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Due to the recent positive developments surrounding Iraq in the past year there has been a euphoric rise in the imminent speculation of a Re-vaulation (RV) of the Iraqi Dinars. Certain groups and individuals have taken it opon themselves to promote the great aspects of investing in the "devalued" Iraq Dinars (IQD) with many and most believeing that a RV of the IQD's "has to happen" and it has to be RV close to what the pre-Gulf War pegged rate was of 1 IQD = $3.21 USD. You now have hundreds and even thousands of people on conference calls listening to how they can achieve great wealth when the current IQD's RV close to the pre war levels! It never fails that in any "get rich quick" scheme you hear the same things...."it's a groundfloor opportunity", "it's a once in a lifetime opportunity", "don't miss out you better get on board right now", etc!!! While many of the individuals telling family friends and the like about the opportunity they don't have a vested interest in benefitting from others getting involved,what they don't see and understand is that there are individuals that are making tons of money right now!

Those selling dinars are doing exceptionally well....for at least the last year the exchange rate has remained pegged at 1170 IQD = $1 USD which means it cost about $85 to purchase/exchange for $100,000 of IQD. Just 45 days ago you could purchase 100k of IQD's for $140, not that crazy of a markup considering that there are cost involved with getting the IQD's over here and there has to be a profit margin! However, because of so many people believeing that the RV was imminent the demand for the IQD drove the price up to over $200 USD depite the wholesale price remaining constant! That's well over a 120% markup! So if you recently purchase IQD's you will need an appreciation of at least 135% when you factor in shipping fees "$24" to just breakeven! You also have individuals promoting "setting up a Trust" which will cost you thousands of dollars!

The sad part is that like all "get rich quick" schemes (not necessarily a scam) people don't do their "homework". Despite the fact that you may not be an economist understanding basic math will let you know that an RV of the magnitude that is being promoted is absolutely absurd! Just know this if a currency goes from 1 cent to an increase to 2 cents that is a 100% increase...very simply you doubled the value, if you go from 1 cent to 10 cent that is a 1,000% percent increase, if you go from 1 cent to 1.00 that is a 10,000% increase, if you go from 1 cent to 3.00 that is a 30,000% increase....yes 30,000% increase!!! The next time you go to visit your Dr. tell him that you made an investment and you are going to "pretty much overnite" receive a 30,000% percent increase on your investment....the Dr. would probably want to admit you to an insane asylum!! Imagine seeing a bank with a sign in the window saying 3 month CD 100% percent let alone 1000 or 10,000%. You would never put your money in that bank! Common sense tells you...."if it sounds to good to be true....." you know how the saying goes!! The problem is most people hated math in school and unfortunately don't utilitze it to make sense out of things!

In alot of ways the same way people think that the IQD's will RV close to pre-war levels and close to Kuwait is the same as people wanting to sell their house today at levels that a house sold for at the top of the real estate market. It's not going to happen you have to deal with the realities of today not 5 years ago and you have to lower the price of your home. same goes for the value of Kuwait's Dinars (KWD) and the IQD. You have to understand the history of these two countries! Iraq has been crippled by the various wars over the last 30 years and the past decade of US led sanctions....a lot of where we are today started with the Iraq/Iran war of 8 years! The war with Iran left Iraq with a lot of debt of which Kuwait was providing because of the vested interest they had with Iraq. Two main issues caused Saddam to invade and annex Kuwait - Kuwait refused to forgive debt that Iraq owed to them from the war with Iran and Saddam believed that Kuwait was taking oil from Iraq on oil fields that were on the borders of the respective countries! We all have witnessed and seen how Iraq had become a country rife with bloodshed, crime, and great challenges due to these events.

In the meantime Kuwait has been able to flourish and is currently the 8th wealthiest country in the world...with a GDP of 117.3 billion(USD) in '09 to impressive growth of 144.3 billion for '10 versus GDP of 111.5 billion in '09 in Iraq to 117.7 billion in '10 est. Unemployment in Kuwait is 2.5% versus 15.3% in Iraq, Kuwait produces 2.5 million barrels a day of oil and despite Iraq being about 20x's bigger it produces 2.4 million barrels a day. Kuwait is one of the only countries in the world that has a surplus budget over 18 billion for '10 Iraq has a deficit of 19 billion almost the exact opposite. So while these two countries do have somethings in common...their locale, their histories, their natural resources, etc they are worlds apart from an economy stand point.

