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Expectations that “OPEC +” will move forward with increasing oil production


yota691
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  •  Time: 01/11/2022 08:39:41
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Slight rise in oil
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Oil prices rose today, Tuesday, after two days of losses, thanks to the return of investors' appetite for risk, while the market awaits signals from the President of the Federal Reserve (the US Central Bank) regarding raising interest rates.

The rise also comes at a time when some oil producers are finding it difficult to raise the level of their crude production.

Brent crude rose 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.13 a barrel, after falling 1% in the previous session.

A weak dollar helped support prices on Tuesday, as it makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Oil prices fell in the previous two sessions due to fears caused by the rapid global rise in infections with the mutated Omicron strain of the Corona virus, which could weaken demand for fuel.

However, analysts pointed out that supplies from OPEC and non-OPEC producers, in what is known as the OPEC + grouping, are not keeping pace with demand, which supports prices.

Libya, which is exempt from OPEC supply restrictions, has been hit by pipeline maintenance and oil field disruptions. But it resumed production on Monday at the El Feel oil field, after it was stopped by an armed group last month.

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Within the OPEC agreement, Iraq's share of crude oil will increase within a month

01:32
Within the OPEC agreement, Iraq's share of crude oil will increase within a month

Fourth - follow up

13 OPEC countries pumped 28.04 million barrels per day of crude oil, during the month of December, an increase of 190,000 barrels per day from November, while nine non-OPEC partners pumped 13.98 million barrels per day, an increase of 120 thousand barrels per day. .

According to a survey conducted by the "Standard & Poor's Global Platts" platform, "the gains of Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Angola exceeded the losses of Libya and Nigeria, which made the increase in OPEC + production for the tenth month in a row."

It added that 14 of the 18 members had quotas that did not meet their targets, including even its largest producer Russia, whose compliance level rose above 100% for the first time since February, when harsh winter temperatures shut down wells and reduced pipeline flows. pipes".

 

The platform survey found, "Total compliance with OPEC + quotas jumped to 116.5%, the highest level since the alliance introduced record production cuts in the spring of 2020, with the 19 members subject to production targets to pump about 620,000 barrels per day below their common ceiling."

According to the survey, Iraq continued to exceed its share, which rose by 60 thousand barrels per day per month, to reach 4.310 million barrels per day, from 4.250 million barrels per day last November, bringing the percentage of commitment and compliance to 82.2 percent.

Saudi production amounted to 9.95 million barrels per day, and production increased by 60 thousand barrels per day, with a commitment rate of 106.9 percent.

Among the losers, Libya fell to its lowest level in one year at 1.05 million barrels per day, due to protests that closed several major oil fields and a major terminal, while Nigeria suffered more operational and technical problems that led to a decrease in production to 1.38 million barrels per day.

 
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 2022-01-13 05:19
 

Shafaq News/ The prices of the OPEC oil basket rose, on Thursday, to reach more than 84 dollars, affected by the rise in other oil raw materials.

 

And the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated in a report seen by Shafak News Agency, that "the price of the OPEC basket of thirteen barrels of crude increased by $2.22 to reach $84.35, compared to yesterday, Wednesday, when the price was $82.13."

 

Oil prices rose globally this week with the increase in global demand for oil by the largest oil consumers, despite the high infections of the highly contagious type of Omicron of the Corona virus around the world. .

 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reference basket consists of the following: Sahara Mix (Algeria), Girasole (Angola), Djeno (Congo), Zafiro (Equatorial Guinea), Rabih Light (Gabon), Heavy Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran - Iran) ), Basra Al Khafif (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sidr (Libya), Pune Light (Nigeria), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Miri (Venezuela).

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  •  Time: 01/13/2022 09:38:32
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Oil prices are expected to rise to $125 this year
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Bank (JP Morgan) said on Wednesday that it expects the surplus production capacity of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to decline over the course of 2022, which increases the risks of a sharp increase in crude prices.

