categories: Iraqi Dinar | URL: http://w*******m-74

Lately time has been a precious commodity. I have been spending a lot of time working extra hours, and working in the studio. I have also been a guest writer for my good friend Jerry Robinson and his financial ministry site “Follow The Money.” The information on this financial planning site is very good. It will help you gain a good perspective and develop a strategy for a pending RV. Here are just two of the articles I have written for him.

http://ftmdaily.com/...hysical-silver/

http://ftmdaily.com/...reak-the-cycle/

While all this has been going on I have been watching from the side lines all the debate over the Shabibi videos. I watched Frank change his rate. I saw all the supposed gurus in the know scramble to come up with explanations as to why their rates are wrong, what the hold ups are, And how everything will unfold. I also watched a new generation of lopster monsters attack the forums. I have wanted to address these things but I have been lacking the time to do so. I will address them now.

As many of my readers know I am not a rate and date guy. I don’t put rates out there for one simple reason. I have no hard evidence. This does not mean I don’t have a belief about what I think the rate will be. I have shared my belief with close friends. I have shared the revalue process in an article called “The Truth About The Iraqi Dinar part 5.” My belief on this scenario has changed a little bit since this article was written. I am about to reveal my opinion on the rate. While I believe in a little different process my belief about the rate has not changed. Before I talk about the process that I believe will unfold soon we need to look at the videos containing Shabibis speech. For those who don’t know, Dr. Sinan Al-Shabibi is the head guy at the Central Bank of Iraq. (CBI) As the governor of CBI Shabibi has the sole power of setting the rate. This power was given to him by the Iraqi constitution. So now let us watch the videos and see his plans to raise the value of this currency.

watch?v=Q56aohs98iI&playnext=1&list=PL668F4FE1E0D58A02

watch?v=EY9oXjJRXzk&feature=related

watch?v=6jy0T9HVYFA&feature=related

watch?v=ZBtffE1AD1s&feature=related

Now let us address some points that Mr. Shabibi raised.

Video 1

In the first Video Dr. Shabibi gave an overview of Iraq’s condition before 2003. He went on to point out that Iraq had high inflation, A huge external debt, and a weak currency. Because of sanctions Iraq had low oil output and high unemployment. Iraq also had damage to it's infrastructure. He went on to say that policies to respond to sanctions were not adequate.

He also said that in 2003 it was important to obtain stability politically and in economics. Without this they could not move forward. Iraq needed to stabilize the exchange rate to lower inflation. The CBI concentrated on the stability of the exchange rate. (fixed rate) This set up stable parameters.

Side note: Dr.shabibi seems to believe that a fixed exchange rate helped stabilize Iraq and controlled Inflation. He went on to say “Today we paved the groundwork for government to act. No more worry about exchange rate and inflation. This will attract investors”

Video 2

Dr. Shabbi said that the economic side, the political side, and the security side should all work hand in hand to provide stability. He briefly talked about currency wars and nations printing too much currency and increasing the money supply. He talked about having the reserves to counter that approach. He said, nobody is responsible for rate stability. They were using currency auctions to stabilize the exchange rate. He also said that the global increase in food prices will affect the exchange rate. He said that the government will help the private sector.

Video 3

This was the question and answer part of his presentation. It was also the most telling. The first question was: Will there be a revalue of the Iraqi Currency to foreign and domestic investors? How long before this happens to the Iraqi currency?

Dr. Shabbi said that it depends on controlling inflation and maintaining price stability. Other factors are trade, imports and exports. Inflation will be a deciding factor in adjusting the exchange rate. He said they are going to revisit the exchange rate.

Another question was: It has been said in the news media that Iraq will cut 3 zeros and it plans to redenominate it’s currency. Is there any truth to this? Shabibi responded by saying there is a lot of talk from people writing articles saying the value of the dinar will depreciate. This is not the case. This is just a way to ease counting. They have a plan and conditions are different now. Shabibi said “Removing the three zeros will go hand in hand with adjusting the exchange rate. We have been studying when and we will implement this soon.” He went on to say that they will need the help of the security forces. They need to become less busy with violence.

