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Iran protests complicate the "caliphate" and anticipate the positions of celebrities and clerics


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The New York Times: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's condition deteriorates after surgery
 

Baghdad - people  

The American newspaper "New York Times" said that the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is suffering from illness and his health has recently deteriorated, as he is staying in bed under the observation of doctors.  

  

 

  

The newspaper, quoting 4 informed sources, confirmed that the Iranian leader canceled all his public activities last week, due to his serious illness, and is now resting in bed under the supervision of a team of doctors.  

  

One of the sources explained that Khamenei, 83, underwent surgery last week, due to a blockage in the intestine, after he suffered from severe stomach pain and a high temperature.  

  

According to the sources, Ali Khamenei is currently under medical observation around the clock, as his condition was considered "critical" last week, but it has improved and he is currently resting in bed, but the doctors remained concerned about his health.  

  

Last week, Khamenei's office canceled all its meetings, including an important annual meeting with the Assembly of Experts, which chooses a successor after his death, and the guide was so ill that he could not sit, according to the sources.  

  

Iranian reports previously indicated that there is still uncertainty about the health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his continued absence from any activity.  

  

Earlier, a member of Iran's Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hashemzadeh Harisi, said, "Members of the Assembly of Experts did not meet the leader for his convenience and not to waste his time," fueling speculation about his deteriorating health.  

  

Since 2014, Khamenei has been suffering from health problems. He underwent prostate cancer surgery, and his appearance began to decrease on occasions.  

  

And Iranian media had previously warned against bequeathing the succession of the Iranian leader, to his son Mojtaba Khamenei.  

  

Over the past years, many speculations have spread in Iran in political and media circles, about the possibility of Mojtaba Khamenei assuming the position of his father.  

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2 hours ago, screwball said:

He has passed away...end of Iran and a new Iran will emerge with a stronger currency 

I've had a few Iranian friends. One of them escaped decades ago, brutal extremists killed his family for political reasons. A very long fight, mostly between generations. Things slowly improving, hard to see but true.

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is on bed rest and under observation by a team of doctors, according to four people familiar with his health situation.

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In a photo made available by his office in June, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was pictured at a ceremony in Tehran.

Credit...Khamenei.Ir, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

 
 

In a photo made available by his office in June, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was pictured at a ceremony in Tehran.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, canceled all meetings and public appearances last week after falling gravely ill and is currently on bed rest under observation by a team of doctors, according to four people familiar with his health situation.

Ayatollah Khamenei, 83, had surgery sometime last week for bowel obstruction after suffering extreme stomach pains and high fever, one of the people said. The four people, two of whom are based in Iran, including one who has close ties with the country’s Revolutionary Guards, requested anonymity for discussing a sensitive issue like Ayatollah Khamenei’s health.

Ayatollah Khamenei underwent the surgery at a clinic set up at his home and office complex and is being monitored around the clock by a team of doctors, the person familiar with the operation said. The ayatollah’s condition was considered critical last week but has improved, and he is currently resting, the person said. His doctors remain concerned that he is too weak to even sit up in bed.

 

As supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei wields huge authority in Iran and would be the final arbiter on issues like the nuclear deal that is currently being negotiated with the United States. A former president of Iran and protégé of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the revolution that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, Ayatollah Khamenei assumed the position of the country’s top religious, political and military authority in 1989.

 

The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, posted a brief item on Friday saying that the ayatollah would attend a religious ceremony with university students on Saturday. But it wasn’t clear if it would take place, given his health.

Ayatollah Khamenei traveled to the religious city of Mashhad about two weeks ago to perform a ritual known as dust cleaning at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad. He went into a secluded area of the shrine, cleaned it and placed his head on a tombstone in a sign of prayer and submission. A photo of him at the shrine was published by Iranian media.

Ayatollah Khamenei told the people traveling with him that it might be his last time at the shrine, given his age, according to one of the four people, who was familiar with the details of his trip. He got sick soon after arriving back in Tehran, and his situation deteriorated over the past week, the person said.

