Al-Zaidi Is Close To Announcing His Government.

[Luigi1]

Here's some articles of Iraqi  geo-political & economic interests...

Direct From The SANDBOX Report.

The top stories are:

-Al-Zaidi Is Close To Announcing His Government.

-Iraq's economy remains fragile & vulnerable.

-Frist Baghdad-Erbil meet with PM Zaidi on a high note.

Treat as rumors.  Not verified.  Your opine.

 

 

 

Al-Zaidi Is Close To Announcing His Government: Internal Consensus, Int'l Openness & Escalating Iranian Concern.

ARTICLE:  Monte Carlo Int'l Radio reported that Ali al-Zaidi, who is tasked with forming the Iraqi government, informed the Coordination Framework forces that his government formation is ready in preparation for presenting it to Parliament next week, in a move that indicates the political scene is nearing resolution after a period of intensive consultations.

 

According to the sources, the anticipated government is heading towards broad participation that includes various political parties, with a notable presence of factions within the ministerial formation, reflecting an attempt to achieve internal balance & contain the various active forces.

 

In the same context, information indicated that there was no American veto on al-Zaydi’s ministerial choices, in exchange for clear pledges regarding dealing with the armed factions file, which may pave the way for a more stable relationship between Baghdad & Washington during the next stage.

 

In contrast, Iranian circles expressed concern about the extent of American & Western support that al-Zaidi enjoys, considering that this may affect the nature of the political balances within Iraq.

 

These developments come at a sensitive time, as the Iraqi public awaits the results of the new government formation and its ability to meet internal demands and maintain balance in regional and international relations.

 

Fragile & Vulerable.

ARTICLE:  The Fragility Of The Iraqi Economy Is Exacerbated By The Repercussions Of The Iran-Iraq War & The Closure Of The Strait Of Hormuz.

 

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar stated that the Iraqi economy is the most fragile among the countries affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure crisis, due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues, which constituted about 86.3% of the Budget revenues in 2024.

 

She pointed out that Iraq also depends on the passage of the majority of its imports, both food & non-food, through the Strait, making it vulnerable to direct impacts in the event of a disruption to navigation, amid existing economic & social challenges, including an unemployment rate of about 15.5% & a poverty rate of nearly 17.5%.

 

She added that any disruption to shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would quickly affect the government’s ability to finance public spending & implement its development plans, with concerns about delayed salary payments & rising commodity prices in local markets, further straining citizens’ purchasing power.

 

Al-Zaidi The Mediator.

ARTICLE:  Al-Zaidi Offers To Mediate Between Iran & America To Resolve The Ongoing Conflict.

 

PM-designate Ali al-Zaidi received a phone call from the Iranian President, who congratulated him on his official appointment to form the new government. 

 

Both sides agreed to exchange visits during the next phase. 

 

Al-Zaydi affirmed Iraq’s support for the diplomatic path & the adoption of dialogue to resolve disputes & contain crises, noting Baghdad’s ability to play a mediating role between Iran & the US. 

 

The Mediator In The Room: President Barzani Comes To Baghdad With More Than Erbil's Demands.

ARTICLE:  In Baghdad, governments are not born from ballot boxes alone; they emerge from a long chain of understandings, guarantees & mutual anxieties & it was into this chain that Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani pressed his weight during a two-day visit to the capital that, in its timing & the breadth of its meetings, amounted to something more deliberate than protocol.

 

On the surface, the visit followed a familiar pattern: a Kurdish leader arrives in Baghdad ahead of a new government cycle, reaffirms constitutional principles & returns to Erbil.

 

But the political moment it landed in was anything but routine. I raq's government formation process is unfolding under simultaneous pressure from an unresolved regional conflict, Washington's recalibrating posture toward Baghdad, Tehran's calculations about the next Iraqi cabine & a set of Erbil-Baghdad disputes —oil, salaries, Budget Allocations, the status of disputed territories under Article 140— that have not left the negotiating table in years.

 

Within the first hours of his arrival, Barzani met with leaders of the Shiite ruling Coordination Framework, including State of Law head, Nouri al-Maliki, caretaker PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, al-Hikma (Wisdom) Movement leader Ammar al-Hakim, then with PM-designate Ali Falah al-Zaidi & leaders of the Sunni Nat'l Political Council.

 

The agenda moved from government formation to oil revenue sharing, salary arrears, the Federal Budget & the necessity of insulating Iraq from regional escalation —a range that reflected not a courtesy call but a substantive attempt to shape the parameters of what comes next.

 

Official statements from the meetings emphasized the need for a government "commensurate with the challenges of the current phase," capable of meeting the demands of Iraq's constituent communities while resolving outstanding Erbil-Baghdad disputes on a constitutional basis. (Oil & Gas Law/HCL)  Barzani also reaffirmed Kurdistan's readiness to support the new government's formation.