Now Iraq will close the gap in the coming years ahead...but it will take years not days and weeks! Therefore, it is totally unrealistic to think they will be valued in a similar fashion! There is no question some sort of RV will take place but to think there will be a 30,000% increase anytime soon is foolhearty to say the least! Don't fall for the clandestine meetings, and secretive callers on conference calls....the math alone tells you that what you are being told on these calls is a bunch of BS!! Here is another bit of math for you...IQD's in circulation are currently well over 50 Trillion yes 50 Trillion! The US currently has about 4.5 Trillion in circulation! If the RV happened as everything stands today that 50 Trillion would amount to a number in the "Sextillions"! Which would be totally unprecedented and not possible! So look at history to get some answers....the new gov't of Iraq will have to take those trillions and trillions of dollars out of circulation...it's impossible to have something go up in value when its so abundant!!! It's the laws of supply and demand! The best case senario is that you will be able to exchange your old IQD's for the new ones at banks here in America, otherwise the dinar sellers will profit greatly when they charge you to exchange your old dinars for the inevitable new ones that will be issued with much lower denominations! I do believe there will be an RV but it will not be anywhere near the value of the KWD but its possible it could RV close to the Bahrain Dinar which is .3770 cents to 1USD. But it will take time and it probably won't hit that level until the old dinars are out of circulation! If you think it can happen another way you just don't understand the basics of economics, math and currencies. Also know that no currency in the world is in a vacuum, all currencies are "relative" to other currencies so when one appreciates another depreciates against it! I believe the future prospects for Iraq are very bright but it will take many years to bring Iraq into the 21st century! Think longterm (7 to 10 yrs) and you may make a gain of 10,000 or even 20,000% but not overnite.....stop dreaming and wakeup! Iraq is a special situation but it's not that special!!!

Sources; Central Bank of Iraq, CIA World Book of Facts and Wikipedia

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I know your going to get bashed because people cant handle anything that doesnt mean they arent going to be a millionare overnight, but you bring a valid point to the table about the amount in circulation.....although I believe your numbers are off quite a bit, 27 trillion is still a rediculous amount of currency to be in circulation for any huge RV to occur.....and to think it will start out at the Kuwaiti Dinar is very far off from the truth of things.....it will take many years to get to that level......coming out low and gradually rising in value seems to be the most realistic and logical way of it happening......thanks for bringing a dose of reality and not spreading nonsensical BS.......

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While I appreaciate the post and your thoughts, there are just as many speculative thoughts and facts that point to your theory as there is for the theory of it being possible. While you may be good with math and economics, you do no work for the govt of Iraq and are in their meetings, and have no idea what their plans are. Not bashing, just stating that everything is speculative. EVERYTHING.

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The only thing I gathered from this post that I look for in most, is the OP agreed that a RV is likely to happen in the future.

He/She argues that the rates are not going to be as absurdly high as we hear. But, it's an opinion, which we all take.. To support the idea of the $3+ RV, is mostly because of the idea that if it can be at those levels and drop to worthelss over night, we can speculate the same can happen in reverse. Or potentially the same, right? I would agree.. Yet, I am skeptical at high rates, I just don't see them holding the levels of a mere penny to consider themselves a big-dog country of the world. They would have to be similar to other oil-dwelling countries from the ME and a 0.25 minimum to function indepedently. But, what do I know, just like everyone else I'm just spitting out opinions.

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I'm not part of the $3.22 crowd but I do have to question you on a couple of things. First, where do you get the figure of 50 trillion dinar? The figure I have heard is 27 trillion and the CBI and GOI are pursuing a money supply reduction strategy to bring that figure down. Second, the Bahraini dinar is not $.37 cents. It is .37 Bahraini dinar to the USD which comes to something like $2.65. Now if you're saying an RV of around $.37 is more realistic than $3.86 I would agree. But if you're going to try to set everybody straight on the facts of the IQD you had better get your facts right first.

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This guy signs up as of this morning, to post this information... This is his first & only post as of so far.

Is this user even a dinar holder? Or someone looking to stir a ruckus using what looks to be reasonable opinions.

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i read all of your post.... I took it for what it was... an opinion and prob belongs in the opinion forum.... Not sure if you have been following this community but it is very unique and there are a lot of folks on here that have done a lot of research and put in a lot of time and patience and have built up a reputation gradually... I wish you well... you seem to want to bring good info and good opinion to the table so to that i look forward to your future posts....