Video 4

This is the last part of the question and answer section. The question was: What affect did the drop in policy rate have on lending? (side note the policy rate is what we would call the interest rate here in America which is set by the Federal Reserve)

Dr. Shabbi said when inflation is high they raise the policy rate. The policy rates the banks use to lend are different then the CBI’s rate. What judges the banks rates are the markets. The policy rate set by the CBI is a guideline for banks to follow. Banks don’t always follow the CBI rate due to things like risk. Banks like to play it safe by putting money in the CBI and participating in currency auctions. Problems with uncertainty in loans and problems with the banks will be resolved soon.

My Analysis,

It is evident to me that any Revalue scenario will use a fixed rate of exchange not a floating rate. Shabibi credits a fixed rate with providing stability with inflation and stability in the economy. It is highly unlikely he will abandon this when Iraq needs stability the most. That is when they implement their plan to remove the zeros and raise the value of the dinar.

Dr.Shabibi has said that raising the exchange rate of the dinar goes hand in hand with controlling inflation and maintaining price stability. He also said that redenomination will go hand in hand with raising the exchange rate. Typically there are two ways inflation can be controlled.

First: raising interest rates. When interest rates are raised consumer spending drops. This decreases demand and increases supply. This works to bring down prices in all markets.

Second: Raising the exchange rate. When the exchange rate is raised against foreign currency imports become cheaper. This is something Iraq desperately needs to do to help rebuild infrastructure. Most of the materials needed for this will be imported. When Imports compete with goods manufactured in country it brings down prices. This should not affect Iraq’s chief export which is oil. This is because oil is bought and sold using US dollars. Raising the exchange rate is a great plan when the imports are too expensive. This is something China is even considering.

http://en.21cbh.com/...tion-Forex.html

Whenever you use the word redenomination the lopsters come out from hiding. They typically say see we told you so! Here comes the lop! Their main argument and point seems to stem from Iraq having some 24 trillion dinar in circulation in Iraq. They say there is no way Iraq can revalue their currency for even $1.00 because that would put the equivalent of 24 trillion in US dollars in circulation and that would destroy their economy. The problem is they are right. If there was a one-time revalue of a dollar that would put way to much currency in circulation.

Now let’s reverse that. If Iraq were to lop the way they claim one old 25,000 dinar note is equal to one new 25 dinar. that would only bring an amount equal to 24 billion in US dollar value. This would be the entire Iraqi dinar money supply. This would not work. Consider that Iraq’s budget for 2011 is equal to 82.6 billion US dollars. A lop of the currency would not even meet a third of the budget let alone provide extra currency for the people of Iraq to use. So obviously both scenarios are wrong!

Let’s revisit the main points Dr. Shabibi made in these videos

1. A fixed exchange rate brought stability to Inflation and the currency. Translation= during the RV process the rate will remain fixed to provide stability.

2. Currency Auctions are used to stabilize the exchange rate and the global increase in food prices will have a direct effect on the exchange rate. Translation= Currency auctions will continue to play a role in the RV. The exchange rate will increase to combat higher food prices because a higher exchange rate directly affects the cost of importing food.

3. In video 3 Dr. Shabibi said that a revalue would depend on controlling inflation and maintaining price stability. Translation= A revalue will lower imports and will be used to control inflation.

4. Shabibi said a redenomination and removing the zeros would just be a way to make counting easier. Translation= He downplayed a lot of what was written on the redenomination. His definition of Redenominating is one and the same with removing the currency with 3 zeros.

Side note: If a lop were to play out Iraq would need to replace all the currency in circulation. You simply cannot take an old 250 dinar note and now say that it is worth more than this old 10,000 dinar note. So in the event of a lop Iraq would need to replace all currency. Shabibi constantly makes reference to removing the zeros while implying that they are keeping the lower denominations in circulation.