 

Testing The Ground:

Kurdish politician Abd al-Salam Barwari described the visit as "a new positive development for breaking the tensions that accompanied the post-presidential election phase" —tensions that had been building since the KDP staked a claim to the Iraqi presidency as a matter of established political entitlement, only to find Sunni & Shiite coalition leaders divided between rival Kurdish candidates, with some backing the PUK's nominee, Nizar Amedi, over Fuad Hussein, one of the KDP's most senior figures.

 

Barwari was careful to characterize Barzani's meetings as exploratory rather than conclusive— closer to preliminary consultations for testing positions & exchanging views before the moment of decision than to a finalized political settlement.

 

Speaking to Shafaq News, Barwari pointed to al-Zaidi's recent visit to Erbil, where the PM-designate met separately with Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani, President Nechirvan Barzani, PM Masrour Barzani & Patriotic Union of Kurdistan head, Bafel Talabani, as evidence that the Kurdistan Region's position is being treated as a structural variable in the government formation calculus, not an afterthought.

 

The KDP's weight in that calculus is concrete: the party secured over one million votes in November's parliamentary elections, the highest total of any single party nationwide, translating into 26 seats in parliament, making it a bloc no government formation can ignore mathematically.

 

Political circles in Baghdad read that visit as an attempt to avoid repeating the crises that plagued previous governments' relationships with the Region from the outset.

 

Researcher in political affairs Suhad al-Shammari offered a broader frame, noting that the current government formation is unfolding in conditions meaningfully different from previous cycles, with a PM-designate navigating simultaneously between rebuilding trust among political forces, managing divisions within each community & arranging a working relationship with the Kurdistan Region that does not begin in confrontation.

 

Barzani's visit, in her assessment, signals Kurdistan's readiness to “engage constructively,” though she stopped short of predicting specific outcomes, describing the visit's likely contribution as “bringing positions closer rather than resolving the underlying disputes.”

 

That picture from the meetings said more than any statement. In one session with leaders of the Sunni National Political Council, Barzani sat at the center flanked by prominent Sunni figures, including rivals Khamis al-Khanjar & Mohammed al-Halbousi, a composition that appeared to summarize the visit's function.

 

He was not present solely as Erbil's representative but as someone operating in the grey space between adversaries, attempting to anchor a proposition: that the next government cannot be born from an internal Shiite understanding alone, nor from an isolated distribution of positions, but from a broader equilibrium that includes Kurds, Sunnis & Shiites within a single political architecture.

 

Both sides agreed that the new government must prioritize services & reconstruction & that dialogue among political forces must be the entry point for resolving crises rather than a formality that follows them.

 

Files That Never Leave The Table:

Political analyst Ali al-Baydar situated the visit within a structural argument, telling Shafaq News that the issue is less about individual political figures than about the prevailing political culture & that the next government will largely be a continuation of the Coordination Framework's internal balances, with the variable being how Baghdad manages its relationship with Erbil rather than whether that relationship changes fundamentally.

 

Al-Baydar assessed al-Zaidi as someone disinclined toward escalation with the Region or toward unilateral decisions against it, suggesting the new PM-designate may offer more room for addressing outstanding files within constitutional frameworks than his predecessors, while leaving open whether that room translates into resolved disputes.

 

Hussein al-Kinani, head of al-Hadaf Center for Studies, noted to Shafaq News that Barzani's meetings with al-Zaidi fall within the standard pattern of coalition-building that precedes every new government cycle, but that their substantive content centers on concrete unresolved files: the Federal Budget, oil exports, oil and non-oil revenues & the degree to which both Erbil & Baghdad have honored previous agreements.

 

Those files carry weight beyond the political. Salaries in the Kurdistan Region have become a recurring living crisis for the population.

 

Oil has become the permanent headline of the constitutional & financial dispute between Erbil & Baghdad, a dispute sharpened in 2023 when the Int'l Chamber of Commerce in Paris ruled that Turkiye must pay Iraq approximately $1.5 billion for breaching the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline agreement by allowing unauthorized Kurdish oil exports, halting loading & export operations through the pipeline & significantly impacting the Region's revenues.

 

The Budget, renegotiated in cycles, has exposed the fragility of arrangements that both sides treat as temporary. Taken together, they make Barzani's visit an early test of whether the incoming government intends to manage these crises as it finds them or move toward closing them, a distinction that matters more to the Region's population than to the political class on either side.

 

Al-Zaidi is operating under time pressure, constitutionally required to present his cabinet within 30 days & aware that passing the government will require more than a numerical parliamentary majority; it will require understandings that ensure Kurdish & Sunni participation within an arrangement that no party feels excluded from.

 

Barzani's visit, in this reading, functions as an attempt to produce a dual political guarantee: an assurance to Erbil that the incoming Baghdad will not revert to the language of financial pressure & punitive measures & an assurance to Baghdad that the Region will be a source of governmental stability rather than a recurring source of tension.

