RV Theory

[observer2]

This is only a theory, so bare with me, and follow me for a moment.

Let's look at some numbers!

( I have always heard if you want to know something, follow the money?)

On 3/31/11 the CBI currency auction sold this day in dollars 116,438,000 AND Let's say Iraq is averaging 2 million barrels of OIL PER DAY

This was a low amount compared to the last previous 6 BOPD 2,000,000

months, averaging over 150,000,000 per day Since 1/1/11 oil selling over $100/B x 100

For the sake of this discussion, let's use the 1st number

for an AVERAGE DAILY CURRENCY AUCTION SOLD 116,438,000 Total dollars made per day 200,000,000

5 DAYS PER WEEK AUCTION x 5

Total currency sold per week 582,190,000 SINCE 1/1/11 (90 DAYS) X 90

12 weeks since the first of the year Total dollars made since 1/1/11 18,000,000,000

hollidays. x 12 We know this number will be low for the overall

annual oil sells because Iraq is projected to be

ANNUAL CURRENCY SOLD to Date 6,986,280,000 at 3 million barrels per day by the end of the year

Since the first of the years, Iraq as made aproximately 24,986,280,000 in USD If you multiply that by 4 quarters in a year, that is almost 100 billions USD!

Isn't that way more than they budgeted for?

Why do they need to RV at all?

Unless, I heard yesterday, the CURRENCY supply is running dry???

Could it be that the RV was not a spacific date, but in fact WHEN A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DINAR WAS SOLD!

If the currency is in fact running out, and Iraq has their CUSHION now, they are pretty much safe for the rest of the year, unless the price of oil bottoms out!!! But then you still have the increase of BARRELS OF OIL

pumped per day to offset that if it happens.

Any thoughts!!

[DEL RIO]

GET ME **** CHANNEY ON THE PHONE !!! LOL !!!

[DesertPete]

Iraq doesn't get $100/barrel. As I recall from some other discussions they receive a lesser amount. I believe that it was either $32 or $42 per barrel.

Also, given their track record, the math would be just too much for them. If they were depending on some work only 3 day a week "book cooking" bean counter to tell them when to RV my guess is that they would be in "DEEP Yogurt" before they could figure out what hit them.

Edited April 1, 2011 by DesertPete

[FOUNDIT]

It depends on who the contract is with....We pay them 42 per barrel.Also Kuwait gets a 5% cut of Iraqs total oil proceeds for war reps.

[timborders]

Not only that but from what I have seen they have contracted out, in work to be done, more than they have budgeted for.

[Darin]

If they were averaging 2,000,000 barrels per day, one thing to keep in mind is that they are accumulating that amount on a "daily" basis. This would include all days of the week (7 days per week)

Okay, so we figure roughly 356 days per year. What is it we would assume would be the amount they get per barrel?

DesertPete suggested $32-$42 per barrel. For the sake of the theory, lets use the lower # ($32)

Okay, 2,000,000 x $32 = 64,000,000 per day x 365 days in a year = $23,360,000,000 a year. (On oil revenue alone)

The country draws profit from other sectors as well (Natural Gas, agricultural) - Finding those #s would be easy upon some research.

I am not sure what amount of Natural Gas they export, however, I do realize that Kurdistan sits above a large amount of Natural Gas reserves.

Another thing to consider, cost of crude is staying pretty stable at 100$/barrel and with the U.S. having their summer months, they could push the demand up which in turn pushes up the value of each barrel.

What were their budget #s? I am pretty sure it was in trillions.. I wish to say it was roughly 90T (Which is awkward, considering many people have said only 27T of IQD are in circulation)

We should only view that 90T # as a figure and assume it is really 90B. Interesting, because it seems that Oil Revenue roughly makes up for about only 25% of the funds to pay for the budget for the year.

There must be some other key factors that I have missed or something.

Not only that but from what I have seen they have contracted out, in work to be done, more than they have budgeted for.

Interesting point.... Not to mention loans that need to be re-paid.

But a few things to consider:

Upon lifting of Ch. 7, they'll be able to do business with ease on an international level

Upon the HCL law, they'll be able to sell crude on a commercial level

Upon June 2011, they'll have the releasing of the DFI funds which I believe is amounted at over 50B USD

However, upon the release of the DFI, may go towards paying off foreign debt.

Not entirely sure how much debt they've accrued, but, maybe where they fall short is where the benefits of a RV take place?

[Danielsan]

If they were averaging 2,000,000 barrels per day, one thing to keep in mind is that they are accumulating that amount on a "daily" basis. This would include all days of the week (7 days per week)

Okay, so we figure roughly 356 days per year. What is it we would assume would be the amount they get per barrel?

DesertPete suggested $32-$42 per barrel. For the sake of the theory, lets use the lower # ($32)

Okay, 2,000,000 x $32 = 64,000,000 per day x 365 days in a year = $23,360,000,000 a year. (On oil revenue alone)

The country draws profit from other sectors as well (Natural Gas, agricultural) - Finding those #s would be easy upon some research.

I am not sure what amount of Natural Gas they export, however, I do realize that Kurdistan sits above a large amount of Natural Gas reserves.

Another thing to consider, cost of crude is staying pretty stable at 100$/barrel and with the U.S. having their summer months, they could push the demand up which in turn pushes up the value of each barrel.

What were their budget #s? I am pretty sure it was in trillions.. I wish to say it was roughly 90T (Which is awkward, considering many people have said only 27T of IQD are in circulation)

We should only view that 90T # as a figure and assume it is really 90B. Interesting, because it seems that Oil Revenue roughly makes up for about only 25% of the funds to pay for the budget for the year.

There must be some other key factors that I have missed or something.

Interesting point.... Not to mention loans that need to be re-paid.

But a few things to consider:

Upon lifting of Ch. 7, they'll be able to do business with ease on an international level

Upon the HCL law, they'll be able to sell crude on a commercial level

Upon June 2011, they'll have the releasing of the DFI funds which I believe is amounted at over 50B USD

However, upon the release of the DFI, may go towards paying off foreign debt.

Not entirely sure how much debt they've accrued, but, maybe where they fall short is where the benefits of a RV take place?

Ok, I am a Newbie for sure. Thanks for all you're thoughts and research. This is very interesting