Follow up to no rv until unrest settles

[nir]

Hello,

So about two weeks ago I posted this topic and got bashed left and right and as we see I was right and I also saw another post on here that said the same thing and he also got bashed and negetive responses. So for all the people who live in LA LA land and only like positive news there won't be an RV anytime soon because of the unrest especially now with what happened in Iraq. What we are seeing now in the ME it is historic and that is something that some people here think has nothing to do with the RV but you guys are wrong. The ME is not a logical place and I have read many posts on here trying to rationlize the events and why the rv has to take place and why it is not taking place. As a middle eastern I can say one thing all these logical thinking and opinions of yours is fine and dandy but you can't use logic for a part of the world where logic does not play a role and events are unpredictable. It is difficult to explain but the ME is very complex and people must realize that there are many issues facing this RV and some are not logical! Now I can say one thing RV will happen but not anytime soon. I have said this before and will repeat Iran is a major player in the RV decesion and Iran is also experiancing unrest so until the unrest is settled NO RV!! Bash away but this is the truth. Be well and stay real.

[steveo]

well u seem pretty sure of yourself....but hey everyone has their own opinion,i bought what i can afford to lose,if it rvs its a huge bonus if it doesent life goes on simple as that.......have a good weekend everyone

[roux]

Thanks, Nir.

[muchodinaro]

Hey genius, the RV will only happen once, and that is the only time the "positive" investors can be right. Only once! You negative people can bash, and say it's not going to happen, as often as you want to, and then brag as if you know something. You don't! I've got a question, why are you still posting on this site? Get out your crystal ball, and tell us oh wise one what month, what day, and what year, and then leave this site until that time. Congratulations on your fame!

[coldwarvet]

The common element cited by all the posters who predict "RV, but not anytime soon" is their assertion that it won't happen until the ME settles down. nir is certainly right that the ME is an unpredictable place. However, what most of them, including nir, miss is that the ME WON'T settle down until the people there, including the Iraqis, have a clear vision of a decent standard of living. That means they have the earning power to provide for life's necessities, such as food, electricity, etc. and the GOI has the financial wherewithal to make that a reality. For all that to happen, Iraq has to have a currency with tangible value. Please explain to me how stability will occur in Iraq when it takes boxes full of essentially worthless currency to survive. Are we truly to believe that all 24 million+ Iraqis will suddenly wake up one day and make nice under those circumstances? I think, sir, you have it backwards: no RV, no stability.

[markb57]

No RV until unrest settles...til this ...til that...til the cows come home.....this is getting a bit long in the tooth

Exactly. Agree 100%. Back in 2010, the US and the UN, along with the Iraq should have set this government up for them. 60-90 days, done.

No RV until unrest settles...til this ...til that...til the cows come home.....this is getting a bit long in the tooth

Exactly. Agree 100%. Back in 2010, the US and the UN, along with the Iraq should have set this government up for them. 60-90 days, done.

[renros]

There has ALWAYS been unrest in the Middle East and always will be so if you are correct about unrest having to end first then you are incorrect about it "happening". But not anytime soon.

[sweet B]

thanks for the post

[MrRich]

Nir, I appreciate both of your posts on this topic. You're right about people not wanting to hear the truth. So far you and AC and Dr. J. have all been bashed but are as accurate with your analysis as anybody. I keep telling people to stay grounded and not to buy into the hype. I hope you keep posting and ignore the bashers.

[deenar]

Nir, I appreciate both of your posts on this topic. You're right about people not wanting to hear the truth. So far you and AC and Dr. J. have all been bashed but are as accurate with your analysis as anybody. I keep telling people to stay grounded and not to buy into the hype. I hope you keep posting and ignore the bashers.

Saying it won't happen anytime soon is just as wrongheaded as saying it will happen every monday or friday. Nobody freakin' knows!!! One can make arguments either way. As far as feeble minded people who believe in bs RV intel, all I can say is SELL YOUR IQD IF YOU FEEL YOU WERE PUMPED!!!! IF YOU ARE MAD ABOUT THIS INVESTMENT, GET OUT AND GO AWAY!!!! I still can't figure out why so many pissed off IQD investors think that others feel sorry for them because they feel they got pumped. Sack up *******. You are either down for the long haul or you are not. Yes, I know I will get many, many negs, but I don't care!! Grow the hell up. There is no such thing as a sure thing.

[frankc]

nir,

If you are under the dilusion that it is Iraq's decision to Rv you are mistaken. It was NOT their decision to devalue and it is NOT their decision for a revalue.

This was planned by higher powers(USA, IMF, World Bank, BIS, UN) and Iraq must execute it. When it will happen is anybody's guess.