 

The details of ministerial portfolios and the distribution of positions also remain subject to ongoing negotiation.  What Barzani's visit makes visible is that the contest over the next government is not only about who enters the cabinet, but about the shape of the state that cabinet will manage, the boundaries of the relationship between center & Region & Iraq's capacity to hold its internal arrangements together in a region changing faster than its political class is moving to keep pace.

 

The Bill Comes Due:

Three baseline conditions Barzani wanted to stress before the new government takes shape: genuine partnership in decision-making, constitutional rather than provisional solutions to the outstanding files & Iraq's insulation from the currents of regional escalation.

 

Whether those conditions become structurally embedded in the next government or remain aspirational language in post-meeting statements is the question the visit leaves open.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.

 

 

[Luigi1]

Here's another article of regional interests...Iran continues to attack US forces while US heeds to the ceasefire...

 

 

 

Why Iran Views The US As Weak & Defeatable.

ARTICLE:  Iran attacked US forces over ten times since ceasefire without triggering any US response.

 

While The Ceasefire Agreement did not hold.  Gen Dan Caine says Iran attacked US forces more than 10 times, all 'below the threshold' of restarting combat.

 

A fragile ceasefire between the US & Iran is holding despite continued attacks, as President Donald Trump announced a pause in naval escort operations to allow negotiations to continue — while warning that failure to reach a deal would result in a significantly escalated bombing campaign.

 

Trump said the pause in Project Freedom — the US mission to guide commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — is intended to give negotiators time to finalize what he described as a potential "complete & final agreement" with Iran, while maintaining that the US naval blockade would remain in place.

[Luigi1]

Here's another article of GCR interests...UAE increases oil output driving prices downward...

 

 

 

Oil Supply Surge Signals Shift: UAE Output Moves & OPEC Increase Point to Lower Energy Prices.

ARTICLE:  Rising global production & policy signals suggest potential relief in fuel costs while reshaping energy market dynamics.

 

OVERVIEW (KEY POINTS):

Global energy markets are reacting to signals of a potential increase in oil supply, driven by production moves from major producers & policy direction in key exporting nations.  This is happening now as officials highlight higher output expectations from OPEC members & record US production, suggesting a shift toward greater supply availability.  Key players include the US, OPEC nations, & the UAE, all influencing the balance between oil supply, pricing & global inflation trends.  The broader implication is significant: if supply increases materialize, energy prices could stabilize or decline, easing inflation pressures across the global economy.

 

KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

1. OPEC Signals Increased Production.  Supply outlook is shifting.

-OPEC indicating plans to raise oil output levels.

-Move aimed at stabilizing markets and meeting global demand.

2. UAE Production Strategy Draws Attention.  Output expectations are rising.

-UAE positioned to expand oil production capacity.

-Increased supply could influence global pricing benchmarks.

3. U.S. Oil Production Hits Record Levels.  Domestic output remains strong.

-US maintaining record crude production levels.

-Reinforces position as a leading global energy supplier.

4. Market Expectations Shift Toward Oversupply.  Supply-demand balance may   change.

-Analysts watching for potential excess supply conditions.

-Increased production could place downward pressure on prices.

5. Inflation Relief Potential Emerges.  Energy costs may ease broader pressures.

-Lower oil prices could reduce fuel & transportation costs.

-Potential to moderate global inflation trends.

 

WHY IT MATTERS:

This development highlights a key dynamic: energy supply levels directly influence inflation & economic stability.  If oil supply increases significantly, it could reverse recent price spikes, helping stabilize markets & easing pressure on consumers & businesses.  For policymakers, lower energy prices would provide room to adjust or slow aggressive monetary tightening, improving economic flexibility.  At the system level, this signals a possible shift from energy-driven inflation toward stabilization, which could impact global financial conditions.

 

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS:

-Lower energy costs can strengthen import-dependent currencies.

-Purchasing power may improve as fuel prices decline.

-Reduced inflation pressure stabilizes exchange rates.

-Commodity currencies may face mixed impacts depending on price direction.

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET:

Pillar 1: Energy Price Stabilization.

An increase in global oil supply could ease one of the biggest drivers of recent inflation & economic instability.

Pillar 2: Shift in Energy Market Power.

Rising US output & expanded production from key nations signal a move toward a more competitive & diversified energy landscape.

 

CONCLUSION:

The prospect of increased oil production from major players introduces a potential turning point for global energy markets.  If supply continues to rise, it could lead to lower fuel prices, easing inflation and providing relief across multiple sectors of the economy.

While uncertainties remain, the direction suggests a shift toward greater supply availability and reduced price pressure.

When energy supply expands, the ripple effects can stabilize economies & reshape financial conditions worldwide.