RV THIS WEEK OR NEVER?

[MovieMaker]

WOW what a fantastic thread, lots of views. Thanks for the posts and responses. Great reads all around!

[Moe485]

Its good to see people giving there positive opinions together and not bashing each other. This post has some great views and points. I agree this will be a very exciting week indeed. And as Mr Rich Said, if it doesn't happen this week don't worry have faith.

[Legolas]

Good to see you posting again Legolas. I always enjoy reading what you have to say. I agree with you that no RV is necessary for the IQD to be internationally tradable. But they do need a stronger currency for investment in their country and greater purchasing power to rebuild Iraq and develop other industries for exports. Also, they have expressed a desire to dedollarize Iraq which would require a value of at least $1. I hope we see the RV this week, but I don't feel that all is lost if it doesn't happen. There are so many forces involved in this that want it to happen I feel that it's just a matter of time. It may be that they're waiting for more stability, although I don't know if that stability can come without an RV.

I've always believed that it would be in their best interest (financially and even psychologically) to come out at or very near the U.S. Dollar. We were told unequivocally that they were de-dollarizing back in October of 2009, but once again, the rumors were wrong. The fact that their major product (oil) is traded in dollars rather than dinars tends to support both arguments - that the dinar should be equivalent, and also that there is no urgent need. Obviously all of the arguments put forth to date have been in error.

Personally, I strongly believe that stability, more than anything else will determine their economic progress, yet they have proven time and again that this is not their priority . The events of the past few weeks lead me to believe that "destabilization" appears more likely in the near term. They took WAY too long (more than 13 months now) to complete what should have been a relatively simple election process, and they are about to pay a price for their foolishness The people were incredibly patient, but I believe that recent events in surrounding countries have opened the door for further dissension and change. FEAR of the once all-powerful autocratic/theocratic governments seems to be dissipating, and unfortunately, there appears to be a lack of strong leadership to guide these impressive new revolutions. The majority may crave democracy, but achieving it in an environment surrounded by iron age theocracy and generations of indefensible religious dogma may be improbable at best. The end result in the region is anything but sure.

My own opinion was that Allawi presented the best hope of moving the country in the right direction. He won the long-sought democratic election, (albeit by a very small margin) and I fear that we may have erred in failing to force Iraq to honor that first major democratic achievement. Maliki has repeatedly demonstrated that he is the wrong choice for economic, political and social progress in Iraq. We're about to find out whether he can pull the proverbial rabbit (or camel) out of a hat to avoid catastrophe. My confidence in his ability is limited at best. I remain convinced that IF the RV is a potential reality, THIS would be the logical time to play that card. It wouldn't solve any of their major problems, but it "might" give them the time they need to finally get their act together in terms of giving the people hope for positive change. I think people are underestimating the power and outcomes of these demonstrations and revolts.

[haymon]

I'am totally impressed with those that have been at this for more than a year!! My head spins every time I flip off my screen. It's a great learning tool to level off ones emotions.

[jaminjimmy90]

so when the RV does not occur this week everyone above that agrees should go sell their dinar. IMO it is not now or never. Yes there will be protests on Friday, but that does not mean they are going to march into the green zone and pull Maliki out by his thumbs and hang him. Protests don't always mean flipping cars and lighting buildings on fire. I would agree that terrorists may use the protests as the perfect scenario to ignite bombs and other acts of terror.

well in iraq it does lol but i agree this could be just what we all need to get this party started go rv now

[coldwarvet]

If there's any doubt about Maliki's true intentions, look at one of today's news posts, where he is quoted as saying that the constitution should be amended to give him more power, and that the country isn't ready for democratic rule yet.

[jcav]

Legolas no worries, IT IS IN THE MAKINGS RIGHT NOW. People do not let rumors, speculations and other peoples opinions sway you in your journey up to this point, IT IS HAPPENING NOW AS WE SPEAK! Relax, this is coming out nicely and has already been decided. I believe my 2 friends in IRAQ with all my heart. Much of this is Smoke and Mirrors to keep the media in the Blind. Hang in there it will happen very soon.

Thanks.

[Bull Dog]

I just finished reading several articles from Iraqi news agencies. The people don't seem to care about the RV. They live in dumps, in fields and elsewhere. Prior to 2003 according to one lady who is 86, we had plenty of food before the invasion and we do not now. The GOI is only concerned about lining their pockets and not taking care of the people. I don't believe that one demonstration is going to destroy the ecomony of the country. The people are tired of getting nothing with a country that is producing so much oil and natural gas to keep them all feed and employed for the rest of their lives. This country has been under thumb of dictors and fighting each other for thousands of years. That is all they have known up until now. Democracy in any form is still new to them. The people like their freedoms but want more and deserve more. With this talk about new housing projects and new oil fields being sought, you would think the GOI could put all these people to work? No, they are just stuck on themselves and now they are going to hear about it from the people on Friday. My hope is that this will be a good thing and I hope and pray that it's goes off well with no violence. The cities are putting this in place to ensure a peaceful demonstration. The people putting this on are looking for a peaceful event. Let's just hope the GOI opens their eyes the peoples needs and changes things for the people. If the RV does happen, my hope is that it will benefit the people of Iraq more than us. It's their country and they deserve better.

[Networth]

I disagree with you on both counts. I don't think it will RV this week but I also don't believe it will never RV. The dinar will revalue because Iraq will need a currency that can be internationally accepted and exchanged. However, I believe the RV is going to take shape differently than what many believe. Many have been led to believe the RV will be a sudden, overnight revaluation increasing by several times the value of the dinar relative to the US dollar. That will not happen. At some point, many oil and construction contracts will be priced in dinar. The dinar will simply start trading internationally. There will be no fanfare, no press conferences, no big announcements. There will be no significant change in value or the exchange rate when that happens. The dinar will then gradually gain or lose value based on it's GDP growth, political stability and inflation rate.