5. Removing the Zeros will go hand in hand with adjusting the exchange rate. Translation= as we pull the notes with three zeros out of circulation we will raise the exchange rates.

6. We will be implementing this soon. Translation= no translation required

7. Problems with uncertainty in loans and problems with the banks will be resolved soon. Translation RV baby!!!!!

You may not agree with the way I have read between the lines, but before you object let me present my RV scenario with the rates. Notice I said rates and not rate.

Before I talk about the rates I want to make one thing clear. First and foremost this is strictly my opinion and this does not mean that what I am about to tell you will come to pass. I do not know anyone on the inside. I don’t have any connections or inside information. I have no secret information or intel. This is completely guess work on my part and it is not to be taken as fact because I really don’t know for sure.

I believe things will play out mainly like the scenario I wrote about in the article. The Truth About The Iraqi Dinar part 5. The main difference now is I believe the rate will be fixed. It will not float. This is how I believe events will happen.

There will not be one-time revalue event. Lopsters provide too much proof for this. The exchange rate will adjust and begin to move up in a controlled way. If it floats the CBI has no control. When it gets to a certain point maybe a penny to ten cents lower denominations will be put into circulation. When this happens the notes with 3 zeros will be removed from circulation.

The rate will continue to go up and more notes will be removed from circulation and the CBI will contract the currency supply. Now Iraq is making money off the float and off the spread. There is a controlled exchange rate in the currency markets and the auctions. For example, The dinar the CBI purchased for 1 penny is now being sold for 10 cents. At the same time they decrease the supply of the currency through the auctions and the markets. The exchange rate will continue to go up as Dr. Shabibi monitors Inflation and releases more lower denominations. All the while CBI is making money, financing the revalue, and reducing currency supply through the auctions and the currency markets.

As the rate increases Iraq continues to make money off a controlled float. For example, It may be that they raise the rate over time to 50 cents. This means all the currency they purchased below this amount can now be redistributed for a profit. This will also be a way for Iraq to contract the money supply because they will not need to issue as much to break even and they will not take a loss when doing so.

Finally this scenario plays out and the value of the dinar stabilizes somewhere around $1.20. I believe the rate will wind up somewhere between the dollar and the euro. Then once Iraq has a stable place in the World Trade Organization and infrastructure is rebuilt. It could go up from there. This could all take place over a period of a few months. Of course this scenario could play out a number of different ways. One thing is for sure. I don’t see a one-time revalue event. I never did. I see a gradual increase over a very short period of time. Mr. rich can verify that this was my guess at a target rate. I gave credence to the one-time revalue event for two reasons.

1.So many of my friends believed in a one-time revalue event and I thought people knew more than me concerning this investment. I thought they knew something I did not know.

2. I really don’t know how this will play out. Everything is speculation on my part. What do I know?

What has been the hold up?

With certainty the main hold up is security. I think Dr. Shabibi verified that in these 4 videos. I now believe another hold up has been the Iraqi court attempting to circumvent the constitution and hand over the power of the CBI to Maliki. In Shabibi’s last letter of intent to the IMF he addresses this and he says he will continue to fight this. He said “We remain firmly committed to maintaining the independence of the CBI, as well as to ensuring that all of Iraq’s oil exports are in accordance with international agreements and that all oil export revenues accrue to the central government.”

The report also said “The CBI will continue to be independent in the pursuit of its policy objectives. The CBI’s monetary and exchange rate policies will continue to be aimed at keeping inflation in the low single digits and safeguarding international reserves.” It is pretty obvious to me that this was a big concern for Shabibi and the CBI

http://www.imf.org/e.../irq/030311.pdf

Edited May 2, 2011 by Bumper64
Edited out a link to another dinar site

[AJ 37]

Hi disipledan Very logical analysis. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong. Cheers

[hemecity]

Thanks for this post. I checked Marcus' page this AM, but didn't see this. It looks good, and, if so, is the best analysis I've seen recently, particularly the LOP issue.

heme

[gbosh]

Interesting, thanks for the analysis and detailed post.