His office canceled all meetings last week and also an important annual meeting with the Assembly of Experts — the body that will decide his replacement once he dies — on Sept. 6 because he was too ill to sit up, according to four people familiar with his health condition.

 

A member of the Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hashemzadeh Harissi, told an Iranian newspaper that “in this round, unlike previous rounds, the members of the Assembly of Experts did not meet with the supreme leader” because it would “be a heavy burden on him.”

 

While Ayatollah Khamenei’s situation prompted some speculation in Iran and among opposition groups outside the country in recent days that he had died, the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, traveled to Uzbekistan for a regional security meeting, and analysts said he would probably have canceled his trip if the ayatollah’s life had been in danger. Mr. Raisi is also scheduled to travel to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where he will be speaking on Wednesday.

Iran usually does not comment publicly on Ayatollah Khamenei’s health. But in 2014, he underwent prostate surgery, and his recovery was widely covered in the official media.

Iran’s United Nations mission in New York said it could not immediately comment without getting approval from Tehran.

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iran-ali-khameini.jpg?fit=789%2C460
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting via video conference in Tehran, Iran, February 17, 2022.(Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
By CAROLINE DOWNEY
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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, bedridden with illness after he underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery, reportedly made a public appearance Saturday after he cancelled all meetings.

Khamenei spoke to students in Tehran in person after two weeks of resting due to his deteriorating health. Khamenei, who normally speaks while sitting, addressed the crowd standing, ABC News reported. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said on Friday that Khamenei was supposed to attend a religious ceremony with university students, according to the Times of Israel.

The Iranian regime has not released any official updates on the leader’s condition.

The 83-year-old dictator experienced severe stomach pains and high fever last week, according to the New York Times, which cited four sources familiar with the situation. He was operated on for bowel obstruction at a temporary clinic set up at his house. His office called off public appearances to give him time to recover. Khamenei was treated for and survived prostate cancer in 2014.

One source told the Times that Khamenei was being supervised routinely by a team of doctors. He was in critical condition last week but has improved, the source said.

While the authoritarian’s health appears to have stabilized for the time being, members of the Iranian government have not paused diplomatic and business activities. For example, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Uzbekistan on Friday to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. He met with Russian President Vladimir Putin Thursday. Raisi is also expected to speak before the UN General Assembly in New York City on Wednesday.

Khamenei’s medical problems come as President Biden works to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran. Washington and Tehran are reportedly inching closer to an agreement with the European Union’s mediation. The deal negotiated as of mid August could grant up to $275 billion in financial benefits to Iran during its first year in effect and $1 trillion by 2030, according to a study conducted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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13 minutes ago, Markinsa said:

 

What Telegram group?

 

.

 

Spoke with my Neighbour who is an Iranian. He said while Khamenei’s medical problems are severe, in talking with his relatives, he is still alive as far as he knows. Mosques are requesting prayer's several times a day for his recovery.

 

That was as this morning when we chatted over coffee at the local restaurant.

 

   pp

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The first Iranian official comment on the 'New York Times' report on Khamenei's health condition
 

Baghdad - people  

On Sunday, Iran responded to the recent allegations made by the American newspaper "New York Times" about the health condition of the leader of the revolution in Iran, Ali Khamenei.  

 

 

  

The adviser to the Iranian negotiating team in the Vienna talks, Muhammad Marandi, said, through his account on Twitter, that "The New York Times' allegations were made a day before a speech by Ayatollah Khamenei."  

  

He added, "They claimed that they obtained information about the health of the leader of the revolution from four knowledgeable people, and they imagined the horrific and biasedness of the New York Times and other Western media on issues related to Iran."  

  

On Saturday, the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, appeared in a Husseiniya in the Iranian capital, Tehran, a day after US reports that he was suffering from illness and his health had recently deteriorated, as he stayed in bed under the observation of doctors.  