There is simply too much risk for Iraq (or any international gov't) to arbitrarily set an exchange rate based on "future" expectations. Nobody can accurately know the future productivity of the country. Just as nobody can know our future. We each can make a prediction based on our own biases and what we think and that's exactly what foreign exchange markets are for. But if the rate is set based by anyone rather than the market as a whole, it is guaranteed to be too high or too low. And both those scenarios present unecessary risks to Iraqis and to their gov't. The people that participate in the currency exchange markets, including gov't central banks, are very intelligent. They will not tolerate an arbitrarily manipulated currency. And they will not allow a currency to be artificially valued.

[LAWMAN]

I just finished reading several articles from Iraqi news agencies. The people don't seem to care about the RV. They live in dumps, in fields and elsewhere. Prior to 2003 according to one lady who is 86, we had plenty of food before the invasion and we do not now. The GOI is only concerned about lining their pockets and not taking care of the people. I don't believe that one demonstration is going to destroy the ecomony of the country. The people are tired of getting nothing with a country that is producing so much oil and natural gas to keep them all feed and employed for the rest of their lives. This country has been under thumb of dictors and fighting each other for thousands of years. That is all they have known up until now. Democracy in any form is still new to them. The people like their freedoms but want more and deserve more. With this talk about new housing projects and new oil fields being sought, you would think the GOI could put all these people to work? No, they are just stuck on themselves and now they are going to hear about it from the people on Friday. My hope is that this will be a good thing and I hope and pray that it's goes off well with no violence. The cities are putting this in place to ensure a peaceful demonstration. The people putting this on are looking for a peaceful event. Let's just hope the GOI opens their eyes the peoples needs and changes things for the people. If the RV does happen, my hope is that it will benefit the people of Iraq more than us. It's their country and they deserve better.

Very good observation of the REAL news, thank you

[Tom 777]

RV THIS WEEK OR NEVER?

I have to say that I never thought I would find myself agreeing with ANYTHING that came from the PD website. Mr. Rich was correct in his analysis today of the fact that their track record is soon to exceed the inaccuracies of OKIE and those of the GET team and a select few others. However, their so-called “CEO’s” made a statement today (to be found on DD) indicating that they believe that IF the RV is going to happen, it will be before the end of this week. Although I hate to respond to their posts, I felt that this statement was worthy of comment.

For many reasons, I would have to agree. IF the RV card ever in fact existed, it would seem that this is the ultimate time to play it. We’ve been told repeatedly that once the budget is passed and the government finally seated, the RV would follow immediately. Well, the budget has passed, and it is blatantly obvious that Maliki is fearful that his government may soon collapse. Only a fool would believe otherwise. Articles have indicated that he went to Kuwait this past week to secure the future safety of he and his family in the event that this week’s protests turn violent. A logical individual would think that if he were that concerned, seating of the last 3 ministers would have been a huge priority – at virtually any cost. A person in that position would have agreed to anything…….a minister could always be replaced at a later date. Yet these ministers weren’t appointed, and some sources indicate that Parliament may have adjourned for another week……hardly an indication of an imminent RV. We can only hope that this information is inaccurate.

Huge protests are planned for Friday, and although the intention of the organizers is clearly that they be peaceful, I fear that the end result will be anything but. It is very likely that religious fanatics and terrorist cells will infiltrate these events with the specific purpose of instigating and creating chaos and violence. If that occurs, and the situation in Iraq deteriorates, the stability reasonably required for something as critical and complex as a revaluation of Iraq’s currency will undoubtedly be a long time coming.

I for one am convinced that if our RV were in fact as close as we’ve been led to believe, they would have found a way to make it happen BEFORE the protest situation gets out of hand. They’ve watched these events unfolding in neighboring countries for several weeks now, and have had plenty of time to complete whatever details were necessary to announce the ever-elusive RV…….IF it is real. If ever there was a reason to believe that they are facing an emergency situation, this is it. If anything can save the government of Iraq and lead to progress and a stable democracy this would seem to be their best opportunity. Therefore, I would have to agree that we may very likely be looking at the probability of this week or never. The next few days should be very interesting, to say the least.

You are so full of it, I can't see how people think you know what if really coming out of your mouth.

[jericho]

Two words. Cautiously optimistic! Optimism seems to be an enemy of this investment. All signs point to good things for us soon, but this isn't the first time that's been true.

[Moses]

You are so full of it, I can't see how people think you know what if really coming out of your mouth.

Brilliant use of Nouns and Vowels! (If it was your intent to add absolutely nothing to this thread,.. other then a statement without supporting conjecture)

-1 till you can spend a few minutes and give us (bless us with) a little insight as to why you have typed what you typed.

[cardinal sin]

Brilliant use of Nouns and Vowels! (If it was your intent to add absolutely nothing to this thread,.. other then a statement without supporting conjecture)

-1 till you can spend a few minutes and give us (bless us with) a little insight as to why you have typed what you typed.

I'm with Moses, -1 from me, as well.

[Austin-Powers-for-PM]

You are so full of it, I can't see how people think you know what if really coming out of your mouth.

Sorry Tom 777, you get the Moron award for the week. No soup for you (-1).

[coleman619]

Sorry Tom 777, you get the Moron award for the week. No soup for you (-1).

Do some of you actually care if you get a -negative mark? Why?