I wonder how a reval scenario like this will play out with respect to the OSI model/plans..... Adam?

gbosh

[jkg1713]

Thank you for the post. Very interesting and informative.

[R2d2dc]

Thanks for the post. Great thinking and a very interesting view!!!

[seanwestes]

I, too, would like to hear Adam's view on how a scenario like this would change current OSI strategy. Perhaps one of us should start a new thread over in the OSI forum?

[summershah]

Thanks for the post.

[matt77]

Very interesting. Thanks for the post.

[jphillips]

Marcus. Thank you for taking the time to write a very clear and concise analysis of the current situation. Even though it is speculation, I find value in what has been a concern of mine since the beginning of this roller coaster ride, the monetization of a full value RV and the concern of how it would be funded. Your views regarding a managed ride up in value make sense and address this issue that has been nagging me. I always questioned the ability to pull off a one-time event and it is good to have some validation.

I think the only item that was not addressed in your post is that of value vs. speculation. The argument against managed float up is that an RV that is too low in value will proportionately attract speculators and work to destabilize the currency. I actually see the opposite and think the more speculation the better as it distributes the IQD and brings it closer to being a world-traded currency. Additionally, I think CBI has been working fervently to manage speculation through monetary supply controls.

Your post was very insightful.

[Ore]

Good read. Thanks for the post.

[nettie]

Great read! Thanks for your take on things, sounds very realistic!

[M.D.]

Thanks for the post shows good critical analysis well stated

[kox]

Good post...very informative, Thanks

[quadraph0nic]

wow...

I don't find myself disagreeing with anything he has to say. In fact, he ties some of the ideas that's been going on in my head together real nicely.

A straight LOP would be too much for the Iraq to bare. This has to be done gradually. I've said it before but I think and I hope it will be some kind of appreciation. Marcus lays out an interesting scenario. That would be nice...

A straight revalue...a one time event, like a turning on a light switch is way to disruptive to society and the economy. I've gone back and forth with it so much but I believe that now. Sorry for those that are truly banking on that possibility. Don't get me wrong would love to see an RV w/no lop happen any kind of way but....when you get serious, you have to think about how they would make this work.

Well done Marcus Curtis!

Thank you sir!

[HopefulTxn]

Now let’s reverse that. If Iraq were to lop the way they claim one old 25,000 dinar note is equal to one new 25 dinar. that would only bring an amount equal to 24 billion in US dollar value. This would be the entire Iraqi dinar money supply. This would not work. Consider that Iraq’s budget for 2011 is equal to 82.6 billion US dollars. A lop of the currency would not even meet a third of the budget let alone provide extra currency for the people of Iraq to use. So obviously both scenarios are wrong!

Sorry but this is complete bunk... Iraq generates the funds to cover their budget from oil sales, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the size of their monetary system... They do not have to have a dinar base larger than their budget, they simply need their oil revenue to exceed their budget in order to not create a deficit... Simply take a look at their previous budgets and monetary base values and you will see this is, as I mentioned before, complete bunk...

[Texhad]

Very impressive analysis. Well thought out and presented.

Thank you for taking the time to create this easy to read and understand synopsis.

This addresses more facets of the various issues involved than anything I have seen to date.

Go RV!

Blessings,

Texhad

[quadraph0nic]

Sorry but this is complete bunk... Iraq generates the funds to cover their budget from oil sales, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the size of their monetary system... They do not have to have a dinar base larger than their budget, they simply need their oil revenue to exceed their budget in order to not create a deficit... Simply take a look at their previous budgets and monetary base values and you will see this is, as I mentioned before, complete bunk...

oooh....well yeah...thats why they attach a price per barrel in those budget articles i supppose....aaack!!

Still though....i thought it was a good read.

