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World Bank: Iraq will witness the highest economic growth among the Arab countries within two years


yota691
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 2022-01-12 03:36
 

Shafaq News/ The World Bank expected that Iraq will witness the highest economic growth among the Arab countries during the years 2022 and 2023, while an expert confirmed that the country is still a rentier economy.

The bank said in its report for the month of January, seen by Shafak News Agency, that "Iraq is expected to witness the highest economic growth among the Arab countries and the State of Iran during 2022, at 7.3 percent, up from 2.6 percent in 2021, after this growth decreased to -15.7 percent in the year 2020, indicating that "it is expected that economic growth in Iraq will remain higher than the rest of the Arab countries for the year 2023, despite its decline to reach 6.3 percent."

The bank added that "the economic growth of Saudi Arabia in 2022 is expected to be 4.9 percent, Qatar 4.8 percent, Kuwait 5.3 percent, Egypt 5.5 percent, UAE 4.6 percent, Bahrain 3.2 percent, Tunisia 3.2 percent, Jordan 2.3 percent, and Algeria 4.1." percent, Iran 2.4 percent, Djibouti 4.3 percent, Oman 3.4 percent and Algeria 2 percent.

While the bank did not indicate its expectations for Lebanon and Libya due to the lack of clear economic indicators for it, noting that "economic growth declined in Lebanon in the year 2021 to -10.5 percent, and economic growth in Libya rose in the same year to 78.2 percent."

The World Bank raised its forecast for the economic growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa region, in conjunction with the recovery of sectors that have been severely affected since the outbreak of the pandemic, coinciding with the rise in oil prices and the easing of monetary policies.

The World Bank expected growth in the Middle East and North Africa to accelerate to 4.4% in 2022, after raising expectations issued in June 2021, with the region’s economy growing by 3.4% in 2023. With the recovery of sectors that depend on communication, and the decline in oil production, As well as the facilitative policy environment in general.

For his part, the economic expert, Hilal Al-Tahhan, considered in an interview with Shafaq News that "the rise in economic growth in any country is a positive indicator of the improvement of its economy, but at the same time, Iraq is still considered rentier and depends mainly on the oil sector."

He added, "The higher the oil prices and the higher the production, the higher the growth in Iraq, but from the economic point of view, relying on one resource to achieve the growth rate is a negative point, not a positive," stressing that "Iraq needs to develop and diversify sources of income and focus on the agricultural, industrial and tourism sectors to contribute." effectively in achieving the growth rate and not relying on oil only to achieve an increase in the growth rate.”

Al-Tahhan also pointed out that "Iraq needs to diversify sources of income," noting that "all countries of the world that depend on one source of income are considered disadvantageous for their economy. The correct economy is the economy that depends on all economic sectors to achieve an increase in the growth rate."

The economic expert concluded his speech that "there is a plan that the government seeks to achieve, which is to focus on the agricultural, industrial and tourism sectors in order to increase the rate of economic growth in the near future."

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A report expects Iraq to achieve the highest economic growth among the Arab countries during 2022

05:50
A report expects Iraq to achieve the highest economic growth among the Arab countries during 2022

Fourth - Baghdad

The World Bank has announced an expectation that Iraq will witness the highest economic growth among Arab countries during the years 2022 and 2023.

The current January report of the World Bank stated, "It is expected that Iraq will witness the highest economic growth among the Arab countries and the State of Iran during 2022, at 7.3 percent, up from 2.6 percent in 2021, after this growth decreased to -15.7 percent in the year 2020." , indicating that "it is expected that economic growth in Iraq will remain higher than the rest of the Arab countries for the year 2023, despite its decline to reach 6.3 percent."

The report added, "It is expected that the economic growth of Saudi Arabia in 2022 will be 4.9 percent, Qatar 4.8 percent, Kuwait 5.3 percent, Egypt 5.5 percent, UAE 4.6 percent, Bahrain 3.2 percent, Tunisia 3.2 percent, Jordan 2.3 percent, and Algeria." 4.1%, Iran 2.4%, Djibouti 4.3%, Oman 3.4% and Algeria 2%.

 

He explained, "Economic growth declined in Lebanon in 2021 to -10.5 percent, and economic growth in Libya rose in the same year to 78.2 percent."

The World Bank raised its forecast for the economic growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa region, in conjunction with the recovery of sectors that have been severely affected since the outbreak of the pandemic, coinciding with the rise in oil prices and the easing of monetary policies.

The World Bank expected growth in the Middle East and North Africa to accelerate to 4.4% in 2022, after raising expectations issued in June 2021, with the region’s economy growing by 3.4% in 2023. With the recovery of sectors that depend on communication, and the decline in oil production, As well as the facilitative policy environment in general.

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More good news.!!

 

Iraq continues moving forward.

 

“The World Bank expected that Iraq will witness the highest economic growth among the Arab countries during the years 2022 and 2023, while an expert confirmed that the country is still a rentier economy.”

 

This could be year when Iraq will move to an open market economy.

 

Go Iraq 

Go international 

Go stronger dinar

Go growth 

 

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Thanks for the post Yota!   This looks like a really good sign for Iraq.   Two years is not so long compared to how long a lot of us have been waiting.   I personally don't think it will be two years.  Everything seems pretty good right now, and once they get everyone seated, it will pick up some steam.  Looking for 2022 to be the year!  :twothumbs:

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2 hours ago, NWGUY said:

This looks like a really good sign for Iraq.   Two years is not so long compared to how long a lot of us have been waiting.   I personally don't think it will be two years.  Everything seems pretty good right now, and once they get everyone seated, it will pick up some steam.  Looking for 2022 to be the year!  

