RV THIS WEEK OR NEVER?

[Legolas]

RV THIS WEEK OR NEVER?

I have to say that I never thought I would find myself agreeing with ANYTHING that came from the PD website. Mr. Rich was correct in his analysis today of the fact that their track record is soon to exceed the inaccuracies of OKIE and those of the GET team and a select few others. However, their so-called “CEO’s” made a statement today (to be found on DD) indicating that they believe that IF the RV is going to happen, it will be before the end of this week. Although I hate to respond to their posts, I felt that this statement was worthy of comment.

For many reasons, I would have to agree. IF the RV card ever in fact existed, it would seem that this is the ultimate time to play it. We’ve been told repeatedly that once the budget is passed and the government finally seated, the RV would follow immediately. Well, the budget has passed, and it is blatantly obvious that Maliki is fearful that his government may soon collapse. Only a fool would believe otherwise. Articles have indicated that he went to Kuwait this past week to secure the future safety of he and his family in the event that this week’s protests turn violent. A logical individual would think that if he were that concerned, seating of the last 3 ministers would have been a huge priority – at virtually any cost. A person in that position would have agreed to anything…….a minister could always be replaced at a later date. Yet these ministers weren’t appointed, and some sources indicate that Parliament may have adjourned for another week……hardly an indication of an imminent RV. We can only hope that this information is inaccurate.

Huge protests are planned for Friday, and although the intention of the organizers is clearly that they be peaceful, I fear that the end result will be anything but. It is very likely that religious fanatics and terrorist cells will infiltrate these events with the specific purpose of instigating and creating chaos and violence. If that occurs, and the situation in Iraq deteriorates, the stability reasonably required for something as critical and complex as a revaluation of Iraq’s currency will undoubtedly be a long time coming.

I for one am convinced that if our RV were in fact as close as we’ve been led to believe, they would have found a way to make it happen BEFORE the protest situation gets out of hand. They’ve watched these events unfolding in neighboring countries for several weeks now, and have had plenty of time to complete whatever details were necessary to announce the ever-elusive RV…….IF it is real. If ever there was a reason to believe that they are facing an emergency situation, this is it. If anything can save the government of Iraq and lead to progress and a stable democracy this would seem to be their best opportunity. Therefore, I would have to agree that we may very likely be looking at the probability of this week or never. The next few days should be very interesting, to say the least.

[ThePeoplesChamp]

Thanks for your post. I have to agree with you.

[jaminjimmy90]

RV THIS WEEK OR NEVER?

I have to say that I never thought I would find myself agreeing with ANYTHING that came from the PD website. Mr. Rich was correct in his analysis today of the fact that their track record is soon to exceed the inaccuracies of OKIE and those of the GET team and a select few others. However, their so-called “CEO’s” made a statement today (to be found on DD) indicating that they believe that IF the RV is going to happen, it will be before the end of this week. Although I hate to respond to their posts, I felt that this statement was worthy of comment.

For many reasons, I would have to agree. IF the RV card ever in fact existed, it would seem that this is the ultimate time to play it. We’ve been told repeatedly that once the budget is passed and the government finally seated, the RV would follow immediately. Well, the budget has passed, and it is blatantly obvious that Maliki is fearful that his government may soon collapse. Only a fool would believe otherwise. Articles have indicated that he went to Kuwait this past week to secure the future safety of he and his family in the event that this week’s protests turn violent. A logical individual would think that if he were that concerned, seating of the last 3 ministers would have been a huge priority – at virtually any cost. A person in that position would have agreed to anything…….a minister could always be replaced at a later date. Yet these ministers weren’t appointed, and some sources indicate that Parliament may have adjourned for another week……hardly an indication of an imminent RV. We can only hope that this information is inaccurate.

Huge protests are planned for Friday, and although the intention of the organizers is clearly that they be peaceful, I fear that the end result will be anything but. It is very likely that religious fanatics and terrorist cells will infiltrate these events with the specific purpose of instigating and creating chaos and violence. If that occurs, and the situation in Iraq deteriorates, the stability reasonably required for something as critical and complex as a revaluation of Iraq’s currency will undoubtedly be a long time coming.

