Kaperoni’s thoughts -Dec 31st Is the RV close? 12/31/10

[Bumper64]

I am going to try and bring some sense to why we have not seen the RV as of today, Dec 31st, 2010.

We all have read the CBI articles in the past and were holding firm with the comments stating the small denominations will come out… “after the formation of the GOI directly” or the statement… “by the end of the year.”

Obviously that does not appear to be happening….though we still have a few hours left in 2010.

Those comments were made several months ago. Prior to the formation of the GOI or with a clear understanding of the timeframe needed to form and complete the GOI.

IMO this recent statement by Dr. Shabibi tells volumes of his intentions and should be analyzed….

For his part, Dr. Shabibi Iraqi Central Bank Governor that “the political crises and economic conditions are interrelated, with regard to economic conditions that require some sort of extrapolation, forecasting and policy formulation requires finding solutions to political crises and therefore, there is a link to a very large in terms of the causes of crises and their results and other matters relating to and only if the rest of the political crises fact any prediction of any economic planning will not be drafted without solving the political crisis associated with it.”

This article also surfaced the other day (from an economist) and had this interesting quote….

Approaching hour Declaration deletion of three zeros from the current currency (dinar) after the ripe intentions and goals and developed the initial plan may be finalized and the procedures and mechanisms the beginning of next year to be ready within the legal framework of the new Iraqi currency before being submitted to Parliament for approval.

Reviewing these two quotes its seems clear that Dr.Shabibi is stating that GOI and the economy go hand in hand. That without a complete GOI, there will be no economic planning (RV). In my opinion, the hold up is clear, the GOI is not complete and the agreements signed that bind this new GOI to a “power sharing” and “inclusive” government is not complete. A major factor in this is the position agreed to by both Maliki and Allawi called the National Strategic Policy Council. The second quote seems to imply beginning of 2011, but needs Parliament approval.

This new council seems to be at the verge of completion. Here is the article quote….

Iraqiya complete national policy council draft law

Thursday, December 30, 2010 10:43 GMT

Al Iraqiya List advisor Hani Ashour affirmed that the List has completed the national strategic policy council draft law after resolving pending issues with the National Alliance over some paragraphs.

Al Iraqiya will pass the draft law to Parliament for vote in the upcoming session on January 10, 2011, Ashour said.

The national strategic policy council will contribute with the government to setting up Iraq’s supreme policy on economic, security, social, political and foreign relations levels, he added.

One can see that we are close, though we may not get the RV Dec 31st, 2010…it appears that within a few weeks into 2011, we will have the GOI that Shabibi requires to then complete his task.

Kaperoni

I added some spacing to make it easier to read!!

[army03]

Great read and I hope everything falls into place in 2011 your hours before the new year.

[usndsd]

good post bumper

makes sense to me

[Dinar Holder]

Thanks bumper......

GO RV.........................

[powerpager]

Shoe Polish !!!

[JRooster]

Is there people really out there that invested into this that did not realize that the government of Iraq, is a huge part of the the whole rv process?!?!?! Seriously??

That to me is common sense? I have been trying to tell people that it is not going to happen tonight. (Here its already the New Year...I'm in Baghdad) The government has just been placed not even a month ago. I'm getting people telling me I'm wrong, the timeline doesnt make sense...does it not make sense to you beacause you do not want it to make sense, or are you just not understanding the tie between government and economics?? They are kinda bed mates

I believe it to be about another year before we see the rv, which I am fine with. I dont believe it to be $3 and up either. It would totally cap size the world economics if just one day the Iraqi Dinar is worth $3.70 was the last I read. I can see it getting to about 50 cents maybe at first. Which is still very good. Then the real roller coaster starts....to stay in for the long haul or jump out at 50 cents?? I believe it will get about as high, maybe, MAYBE a little higher than Kuwait, but it will not be a sudden event. It will have to be gradual.

Understand that I believe this government is heading in the right direction, but they have many mazes and mountains ahead, which will kind of prove as a test of will and strength to this newly formed government.

I am not trying to be a downer, we are all invested and want this to happen. I am just trying to let you see that this isnt an over-night investment. I just feel that if the only research you are doing on this investment is through blogs, chats and msg boards....you need to get out there and read. Do not ever make an investment without watching it very closely on your own. There are tons of word and information wizards out there out for there own means. The less you know, the weaker and the more succeptable you are to this what I call crud.

Be ready, I believe the real ride is going to be this year of 2011. This is when you will be getting pushed, pulled and the waters will be rocky. Understand the exchange rate is going to be affected by how many people are exchanging. Did anybody here the rumor aboout the US having 300 Trillion Dinar put in the Treasury? Bush's plan to pay for the war and the US debt? If this is true...oh man.

Stay strong and positive!!! This will happen, just not over night. And please do yourselves a favor...RESEARCH your investments!!!

Much Love and Have an Amazing 2011!!!

J

[Traconesu02]

Thanks for the post Bumper64

[ronscarpa]

Good Post Bumper (+1).....Thanks Kaperoni...well said & logical...!

RON

[VanessaL4100]

Is there people really out there that invested into this that did not realize that the government of Iraq, is a huge part of the the whole rv process?!?!?! Seriously??

That to me is common sense? I have been trying to tell people that it is not going to happen tonight. (Here its already the New Year...I'm in Baghdad) The government has just been placed not even a month ago. I'm getting people telling me I'm wrong, the timeline doesnt make sense...does it not make sense to you beacause you do not want it to make sense, or are you just not understanding the tie between government and economics?? They are kinda bed mates

I believe it to be about another year before we see the rv, which I am fine with. I dont believe it to be $3 and up either. It would totally cap size the world economics if just one day the Iraqi Dinar is worth $3.70 was the last I read. I can see it getting to about 50 cents maybe at first. Which is still very good. Then the real roller coaster starts....to stay in for the long haul or jump out at 50 cents?? I believe it will get about as high, maybe, MAYBE a little higher than Kuwait, but it will not be a sudden event. It will have to be gradual.

Understand that I believe this government is heading in the right direction, but they have many mazes and mountains ahead, which will kind of prove as a test of will and strength to this newly formed government.

I am not trying to be a downer, we are all invested and want this to happen. I am just trying to let you see that this isnt an over-night investment. I just feel that if the only research you are doing on this investment is through blogs, chats and msg boards....you need to get out there and read. Do not ever make an investment without watching it very closely on your own. There are tons of word and information wizards out there out for there own means. The less you know, the weaker and the more succeptable you are to this what I call crud.

Be ready, I believe the real ride is going to be this year of 2011. This is when you will be getting pushed, pulled and the waters will be rocky. Understand the exchange rate is going to be affected by how many people are exchanging. Did anybody here the rumor aboout the US having 300 Trillion Dinar put in the Treasury? Bush's plan to pay for the war and the US debt? If this is true...oh man.

Stay strong and positive!!! This will happen, just not over night. And please do yourselves a favor...RESEARCH your investments!!!

Much Love and Have an Amazing 2011!!!

J

This is the second time I've seen this in a thread. ? Thanks for sharing the info, as always bumper

Edited December 31, 2010 by VanessaL4100

[qzee]

Nobody on these forums talks about the bombings of the christians, the bombings of the police barracks and the ongoing political unrest in Iraq. I'm no expert on anything but medicine, but this concerns me. Any thoughts?

[djgabrielie]

Understand the whole Government cohesive involvement thing ... but what about a tradeable currency? What about the WTO, The IMF (basket of currencies), The Paris Club, The GCC, and major contracts for rebuilding held in the wings? You really want to believe it is because the decided to go on Holiday and didn't have enough small denominations for an RV to take place?

[youdontsay]

Good post JRooster, atleast you have a level head and are thinking clear. Thank you for that.

[mrparrot]

Ok, so no rv by the end of 2010.

Does the Paris Club Debt Reduction Program

play into this anywhere?

Will the forgiven 80% be reinstated?

Silly question;

Does it have to be officially announced to the

world to be considered done, or would it be

considered done if it was whispered to the IMF

on Friday night...?

"Ok, it's good to go, but don't say anything until Monday.

We want to tell the world ourselves...".

[DoD]

Nobody on these forums talks about the bombings of the christians, the bombings of the police barracks and the ongoing political unrest in Iraq. I'm no expert on anything but medicine, but this concerns me. Any thoughts?

Hey Doc, that's because most are Dinar Foums, and that's why the Dinar is talked about. I'm sure somewhere out there you can find a blog or forum that wants to discuss all that violence in

another country, heck we have more people killed in the US and just south of the border than they do in Iraq.

[pops]

Good post to get people talking. I don't know if you hit the wrong buuton or not but 300 trillion dinar seems a little far fetched, but I do beleive the US holds enough to pay for the war.

[demouser]

this article should be great because it was based from his opinion, not from so-called 'intel' like others.

[Bobbydee]

Thanks Bumper for the good read. God Bless SemPer Fi

[lost one]

Ok, so no rv by the end of 2010.

Does the Paris Club Debt Reduction Program

play into this anywhere?

Will the forgiven 80% be reinstated?

Silly question;

Does it have to be officially announced to the

world to be considered done, or would it be

considered done if it was whispered to the IMF

on Friday night...?

"Ok, it's good to go, but don't say anything until Monday.

We want to tell the world ourselves...".

I agree, They say they are formed yet their not yes no maybe, Who really knows, maybe just a horse and pony show for us and the world.

all I know is Iraq answers to no one or should I say the Rothchilds.............I'm sorry JROOSTER I don't agree with the slow rise in the rate theory, But I don't think it will be 4.00 RV... Maybe lite 2.00... this will give them a lot of room to expand without doing to much damage to the world. And at the same time allow them to reconstruct and kick start their economy....will see it won't take long, they have to much help.....It's like the richest guy on the block needs help with something, all the people on the block always will come and help because they think they will get something out of it....

[cgbrown]

Thanks Bumper for the post shaing: and have a GReat New YEar's Day and a Happy New Year.

[qzee]

Hey Doc, that's because most are Dinar Foums, and that's why the Dinar is talked about. I'm sure somewhere out there you can find a blog or forum that wants to discuss all that violence in

another country, heck we have more people killed in the US and just south of the border than they do in Iraq.

Yes, but the violence and instability affects the government and seems to me will have an effect on the RV, right?

[Upgradable]

I really like Kaperoni's interpretation of the situation, in that, no matter what Maliki says, this government is not yet ready to hit the ground running! There are still ministerial seats, and big ones at that, that have not been filled or are being contested. There is still the fact that the Iraqi constitution says that 25% of seats must be women, and we know that this has not happened. The Kurds are still contending they should keep their oil but Baghdad should pay their soldiers. The true power of Allawi's new committee is still up in the air. Now, what is "formed" about this government??

I completely agree that in order for Iraq to enter into the global economy that their currency must be addressed, but you don't put the lipstick on until you're ready to go. I think the GOI is still going to take a bit of time.

And I do think that qzee's comment about the continued violence is pertinent. Bombings are Iraqi citizens way of protesting. Here we write a letter to the editor, or contact our local TV station. If there is an attack in Iraq, you can be sure that it is one bloc or factions way of saying, "this pi$$e$ me off!" They are significant if this combined government is going to be able to successfully work together!

I also respect JRooster's perspective. He's in country, seeing what is happening. Not basing his opinion on multiple interpretations of badly translated news articles that are months (or years) old. Or, even worse, the type of "intel" we're subjected to by the self declared gurus and their cultish followings.

I encourage every person invested in this country (for that is truly what it is) to read for themselves, pull out the pieces of info that they find significant, and try to put together your own puzzle. We will all have probably different pictures, but they'll be much closer to the "truth" than if we buy into the velvet elvises we're getting shoved down our throats by the pumpers.

JMHO

[Upgradable]

I'd love to hear other people's thoughts on this.

[Tricia01]

Ok, so no rv by the end of 2010.

Does the Paris Club Debt Reduction Program

play into this anywhere?

Will the forgiven 80% be reinstated?

Silly question;

Does it have to be officially announced to the

world to be considered done, or would it be

considered done if it was whispered to the IMF

on Friday night...?

"Ok, it's good to go, but don't say anything until Monday.

We want to tell the world ourselves...".

These are my thoughts too. It might be done already, which would please the Paris Club and other such stakeholders, but not announced until Monday.

[JRooster]

Good post to get people talking. I don't know if you hit the wrong buuton or not but 300 trillion dinar seems a little far fetched, but I do beleive the US holds enough to pay for the war.

Yeah thats my bad, its in the billions (well rumored to be) Not a fact that I know of yet, but I do know that Bush was in Baghdad about a month 1/2 ago meeting with some peeps right before the release of his book. Which is more than I can say for our current prez who hasnt been here yet. He sends old man Biden in his stead.

I have always said, you dont have to support the reasons for us being here...but you have to support the men and women out here, they didnt have a choice in the matter. And to have such a cold shoulder from the president, just further supports my reasoning for really disliking the puppet, I mean man.

Sorry got off track there for a minute.

In synopsis thank you for pointing out the mental typo...

[JRooster]

I'd love to hear other people's thoughts on this.

Thank you for aknowledging me. Its nice to see somebody else thats not just in a mental state of skipping through magical gumdrop down pours and fields of starbursts(idk ha). I dont know about you, but growing up I was told to not accept candy from strangers. I place the same logic to investments. These boards are for you to possibly take ideas and views and go and research them yourself so you can make your own perspectives.

A lot of you here in these rooms are so blinded by the possibilty of being millionaire's that you would jump in the back of a van driven by a dirty clown if he had the right flavor candy.

No offense hahaha...just sayin

Edited January 2, 2011 by JRooster