Someone explain this to me please.

[cranman]

Why does everyone think they are not going to LOP?  They are literally saying they are going to do it.  They just don't know if it will be 2 or 3 zeroes.

It is the perfect way to handle all the Trillions of floating dinar outside the bank.  That is the reason the 2 currencies will exist side by side for a determined amount of time. When the time period for the exchange period comes, you will be able to use the 25000 and the 25 dinar note to purchase items and services. Both will have the same value. That is the reason the smaller notes and coins will be able to be used at that time.  It will be difficult for stores at first but they will get it done.

 

Initially the LOP won't give them any more purchasing power UNTIL the exchange from old to new notes is completed.  At that time, they can, and probably will, give the currency a new value/ exchange rate. 

 

There is no way, in my opinion they can RV with that much dinar floating around. It doesn't matter what the US is holding in Dinar.  It doesn't matter that a president said the war would pay for itself.  Fractional banking doesn't cover it.

 

Someone needs to explain it to me mathematically and nicely. LOL 

[KristiD]

Yes, but the LOP is a 1000 times (100,000%) devaluation first.  And US$.76 is a respectable rate, which is important for Iraq to have.  So once they have that, they no longer need a big RV.  Like they just said, they will probably let the rate slowly rise up through market forces until it hits their historical US$3+ rate or possibly more.  If Iraq LOPs now, that takes away the opportunity for the big RV we've all been hoping for. 

 

But you have to realize that Iraq CANNOT ANNOUNCE A REVALUATION TO A HIGHER AMOUNT IN ADVANCE!!  If they did, everyone who learned about that would be scooping up IQD all around the world.  Inside Iraq, the people wouldn't spend their dinar because they know it would be more valuable in the near future.  The black market rate of dinar would skyrocket.  That would horribly destabilize Iraq's economy.  So even if Iraq is planning to add more purchasing power (RV), they are forced to deny it.  They must protect the stability of their economy.  It's a tricky thing to greatly increase the value of a country's currency (RV) and you definitely don't want to try it during a financial crisis with a destabilized economy.  So, as many people here on DV have said over the years, expect Iraq to deny they plan to RV (adding value to their currency) right up until the day they RV.

 

The dinar community members that believe an RV is eminent have one of the following 2 justifications for that.

1)     As I just said, Iraq has to lie and say they’re NOT planning to RV to avoid destabilizing their economy.  While this is totally true, it does not prove that Iraq is planning to RV now.

 

2)     There will be an in-country redenomination, LOP, with no increase in purchasing power for people in Iraq.  BUT in other countries there will be an RV, with a big increase in purchasing power.  But that’s not how currency works!  There has to be one stated value for the currency, no matter where it’s located.  A country can’t assign a value that is 1000 times higher in some countries than it is in another country. 

And why would the government of Iraq ever want to do that?  The IQD is only acceptable as payment in Iraq, so why would Iraq increase the value by over 1,000 times (100,000%) for dinar holders in other countries who can’t even use IQD to support Iraq’s economy?  Why would they choose to let foreigners make a 100.000% profit (1000 times return)?  What reason could possibly justify them doing that while doing nothing for their own economy in Iraq?  Plus, I’d imagine the Iraqis would burn down the government buildings if their government screwed them like that and let foreign investors get rich while the Iraqis don’t.

 

This upcoming, announced, redenomination (LOP) is a HUGE decrease in value.  Dropping the 3 zeros is a 1000 time devaluation or 100,000%.  Iraq is positioning to be a big player in the global financial system again.  Devaluing their currency by 100,000% is typically done with countries facing massive hyperinflation trying to avoid economic collapse.  Iraq doesn’t have an inflation problem and they’re not facing economic collapse, they’re in a growth phase.  So maybe they can pull off just a straight denomination.  But it’s still a massive devaluation of currency, despite them claiming it’s only a simple accounting procedure to make record-keeping easier.  So I think it will be perceived negatively by at least some people around the world. So I’m still hopeful Iraq will RV at the same time it issues new notes.

 

The truth is that nobody, except those in Iraq preparing to change their dinar, knows what their plan is.  But I see only 2 possibilities.

 

1)     Iraq will actually do the RV at the same time they issue the new 3 zero notes.  If they do this, I think the rate’s likely to be US$.76.  That’s the rate they’ve been prepping their people to prepare for.  And it’s1000 times (100,000%) more than the current value of US$.00076 (1/1310).  That’s a HUGE increase.  So I really doubt they’ll bump it to US$3+ because that’d be a 4000 time, a 400,000% increase.  The bigger the increase, the harder it will be to stabilize that higher rate.  Doing a lower increase is safer with less risk of them not being able to maintain it.  Iraq is rewriting their financial future.  RVing at US$.76 is a very respectable rate.  So I think it’s a wise move to start low since it’s easier to maintain that rate, compared to starting near the top and struggling to maintain that higher rate.   

If Iraq does RV at the same time they issue the new currency, I’ll cash out all of my new dinar at that rate.