I for one am convinced that if our RV were in fact as close as we’ve been led to believe, they would have found a way to make it happen BEFORE the protest situation gets out of hand. They’ve watched these events unfolding in neighboring countries for several weeks now, and have had plenty of time to complete whatever details were necessary to announce the ever-elusive RV…….IF it is real. If ever there was a reason to believe that they are facing an emergency situation, this is it. If anything can save the government of Iraq and lead to progress and a stable democracy this would seem to be their best opportunity. Therefore, I would have to agree that we may very likely be looking at the probability of this week or never. The next few days should be very interesting, to say the least.

how does anyone know why he went to kuwait,did he tell you?

[jaykay]

i am hoping it is smoke and mirrors ..If its not you are right..Hell will break loose..

[learning all i can]

how does anyone know why he went to kuwait,did he tell you?

it has been in the new all day

[rdb]

this week or never!!!! so by thursday..............................................................................................

[chuckray]

GREAT POST---I TOTALLY AGREE---THANKS

[bigd1619]

so when the RV does not occur this week everyone above that agrees should go sell their dinar. IMO it is not now or never. Yes there will be protests on Friday, but that does not mean they are going to march into the green zone and pull Maliki out by his thumbs and hang him. Protests don't always mean flipping cars and lighting buildings on fire. I would agree that terrorists may use the protests as the perfect scenario to ignite bombs and other acts of terror.

[Dinarsaurus]

How would a RV aid the poor Iraqis in the immediate future if they haven't got a pot to piss in to start with.They need reassurances and action regarding infrastructure,jobs and basic amenities.

[Moses]

Having been on this ride since early 2004 I now find myself alone among those who invested back then,.... being in the High Threat Security Industry we get to see a few sides of things that most refuse to believe even exists.

The Middle East is currently reshaping itself into something that will leave our children with a battle for the ages. Look at the map around Iraq , it is not pretty what is happening, and the reshaping that is taking place will only end when strict Theocratic rule is in place,... Democracy is NOT going to be the end result for any of the countries surrounding Iraq and to believe that Iraq can withstand the pressure would be a stretch (or, require a Willful suspension of disbelief), already Iran is openly funding startups in the rural areas of Iraq for any willing to open a business,... Is Maliki living with a foot in both worlds? Probably! Iran has been holding up progress in Iraq since 2003 and will continue to do all it can to achieve its ends.

The answer to the question that we are all asking is, will the Dhimmists at the UN allow Iran to fulfill its desire and delay the RV long enough so that the new Islamic World will have a ready made ATM?

If things do not break in our favor very very soon, there will in all probablility be no hope for our Dinar to ever be cashed in.

Like it or not, evil exists,.... and any person, group or Ideology that would put me and my children on our knees under threat of beheading is evil.

For all of the Bashers out there, I have been in and out of the Middle East since 82 and count many friends to be Arab, Samarian, Kurdish, Sunni, Shia and Persian.

Forgot to add,.. Great Post Logolas, +1 from me!

Edited February 22, 2011 by Moses

[Legolas]

Having been on this ride since early 2004 I now find myself alone among those who invested back then,.... being in the High Threat Security Industry we get to see a few sides of things that most refuse to believe even exists.

The Middle East is currently reshaping itself into something that will leave our children with a battle for the ages. Look at the map around Iraq , it is not pretty what is happening, and the reshaping that is taking place will only end when strict Theocratic rule is in place,... Democracy is NOT going to be the end result for any of the countries surrounding Iraq and to believe that Iraq can withstand the pressure would be a stretch (or, require a Willful suspension of disbelief), already Iran is openly funding startups in the rural areas of Iraq for any willing to open a business,... Is Maliki living with a foot in both worlds? Probably! Iran has been holding up progress in Iraq since 2003 and will continue to do all it can to achieve its ends.

The answer to the question that we are all asking is, will the Dhimmists at the UN allow Iran to fulfill its desire and delay the RV long enough so that the new Islamic World will have a ready made ATM?

If things do not break in our favor very very soon, there will in all probablility be no hope for our Dinar to ever be cashed in.

Like it or not, evil exists,.... and any person, group or Ideology that would put me and my children on our knees under threat of beheading is evil.

For all of the Bashers out there, I have been in and out of the Middle East since 82 and count many friends to be Arab, Samarian, Kurdish, Sunni, Shia and Persian.

Forgot to add,.. Great Post Logolas, +1 from me!

You make some excellent points Moses, and I have to admit, I have little faith in the U.N. at this point. Few people have an understanding of the fundamentalist issues which constitute a large majority of the problems in the M.E., and it would take hundreds of pages to address them. Our only hope lies in the younger generation of the citizens of these countries who are better educated and whose belief systems don't revolve completely around religion and the Koran. There was an amazing story on 60 Minutes last night describing the events in Tunisia. While my hope is limited at best, these brave individuals deserve our support, difficult as it may be to affect the ultimate outcome. Clearly you are one of the comparatively few who have witnessed and understand the many complex issues.

