CBI Currency Auction 1/12/2011

[Doc31]

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1812)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 12-JAN-2011. The results were as follows:

DetailsNotesNumber of banks16

Auction price selling dinar / US$1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$-----

Amount sold at auction price (US$)168,841,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----

Total offers for buying (US$)168,841,000

Total offers for selling (US$)-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

Spot oil is up nearly $2 from yesterday morning

Spot Gold is up slightly and running in an $11 channel that it has been in since 4pm Monday

Zeroes ... Hey they finally updated the pdf file and included today's cash portion ... a novel idea as of late ... 1.65M on 168M ... nearing 1% ... still not in the 16 -21% (can't remember if these are the exact % but don't have time to look up but they are close ... sorry) of days prior to Oct 7. I'm calling this a near zero day.

Someone commented yesterday that this (zero/near zero cash days) was "not noteworthy" ... and perhaps they are right. Now, I don't think so ... after all if you total all of the cash portion of the auctions from Oct 7 until now you get a little over 26M ... folks the average cash portion was between 18M-26M PER DAY previously. Lets think this through. Are they hoarding IQD and USD or at least doing their best to hold onto as much as possible while al-Maliki drags this out past the "drop dead" dates set and already ignored (that would seem reasonable before an RI/RV)? Are they out of IQD as some have said? OR have they figured out another way to provide this influx demonstrated for years on the pdf file. Well, prior to Oct 7th is was part of their life blood of liquidity. As I demonstrated ... totaling over three months worth of the cash auction reveals that they have either decreased their three month NEED down to the equivalent of one day's total (actually 63:1 because there were weekends and MANY holidays in that three months) OR they HAVE another mechanism.

Now ... they continue to take small breaths of air through the reed ... not like they were doing before ... does this tell us that there isn't another mechanism OR are they employing a couple of strategies to provide themselves with what they need? So does that leave us with the other choices?

Here's my answer: I've told you from the beginning that I didn't understand it completely but it was something that I believe that we should keep an eye on. I haven't changed my mind ... while the aforementioned is worth consideration ... and possibly/probably other scenarios ... FRANKLY I BELIEVE THAT WE ARE OVERTHINKING THIS. I've told you previously that what I believe that it shows is NOT what Shabibi is thinking but WHEN he is thinking it. For sure, a massive deviation from 18M-26M daily is significant BUT ... in my view it is a piece of the puzzle ... nothing more ... and that is why I keep an eye on it.

If folks aren't interested that's your choice ... I'll keep an eye on it for my group ... no harm no foul.

Now that I have re-stated all that ... I have very little time left to write anything else.

I just saw a hard copy of Frank26's chat last night ... it's funny how there were folks already bashing him prior to it being published ... can you explain to me why you would spend any time at all reading/listening to bash ... I just don't get it. If you don't like him ... leave it alone for crying out loud.

He pointed out that al-Maliki pushed off the reading of the budget until Thursday and were likely to push it off again ... I concur ... it is exactly what I told my group when I saw the article yesterday. I mean have they ever lied to us and pushed off a date? ... lol ... however, what does the Kuwaiti Emir's visit bring with it Thursday? Maliki to go to Kuwait at end of the month? Looks like more questions than answers ... both from him and me!

The biggest thing he says (Cliff notes version) is that there are too many contract and other important dates in the near future to have them still with colored toilet paper ... additionally, Kuwait knows something ... I don't disagree ... they have met most every demand and DO continue to treat them as a prince ... was it $2.82? did it then slide to $.35 I don't know and neither do you. If you are not on the roller-coaster you are merely observing the ride and you have one more piece of info ... I didn't say intel. (Oh, in one paragraph the typist neglected to put a "M" after the number 1 ... meaning 1M IQD=$357,000 ... just a footnote not a commentary)

This is short and sweet:

Darline said the Emir of Kuwait will be in Baghdad tomorrow the 12th and they are having a shindig without us.... so will Hillarious be there - Maliki is going to Kuwait at the end of January to finalize something - YES says Darline they will have the MONEY TO PAY THEM - WOOO HOOO ...

Frank says we don't need the budget to release the rate at all... Frank thinks Maliki is getting the best rate possible for his country - the Shabibi rate he got over the weekend I believe was not pleasing to this aggressive leader for his country and in the still of the night we will see an RI - be still and see...

