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Why you may see a 3 dollar RV


tjmunson
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The author of that blog is a friend of mine, and I can assure you that he doesn't believe there will be a $3 or even a $2 RV. He might be a bit more diplomatic about how he states things, but his views aren't so different from keepm's.

I'm going to make my prediction now. I predict that this thread won't go 13 pages! :lol:

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The author of that blog is a friend of mine, and I can assure you that he doesn't believe there will be a $3 or even a $2 RV. He might be a bit more diplomatic about how he states things, but his views aren't so different from keepm's.

I'm going to make my prediction now. I predict that this thread won't go 13 pages! :lol:

Nice to see you being objective.Another opinion other than your boy and you pooh on it,I guess thats what you and your gang mean by keppin it real.It won't go 13 pages cause the drama will be less.JMO.................................................................................GO RV 2011 BABY!!!!!

Edited by caz1104
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The author of that blog is a friend of mine, and I can assure you that he doesn't believe there will be a $3 or even a $2 RV. He might be a bit more diplomatic about how he states things, but his views aren't so different from keepm's.

I'm going to make my prediction now. I predict that this thread won't go 13 pages! laugh.gif

+ 1 for keeping it FUN biggrin.gifbiggrin.gifbiggrin.gif

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Hmm, well I am up for the challenge of making this blog have more replies than its counter log. Hope others are too! Let's cheer for a high RV!

I personally speculate that the oil reserves will be enough the help drive the RV rate up as high as $5 or more! Iraq is aiming to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world and I am sure this will happen. They will have a RV rate higher than Kuwait!

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I have been part of DV for a few years now and have watched the various chats and discussions evolve. Some people become very emotional regarding one opinion which is based in 'fact' verses another opinion which is also based in 'fact'. Some discussions become heated to the point that they cannot understand how foolish the other parties could be not to agree to their point. While some people have better undertanding of economics and of policy than another the bottom line is that NO ONE knows the rate. There is as much a possibility this could come out at .10 as it can $10. All we can really do is sit and speculate and give courtesy to other's opinions who are as valid as our own.

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tjmunson I owe you an apology. I like keepm and I felt that your post was a shot at him and I overreacted. You make some valid points and that's what the forum is for, to hear all views. My bad.

Scooby Doo, this is why I like you. Not ashamed to admit you where a little harsh. I have had to retract a few statements I have made a few times. Always enjoy your posts, they usually have a lot of intelligence and very little emotion. Keep up the good work!

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Thanks TJ - that is an awesome post. I tend to agree with your friend, that keep's posts have a more negative side to them and it is nice to have a positive take on the whoe rate debate I'm more inclined to believe in a $3 RV - but then again, I still believe in Santa Claus lol .

tjmunson I owe you an apology. I like keepm and I felt that your post was a shot at him and I overreacted. You make some valid points and that's what the forum is for, to hear all views. My bad.

Scooby Doo - kudos for standing up and righting your wrong. We don't see enough of that in today's society.

Too bad we haven't seen any of that from some of the so-called gurus that seem to be always wrong.

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I do not post very often but I thought I would throw my opnion in on this. I think there is some confusion as to the amount of currency in circulation, I encourage to research the intial exchange (SADDAM DINAR to NEW DINAR) and see what was involved in that process. It took 22 boeing jets and quite a long time for them to print the orginal amount. To have the amount in circulation that you are claiming they would have to had the printers running non-stop and jets arriving constantly. I think the confusion comes from people mis-understanding the defintinions of M1, M2, and ect.....this link is a good place for that info

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Money_supply

I am not trying to say that it will be a $3.00 revaluation, I am just saying that it is really impossible to guess or predict at this point. Iraq's true financial's have not been published and I am sure they will not be anytime soon! If you look at the definitions of M0, M1, ect you will see that the 27 trillion number that is being thrown around is not accurate!

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Good points made on many responses. That is what this forum is all about. I like to see both sides of the coin then I can make up my mind by interpreting all the facts. I am a positive person ,I am looking at a decent return $1+.

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Hmm, well I am up for the challenge of making this blog have more replies than its counter log. Hope others are too! Let's cheer for a high RV!

I personally speculate that the oil reserves will be enough the help drive the RV rate up as high as $5 or more! Iraq is aiming to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world and I am sure this will happen. They will have a RV rate higher than Kuwait!

Amen sister! This is my thinking as well.

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Great post tj, no matter what the dinar RVs at this is a positive post and a much more encouraging read! :)

Scooby Doo good to see an honest apology, speaks well for your character, seeing others bash back and forth is sad, thanks for being a gentleman ;)

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UPDATING

Reposting my comment posted 09 December 2010 and also later on

1. “Regarding the RV value

Here is my temporary estimate:

Calculation: Iraq’s total assets : the total number of dinars printed = $X/IQD.