[DEL RIO]

MALIKI WENT TO KUWAIT TO TELL DON'T GET MAD BUT<<<<<<< OUR DINAR WILL RV MORE THAN YOUR DINAR !! AND WE'LL SETTLE THIS DEPT ONCE AND FOR ALL , END OF STORY !!

[Legolas]

How would a RV aid the poor Iraqis in the immediate future if they haven't got a pot to piss in to start with.They need reassurances and action regarding infrastructure,jobs and basic amenities.

You are correct Dinarsaurus, the RV would have very limited immediate benefit to the average Iraqi, as most of them have little if any savings. The most important issues to the Iraqi people are undoubtedly the basic services which support their everyday lives by way of improvements in infrastructure. That being said, I seriously doubt that anything can be done in the near term which will convince them that these things are coming anytime soon. They've experienced repeated failed promises and witnessed rampant corruption. They are therefore unlikely to believe anything Maliki "says." My point is that something as significant as the revaluation of their currency would undoubtedly restore a sense of civic pride in their country which "might" in the short term prevent a bad situation from spiraling out of control. It could have a similar calming effect on surrounding countries as the positive results would eventually be widespread. I know of no other potentially life-changing move which might have that effect. The RV would seem to be their "last best hope" if it is based in reality.

[Moses]

Legolas,

Many have successfully made the argument that the Internet was/is a game changer in that it has changed the way that all citizens of the world communicate and educate themselves, in the 29 years I have been at this craft, I have been able to go from getting mail twice a month to chatting live with a web came to those I wish,... WOW. Whatever we think the Net is now, left free and unfettered it will be much much different for our Kids, as it will be to them for thier kids.

Unless they can put the Genie back in the bottle!

[Legolas]

Legolas,

Many have successfully made the argument that the Internet was/is a game changer in that it has changed the way that all citizens of the world communicate and educate themselves, in the 29 years I have been at this craft, I have been able to go from getting mail twice a month to chatting live with a web came to those I wish,... WOW. Whatever we think the Net is now, left free and unfettered it will be much much different for our Kids, as it will be to them for thier kids.

Unless they can put the Genie back in the bottle!

I totally agree. The internet, and specifically "Facebook" have been, and will undoubtedly grow indescribably as a dominant force in shaping the future of political discourse. We can only hope that the intelligent among our current and future world leaders will be smart enough to utilize its unlimited potential for more effective "good" while the evil among us attempt to take advantage of its equally effective "dark side."

[Moses]

I totally agree. The internet, and specifically "Facebook" have been, and will undoubtedly grow indescribably as a dominant force in shaping the future of political discourse. We can only hope that the intelligent among our current and future world leaders will be smart enough to utilize its unlimited potential for more effective "good" while the evil among us attempt to take advantage of its equally effective "dark side."

Lets hope that no government ever has the Balls again to shut the Net down for any excuse whatsoever, (hint to all would be Autocrats, GOVERN but do not attempt to Rule!

[Darth Nemesis]

I'm getting more nervous as the week goes along Legolas

[Rayzur]

Legolas.... your conjecture is for sure, one scenario..... and of course anything is possible...... and I would like to suggest an alternative to your "If its real , then this would happen" thoughts.....

None of us know what is really driving the department heads of Iraq. We know tons of people from the US Treasury are there, Energy is there, and who knows who else. I read earlier that the IS Trbie put forth a candidate for Defense Minister and he has been consistently rejected. The IS asserts that Maliki wants someone loyal to him... and they will pursue some kind of legal action to prevail in this (or at least call into question)..Elsewhere I have read that if Maliki steps down, or is stepped down, that he will be tried as a war criminal.... Seems to me he has every need to make sure he has the support he needs to stay in office and remain seated.... The imminent threat to him and his tenure, may be much larger and more real than any protestor march looming in the more distant (though near) future….. We have no idea what the threats really are to this government and the individuals forming it….

