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CBI Currency Auction 2/17/2011


Doc31
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Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1837)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 17-FEB-2011.

The results were as follows:

DetailsNotesNumber of banks15

Auction price selling dinar / US$1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$-----

Amount sold at auction price (US$)163,225,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----

Total offers for buying (US$)163,225,000

Total offers for selling (US$)-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

30m8o6c.jpg

Oil low but stable currently

Gold running in a $9 channel presently

Wow the cash portion was $3.1M ... this is the largest since Oct 6th, 2010 it represents 1.89% and that is with only 15 banks participating and moderated volume. I know ... it's not the 12% of pre-October 7th but it is the largest since.

Just a thought for you conspiracy theorist and you know who you are! Tomorrow there will not be an auction ... yes ... yes ... and Monday is Presidents Day in America (48 hours of no auctions then an American holiday on Monday) ... so maybe ... just maybe they are getting one last gulp before ... lol ...

I'm sorry ... and I am not making fun of ... because part of me says MAYBE ... the other part says "been here before" ... doesn't standing on the ground watching the roller-coaster give much more perspective? I just couldn't resist setting that up.

No time this morning

At a glance ... the news is either al-Maliki's visit to Kuwait or civil unrest

The thing that concerns me most is that al-Maliki would allow the unrest to continue to escalate ... I know, hold on ... it's not smart ... ask Mubarak ... the solution is simple, it is our blessing ... we are acutely aware of that ... I've had calls from all over telling me that the only thing left to do is "push the button" (aka pull the trigger) the GOI and budget are all actually done (who knows) ... but al-Maliki has a reported 3000 (some say 4200) secret police and Amnesty International says six or seven secret prisons (I forget exactly). Ask yourself ... what would Marshall Law do to our investment.

I know why would an elected guy (ok ... sort of) allow a situation to escalate to that level? Yes ... I know ... IMO ... the powers that be wouldn't sign on for that nor allow it to go that long. Frank26 says that presidential order 13303 expires May 21st ... uh, huh ... there's your big notes back in date.

Gotta' run

Peace

Doc31

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Presidential Order 13303 expires, but does not necessarily mean it can't be extended.

In a sense, I hope it is not extended.....

I'll be curious to see the Auction results come Monday... Even though US banks are not open or do Busines Monday (from my knowledge)

I read somewhere that Parliament convense again this coming Saturday. The drop-dead date of the budget is supposedly Sunday.

February 25th is the expected 1,000,000 people demonstration. I wonder how much the Govt. will accomplish prior to all that. The sooner the better and the more they accomplish sooner the better as well.. Wouldn't you think?

I also read that the budget was making changes due to an increase in the price of oil. Hello Iraq, there will always be a change... Just peg it at your simple "feel safe" rate and have the profits go into a surprlus fund that'll be re-invested as issues arise.. Simple! No reason to squeeze all the juice out of an orange to fill a cup...

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Frank26 says that presidential order 13303 expires May 21st ... uh, huh ... there's your big notes back in date.

Yep ... I hit the publish button and walked out the door. About 30 seconds later I asked myself if I had put a question mark at the end of the sentence and wondered exactly how I had phrased it ... did I say "perhaps"?

I just walked in and began to grumble ... I meant to ask it not say it ... "perhaps this is the big note recall date?!"

Obviously there are other conclusions:

1) "W" never expected it to go this long (best guess 6-12 months prior)

2) as Darin pointed out ... it COULD be reinstated

3) does it need to be reinstated though? Do I need a presidential order to buy/hold Euros or Pounds? vendors ... another story?

4) it could be the last day that it would be sold (unless it is internationally traded of course)

5) (you fill this in)

Darin I enjoyed your contribution ... I don't know about you but I cast a skeptical eye at "drop dead" dates ... based on what was said prior to June 15 by the UNSC AND from what we see from the "zero cash" portion of the auction ... June 15 WAS the UNSC "drop dead" date for the IQD RI/RV ... however, I would lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve to be wrong!