[deenar]

nir,

If you are under the dilusion that it is Iraq's decision to Rv you are mistaken. It was NOT their decision to devalue and it is NOT their decision for a revalue.

This was planned by higher powers(USA, IMF, World Bank, BIS, UN) and Iraq must execute it. When it will happen is anybody's guess.

Here here!!

[LettheRVbegin]

Nir, I appreciate both of your posts on this topic. You're right about people not wanting to hear the truth. So far you and AC and Dr. J. have all been bashed but are as accurate with your analysis as anybody. I keep telling people to stay grounded and not to buy into the hype. I hope you keep posting and ignore the bashers.

Nir must have paid you. Your statement is worthless just as much as his. Maybe you should change your name to "mrnir"

[andy3978]

Problem is it will be hard to get people in the ME to settle down if they are living in squaller while looking into the Green Zone and seeing the politicians fat and happy driving a Benz.

How 'settled' would you be when your money can't buy you a loaf of bread. Oh wait...where do you GET your money when there is no economy and no jobs? Ration Card, which allows people to EXIST ......not LIVE.

I challenge ANYONE to point to a time in the last 3000 years when there had been peace and tranquility in the ME. It does not exist and will not exist. So by saying there will be no RV until such time means there will never be an RV at all.

Why has the Egyptian Pound or the Libyan Dinar not tanked yet (keep an eye on them everyone) ? Egypt was pretty violent, and we all see how things are turning out in Libya. Their currency should crash, but it hasn't.

And of course the Israeli Shekel is solid, no matter how many times a neighbor swears to wipe them off the map etc etc. Yea Israel is a democracy, so what? So is Iraq. And if a democracy is the difference between a stable and valuable currency, how do NON-democratic countries (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) maintain their currency values?

[In Iraq]

Saying it won't happen anytime soon is just as wrongheaded as saying it will happen every monday or friday. Nobody freakin' knows!!! One can make arguments either way. As far as feeble minded people who believe in bs RV intel, all I can say is SELL YOUR IQD IF YOU FEEL YOU WERE PUMPED!!!! IF YOU ARE MAD ABOUT THIS INVESTMENT, GET OUT AND GO AWAY!!!! I still can't figure out why so many pissed off IQD investors think that others feel sorry for them because they feel they got pumped. Sack up *******. You are either down for the long haul or you are not. Yes, I know I will get many, many negs, but I don't care!! Grow the hell up. There is no such thing as a sure thing.

Death and taxes are a sure thing!

[MrRich]

Problem is it will be hard to get people in the ME to settle down if they are living in squaller while looking into the Green Zone and seeing the politicians fat and happy driving a Benz.

How 'settled' would you be when your money can't buy you a loaf of bread. Oh wait...where do you GET your money when there is no economy and no jobs? Ration Card, which allows people to EXIST ......not LIVE.

I challenge ANYONE to point to a time in the last 3000 years when there had been peace and tranquility in the ME. It does not exist and will not exist. So by saying there will be no RV until such time means there will never be an RV at all.

Why has the Egyptian Pound or the Libyan Dinar not tanked yet (keep an eye on them everyone) ? Egypt was pretty violent, and we all see how things are turning out in Libya. Their currency should crash, but it hasn't.

And of course the Israeli Shekel is solid, no matter how many times a neighbor swears to wipe them off the map etc etc. Yea Israel is a democracy, so what? So is Iraq. And if a democracy is the difference between a stable and valuable currency, how do NON-democratic countries (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) maintain their currency values?

Come on andy. That's a straw man argument. Nir didn't say there had to be peace and tranquility, but that we will have to wait for the current wave of demonstrations and revolutions to settle down, which is no different from what Adam Montana said recently. It's disingenuous to suggest that the situation now is no different from a month or two ago. And comparing Israel and Iraq is comparing apples and oranges. Israel is an established country with the same form of government for 60 years, despite the constant threat of war or violence. Iraq is a fledgling democracy emerging from decades of war and tyranny.

[andy3978]

Come on andy. That's a straw man argument. Nir didn't say there had to be peace and tranquility, but that we will have to wait for the current wave of demonstrations and revolutions to settle down, which is no different from what Adam Montana said recently. It's disingenuous to suggest that the situation now is no different from a month or two ago. And comparing Israel and Iraq is comparing apples and oranges. Israel is an established country with the same form of government for 60 years, despite the constant threat of war or violence. Iraq is a fledgling democracy emerging from decades of war and tyranny.

Well maybe it's time to define 'unrest'. It is completely ignorant to say that the ME is a 'peaceful' region. So what's the criteria then? having a country with a Dictator brutal to his people? By this argument one can infer that under Saddam's regime the Dinar would be more valuable than now because there were no protesters in the streets. So is it fair to assume that regardless of how brutal and shady a dictator may be, as long as there's no people protesting in the street their currency can be stable? Come on man

As far as Adam is concerned, a few weeks ago he said no RV imminent due to Egypt's turmoil. A week later he said how the unrest is helping to facilitate the RV and that we're on the Home Stretch. Now we're back again to 'no RV until things settle'?