[dinarck]

Sorry but this is complete bunk... Iraq generates the funds to cover their budget from oil sales, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the size of their monetary system... They do not have to have a dinar base larger than their budget, they simply need their oil revenue to exceed their budget in order to not create a deficit... Simply take a look at their previous budgets and monetary base values and you will see this is, as I mentioned before, complete bunk...

You may be correct but I sure hope Iraq decides to go the route he describes other than a redenomination. The trillions in circulation is the one issue that has been eating at me. I figured there was no way around it. The senerio he described actually makes sense. I could see it going down this way and truely hope that it does. Darin brought this to the table recently and really spurred hope into me that a redenomination was not their only option. Guess we wait and see which road they take.

[Darin]

Sorry but this is complete bunk... Iraq generates the funds to cover their budget from oil sales, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the size of their monetary system... They do not have to have a dinar base larger than their budget, they simply need their oil revenue to exceed their budget in order to not create a deficit... Simply take a look at their previous budgets and monetary base values and you will see this is, as I mentioned before, complete bunk...

Sorry, but I think your taking that portion out of context. I don't believe he is simply stating that the entire currency in circulation has to do with the budget. I believe he is just comparing the two.

Here is another example I use when comparing the entire money supply post-Lop. If we turn 27 Trillion into 27 Billion, than we find the USD value by multiplying by $0.85, that put us at roughly 24 billion USD. Considering that the CBI likely has recently pulled 3 trillion from circulation (according to an article I can not seem to find the link) in reality the actual value of USD in circulation would be closer to 20 billion USD.

One would have to wonder how there are individuals in the world worth more than that, not to mention numerous corporations (Many which are involved with oil such as exxon, bp, etc.) For a country that may wish to show their wealth, such a low money supply for ciruclation would be rather crazy. For those that need an understanding of their culture, the people are a little more weary of using banks and prefer the use of hard currency. Westernized culture, such as the U.S., relies heavily on banks (Think of how often we use cash now days, and how it goes through a banking channel.... Whether we are depositing funds, withdrawing funds, setting up direct deposits, using a check card, credit card, writing a check, and so forth). So, we have to assume the hard currency ratio to eletronic currency would be rather high.

We can only speculate what "may" happen. But if we reference the low auciton sales which help maintain liquidity, we have to realize that the low auction sales may push up inflation. How do we decrease inflation? Well, increasing the exchange rate will reduce the price of imported goods..

There are many factors that we are aware of, and likely just as many factors we are unaware of. Than we have to consider how much fact backs any article we read. We can see several articles speaking of the removal of 3 0s, and now have confirmation from Shabs in regards to that issue, but he still leaves us all a little confused on the subject even when explaining the process in English.

The best way I can translate his message is how he referred to how the 3 0s were introduced. The 3 0s were introduced over time as inflation grew. They did not print a brand new currency to reflect the inflation, they just added bigger denominations to help transactions. So, if they were to remove the 3 0s, would it likely be possible they do this within the same regard on how the 3 0s were introduced? I would believe so. Increase the exchange rate, to remove the bigger bills. This while done over time can reduce the currency within circulation, build up the cash reserves, and as this progression continues, lower denominations may become more necessary to make transacitons. I think Curtis has the right idea of mind on how this may play out. I think for success, it may take a long period of time (Such as Ali once mentioned it to be as of recent) but who knows exactly as it can change at a moments notice.

As the value goes up..... Some people may find themselves comfortable at their return and cash out. Those that forget about it & hold it for a long-term, could reep the biggest gains. I hope the scenario plays out better to our favor, but I believe this scenario is more likely than a complete re-denomination of a currency. Sadly, this may extend our ride even longer while a re-denomination may put the end to it sooner.

My overall hope would be to see significant jumps from each time they update the rate. Maybe double the value each time... That would be nice... Think if the value doubled each year.

Year 1: $1k (Initial investment)

Year 2: $2

Year 3: $4

Year 4: $8

Year 5: $16

Year 6: $32

and so forth. Doubling ever year would likely be out of the question, but who knows how fast the rate could increase. Too fast, and speculators may jump in to buy up the total currency.