  

Iranian media published pictures of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a Husseiniya in the Iranian capital, Tehran, referring to the occasion of "the 40th anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, where a funeral ceremony was held for a gathering of student bodies from all over the country in Imam Khomeini's Husseiniya, in the presence of the Leader of the Revolution, Imam Khamenei."  

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1 hour ago, keylime said:

Every time the Dems are in office we pay this evil regime billions and billions of our tax money while our own US citizens are suffering losing life savings, housing, cars, etc. But of course birds of a feather....

Biden said last night on tv he plans on sending more of your hard earned tax overseas as much as it takes to get through this crisis. Meanwhile people in America are starving,some homeless some homeless  living in nice hotels,drug epidemic taking place,crime taking over the streets but we care more about Ukraine then our own home country. All I can say is thank you Joe Biden and his administration for destroying this country and to all the sheep out there who voted for “ole Joe “ hopefully you’ll get over the mean orange man tweets and vote for someone who actually cares about this country and not about power and greed 

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  • 2 weeks later...
 
 2022-10-02 07:47
 

 

Shafaq News/ The American Washington Institute linked the protests taking place in some regions of Iran to their impact on the selection of the possible successor to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and considered that the regime's targeting of celebrities and the positions of clerics reveal weaknesses in the system.

The American report, translated by Shafak News Agency, stated that since the beginning of the protest movement, the regime has resorted to intimidating influential public figures to prevent them from joining the protests or declaring their solidarity with the demonstrators in the streets.

Art and sports stars

However, the report indicated that some prominent sports figures and movie stars published positions for them on social media showing sympathy with the demonstrators and criticizing the government’s behavior and policies, especially the “compulsory hijab” law, noting that the majority of these positions appeared on the “Instagram” application due to censorship. Intensive imposed on the applications of other social networking sites.

In an example of this, the report indicated that football star Ali Karimi, a former player in the Iranian national team, was subjected to an unprecedented punishment for such a prominent figure after expressing his support for the demonstrators, and the security forces attacked his house and closed it for one day.

Celebrity arrest

In addition, many other celebrities have been arrested, and the report stated that the judiciary warned on September 28 last that the authorities would confiscate the assets of any of these figures who support or encourage the protesters.

However, this did not prevent some celebrities from taking challenging positions, pointing out that the Iranian "King of Comedy" Mehran Modiri, after the judiciary imposed a travel ban on him, was reported to have fled the country and published criticism of the regime's handling of the protests, and besides, many of the stars Iranian women have appeared in public or on the Internet without wearing the hijab.

The US report indicated that this regime pressure reflects its assessment that celebrities may be the only class capable of mobilizing the masses to a degree that threatens the stability of the regime.

The report added that the status of celebrities in Iranian society also reflects the possibility that traditional political and civic figures have lost much of their social power base, and the trust of many young Iranians.

The silence of the clergy

The report stated that clerics in Iran "have not yet reacted" to the protests, including religious references, adding that "their silence says a lot about the state of the religious establishment four decades after the Islamic revolution."

The report pointed out that the religious establishment witnessed, during Khamenei's rule, a bureaucratic revolution that extended the monopoly of the religious leadership under the leadership of the "Supreme Guide" as the religious ruler, which led to the reduction of the role of the "religious authorities" who were historically independent from the government.

After the clergy were financed mainly through voluntary religious taxes and endowments controlled by the religious authorities, this situation later changed as the clergy became more and more dependent on the funding provided by the government.

In addition, the report stated that these clerics began to enter the world of economic activities such as import and export companies and industrial establishments, all of which depend largely on government services for the continuation of their profits.

"The clergy are no longer financially dependent on the Iranian people, but they are very much beholden to the regime," the report said.

In addition, the report says that the clerics are also concerned about the form of government that may replace the current regime in the event of its collapse, as they believe that the success of the movement against the regime, will lead to the emergence of a new regime that does not wish to preserve their special status and advantages as clerics.