Maybe you can help make sense of the straw man's argument by explaining how the Egyptian Pound and the Libyan Dinar have not collapsed yet. I'd say things there are a bit more unstable than in Iraq, wouldn't you?

Regarding Israel, in 1973's Yom Kippur war, Israel was attacked by Egypt, Syria, Iraq, & Jordan and in the initial days was almost beaten. Thats some pretty serious instability...maybe even more threatening that people rallying outside a government building. If not for Golda Maier's 11th hour call to Nixon, Israel might very well have lost. Still though their currency didn't collapse. At that time Israel's government was 25 years old and already had 3 Arab-Israeli wars. Somehow they (and their currency) persevered through hostile neighbors backed by the Soviets and 3 outright wars.

One can draw the conclusion based on the events in Iraq and the surrounding area, that the GOI is in fact not the ones to call the RV shots and perhaps it is outside forces (US, IMF, UN, WTO, etc) who might just be the ones that do.

Still though, I always enjoy reading your perspectives Mr.Rich. You always have a great handle on things

[nir]

So I am going to dish some more info about me. I am from Israel and I was born in Iran and I have some friends that know a thing or two in the israeli army. That is all I can say. If you want to really know when the RV will take place follow Iran and the actions and influence they are having in the Arab world especially Iraq. To all the Military personell here that served in Iraq you all know what I am talking about and you all know that Iran is behined all the demonstrations in Iraq and Bahrin. Most recently the subotage in the major oil refinary. Iran also plays a major role in other countries, but watch what is going on there it is a chesse game going on here between Iran/Russia and the Western world. I mentioned Russia because they are a silent player and they have a lot of say on what is going on in the middle east and if anyone knows a little bit of history they know that Russia was and is to this day a major ally to most Arab countries and they still have tremendous influence over events in the ME. So far Iran and Russia are wining this Chess game while the USA is sitting Ideally doing nothing and I attribute it to the current weak administration. This is my opinion and take it for what it is. Be well and stay real!

[andy3978]

Nir, great post and you are spot on about Iran and Russia's influence. I said from day 1 that all the 'insurgency' was facilitated by Iran. The Soviets have always had influence over the ME. In fact most of if not all of the Arab-Israeli wars from the 50's through the 80's were nothing more than proxy wars between the US and USSR. I believe it was Nassir in 73 (dont quote the year) who said 'The more we fight Israel, the more I know we are fighting the US'.

As I'm sure you figured I too have Israeli insights with military experience...more so than the standard required service at 18 yrs. old.

If I may I'd like to introduce a theory. It is pretty obvious that the US will never directly take on Iran in a military engagement. Mostly due to our current administration (or lack thereof). However there might be another way to fight them. Considering the young Iranians did step up once, Obama missed his window of opportunity to support the dissent. With all the other ME players having their own similar troubles, it might be in our best interest to fight Iran UN-conventionally. I whole-heartedly believe Israel will help out as it is clearly in their best interest.

What I mean is by supporting the Iranian's seeking democracy, similarly to the Berlin Airlifts. support with organization, logistics, finances and whatever else; with the attempt for the youth of Iran to topple the regime themselves. As part of that strategy, stabilizing Iraq and helping their economy thrive, it will serve as a beacon to other aspiring democracies in the region. 'Hell if Ira can do it, so can we'--type thinking.

Iran is the head of the snake, and the head much be removed and all the cards will fall into place.

Just my thoughts

[nir]

Nir, great post and you are spot on about Iran and Russia's influence. I said from day 1 that all the 'insurgency' was facilitated by Iran. The Soviets have always had influence over the ME. In fact most of if not all of the Arab-Israeli wars from the 50's through the 80's were nothing more than proxy wars between the US and USSR. I believe it was Nassir in 73 (dont quote the year) who said 'The more we fight Israel, the more I know we are fighting the US'.

As I'm sure you figured I too have Israeli insights with military experience...more so than the standard required service at 18 yrs. old.

If I may I'd like to introduce a theory. It is pretty obvious that the US will never directly take on Iran in a military engagement. Mostly due to our current administration (or lack thereof). However there might be another way to fight them. Considering the young Iranians did step up once, Obama missed his window of opportunity to support the dissent. With all the other ME players having their own similar troubles, it might be in our best interest to fight Iran UN-conventionally. I whole-heartedly believe Israel will help out as it is clearly in their best interest.