Based on Wikipedia informations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq), one listing the oil assets equal to 180 bbl, another 143,1 bbl and total amount of dinars printed = 25 trillion (http://theiraqidinar.com/tag/revalue/), we get the following calculations (Iraq’s total assets I don’t know).

a. (180 bbl x $75) : 25 trillion IQD = $0.54/IQD

b (143,1 bbl x $75) : 25 trillion IQD = $ 0.43/IQD

Conclusion: 1 IQD = $0.43-$0.54, when not considering the rest of Iraq’s assets and ignoring eventual higher oil prices (today 1 bbl = ca. $97).

Unknown factor: How much of the 25 trillion IQD is in circulation.

Political agenda: Iraq, as well as USA and another countries, holding lots of IQD themselves, ref. Bush, quote: “The war will pay for itself”, will most likely not accept a price of IQD being less valued than 1 IQD = 1 USD compared to their neighboring countries. To achieve that, the sufficient amount needed will be stored uncirculated in the Iraqi vaults, serving as a replacement or currency regulating asset.”

2. Ref: Scooter’s brilliant “Trifecta theory, part 5”, quote: “Iraq could have the largest oil reserves in the world (The Sunday Times). The Iraqi Deputy Minister told The Times that new exploration showed that his country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with as much as 350 billion barrels.”

Thus concluding my previous calculations, the new estimate is, still neglecting other Iraqi assets and any higher oil prices than 1 bbl = $75.

(350 bbl x $75) : 25 trillion IQD = $1.05/IQD

Hopefully we will see this being realized in the coming days/weeks.

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The author of that blog is a friend of mine, and I can assure you that he doesn't believe there will be a $3 or even a $2 RV. He might be a bit more diplomatic about how he states things, but his views aren't so different from keepm's.

I'm going to make my prediction now. I predict that this thread won't go 13 pages! :lol:

How in the world did you get a -13 for this post..

People amaze me.

I assure you everyone on this site with a brain agrees with you

The rest will continue to follow okie

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Wow....didn't realize it was a contest. That comment speaks volumes as to your perspective on things. My guess is your parents pressured you into becoming quite the over achiever. I'm sorry for your pain.

As far as your friends blog. His opinion is taken with as much a grain of salt as keeps, yours, mine and every other soul involved in this craziness. My point is simply that the more one claims to know, the less they probably do know. No one has all the facts and figures. Every piece of "intel" is purely guesstimates and personal opinion. Nothing more.

As such, I prefer to see the positive side of things. I like to see the glass half full. I like to think that a RV of 1.00 or more is a possibility and I take offense to people who for some reason feel the need to belittle those of us who do focus on the positive. Keep and others come from a very negative perspective. They use words like "realistic" and "logical" however his numbers and hypothesis are neither realistic nor logical. They are simply his opinion because NO ONE has the accurate numbers. No one knows what the authors of the plan have done in the last few years , month or weeks.

When I first read his post, I sent a copy of it to a person I will not name. He is an investor in dinar and is the person who got me involved. I very much value his opinion because he is well read and educated in this investment and has many sources who keep him up to date in what is happening regarding Iraq. This was his response....

1- he reports 27T in circulation. Shabibi is on record as saying he has successfully pulled in about 85% of the notes with 3 zero's. This was back in May of 2010 i believe. So, they have pulled in more. The bulk of the currency is sitting in major countries vaults (I.E. US, Britain, France, etc) and they have agreements to NOT cash in right away and also to use those notes to back up and reinforce their own currencies as well as use them for oil purchases. So, Iraq will not need to have dollars to equal the cash in for $27T dinar. That is a fallacy.

2- this is clearly his opinion. These are NOT facts. He is emotional and assertive and is calling people names but this is his opinon.

3- How does he negate the IRAQ MOF paper that shows in 2009 they can handle $1.13?

4- How does he negate the UN/ IMF paper from 2003 that shows parts of the plan including RI'ing it back to $3.22. That the Iraqi people saw a drop in currency value by 600,000%. Why wouldnt there be a plan to equally restore it?

5- He is acting and speaking like he has all the facts. No one: Frank, Doc, Steve, etc etc etc have all the facts. This spider web is too far reaching. He is speaking out of fear. He has been taught through life that if it is too good to be true then it is. Well guess what- the too good to be true stuff never happens to him. Because he makes choices that are ante it.

6- If he is this passionate about it why is he wasting his time writing a book to try to negate it and others excitement? Why not just take his couple of hundred thousand dinar and stick it in a shoebox and move on with life. He can get an email from the exchange change announcement from someone Im sure. He doesnt need to waste his time on these sites. No, he is just arguing and trying to persuade folks to his way s of thinking. problem is he is limited. He doesnt have all the facts. Why should I even listen to him??!!

7- He is discounting the very notion that there was a plan put in place from the beginning. Why would we bring in General Hugh Taft or whatever his name is to handle the currency development & changeover in 2003? Why would we pay for the new currency? Why would we make the currency impossible to counterfeit. Why would we devalue it so so so so low? Why would we have a presidential order allowing (begging) our citizens to purchase the currency? Why? Why? Why? I can keep going but my point is there was and is a plan. This wasnt some fly by night operation where all of a sudden the strongest and most powerful nation the earth has ever seen woke up one day and said ...crap, we need to fight this Saddam guy...and then just rush into it. No, they have resources at their disposal. They used those rersources. They made a plan. They asked all the questions and thought of all the possibilities. America and those that own her debt (The Fed reserve) are not stupid nor short sided. There is an agenda at work...always. There is a plan in play...always.