Therefore, the report made it clear that regardless of whether they agreed or disagreed with the ideology of the regime, many clerics may see that the survival of the Islamic Republic regime is the only way to preserve their political and economic privileges.

Khamenei's succession

After the report asked whether the current protests "mark the beginning of the end for the regime, or whether Tehran will be able to stop the uprising by resorting to more violence," he said that the answer is not clear now.

Despite this, the report considered that the issue of Khamenei’s succession could constitute the answer, explaining that if the rumors about the Supreme Leader’s ill health become true, it is expected that the regime’s decision-makers, especially the Revolutionary Guards, will be reluctant to resort to forcefully suppressing the demonstrators, as happened in past uprisings.

The report indicated that mass killings in the streets "may severely complicate the succession process and frustrate the goals of the Revolutionary Guards after Khamenei," adding that the appointment of a new Supreme Leader requires a calmer domestic situation without major turmoil or crises of legitimacy for the new leader to be able to assert his control.

The report considered that whenever there was a new crisis, the regime was suffering a great loss in its social bases, and therefore, the combination of continuous protests and crackdowns, in light of a chaotic succession process, may together provoke an existential threat to the entire system.

Translation: Shafak News Agency

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US report: Iran faces a dispute over the chair of the Supreme Leader in conjunction with the expansion of protests
 

Baghdad - people   

In early September, there were many rumors and reports of a serious relapse of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 83, who in 2014 underwent prostate cancer surgery.  

 

  

On September 16, the New York Times reported that emergency intestinal surgery left Khamenei so bedridden and so ill that he was unable to sit on a chair, citing four sources said to be familiar with his health.  

  

The frequent news on Persian-speaking social media that Khamenei was on his deathbed opened the door to speculation that he was indeed dead. As happened more than a decade ago, these rumors quickly turned into speculations about how Iran's Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 Islamic scholars, would select Khamenei's successor, and about the relative preference of the competing clerics for the position.  

  

Several hours later, reports of Khamenei's death proved to be exaggerated. On September 17, he appeared at a ceremony commemorating the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, whose death during the Battle of Karbala in the seventh century is considered a foundational event in Shiite history and sect. At the ceremony, Khamenei could be seen not just sitting, but standing without the cane he has been using for more than 40 years, waving and walking around with a microphone urging the disregard of "bandits" whose lies could undermine their faith.  

  

But within hours, Khamenei's comeback faded when protests erupted in northwest Iran that morning at the funeral of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, whose death, after her arrest by Tehran's religious police, sparked her inconsistent wearing of a headscarf. great anger.  

The protests began to spread to neighboring cities. The government of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who appeared for the first time on the podium of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, was also surprised.  

  

Over the following days, when Khamenei appeared at several public events covered by all Iranian state media, demonstrations spread, many of them led by young women, some of whom burned headscarves in public to protest against the law requiring the wearing of the headscarf. The protests continued to escalate, and calls to abolish the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice gave way to violent attacks on the religious establishment and the Supreme Leader himself.  

  

The current protests are now believed to be the most serious challenge facing the Iranian government since the Green Movement protests of 2009. Those challenges facing the Iranian regime have turned into a crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic out of frustration with social restrictions, anger over economic collapse and mismanagement, and discontent with Khamenei and the clerical establishment that has shown little Attention to the needs of the people.  

  

mysterious succession  

The protests expose the Iranian regime to a crisis far more pressing than the question of choosing Khamenei's successor. But the opaque succession process, and fundamental questions about its legitimacy and lack of accountability, will haunt the Iranian political system. After Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was succeeded in 1989, Khamenei became the longest-ruling leader of a country in the Middle East. His death will mark an important transformation for both Iran and the region as a whole. The competition for his succession will be fierce. Whatever the outcome, the manner of the transition will have far-reaching consequences for Iran's relationship with its Arab neighbors and Western opponents.  