Its interesting how many times I read, “this is Iraq”, though I wonder what others have said about the US. Italian friends watching our news are still trying to figure out what a hanging chad is… and how Bush got to the president for a second term, after the Court “put him there”…(not arguing that point, just referencing it)…. If you watch us now, you will see this place called Wisconsin is “protesting” just like they are in the ME (yes there are vast differences, and I doubt world news gets that philosophical)….. I guarantee you that people all over the world have an opinion as to what the governor should do… and if it really mattered he would do it…. Still others are trying to figure out if a Governor is a junior layer to the Presidency (yes these are questions I’ve encountered in people trying to understand US Government)…. People around the world are also hearing that the US will be bankrupt sometime in March 2011…. For all we know, those same people have connected the Wisconsin riots with the bankruptcy of the US…. Those watching our news hear that we have to raise the debt ceiling to avoid this collision, and that the Republicans are holding the Democrats hostage for concession before voting to do this (again, NOT debating whether or not this is true or will work…AND, it is what has been reported on some news channels). I suspect people all over the world watching us wonder why the President doesn’t step in and raise the debt ceiling, and therein stop the Wisconsin protesters before it gets worse…. People wondering that obviously don’t understand the complexity of the issues, much less how our Government works….Obama can’t fix it by himself anymore than Maliki can fix the issues of Iraq by himself…

I also read where people say if Maliki goes away or “his government fails”, that the dinar is dead and there will be no revalue, or words to that effect…..Again, looking at the US... if Obama were to be impeached, (no…. not suggesting it)…. But if he were to be impeached and his whole cabinet were to be replaced….the US dollar would still be our national currency, and it would still serve as our currency and perform as such, whether or not Obama was still in office. The USD does not belong to the US Govt administration currently in office, any more than the dinar belongs to Maliki and his guys… the Federal budget does not “belong” to Obama, anymore than Iraq’s belongs to Maliki….

And there may be variables or nuances I am totally missing… and I just don’t see how what is happening will effect whether or not the dinar RVs…. When maybe…. But not if….

My ten cents, and I may have missed critical variables of geopolitical economies…. indeed very likely….but I just don’t see these variables to be an “ if “ thing as much as a “when” thing….

We’ll be okay in this….it will RV…

God Bless…..

[Legolas]

Legolas.... your conjecture is for sure, one scenario..... and of course anything is possible...... and I would like to suggest an alternative to your "If its real , then this would happen" thoughts.....

None of us know what is really driving the department heads of Iraq. We know tons of people from the US Treasury are there, Energy is there, and who knows who else. I read earlier that the IS Trbie put forth a candidate for Defense Minister and he has been consistently rejected. The IS asserts that Maliki wants someone loyal to him... and they will pursue some kind of legal action to prevail in this (or at least call into question)..Elsewhere I have read that if Maliki steps down, or is stepped down, that he will be tried as a war criminal.... Seems to me he has every need to make sure he has the support he needs to stay in office and remain seated.... The imminent threat to him and his tenure, may be much larger and more real than any protestor march looming in the more distant (though near) future….. We have no idea what the threats really are to this government and the individuals forming it….

Its interesting how many times I read, “this is Iraq”, though I wonder what others have said about the US. Italian friends watching our news are still trying to figure out what a hanging chad is… and how Bush got to the president for a second term, after the Court “put him there”…(not arguing that point, just referencing it)…. If you watch us now, you will see this place called Wisconsin is “protesting” just like they are in the ME (yes there are vast differences, and I doubt world news gets that philosophical)….. I guarantee you that people all over the world have an opinion as to what the governor should do… and if it really mattered he would do it…. Still others are trying to figure out if a Governor is a junior layer to the Presidency (yes these are questions I’ve encountered in people trying to understand US Government)…. People around the world are also hearing that the US will be bankrupt sometime in March 2011…. For all we know, those same people have connected the Wisconsin riots with the bankruptcy of the US…. Those watching our news hear that we have to raise the debt ceiling to avoid this collision, and that the Republicans are holding the Democrats hostage for concession before voting to do this (again, NOT debating whether or not this is true or will work…AND, it is what has been reported on some news channels). I suspect people all over the world watching us wonder why the President doesn’t step in and raise the debt ceiling, and therein stop the Wisconsin protesters before it gets worse…. People wondering that obviously don’t understand the complexity of the issues, much less how our Government works….Obama can’t fix it by himself anymore than Maliki can fix the issues of Iraq by himself…

I also read where people say if Maliki goes away or “his government fails”, that the dinar is dead and there will be no revalue, or words to that effect…..Again, looking at the US... if Obama were to be impeached, (no…. not suggesting it)…. But if he were to be impeached and his whole cabinet were to be replaced….the US dollar would still be our national currency, and it would still serve as our currency and perform as such, whether or not Obama was still in office. The USD does not belong to the US Govt administration currently in office, any more than the dinar belongs to Maliki and his guys… the Federal budget does not “belong” to Obama, anymore than Iraq’s belongs to Maliki….