8- He calls hiself negative in the last paragraph. Its how he sees the world. i agree with him- he is negative and it has stained his own reality. Now, it is possible that the RV rate can be low- say 1 penny or 10 cents or 30 cents. Very possible. But, Shabibi himself said that the value of the dinar needs to be more than the dollar and euro so the people will use it and drop the USD from being used. The USD is still the primary currency being used. They are Iraqi's with their own currency! We dont use the indian rupee or another currency. We use the USD here. They want the same thing there. in order to get the population to use it it needs to have some kind of value. This is why my personal belief is they will rv it higher than the dollar.

9- He is not taking into account the ability for modern day economists and finance people to have finacial instruments at their disposal that didnt exist. today they can monetize the oil in the ground before it is is accessed and sold. That is a value barometer. They currently have over 250 billion barrels at their disposal times $100 barrel well you get the picture. Add to it the other metals, mercury, agriculture, gold, sulpher, natural gas, tourism and a capitalist society and you can see they can be something special.

10- Japan was a fascist nation (closed society) who was decimated by nuclear war. They rose within a generation to be the 2nd largest economy on EARTH via a democratic and capitalist society. Their currency was changed. Iraq will follow a similar path- the difference is Japan had no resources in comparison to iraq.

I can keep going. Bottom line to me is he is shortsided, negative, and emotional. He acts like HE has all the facts and no one else does. Bottom line is that is ignorant. Shabibi and the folks who made this plan, etc are the ones with the facts and variables at his disposal. These people are some of the smartest in the world at what they do- finance, economies, etc. The authors of the plan are smart. This guy has an opinion and he is entitled to it. but to me its shortsided. Anyone who comes off like they know it all and have all the facts and all the variables covered and are just adament in this is what it is and will be....well, they are ignorant and not worthy of listening to and quite frankly a response. Come to think of it, not sure why you would even waste your time.So, bottom line, we'll know what's gonna happen when it happens and not a second before. To all those who want to see the potential positive side to this investment, I applaud you. Life is for dreaming so lets dream big. For those of you who are trapped in a world of negative karma, I wish the best in life because I know it can not be easy.

Peace to you all!

WAY To Go South Park, +1

Edited by Short Circuit
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Great post TJ and Mr. Rich as well. I base what I'm about to say on neither fact nor information collected, just on my own beliefs. I believe in all my heart that this investment will RV over $3.00 WHY you ask? Several reasons. I have served in the ME and I to a degree know their mentality. Power, Ego, Self Pride and perception are huge factors in the ME country's, For another reason Iraq will be inline with it's neighbors and the surrounding country's economies that you can be sure of. When we talk about wealth with Iraq we think of OIL and what they have in the ground as reserves and what is being pumped daily, most people do not even know that Iraq has a huge amount in wealth with GOLD and Silver from antiquities and the former regime, I'm not speaking of a few bars of GOLD here I'm talking about BUILDINGS full of GOLD. Iraq in my opinion can easily cover what currency is out in the open market PLUS SOME. Do not worry about that they are as we all say "All Set" I think what we mostly squabble about or get into arguments in here about is the GOI, PUMPERS, GURUS, RATES and DATES. None of which we can answer or speculate on as they do things on their own time and on their own schedule and as their time allows, you can throw conventional thinking out the damn window when it comes to the ME and you can forget about western policies, procedures, deadlines and any other form of time we associate with in getting business done. Although much easier said than done we all need to step back and take a deep breath over our collective keyboards and ask what is really most important to me about this whole Dinar thing? In the mean time enjoy the ride or the show whichever you prefer as it will continue to play out until it is done and over with. JMO. Peace.

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Now this is more like it....

extending on the previous post....

Thus concluding my previous calculations, the new estimate is, still neglecting other Iraqi assets and any higher oil prices than 1 bbl = $75.

(350 bbl x $75) : 25 trillion IQD = $1.05/IQD

With Oil now over $100 a barrel.

(350 bbl x $100) : 25 trillion IQD = $1.40/IQD

Hopefully we will see this being realized in the coming days/weeks.

This would be a conservative estimate in that it is based on the estimated oil (Likely much more yet to be discovered) Plus all their other natural resources plus the total IQD outstanding could very well be less.....it is in Iraqs best interest to pull in the large denoms. As they plan to revalue their currency, they know they need to pull in large denoms. To think that they pulled in none of the large denoms is frankly idiotic.

So even if Iraq was terribly unsuccessful at pulling IQD out of circulation and was only able to pull in 25% the calculations are:

(350 bbl x $100) : (25x.75)= 18.75 trillion IQD = $1.87/IQD

So now our range is $1.40 to $1.87

We could play this game all day long but I think it is clear that it is not unthinkable that a $1 + RV is possible and in fact plausible.

Just my opinion and some mathematics.

You get a very interesting number if you do this math assuming 80% of the large denoms have been brought in by Iraq.

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