What I mean is by supporting the Iranian's seeking democracy, similarly to the Berlin Airlifts. support with organization, logistics, finances and whatever else; with the attempt for the youth of Iran to topple the regime themselves. As part of that strategy, stabilizing Iraq and helping their economy thrive, it will serve as a beacon to other aspiring democracies in the region. 'Hell if Ira can do it, so can we'--type thinking.

Iran is the head of the snake, and the head much be removed and all the cards will fall into place.

Just my thoughts

All I have to say that I agree Obama missed the Boat now it would be much harder. I would also like to add that Iran gov't can only be toppled if the people get armed and the reason is because the Bastige are not Iranians they are Arabs and missionaries from other countries just like we see in Lybia today. Toppeling the Iranian gov't would be much harder. I also want to make another comment about Egypt what we saw there was all one big BS because nothing changed as you all know I hope you do Mubarak was a militry general and he was a militry man and the militry there liked him! The military there removed him to appease the people but nothing really changed there actually things are going to get worse as we will see what is happening in Egypt is exactly what happened to Iran in 1979 it is a play by play. Fanatics will take over and things are going to get worse for Egyptians! Be well and stay real.

[andy3978]

I think Egyptians are going to find out in short order that things under Mubarak were not as bad as they thought.

[Jim1cor13]

So I am going to dish some more info about me. I am from Israel and I was born in Iran and I have some friends that know a thing or two in the israeli army. That is all I can say. If you want to really know when the RV will take place follow Iran and the actions and influence they are having in the Arab world especially Iraq. To all the Military personell here that served in Iraq you all know what I am talking about and you all know that Iran is behined all the demonstrations in Iraq and Bahrin. Most recently the subotage in the major oil refinary. Iran also plays a major role in other countries, but watch what is going on there it is a chesse game going on here between Iran/Russia and the Western world. I mentioned Russia because they are a silent player and they have a lot of say on what is going on in the middle east and if anyone knows a little bit of history they know that Russia was and is to this day a major ally to most Arab countries and they still have tremendous influence over events in the ME. So far Iran and Russia are wining this Chess game while the USA is sitting Ideally doing nothing and I attribute it to the current weak administration. This is my opinion and take it for what it is. Be well and stay real!

Thank you very much nir for your thoughts.

When I see you post, I read with interest because

I know where you are from, and that you actually

understand how things work in middle eastern

affairs.

I respect your thoughts, and please do not take offense

at the critical comments from a few. Some only feel alive when

they are making someone else out to be "less" than them. Pay no attention

to it. State what you know out of experience, and this you have been consistent

in doing and I for one thank you for it. It is certainly refreshing to actually hear from

someone like yourself who originally comes from the middle east and has some

real understanding of these details.

You are appreciated nir, please continue to share your thoughts. They have been

1000 times more valuable than most of the 'guru" clan that knows nothing, but they are good

at helping their dealer friends AND at manipulating peoples emotions. Then when someone

like yourself comes on and states details from experience and knowledge, the reality of it

is too much for some to handle, and it is never what they *want* to hear.

Thank you for keeping it honest and real. For those of you who continue to believe that anyone

other than the GOI is going to somehow "make this happen"...or better yet, "force this to happen",

you are still mistaken. For the third time, I will post this information from the New York federal treasury

so we can stay with the facts.

Currency Devaluation and Revaluation

A few points from the article to pay attention to:

Under a fixed exchange rate system, devaluation and revaluation are official changes in the value of a country's currency

relative to other currencies. Under a floating exchange rate system, market forces generate changes in the value of the currency,

known as currency depreciation or appreciation.

In a fixed exchange rate system, both devaluation and revaluation can be conducted by policymakers, usually motivated by market pressures.

***Under a fixed exchange rate system, only a decision by a country's government or monetary authority can alter the official value of the currency.

Governments do, occasionally, take such measures, often in response to unusual market pressures. Devaluation, the deliberate downward adjustment

in the official exchange rate, reduces the currency's value; in contrast, a revaluation is an upward change in the currency's value.

Thank you again nir for your consistent information.

All my best!

Jim

---

Edited February 26, 2011 by Jim1cor13

[Carrello]

Hey genius, the RV will only happen once, and that is the only time the "positive" investors can be right. Only once! You negative people can bash, and say it's not going to happen, as often as you want to, and then brag as if you know something. You don't! I've got a question, why are you still posting on this site? Get out your crystal ball, and tell us oh wise one what month, what day, and what year, and then leave this site until that time. Congratulations on your fame!

Well, I see we have one genius, we obviously are missing a brain surgeon.........

[mzmichele]

Andy & Nir?,

Thank you for agreeing to disagree! I love to see MATURE ADULTS that can again, agree to disagree. Very well said on both your parts:)