The US investment bank expects oil prices to rise to reach $125 a barrel this year and $150 a barrel in 2023. "We see a growing recognition in the market of weak global investment in supply," he said.

Oil prices hit two-month highs on Wednesday, supported by a supply shortage, as crude stocks in the United States, the world's largest consumer, fell to their lowest levels since 2018.

The bank said in a note that assuming production at the current quotas, the surplus production capacity of OPEC will fall to 4% of the total production capacity by the fourth quarter in 2022, from 13%, in the third quarter in 2021.

He added that the weak investment within the OPEC + countries and the increasing demand for oil after the pandemic may lead to a potential energy crisis.

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Oil price recovery.. Positive expectations

Thursday 13 January 2022 263Oil price recovery.. Positive expectations

 
  Baghdad: Haider Falih Al-Rubaie
The consultant in energy economics, Dr. Falah Jassim Al-Amiri, suggested that oil prices will continue to recover during the current year, attributing the reasons for this rise to the return of economic activity globally, and many countries taking measures that would reduce the general closure left by the Corona pandemic, and while he expected that the year would witness The current 2022, the strengthening of demand for OPEC + oils and the growth of production of member states, confirmed that there are no fears of calculating the price of a barrel of oil between 45-50 dollars in the current year’s budget.
 
And oil prices jumped, yesterday, Wednesday, as Brent crude rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to reach $ 83.94 a barrel.
 
The return of economic activity
Al-Amiri told Al-Sabah that the average level of oil prices for 2022 will be relatively high, supported by several factors, including the return of global economic activity during this year, especially after reducing the global closure globally, allowing citizens to move, travel, mix, open factories, the service sector and tourism.
The expert in the field of energy pointed out that {the fluctuation in international oil prices, up and down, is the prevailing characteristic in the oil markets because of its connection to the global economic cycle, in addition to the presence of many factors related to supply and demand for energy, but the average price of oil in light of this fluctuation will exceed limits of $50 per barrel this year,” stressing “there are no indications of a collapse in energy prices, especially oil, as the global economy is going through a recovery cycle despite the prevailing concern about the spread of the Corona pandemic mutants.”
 
Public budget
According to the expectations of the recovery of global demand for petroleum, Al-Amiri confirmed {there are no fears of adopting a price of 45-50 dollars per barrel in the general budget} at the same time suggesting {adopting this price for the next three years, and then adopting the price of 42-44 dollars per barrel. , and for another three years, then the price of $40 a barrel is calculated for a subsequent four-year period, stressing that this is in line with the policy of economic reform, which includes diversification and getting rid of the unilateral and rentier economy, as well as with the aim of getting used to adopting low oil prices in the annual budget, which may become The dominant feature in the future after the growth of the production of renewable energy sources in the world, and its use as a fuel in the transportation and electricity generation sector instead of oil and coal, and for environmental reasons as well.
 
Funding for strategic projects
Al-Amiri stressed the necessity of “dramatic changes in the structure of the financial policy, by allocating a portion of oil revenues ranging between 10-15 billion dollars annually, and as of this year, to finance strategic projects to rehabilitate the country’s infrastructure, especially the construction of modern public and specialized hospitals and the restoration of Rehabilitation of the sewage network in all governorates, financing strategic industrial projects, building a modern and rapid railway network, and constructing an international external road network extending from south to north and from east to west, in addition to financing the construction of a new advanced refinery and the construction of a petrochemical plant.
 
energy investments
The energy economics consultant believes that investing in the oil and gas sector is one of the most important investments in Iraq, and ranks first because of its importance in the country’s economy. of fuel in most social and economic activities. Therefore, investments in the oil and gas sector are very essential, and contribute to the introduction of modern technology and high-level foreign expertise, in addition to providing foreign capital, stressing the need to increase and develop oil and gas production first, and the refinery and petrochemicals sector secondly, and to maintain Third, the development of oil services or logistics operations.
Al-Amiri pointed out that {the importance of investing in oil and gas lies in the fact that Iraq has large reserves, and it is very necessary to create a balance between these reserves and their production rate, in line with the need of the global market and internal consumption, in addition to enhancing the value of these reserves through the volume of production. It is appropriate to obtain the largest possible revenue from this wealth 
National.
 