Agreed. I think an RV/RI of the Dinar or at a minimum going international at a low rate and letting it float will be the catalyst that helps them achieve the growth rate talked about in these articles. Go RV 1st Qtr 2022!


Thanks again Yota!

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Global Economic Prospects: Middle East and North Africa

 

January 2022 Recent developments: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region experienced a strong economic recovery in the second half of 2021, bringing output back to its pre-pandemic level in some economies. Economic performance has been uneven across the region because of differences in the severity and effects of the pandemic.

 

In Saudi Arabia, expanding oil output has been accompanied by a recovery in the non-oil sector made possible by rapid vaccine progress. The pandemic had a relatively limited impact on the service sector in the Islamic Republic of Iran, while oil production and industrial activity rebounded. The Arab Republic of Egypt's economy grew at a faster rate than expected into fiscal year 2020/21, benefiting from robust consumption demand, growing remittances, and contained inflation relative to recent history. In Tunisia, an acceleration in COVID-19 cases in mid-2021, accompanying increased restrictions on mobility, and political uncertainty throttled the rebound last year.

 

Consumer inflation in the region remains below its long-run average, except in Lebanon and the Islamic Republic of Iran, reflecting weak demand, with still negative output gaps, and in many cases, fixed exchange rate regimes.

 

Outlook: As contact-intensive sectors recover and oil production cuts wane and supported by tailwinds of a generally accommodative policy environment, growth in MENA is expected to accelerate to 4.4 percent in 2022, an upward revision from June 2021, and moderate to 3.4 percent in 2023. The gap in average per capita income between MENA and advanced economies is projected to widen during the forecast horizon, however.

 

Higher oil and natural gas prices and increased production are expected to benefit energy exporters. Saudi Arabia's oil sector is expected to rebound strongly, boosting exports, while non-oil activity should benefit from high vaccination rates and accelerating investment. In Iraq, output is expected to expand by 7.3 percent in 2022 led by the oil sector. The growth rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2022 has been revised upward due to a gradual recovery in the oil sector and the easing of COVID-19 mobility restrictions.

 

The short-term outlook has also improved for oil importers. In Egypt, output is expected to grow by 5.5 percent in the fiscal year ending June 2022, because of improved external demand from major trading partners, an expansion of the information and communications technology and gas extractives sectors, and gradual improvements in tourism. In Morocco, however, the economy is expected to grow by 3.2 percent in 2022, a slower pace than projected in June 2021, as agricultural output slows.

 

Risks: Further COVID-19 outbreaks, social unrest, high debt in some economies, and conflict could undermine economic activity in MENA. With less than two-fifths of the population of MENA fully vaccinated, concentrated in the region’s high-income economies, economic disruptions related to the pandemic remain a major risk.

 

Changes to oil prices could undermine activity in the region with gains and losses accruing differently to oil importers and exporters. Underinvestment in the sector may limit the ability of oil exporters to take advantage of high oil prices. The rapid spread of Omicron may undermine global demand and lead to a retrenchment in oil prices.

 

The increasing frequency of natural disasters linked to climate change threatens to undermine lives and livelihoods in MENA. Over time, rising temperatures would reduce growing areas for agriculture and yields and exacerbate already-scarce water resources, undermining food security, forcing migration, lowering labor productivity, and raising the likelihood of conflict. 

 

 

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Middle East and North Africa Forecasts

(Annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

                                                                                              2019     2020     2021e     2022f   2023f

GDP at market prices (average 2010-19 US$)

Algeria                                                                                 1.0          -5.1           4.1            2.0          1.5

Bahrain                                                                                 2.1          -5.1          3.5            3.2          2.9

Djibouti                                                                                7.8           0.5           5.1            4.3          5.5

Egypt, Arab Rep. a                                                          5.6           3.6          3.3            5.5          5.5

Iran, Islamic Rep. a                                                       -6.8           3.4           3.1            2.4          2.2

Iraq                                                                                        6.0        -15.7         2.6             7.3          6.3            Jordan                                                                                 2.0           -1.6         2.2             2.3          2.3

Kuwait                                                                               -0.6           -8.9         2.0            5.3          3.0

Lebanon b                                                                        -6.7         -21.4     -10.5 .. ..

Libya b                                                                                 2.5         -31.3       78.2 .. ..

Morocco                                                                             2.6            -6.3         5.3           3.2           3.5

Oman                                                                                 -0.8            -2.8         3.0           3.4           4.1

Qatar                                                                                    0.8            -3.6         3.0           4.8          4.9

Saudi Arabia                                                                     0.3             -4.1          2.4          4.9          2.3

Tunisia                                                                                 1.5             -9.2          2.9          3.5          3.3

United Arab Emirates                                                   3.4             -6.1           2.7          4.6          2.9

West Bank and Gaza                                                     1.4            -11.3          6.0          3.4         3.4

Source: World Bank. Note: e = estimate; f = forecast.

 

World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time. a. Refers to fiscal year. Please see regional annex for details on fiscal year reporting. b. Forecasts for Lebanon and Libya beyond 2021 are excluded because of a high degree of uncertainty.

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