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CBI Currency Auction 10/18/2010


Doc31
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Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1757)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 18-OCT-2010. The results were as follows:

Details Notes

Number of banks 14

Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----

Amount sold at auction price (US$) 127,910,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----

Total offers for buying (US$) 127,910,000

Total offers for selling (US$) -----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

spot oil~$81.75 (average)

spot gold $1350.50

Check the the attachments ... they are the CBI Foreign Exchange Auctions ... you'll notice that there have been no cash transactions in 12 days (counting weekends). This duration is unprecedented. I checked and while there are a few SINGLE "0" cash days sporadically (6 and 8 months apart) there are only 3 major occurences ... November 2009 when we saw the $1.49 posted ... the June 15th date and now.

Interestingly enough there was no April 15th date which most have held (me included) was THE RI/RV day which the Iraqis intentionally chose to miss ... apparently, Shabibi had no intention at all of RI/RVing then (or he knew that the GOI was not going to be seated by then).

I am more convinced than ever that June 15th was the day and it is why the other countries and companies responded so demonstrably.

Both oil and gold are off a bit from last weeks highs which I believe creates the "perfect storm" for Iraq to RI/RV.

I am also a fan of Zantac's reasoning that you won't see a sale 48 hrs (or longer) prior to RI/RV ... it only makes sense!

While I am not perfectly clear on the significance of the "0" cash sale (because an auction did take place) ... it's occurrence is not only rare ... but when sequential dates are "cashless" ... meaning wire transfers only ... it appears to be screaming intel.

For those of you who don't know how to read the pdf file ... column

1)year (yes, I had to insert the year for you)

2)# of auction (yes, this differs from the announcement # shown on the post above)

3)date

4)Market price (a whole different kettle of fish for another post)

5)auction price (the one number that we are familiar with and ready to watch plummet like a stone)

6)volume in USD (multiply the number times 1000 to get the actual volume)

7)cash

8)transfer via wire (volume minus cash times 1000)

I wish I had the background and the time to pursue this properly ... it seems to have the potential to show us ... NOT what Shabibi is thinking but WHEN Shabibi is thinking it!

Nowwwwwwwwwwwww ... perhaps it is merely an anomaly ... people lie ... numbers too when the books have been "cooked" but generally numbers tend to give you a clearer picture of what is real and what isn't ... LGraham will tell you that I'm all about the math.

Perhaps someone with international currency and economy experience can expound upon my findings ... affirming or shooting them down.

Regardless ... Peace to all

Doc31

DV won't let me post all jpg's at once NOR in order ... sooooooooooo I'll post the most current in a post following this one! ... Sorry

the pdf is at http://cbi.iq/documents/CBI_FOREIGN_EXCHANGE_AUCTIONS.pdf

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Thnaks Doc. I too am all about the numbers, but as you stated we also have to be careful with numbers to ensure and accuracy and validity. Like you stated people use and transform numbers often times to tell us what we want to hear or what they want to say. Good breakdown of chart for newbies or those unfamiliar.Thanks for the additional info! GO RV in 2010!!!

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I 100% agree with you and thougth the same when this happened last year and we saw the jump to $1.49. To me...this is much more important and more real than what any "guru" claims to know. I applaud you for laying it out so well for others to read.. something I am too lazy to do myself.

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Brilliant Doc31

This is the way we should all consider posting, explained perfectly for the ones that may not be sure what there reading & as always spot on information +1, just wish I could add more :D

Thanks for the mention too, much appreciated B)

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Brilliant Doc31

This is the way we should all consider posting, explained perfectly for the ones that may not be sure what there reading & as always spot on information +1, just wish I could add more :D

Thanks for the mention too, much appreciated B)

I couldn't agree more Zantac (+) As for you Doc, ......You just keep getting better all the time. I started a thanks to you over in rumors. With the recognition you have earned. Keep it up my friend!

Peace,

Lgraham

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