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I imagine the OP will be "neg'd" to death by the end of the day.

People can be so ridiculous ....they salivate over every $ 3+ , $5+, $6+ rumor that any crackhead loser with a computer can post on these various forums...those same ignorant rumors will make it around the globe in 5 minutes...then some $7 an hour bank teller (who is a member on some dinar site somewhere) sees the rumor and picks up the phone and calls somebody. THEN the rumor becomes BANK INTEL...on and on and on.

Yet anytime someone tries to have a theory that the IQD can NEVER RV (initially) at the value of the KWD...well that person gets tagged as a negative nelly and "neg'd"

Most dinar "dreamers" seem to have a genetic flaw that does not allow their brains to distinguish between someone being NEGATIVE and someone having a DIFFERENT OPINION on things...its very perplexing....

Check yourself and give yourselves some balance......if you are going to get all electric in the pants everytime Okie or TK or whoever touches a keyboard to fill your eyes and mind with even more lies....then you should at least give yourself the OPTION of doing some simple math and realize that it just MIGHT NOT RV at anything close to Kuwait....just sayin...;)

I would see more credibility to the OP, if the OP had not signed up as of this morning to the forums and make this his/her first and only post. I would think the same, as I am sure most of us would call the person out if the information was very positive... Rumors, opinions, etc in a high regard, because the credibility factor of this person is really low. No one will take them seriously whether their information is positive, negative, or even neutral. Its in our own nature to make the prediction this person is likely trying to troll the board and stir the pot so to speak. If this person followed the dinar close enough, owned some dinar him or herself, than there is a good chance they'd already be a member of a forum and this would not be their first post.

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InvestWisely brings up some valid points, not that I agree or disagree with him/her. I'm not of the opinion it will RV much over $1.00 and that's because I've done my own research on reconstruction of war-torn countries and have my own opinion of what will happen. I think people receive a negative (-) because the post sounds condescending. That is the ONLY time I give someone a negative (-). Not because they believe in the lop theory or bring up a different opinion than mine. So InvestWisely thank you for bringing a valid post into our forum. It's something to think about. Something for you to think about ... you were doing great until you said this "If you think it can happen another way you just don't understand the basics of economics, math and currencies." Insulting people doesn't work if you're trying to sway people to your side of the argument. But I didn't give you a negative (-) or a (+) because you are entitled to your opinion. Thanks for sharing.

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I'm not part of the $3.22 crowd but I do have to question you on a couple of things. First, where do you get the figure of 50 trillion dinar? The figure I have heard is 27 trillion and the CBI and GOI are pursuing a money supply reduction strategy to bring that figure down. Second, the Bahraini dinar is not $.37 cents. It is .37 Bahraini dinar to the USD which comes to something like $2.65. Now if you're saying an RV of around $.37 is more realistic than $3.86 I would agree. But if you're going to try to set everybody straight on the facts of the IQD you had better get your facts right first.

Scooby Doo you are right about the value of the Bahraini Dinars...my intend was basically to state that I believe the RV might be more like .37 cent to the USD and you can find the info about the amt of outstanding dinars on the CBI website under "Monetary Aggregates"....on the excel spreadsheet line 22...as of March 2010 it was 50.5 Trillion....and yes Im a "newbie" cause I just found out about the site the other day!!

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So having an opinion that there WILL NOT be an initial RV in the range of the KWD is considered "trolling the board"????? :rolleyes:

"Credibility factor" on an anonymous internet forum??? :blink:

ANONYMOUS Posters held in high regard??? :huh:

Why does it matter AT ALL if the person owns dinar or not to have an opinion that is based on something BESIDES pumper rumors??? :rolleyes:

I am SURE that YOU had your first post at some point??? <_<

WOW!...simply WOW!!! :blink:

Wow? You simply wow me.. You need to re-read what I posted.

I simply stated that this is this person's first post... Many people may not take this person seriously? Is that not to be expected?

If someone came on with a rumor with a huge write-up with information saying a RV was about to happen at around this date with this rate that would make many people smile ear to ear in reality is likely to get a lot of negative information. People will question for links, back-up information, and question the person's credibility. I am not saying this person is going to get "negatives" for the simply negative information they are presenting, I am simply saying that this first post could easily be something to stir the pot of the dinar holders of this site.