Peace

Doc31

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Yep ... I hit the publish button and walked out the door. About 30 seconds later I asked myself if I had put a question mark at the end of the sentence and wondered exactly how I had phrased it ... did I say "perhaps"?

I just walked in and began to grumble ... I meant to ask it not say it ... "perhaps this is the big note recall date?!"

Obviously there are other conclusions:

1) "W" never expected it to go this long (best guess 6-12 months prior)

2) as Darin pointed out ... it COULD be reinstated

3) does it need to be reinstated though? Do I need a presidential order to buy/hold Euros or Pounds? vendors ... another story?

4) it could be the last day that it would be sold (unless it is internationally traded of course)

5) (you fill this in)

Darin I enjoyed your contribution ... I don't know about you but I cast a skeptical eye at "drop dead" dates ... based on what was said prior to June 15 by the UNSC AND from what we see from the "zero cash" portion of the auction ... June 15 WAS the UNSC "drop dead" date for the IQD RI/RV ... however, I would lovvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvve to be wrong!

Peace

Doc31

Oh... Don't give me too much credit... :) I am just a lurker who is always looking for factual information and everyday is a new learning experience on here. I am sure there are many people who lurk just as knowledgeable as I am, but are just too lazy to contribute...

When I first heard about the Presidential order, I never knew it could "expire" but that would make sense. When signed, how long does it last until it expires again?

If the price of oil keeps fluctuating, will it cause more delays with the GOI attempting to squeeze every bit of juice of out of an orange?

Here is my reasonable idea/theory.. Set the budget for a pegged rate. Their original $71/per/barrel. Obviously it trades higher than that, but it'll generate a surplus for Iraq regardless. That money can be put aside as funds in case for some "odd' reason it falls below their pegged rate (Unlikely, but you never know). Now, as that set aside cash increases, they can use the extra towards services they believe they've over looked, places where it can be re-invested (Such as services, electricity, give back to the citizens, improvements, or paying off debts).

As for June 15th.... Sounds like your referencing the release of the DFI funds... From my understanding they'll be hit hard by creditors if they don't do anything by than. I am also informed they will not extend the protection of those funds, so if nothing is done prior they may have to use those funds to pay off creditors. It'll reduce their debt in that case, but not sure where they'll stand after that. Will it be enough to pay off all debts? It seems as if they're looking to make sure they don't lose those funds. B.I.W mentioned they get an Audit report back in April, a meeting in May about the plan to withdraw the DFI funds and also May is the month the Pres. order expires, while June is the DFI releasing funds. The nice thing about the May/June time of the year, I believe oil will be over $100/barrel. (Economy is improving, so more oil will be used in my opinion.... $120-ish a barrel would not surprise me much... Talk about a Surplus Iraq would pull in at those rates.)

Here is how I say we should view the news media...

We should assume the ministries need to be seated unless confirmed by media.

We should assume the budget still needs to be passed unless confirmed by media.

We should assume Iraq is still under Ch. 7 sanctions unless told otherwise by media.

Seems like Iraq & Kuwait are making progress w/ sanctions.

I think Feb. 28th, Kuwait releases the 1,000 KWD to their citizens (Roughly $3500 USD)... If Iraq helped w/ repayment of debts to let them do that, it'll be interesting to see if that goes down as planned.

Arab Summit, March 29th... A huge test on the stability of Iraq's government and security. - I would think if they could successfully hold a Summit meeting, their country is pretty stable IMO.

Private sectors are having deals signed.... Jobs will soon be created.. There is no where to go but up from here!

:EDIT:

I just remember seeing the operational exchange rates and their last update. The IQD was last updated March 01, 2010. I think from 1170 to 1168, nothing huge, but something to think about with people using March 1st as a rumor. Could the GOI use March 1st again to change their rates? 1 year pegged at a rate, when the economy is improving, while more reserves are being found and a more stable govt. You think it'd have to increase... Right? :)

Edited by Darin
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