I must close this now ... let me leave you with this:

Some say opportunity knocks only once. That is not true. Opportunity knocks all the time, but you have to be ready for it. If the chance comes, you must have the equipment to take advantage of it.”

Louis L'Amour

Peace to all

Doc31

PS In re-reading it seems a bit terse or perturbed ... not so ... just in a hurry ... remember ... no coffee in days ... so play nice! ... lol

[lechesuerte]

Thanks Doc, you rock. I appreciate your efforts.

[pops]

Thanks as always Doc.

Sometimes on this ride it has been difficult to stay positive but I am now and have been for the past couple of weeks. I hope this is more than a gut feeling, but I think I'll be seeing you at the bank real soon.

[showmemodinar]

Doc, I for one really appreciate all your hard work and effort. I agree, if people don't understand the importance of your research than ask questions or just don't read - BUT - don't bash someone's hard work.

[Splatyfish]

Doc, you are one of the only posts I enjoy reading. When this RV's there are going to be many people that will have money for the very first time and will not know the proper way to invest it. You seem to be well adversed in the investment world. Would you be willing to share some ideas of what you are personally going to be doing with this new found wealth? I know myself and others would be so appreciative to get direction from you. Thanks.

[tevye02]

Thanks Doc! You gave me a better understanding of what you post, which I look forward to daily

[prettybaby]

Thank you

[krmayo]

Thank you Doc for all you do!

[gbrlgms]

THANKS DOC FOR YOUR HARD WORK I TRULY APPRECIATED, I HAVE LEARN FROM YOU ON FOLLOWING THE PATTERNS PLS DON'T STOP WHAT YOUR ARE DOING THANKS.

[Upgradable]

Your post is much appreciated, as always. I do have a question though about your thoughts on the budget being postponed yet again.

I swear I read in the article that the reason (or at least an excuse) for it's current postponment was due to copier problems, ie. the Xerox machine was broken. Can this possibly be a viable reason for postponement? Does Iraq only have one copier? I had to stop and read it again to make sure.

Can we fly someone in to fix the darned thing so they can at least get the first reading out of the way??

[jphillips]

Thank you Doc for taking the time out of your schedule to post this. It is informative and VERY useful in measuring the money flow. It would seem illogical for them to have a backdoor liquidity mechanism so I am on your boat in seeing this as a method to dry up IQD liquidity prior to RV. It is always just a hunch. I do have to say the sacrifice is apparent...having to do this without coffee for several days? Inhumane.

[kox]

Thanks Doc and yes, Frank and his group...we appreciate the view from you all...if anyone wants to bash..just skip it, there are plenty of us that appreicate your effort.

[wbuse984]

Thanks Doc, appreciated all the hard work...take care...drink some coffee man

[mlay901]

Thanks Doc!

[sneakey]

My biggest issue with that Frank post was that I didn't understand what they were trying to say.

Thanks for making it make sense for me.

[ThePhantomRider]

Doc, that was me yesterday, and it was a comment only because I didn't fully understand your train of thought and approach. The comment "not noteworthy" was incorrect now that I more fully understand the position and thank you for all the time and input you put in on this information..

I understood it originally as a zero day, minimal movement, nothing noteworthy, but I get it now...Thanks!

Much more palatable than "intel"

TPR

[BW3]

THANKS DOC! AS ALWAYS THANKS FOR THE NUMBERS!!!

NOT much news out there today.... That could mean something... But yes,, they could very well, push and push and push.....

Euro Rallies Most in Month Versus Dollar as Portugal Auction Demand Rises

[Williamjr]

Thanks Doc for all your work..continue all that you do to assist us all in this journey, its all greatly appreciated - even for those who are NOt able to follow the info its still a great teaching tool, so kudos to you!

[aferriss]

Thank you thank you, Doc!! As usual, always a fine job.

[BadCobra]

Hey Doc, thanks again for your diligence, I appreciate your analysis.

[seabee64]

As always a great post. Thanks very much Doc.

[Merlin]

Thanks Doc, As always you hit the mark, I think our trip on this rollercoaster ride is nearing an end soon, Maybe a few more ups and downs and maybe a few rolls left yet but I'm sure I see the lite at the end of this long tunnel

Thanks for all the hard work and time you put into this and my family and friends will follow you and your wisdom to the very end! Take Care and God Bless, Always.. GO RV... And I'll see you at the Bank!!!