There are no right answers in speculation, but there are several routes the CBI can take to take full advantage of their situation IMO.

[AudiS4]

You'd have to more than double every year. Speculators would come in if every may 15th the dinar doubled in value.

I agree with this opinion piece. This is what I've thought for a while now. Very well thought out that covers all the "gotcha!"'s

I just hope the transition is quick (few months) to $1. Also a bit concerned that at some point the larger notes will be declared "expired" and it will be too late to do anything about them.

[HYDRANT]

THANKS FOR THE POST--I READ THIS THIS MORNING

[speculatorsRIDE]

I would still like to hear Adam's take on this. Any chance of him visiting this thread?

[TFK]

I've been reading Marcus' stuff for some time now. He is very grounded and very realistic.

No Lop, no Redenomination, just an overnight RV of, lets say a nickel, and a subsequent slow, increasing value on the Dinar. (Without any type of time limit. It's the way the US and Canada both removed their large denomination bills. They still retain their value to this day if your lucky enough to own some.)

I myself would probably sell some of my Dinar as it continued to increase. The temptation would be just to great. This is what Iraq would be counting on and would make huge profits buying and selling their currency to speculators and investors on the ForEx money markets. I personally would sit on my main stash of Dinars as long as possible in order to capitalze on the highest value possible.

This scenerio of gradual increase over a fairly short period of time, lets say a year or two, would be a win win for everybody, especially Iraq! This isn't to much different than watching gold, silver and oil increase, except we're in on the bottom floor and not having to buy it at expensive prices.

We bought in when it was really cheap and it's about to be turbocharged with value. Rememeber when you were a kid and gold was $32 an ounce? Who'd ever have thought it would be 48 times that value today. Financial fortunes have been won by many people over the years doing just what we're doing now. We're in it at the beginning and we're going to make a lot of money. Hang in there everyone!

[imgesing]

I've been reading Marcus' stuff for some time now. He is very grounded and very realistic.

No Lop, no Redenomination, just an overnight RV of, lets say a nickel, and a subsequent slow, increasing value on the Dinar. (Without any type of time limit. It's the way the US and Canada both removed their large denomination bills. They still retain their value to this day if your lucky enough to own some.)

I myself would probably sell some of my Dinar as it continued to increase. The temptation would be just to great. This is what Iraq would be counting on and would make huge profits buying and selling their currency to speculators and investors on the ForEx money markets. I personally would sit on my main stash of Dinars as long as possible in order to capitalze on the highest value possible.

This scenerio of gradual increase over a fairly short period of time, lets say a year or two, would be a win win for everybody, especially Iraq! This isn't to much different than watching gold, silver and oil increase, except we're in on the bottom floor and not having to buy it at expensive prices.

We bought in when it was really cheap and it's about to be turbocharged with value. Rememeber when you were a kid and gold was $32 an ounce? Who'd ever have thought it would be 48 times that value today. Financial fortunes have been won by many people over the years doing just what we're doing now. We're in it at the beginning and we're going to make a lot of money. Hang in there everyone!

A nickle? Are you for real? SERIOUSLY?! Ok I need to chill on that... No way they will sell themselves out at even .75 You need to use your brain here.

They will come out possibly and likely at low 1 USD range and work up from there. They stand to make a lot on the exchange YES but not shoot themselves in the process. Once this comes out watch it go up fairly quickly. I forewarn all of you not to cash all out in the first week or two. You will see why quickly. But a nickle or below even .75 cents is totally not gonna happen IMO... NO WAY! If they come out that low better sell everything you own and buy more... We will all own IRAQ..more then we already do... That is just one reason alone... Very unreasonable low.

By the way you should read past articles to see what has been said for years on the rate and RV scenarios by SHABIBI and MALIKI etc. Not that they are being honest but it foreshadows some of this. Also totally wipes out the theory of that low an RV rate.

We will see... Right.