Yes, we all have to have a first post at some point in our time, but this person tries to come off as well-educated when considering the dinar. Therefore, you think a person with this sort of experience regarding the dinar could likely be a dinar holder, could likely have joined another forum. And "ALSO" has yet to post a response. In time we will see if this person posts again regarding the information they presented. I would not be surprised to see this person not post again.. Why?? Because I would guess they were simply stirring a ruckus within this forum.

And the reason or not that I think it would be interesting if the person held/owned dinar was because I believe they would look into real factual information more seriously. Anyone who had been informed of the dinar investment could simply do a few google searches and find basic information, including the idea of scams, likelihood of redominations, and not a worthy investment. If that was the case, why would they bother to waste their time posting on a forum?

I am simply taking it for what this likely is.. A poster looking to mess with members emotions. We've seen it on the optimistic & pessimistic sides of dinar.

*EDIT* I'm stating this opinioin in a generalization of most cases.. Each case is actually unique in its own ways. No reason to jump conclusion whether positive or negative, and I hold all first time posters to this regard "until" they continue to post and become a solid member of this forum. But that is just how I treat forum individuals. Its how I've learned to deal with new members like this in the past. Most sometimes start with an introduction and they'll get a better reputation starting off doing a forum in the correct manner."

Edited by Darin
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Some good analysis but some wrong info. I trade currencies and the USD vs BHD is 0.3770, which means that every BHD is currently worth $2.64 US. If I recall correctly and I could be wrong, Adam mentioned some time ago that the range would probably be within .10 to .86 cents per IQD, which is still a hell of a return if that happens. Also keep in mine that the Iraqi's themselves have talked about the IQD initially being on par the the USD. If that is the case, then a rate of .86 is more realistic. But all that's said and done, we won't know for sure until they pull the trigger.

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Who really knows? I'm banking on the possibility that the current value of .00085 will change upward. How far is anyone's guess except Shabibi and a few others. Here's the other side. When Brenner devalued the Sadam currency and introduced the current IQD, it was an overnight devaluation.... intentionally to disrupt the flow of legal and most importantly illegal commerce. So, since the sudden devaluation occured in 2003, why is it so farfetched that the opposite can occur? I'm not going to calculate the 1,000's of a percent but the devaluation was substantial..... by plan. The real question in my mind is what level the revaluation will be once the final trigger is pulled? Recently, every year appears to be close. Remember Christmas of 2009? Many were saying we would have a nice, memorable Christmas with obvious reference to revaluation. IQD is currently worthless and non tradeable in the international market. This must change. Tea Leaves of information constantly point toward an improved RV environment. Of course, I thought that last year was our year of celebration. At some future point, the valuation must change from .00085 cents. I'm not sure of $3.22 (as in RI) but why not? On the other hand, $.85 is quite a return on a .00085 investment. It looks like greed and greed hucksters are rapidly infiltrating this investment. Financially harming others is a real and present danger now confronting many joining the forums. Not speaking for Investwisely, but I think that was the message.

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Scooby Doo you are right about the value of the Bahraini Dinars...my intend was basically to state that I believe the RV might be more like .37 cent to the USD and you can find the info about the amt of outstanding dinars on the CBI website under "Monetary Aggregates"....on the excel spreadsheet line 22...as of March 2010 it was 50.5 Trillion....and yes Im a "newbie" cause I just found out about the site the other day!!

A lower rate may seem more reasonable because of the amount of dinar it seems we all hold as a group. A lower rate RV of $0.37 will likely satisfy all dinar holders, and most would cash out at that rate in a heart beat. I view the $3.22+ RV rates as selling points when people mention it to their friends & family. This is what gets them interested in the dinar investment and hop on board. But, we have to consider so many factors are involved that none of us have solid intel, and no real facts to back up our claims. The dinar has increased in value since where it was last pegged at, but when we see the change, will it just be an increase, or an actual RV? Would I be surpised to see it hit over a $1? No, would I be shocked to see it hit above $3.22? Yes.. But not as shocked as one would think. Remember, Saddam was able to choose what his currency was worth and changed it several times. The UN did not respect that rate when he decided it was worth $3.22, when they believed the value was more in the $1-2 range. I think the $1-2 range is what we could see as a reality. Inflation is low, and with the price of oil, and debts being paid off, they'll likely be hitting a surplus soon. (Also, remember this, debts forgiven do not mean they don't have to pay, it means they are forgiven to delay their repayment...)

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I appreciate the OP because it's NICE to have something grounded to read after some of the lofty Chats that are reposted here- with double secret cash outs of different rates all over the world.