2)     Iraq will just do the LOP, and only the LOP, changing all the 3 zero notes to no-zero notes with no increase in purchasing power (with no RV).  This would give Iraq a currency worth US$.76, certainly respectable to the world, which is something they do need to have.  Then, as Iraq recently said, they’d let the market gradually increase the rate back to its expected old historically rate of US$3+. 

This would mean no wealth for us.  In fact, it would be a loss.  But having Iraq do a LOP instead of the RV was always a possibility, and it was the main risk of investing in dinar.  So it’s a real possibility.  If people on average paid US$1000 per 1,000,000 million dinar, that will convert to 1000 new notes worth US$760.  That’s a US$240 loss for every million people now hold.  Sure it can increase to US$3 in probably a few years or maybe sooner.  But that’s only US$3000 for every million people hold now, so they’re only tripling their original investment and not receiving the generational wealth many of us have hoped for. 

If only a LOP happens, I’ll take my loss and move whatever I get into crypto and precious metals.  And at least I’ll get a loss carry forward to use to offset future investment income.
 

Regarding how much currency is outside Iraq, yes it’s a lot.  But Iraq is cracking down on exchanging currency in Iraq and people will have to justify where they got that dinar.  Someone in Iraq reported Iraq plans to invalidate the stolen dinar they recover from corrupt politicians that are being arrested now and they’re finding trillions of dinar hidden in the walls of their homes.  I halfway expect Iraq to try to ask other countries to also validate that people cashing in IQD got them legally, if that’s possible.

 

Also, I think the window for trading in old IQD for the new, no-zero IQD will be short, probably no more than 90 days, maybe even less.  The Mideast has a lot of problems with Iran and Israel bombing other countries.  Not everyone will be able to trade in their IQD.  Many countries around the world have other problems: dinar holders may have died or are sick and not keeping up with dinar news.  there’s so much crime everywhere and a lot of people’s lives have been uprooted so they're not keeping up with dinar news, and a lot of people have health issues from the covid vaccines, too, also some countries don’t deal in IQD and people living there will need to travel to other countries to cash in but may not be able to.

 

So I think a potential requirement of proving you hold IQD legally, and a short trade in window, coupled with many people’s inability to trade in their dinar before the window closes, will at least decrease some of the outstanding dinar that will be traded in for the new new notes.

 

But if Iraq doesn't do an RV concurrently, at the same time they issue and validate the new no-zero notes worth US$.76, there is no chance of them doing a big RV later and making us wealthy.  At best you'll get a single digit return months or years after the 1000-times-decrease-in-value LOP happens.  The big RV can only happen when the rate is ridiculously low like it is now. 

[cranman]

I'm just refraining for now on making any comment on what is going to happen. I've explained my view and people don't want to hear it.  I'm not mad. There is a lot of emotions flowing around here and they are entitled to their feelings and opinions.   I can be a bit overbearing, but my background has made my skin thick, my emotions raw and my ability to accept reality, even when bad, capable.  It can rub people the wrong way.  I may never comment again until this event happens or maybe I will when concrete evidence dictates out final ending.  What I will admit is that I cannot stand people BSing themselves.  There is a lot of evidence of that here on the forum.

 

For some people, this is their final chance at having financial success and security and they don't like people making negative comments even if they know they are true. Some people here don't understand the situation or some comments others make and upvote comments that say exactly what we don't want them to say. They are either afraid to ask questions or don't know what questions to ask.   Let's face it, some people here are pretty rude and or cocky making it a hostile forum.

 

Others on the forum are getting excited and literally upvoting and liking the LOP articles but don't realize it.  They make statements as is if they know exactly what is going to happen based on articles, yet in the next breath, the same poster will say "don't believe what they say but what watch what they do."  They are contradicting themselves.  Iraq has done nothing yet. They haven't done anything in 23 years except raise the exchange rate once. What is there to watch?  Posters here literally say Iraq and CBI will never let us know what they are going to do right up until they do it.  Maybe Mountain Goats inside CBI contact will let us know beforehand.  Lol

 

One day they the gurus are stupid because it doesn't fit the desired narrative and yet the next day, they believe the same guru and say the guru is making some sense.  It has literally happened here the past few days. It's crazy.

 

I stand by all my posts and analysis because I don't think this is a cryptic event.

 

Hopefully everyone else is right and I am wrong.  Time will tell.

[umbertino]

 

 

 

Thanks cranman....I do concur with you on your stance

[cranman]

2 hours ago, umbertino said:

 

 

 

Thanks cranman....I do concur with you on your stance

Ah! Umbertino my friend! 

Always a pleasure.

I hope you are doing well.

[umbertino]

14 hours ago, cranman said:

Ah! Umbertino my friend! 

Always a pleasure.

I hope you are doing well.

 

 

Thanks cranman...Doing well so far excluding the unbelievable heat....But that's ok...

 

Hope you're fine yourself....Ciao