And there may be variables or nuances I am totally missing… and I just don’t see how what is happening will effect whether or not the dinar RVs…. When maybe…. But not if….

My ten cents, and I may have missed critical variables of geopolitical economies…. indeed very likely….but I just don’t see these variables to be an “ if “ thing as much as a “when” thing….

We’ll be okay in this….it will RV…

God Bless…..

Interesting perspectives Rayzur, without a doubt. My concern with the situation in Iraq is stability. Without long-term stability and the potential for investment and economic growth, I see little chance (or need) for a change in their currency. People repeatedly refer to it as "toilet paper" but this is in fact not the case at all. It's totally relative. Many countries far more stable and productive than Iraq (even in the same region) have currencies with less value (per dollar) than Iraq. This doesn't make them worthless. It only means it takes more units to equal a dollar. The important factor is how many of their units are required to buy a particular product as compared to the dollar. For example, if it required 4,000 dinars to purchase a can of Coke, one might argue that their currency has little value.....but this is not the case. Their currency needs only to become internationally tradable to have "value," and this could conceivably occur with or without RV. The key is stability, and they currently have none.

My basic premise was that IF the RV was in fact imminent, one could logically argue that this would be the ideal time to implement it, given the fact that it could drastically alter the political landscape at a time when it is desperately needed to avert potential disaster. The fact that it hasn't yet occurred during what appears to be their "11th hour" makes me wonder, and of even greater concern, is the indisputable fact that the so-called "intel" has been so obviously and repeatedly fabricated for so many years now. Obviously the ultimate outcome is anything but certain, one way or the other. We can only wait and hope.

[MrRich]

Good to see you posting again Legolas. I always enjoy reading what you have to say. I agree with you that no RV is necessary for the IQD to be internationally tradable. But they do need a stronger currency for investment in their country and greater purchasing power to rebuild Iraq and develop other industries for exports. Also, they have expressed a desire to dedollarize Iraq which would require a value of at least $1. I hope we see the RV this week, but I don't feel that all is lost if it doesn't happen. There are so many forces involved in this that want it to happen I feel that it's just a matter of time. It may be that they're waiting for more stability, although I don't know if that stability can come without an RV.

[Hashim1968]

MALIKI WENT TO KUWAIT TO TELL DON'T GET MAD BUT<<<<<<< OUR DINAR WILL RV MORE THAN YOUR DINAR !! AND WE'LL SETTLE THIS DEPT ONCE AND FOR ALL , END OF STORY !!

Lets hope for the best. But prepare for the worst.

[BanG]

Legolas no worries, IT IS IN THE MAKINGS RIGHT NOW. People do not let rumors, speculations and other peoples opinions sway you in your journey up to this point, IT IS HAPPENING NOW AS WE SPEAK! Relax, this is coming out nicely and has already been decided. I believe my 2 friends in IRAQ with all my heart. Much of this is Smoke and Mirrors to keep the media in the Blind. Hang in there it will happen very soon.

[doc9574]

Remember the golden rule? He who has the gold ,rules. In this case black gold whatever is happening over there you can bet those with their hands in the cookie jar arent going to just take it out and say "ok, its yours take it all" . No bashing legolas but things change all of the time and IMO to put a "this is it or else" theme on a situation that is inherently unstable and has been that way for hundreds if not thousands of years is just too hard to do.Realistically those people have been fighting so long that it has become a normal state for them. They have become like well trained retrievers, throw a stick, dead bird or a stick of lit dynamite and they will retrieve it, why? because they are trained to do that,its all they know so they keep doing it. When was the last time you heard on the news "the middle east is now in a state of peace". Im no expert but i dont see anything going on but the norm just in a different way. Good post though, appreciate it.

[George2351]

Great thoughts going here this morning.

[Doc31]

I agree with you that no RV is necessary for the IQD to be internationally tradable. But they do need a stronger currency for investment in their country and greater purchasing power to rebuild Iraq and develop other industries for exports. Also, they have expressed a desire to dedollarize Iraq which would require a value of at least $1. I hope we see the RV this week, but I don't feel that all is lost if it doesn't happen. There are so many forces involved in this that want it to happen I feel that it's just a matter of time. It may be that they're waiting for more stability, although I don't know if that stability can come without an RV.

Agreed