RV Checklist

[Chillin' out]

Of course this is only my opinion....

But instead of letting rumors and gurus get us down, how about a little common sense about what is NOT done yet.

So here is my checklist:

1) Fully announced government including all remaining ministries.

Key issue: Allawi and the new "oversight" group, The National Council for Strategic Policy is essential to checking Malikis power. Either they will form this group, empower it, or we will see Maliki balk and grab for more power. If that happens, this thing may get strung out for another 6 months or more.

We need official announcement (not some rumor from Okie that its "done")

2) HCL done. Maybe its done in the Erbil agreement and the Kurds oil production is a clue that it is actually done.

Personally I dont think so. The Iraqis took nearly a year to form a government (and its still not officially done), do you really think they will move a lighting speed to agree on how to divide up oil profits?? I see a long protracted fight over this one. Probably need a completed census for the arguments to even begin. Havent heard anything lately about the census.

3) Chapter 7 fully released. Get the Kuwaitis happy for crying out loud!

4) To a lesser extent, budget announced. May not be a true "key" to the RV, but it ties in.

Hopefully we get lucky and this all gets done before DFI protection runs out in June.

But remember, this is really all about OIL and who controls and profits from it. That means GOVERNMENT FORMATION and HCL.

Until then, save the RV rumors.........please! We are all too tired!

[behaviorkat]

Nice post--- hopfully we will see some info and results on the HCL agreements, and soon.

[brlintn]

Good post and I agree with the assumption

[jg1]

Now if only the Iraq people can hold out until the RV is done, or will it turn out like Egypt. I'm crossing my fingers. I think Maliki see's it coming that's why he is being proactive and cutting his salary.

[BIGCG]

Of course this is only my opinion....

But instead of letting rumors and gurus get us down, how about a little common sense about what is NOT done yet.

So here is my checklist:

1) Fully announced government including all remaining ministries.

Key issue: Allawi and the new "oversight" group, The National Council for Strategic Policy is essential to checking Malikis power. Either they will form this group, empower it, or we will see Maliki balk and grab for more power. If that happens, this thing may get strung out for another 6 months or more.

We need official announcement (not some rumor from Okie that its "done")

2) HCL done. Maybe its done in the Erbil agreement and the Kurds oil production is a clue that it is actually done.

Personally I dont think so. The Iraqis took nearly a year to form a government (and its still not officially done), do you really think they will move a lighting speed to agree on how to divide up oil profits?? I see a long protracted fight over this one. Probably need a completed census for the arguments to even begin. Havent heard anything lately about the census.

3) Chapter 7 fully released. Get the Kuwaitis happy for crying out loud!

4) To a lesser extent, budget announced. May not be a true "key" to the RV, but it ties in.

Hopefully we get lucky and this all gets done before DFI protection runs out in June.

But remember, this is really all about OIL and who controls and profits from it. That means GOVERNMENT FORMATION and HCL.

Until then, save the RV rumors.........please! We are all too tired!

Great post. The only thing i dont completey agree on is #2. I believe that it is DONE and reason being thats the $$$ and who gets how much. I personally believe these greedy SOB's worked that out 1st. GO IRAQ GO RV/RI

[havasumom]

nicely done.

[Charlene]

Thank you for a good post.

[Chillin' out]

Great post. The only thing i dont completey agree on is #2. I believe that it is DONE and reason being thats the $$$ and who gets how much. I personally believe these greedy SOB's worked that out 1st. GO IRAQ GO RV/RI

Could be BIGCG. That very well could be already done. Would love to hear more about it soon.

Maybe that was the "real" holdup since last march. 9 months of haggling not over the PM but over the oil $$$

Hopefully youre right, that Kurdish oil flowing is a great sign.

[Anita]

Nice read. Thank you

[dinarokie]

i agree, i dont know why they have to drag everything out over there ..... probably the only country thats slower than ours ...

[G Zam]

Hopefully we get lucky and this all gets done before DFI protection runs out in June.

DFI release date may be moved again now before May 1st..

"The government asked the Central Bank of Iraq to immediately open accounts before May 1 to transfer funds from DFI," al-Dabbagh said. He added the Central Bank should agree on "a specific and transparent mechanism to calculate payments to Kuwait,"

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2011-02-02-iraq-settlement_N.htm

[HYDRANT]

CHILLIN OUT--SHOULDNT WE AD WTO TO YOUR LIST

[Carrello]

DFI release date may be moved again now before May 1st..

"The government asked the Central Bank of Iraq to immediately open accounts before May 1 to transfer funds from DFI," al-Dabbagh said. He added the Central Bank should agree on "a specific and transparent mechanism to calculate payments to Kuwait,"

This is very interesting information, but also within the same article it is stated:

In the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, an Iraqi journalist said he was arrested Wednesday for participating in a demonstration against Iran last week.

Journalist Ali Mahmud, who works for the Kurdish newspaper Awena, said the demonstration in front of the Iranian consulate in the city of Irbil was properly licensed. He said two other protesters also were arrested for ripping portraits of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and throwing rocks at the consulate.

Kurdish police refused to comment on the arrests.

Iraqis are being arrested for demonstrating against Iran. Wow. Has anyone seen what they are demonstrating about? Maybe I missed the news article.

[Chillin' out]

CHILLIN OUT--SHOULDNT WE AD WTO TO YOUR LIST

I think movement in that direction is a good thing, but my thinking is that Iraqs acceptance to the WTO would be POST-RV.

Dont think they will let them in with the current state of their currency.

But I honestly havent researched it much. That would be good info to look up.

Are there others countries in the WTO with nearly worthless currency??

If there are, then we can quit following WTO information as it wouldnt really matter to us.

If however, WTO members all have stable and somewhat valuable currency, then I would continue to track Iraqs push for membership as it may be a clue as to where we actually stand.

DFI release date may be moved again now before May 1st..

"The government asked the Central Bank of Iraq to immediately open accounts before May 1 to transfer funds from DFI," al-Dabbagh said. He added the Central Bank should agree on "a specific and transparent mechanism to calculate payments to Kuwait,"

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2011-02-02-iraq-settlement_N.htm

Curious!!

I guess if "opening" of accounts equals early Chapter 7 release, then this is pretty big news. The part about calculating payments to Kuwait would indicate that.

Not sure but they may just be setting up accounts early for the transfer of DFI funds??

But the real concern for Iraq is DFI "protection". Meaning other debtors cant come making claims on the DFI fund to secure debt payments.

That runs out in June and is a very big date on Iraqs calender. Dont think that article refers to moving the "protection" date forward a month.

That would not be to Iraqs advantage..........and we know how they feel about advantages :lol: