STILL WAITING, BUT NOT FOR LONG!

[Charlie339]

Many people are now wondering “What’s the holdup on the RV?” Here’s my take on where we stand …

A few years ago, the Kurds received a verbal commitment from Maliki to implement their 5-item “wish list” in his governance. In exchange, the Kurds agreed to support him. Unfortunately, he didn’t come through on his promise, and now the Kurds distrust him powerfully.

Then, shortly after the March 17th elections this year, the Kurds presented a new list of 19 items they wanted implemented in writing by the new government. Allawi agreed, but Maliki said he “would negotiate.” Primarily, these are items related to the level of oil revenue sharing the Kurds will receive under their new Hydrocarbon Law, which is directly tied to the 2011 budget.

This past week, the 2011 budget has survived 2 of the 3 required readings in their Parliament before it can be formally voted on, and yesterday the Kurds decided to play their Ace: They walked out of the Parliament session, and late yesterday afternoon they announced that they were sending some delegates to Baghdad to meet with Maliki “in a few days” to demand that all of their 19 items be included in the 2011 budget.

The Kurds know that they are holding the better cards, because if Maliki can’t get their participation in the new government by December 25th, then he will have failed to fully form a government within the required 30 days, and he will have to step down. Under this scenario, Allawi will assume the Presidency, and he will have the constitutional 30 days to form a government.

Clearly, this is not an outcome that Maliki would want.

I predict that Maliki will cave in to the Kurdish demands, then the budget will be revised accordingly, and they will start the required 3 readings again, probably resulting in the revised budget being adopted by the full Parliament.

Since the budget will contain most of the key provisions to define their Hydrocarbon Law, it will be enacted shortly thereafter.

At that point, Iraq will have a fully-formed government, a ratified 2011 budget, and their Hydrocarbon Law on the books. And this is when Shabibi will pull the RV trigger.

These events will take a few more days to occur, but not many – fortunately for us, Maliki has a hard deadline of December 25th to have the government fully in place.

I don’t think it will be much longer for us!

[ReturnToGod]

A very plausible analysis; thank you for posting.

[djwebby]

Already done i think.

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/4/204107/

aghdad, Dec. 21 (AKnews) - An MP from the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition (KBC) said on Monday evening that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki officially signed the Kurdish demands paper before submitting his government formation to the presidency of parliament.

Mahmoud Othman told AKnews that al-Maliki signed the paper that contains the KBC’s conditions of participation in the federal government without objecting to any of its paragraphs.

Speaker of Parliament Osama Najafi said at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that parliament will vote on the cabinet formation on Tuesday, noting that Maliki had submitted the government program and his list of new ministers.

The 19-paragraph paper issued by the KBC as a precondition of their participation in the central government includes a demand that article 140 of the Iraqi constitution is implemented without further delay – resolving territorial disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region over Mosul, Kirkuk and other border areas.

Another matter of concern in the paper is the status of the oil deals signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) with foreign companies; contracts that Baghdad has maintained are not legal.

Kurdish MP Saeed Rasul Khoshnaw said on Monday that the KBC has been granted a deputy Primer Minister position and five ministerial portfolios in Maliki’s government.

Reported by Yaser Ali

[EBJNYC]

Many people are now wondering “What’s the holdup on the RV?” Here’s my take on where we stand …

A few years ago, the Kurds received a verbal commitment from Maliki to implement their 5-item “wish list” in his governance. In exchange, the Kurds agreed to support him. Unfortunately, he didn’t come through on his promise, and now the Kurds distrust him powerfully.

Then, shortly after the March 17th elections this year, the Kurds presented a new list of 19 items they wanted implemented in writing by the new government. Allawi agreed, but Maliki said he “would negotiate.” Primarily, these are items related to the level of oil revenue sharing the Kurds will receive under their new Hydrocarbon Law, which is directly tied to the 2011 budget.

This past week, the 2011 budget has survived 2 of the 3 required readings in their Parliament before it can be formally voted on, and yesterday the Kurds decided to play their Ace: They walked out of the Parliament session, and late yesterday afternoon they announced that they were sending some delegates to Baghdad to meet with Maliki “in a few days” to demand that all of their 19 items be included in the 2011 budget.

The Kurds know that they are holding the better cards, because if Maliki can’t get their participation in the new government by December 25th, then he will have failed to fully form a government within the required 30 days, and he will have to step down. Under this scenario, Allawi will assume the Presidency, and he will have the constitutional 30 days to form a government.

Clearly, this is not an outcome that Maliki would want.

I predict that Maliki will cave in to the Kurdish demands, then the budget will be revised accordingly, and they will start the required 3 readings again, probably resulting in the revised budget being adopted by the full Parliament.

Since the budget will contain most of the key provisions to define their Hydrocarbon Law, it will be enacted shortly thereafter.

At that point, Iraq will have a fully-formed government, a ratified 2011 budget, and their Hydrocarbon Law on the books. And this is when Shabibi will pull the RV trigger.

These events will take a few more days to occur, but not many – fortunately for us, Maliki has a hard deadline of December 25th to have the government fully in place.

I don’t think it will be much longer for us!

SMOKIN' post -- slammin' -- its all good !!!!!

[Danneedsrvnow]

These events will take a few more days to occur, but not many – fortunately for us, Maliki has a hard deadline of December 25th to have the government fully in place.

I thought Maliki's Government was already complete & in place as of Dec. 21st! Am I missing something?

Please explain........thanks

Dan

[jbbdolphins]

It is hard to pinpoint exactly what is holding up an RV/R. First we heard it was gov was not formed, then China, Then Kuwait, Then HCL, then the Sunnis, then the Kurds, next I expect the "fat lady" is having liposuction! It all boils down to this, it will happen when it happens, noone is privy to any info that can predict the future of when and how much the RV will be. Every day brings us closer to this goal and I hope sooner than later. Happy Holidays to all!

[Geo58]

I wish it would be before Xmas.