  

The succession process in Iran has both formal and informal components that reflect the elected and unelected bodies of its hybrid religious system. Iran's constitution stipulates that the Assembly of Experts nominate and elect the supreme leader. When Khamenei dies or becomes incapacitated, he convenes an emergency session. Here, as in 1989, the nominees will be named, most likely from the House itself, followed by a few words and a vote. Khamenei was officially recognized after obtaining a two-thirds majority, which came with the support of high-ranking clerics and Khomeini's deathbed blessing.  

  

To prepare for the upcoming succession process, leaders of the Assembly of Experts announced in 2016 that they had formed a committee to determine the qualifications of the ideal candidate and to identify a shortlist of contenders. But there was no public distribution or discussion of that list. Khamenei previously said that the candidate must be at least a "revolutionary". The constitution defines the following characteristics of a leader: “just, pious, aware of his age, courageous, resourceful, and administratively capable.”  

  

In 1989, before the voting process began, the Assembly of Experts first discussed the possibility of electing a leadership council rather than choosing a single successor. At the time, the council voted against this proposal on the grounds that such a council would increase the rift in the Iranian political system. The constitution was amended to block the possibility of discussing the formation of a joint leadership council in the future. However, the constitution makes clear that until the elections are over, leadership functions will be temporarily taken over by a council composed of the Iranian president, Iran's chief justice, and one representative from the Guardian Council, the body that vetoes legislation.  

  

When considering future scenarios, the idea of a leadership council is often mentioned as a possible development in the post-Khamenei era. Although the Leadership Council can offer a compromise that brings together important figures to run Iran's fractured political system, constitutional revisions are required to make this scenario a real possibility. For now, without consensus on the path, it seems likely that a candidate acceptable to both the clerical establishment and the “deep state” of Iran, which has gained significant power under Khamenei, will be agreed upon.  

  

Far from the official facade, Iran's deep state is unofficially leading the succession process. While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military entity authorized to protect national security, is synonymous with the concept of the deep state in Iran, it is not only that. The “deep state” brings together a complex security, intelligence, and economic superstructure of individuals and institutions aimed at preserving the fundamental revolutionary nature, vision, and security of the Islamic Republic.  

The deep state includes the judiciary, some members of the religious bureaucracy, quasi-governmental charities, and many quasi-private entities that are essential for financing. More importantly, it also brings together the Office of the Supreme Leader, a body that exercises detailed oversight over all of Iran's political systems and processes.  

  

Khamenei's office vets the foreign, intelligence, interior, and defense ministers, as well as Iran's ambassadors to Iraq, Russia, Syria and other important allies, before sending their names to parliament for approval. The Intelligence Service of the Revolutionary Guards is also present in the office of the Supreme Leader, and has judicial and police authority to prevent abuses. This convenient arrangement enabled the Revolutionary Guards to detain citizens and dozens of dual nationals for allegedly violating national security.  

  

The deep state was nurtured under Khamenei early in his tenure to compensate for his perceived weaknesses as a religious authority, thus consolidating his power within Iran's political system. Over the years, Khamenei has succeeded in marginalizing his political opponents, as happened with his former role model, the late President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who played a decisive role in his election, as well as members of the clerical establishment who did not support his leadership. The deep state became more visible during the tenure of reformist President Mohammad Khatami from 1997 to 2005, when reforms from within were seen as a threat similar to President Mikhail Gorbachev's ideas of "glasnost" and "perestroika" in the Soviet Union.  

  

Throughout Khatami's presidency, the deep state imposed itself outside its security and economic base, gradually intervening in politics to thwart domestic opposition, such as that seen during the student-led demonstrations of 1999. After Khatami, the Iranian government used the same rules of the game to quell the 2009 Green Movement protests and protests. Economic 2017-2019, as well as to constrain the agendas of successive presidents. Today, without a doubt, the deep state is once again leading the way to crush the protests currently underway.  