There are just as many scenarios for it going one way as there are against it- my personal opinion sits somewhere in between this post and anything said by your typical "pumper" types.

If it starts out at 3.00 plus: bonus for me.

If it starts out at .35- yo. bonus for me.

If it starts out at .02 cents- guess what? Bonus for me.

See a trend?

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I appreciate the OP because it's NICE to have something grounded to read after some of the lofty Chats that are reposted here- with double secret cash outs of different rates all over the world.

There are just as many scenarios for it going one way as there are against it- my personal opinion sits somewhere in between this post and anything said by your typical "pumper" types.

If it starts out at 3.00 plus: bonus for me.

If it starts out at .35- yo. bonus for me.

If it starts out at .02 cents- guess what? Bonus for me.

See a trend?

Any increase of value where you can consider yourself coming out ahead is a bonus for you.

Consider some of the people that are dinar holders on this site that could easily send their millions of IQD back to DT for a $1,000 per million. They're already coming out ahead considering the low payments they made to acquire that amount. With that said, I am sure they're not seeing the ROI they are hoping to see and will continue to hold out. They would maybe cash-out if they were in dire need of the $, but like most of us, we invest what we believe we can afford to lose and unless it hits a value worth cashing out, we won't cash out until that time. We were all informed about a great opportunity and we invested with the idea that we didn't want to miss out on this opportunity. I didn't want to be informed and not take a jump into this and find out that I missed something that I would be kicking myself for in years to come. I recall a great philospher which I remember from a philosophy class in college, I can not think of the person's name, but he stated something to this regard "It is in our best interest to believe in the heavens and also God if we must believe in both to have our souls granted to heaven. For if there is no god or heavens, we are not missing out by believing in him. However, if the heavens and God do exist and we do not believe in their existance we ourselves will miss out on the opportunity to go to heaven. Therefore, we should believe in God and the heavens to ensure we are granted entrance." That statement kind of holds true with this investment. We all believe it'll happen by taking the first step, "purchasing dinar", it may not come to what we hope it to be, but at least we know if it does come to be a great investment we didn't miss out. (Unless we sold off our dinar).

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Let me ask something..........According to this guys post, its fine and dandy for the dinar to go from $3.22 to $.0004 over night when Saddam reigned power, but its not ok for the dinar to go from $.0008 to $3.22 after they have reconstructed their government? Tell me how this makes any sense? It ok for those people in Iraq pre Saddam to have great wealth to only then be stripped of it over night when the dinar was devalued, but its not ok to replenish those people back to what they were before they lost everything once they reconstruct their government and country? Really?????

I think this guy is clueless.......

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A lower rate may seem more reasonable because of the amount of dinar it seems we all hold as a group. A lower rate RV of $0.37 will likely satisfy all dinar holders, and most would cash out at that rate in a heart beat. I view the $3.22+ RV rates as selling points when people mention it to their friends & family. This is what gets them interested in the dinar investment and hop on board. But, we have to consider so many factors are involved that none of us have solid intel, and no real facts to back up our claims. The dinar has increased in value since where it was last pegged at, but when we see the change, will it just be an increase, or an actual RV? Would I be surpised to see it hit over a $1? No, would I be shocked to see it hit above $3.22? Yes.. But not as shocked as one would think. Remember, Saddam was able to choose what his currency was worth and changed it several times. The UN did not respect that rate when he decided it was worth $3.22, when they believed the value was more in the $1-2 range. I think the $1-2 range is what we could see as a reality. Inflation is low, and with the price of oil, and debts being paid off, they'll likely be hitting a surplus soon. (Also, remember this, debts forgiven do not mean they don't have to pay, it means they are forgiven to delay their repayment...)

I can tell you right now that I would not and I'm sure most would not cash in the dinar if it was any lower than $1.00. Why do I say this? Because the value will still continue to go up over time and holding onto it until that happens would be the smart thing to do. Not only that, but the more people hold onto the dinar because of a "low" RV is not what the Iraqi government wants. They want the RV to be high enough that pretty much everyone will exchange it in as soon as possible. Just my opinion....

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I have been in this for over five years and have heard of a rv for each of the five years and no rv. I like you don't think there will be much of a rv if any this year and maybe not until 2012 to 2015 but like you I do think it will go up over time, but not to 3 or 4 dollars to a dinar like most people on this and other sites.

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