  

In preparation for the succession of the new Supreme Leader, the deep state seeks, above all, to preserve the status quo. Potential candidates are expected to come from a trusted constituency. They are expected to have conservative ideological leanings and a close relationship with Khamenei.  

  

The luckiest  

In recent years, President Ebrahim Raisi has topped analysts' shortlists of contenders to replace Khamenei. Raisi's religious credentials and past political positions clearly indicate his closeness to the inner circle of powerful clerics. In 2016, Khamenei appointed him head of the Shrine Razavi Foundation, the powerful Mashhad-based economic conglomerate. In 2019, he was appointed head of the Iranian judiciary. However, it was not known. But the matter changed with his election as president in 2021, which gave him a national program, to follow Khamenei's example on the way from the presidency to the position of Supreme Leader.  

  

At the same time, Raisi's public profile also places him under greater public scrutiny, which could weaken his standing within the deep state. Raisi won the presidential election, which witnessed the lowest level of public participation in Iran's history. He took office at the height of the pressure sanctions imposed by the United States, which took a toll on the Iranian economy. Raisi has yet to score at least one political victory. Despite months of negotiations, the Iranian nuclear talks did not reach a positive outcome that would see sanctions eased, which is an embarrassment to Raisi. Successive waves of protests revealed the impact of economic and environmental mismanagement on the lives of Iranian citizens and the depth of their anger at the state's heavy-handed security. With these challenges, Raisi may lose credibility as the competition for the supreme leader intensifies.  

  

Another frequently mentioned candidate is Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba. Despite reports that Mojtaba completed enough religious education and schooling to earn the title of "Ayatollah," a move that would give him important religious credentials, figures argue that succession would further undermine the legitimacy of the constitutional establishment. But Mojtaba is closely linked to the state's deep security establishment, which is his father's permission. The deep state is also well aware that keeping members of the Khamenei family close may be necessary to contain potential opposition in the future.  

  

At the same time, many doubt the possibility of institutionalizing hereditary rule in Iran's theocracy after the 1979 revolution that toppled Iran's last Shah, the Pahlavi dynasty, and the hereditary monarchy itself. Iranians have long been angry at the idea that Khamenei would bequeath the position to his son. Many consider the idea another betrayal of the revolution. In the protests that have erupted across Iran in recent days, tens of thousands of demonstrators have expressed their anger at Khamenei and his son in obscene terms and an unprecedented personal.  

  

Other candidates who have been named in the past, such as Sadeq Larijani, a scion of the powerful Larijani family, have been discredited by accusations of corruption. With both Raisi and Khamenei's son becoming weak candidates who may not achieve unanimity, the possibility arises that an unknown figure from within the Assembly of Experts will be chosen as the last hour candidate. Someone can be run by the deep state. It is important to remember that in 1989, Khamenei was not a prominent candidate.  

  

Alternatively, a leadership board with three main characters could be revived to save the path. With persistent uncertainty and the absence of any clear path based on consensus or a strong set of candidates, the question of Khamenei's succession will remain captive to intrigue and ambiguity, further demonstrating the state's inability to act on critical issues such as the nuclear deal. One result of this complex situation will be political stalemate and competition between the parties that burden the Iranian political system. As the recent protests indicate, the old methods may not be able to withstand the constant and growing criticism from Iranian citizens.  

  

The strength and boldness of the recent protest movement and the speed of calls for Khamenei's ouster after his health deteriorated and demonstrators angered the clerical regime shocked many observers. Until recently, the religious elite hoped that the succession process would take place entirely behind closed doors, as it did in the past. But public outrage shifted the focus to the legitimacy of Khamenei and the regime he represents. Across Iran, thousands of angry protesters continue to chant “Death to Khamenei,” “Get out the clerics,” and “Mojtaba, if you die and not become the Supreme Leader,” as the deep state once again unleashes its power to quell the protests. If Khamenei dies at a time when Iran is experiencing a protest movement of this magnitude, the challenge to the theocracy could become existential.  

  

Source: The Kurdish-American Center for Studies  

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