Increasing global demand
Al-Amiri also expected, that “the current year 2022 will witness an increase in demand for OPEC + oils, the growth of production in member states and the achievement of relatively high and stable oil prices, stressing that this matter will reflect positively on Iraqi oil production and will gradually increase to contribute to meeting the needs of global markets and in coordination with alliance 
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On 1/13/2022 at 5:58 AM, yota691 said:

With Biden as president the price of oil could reach $150 easily. Not sure if the house and senate has enough stroke to pressure Sadia Arabia after the November midterms or not.
All Trump had to do was make one phone call and the gas got to $1.75 a gallon. 
If you love paying $4.00 for a gallon of gas thank a liberal…. 

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Three scenarios for oil price levels

Sunday 16 January 2022 57Three scenarios for oil price levels

 
 Baghdad: Hussein Thaghb 
 It is known that global oil prices are in a state of high fluctuation, affected by several immediate and cumulative factors, the most important of which is the developments of the Corona pandemic and its modifiers. Many officials in global economic institutions, especially global oil markets, prompted a 15% drop in oil prices after it crossed the $80/barrel threshold before the emergence of the Omicron mutant. 
 
But after that, global oil prices gradually recovered due to fear of a shortage in oil supplies as a result of the political and security turmoil that occur in some oil-producing countries, as well as the decline in the risks of the Corona pandemic and the diminishing fears of the Omicron mutator, and oil prices have now reached their levels. Previously last November. 
 
Instability
International energy expert, Dr. Falah Al-Amiri, said: "Legitimate questions began to appear among many economists, politicians and analysts about the future of global oil prices amid this extreme fluctuation and instability of oil despite the general positive trend."
He added, "Although the current indicators and the basics of the global oil markets indicate that there are many factors that push towards the continued rise in oil prices during 2022, there is a discrepancy in estimating the level of expected oil prices, so there are three scenarios for the levels of international oil prices, and each scenario moves it. Various factors affect supply and demand for oil.  
 
big changes
He pointed out that “the first of these scenarios is that oil prices will remain within their current levels between 75-85 dollars per barrel in the event that there are no major changes in the conditions experienced by the current global oil markets, and the markets remain in a state of caution and anticipation for any emergency changes in the world that may affect the oil price levels.  
 
second scenario
He pointed out that “the second scenario is the continuation of the rise in oil prices and their reaching the threshold of 100 dollars per barrel, and this scenario occurs in the event that the following factors occur. Next March or April, as well as in the event that Libyan and Kazakhstani oil continues to stop pumping to global markets, as well as the stalled negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the growth in demand for oil as a result of a gradual increase in global economic activity due to the reduction of global restrictions on the movement of citizens, as well as the continuation of The high demand for oil due to a decrease in temperature in European countries, America, Russia and other countries that are experiencing cold and harsh weather conditions.”
Third Scenario
And Al-Amiri indicated that “the third scenario stands when oil prices may reach the level of 125 dollars per barrel, and in fact there is a possibility that oil prices will reach the threshold of 125 dollars, as expected by some financial institutions or international oil companies, unless conditions exist that cause a major imbalance between Supply and demand for oil in global markets, in the event of a significant growth in oil demand to high levels, especially in February and above, especially in the event of a severe cold wave due to a significant drop in temperature, as well as in the event of a significant increase in demand After the official announcement of the weak influence of the Omicron mutator and the emergence of indicators of the end of the Corona pandemic, a comprehensive opening of local and global transport movement without restrictions, and the return of global economic activity to its levels as it was before the emergence of the pandemic 
Corona". 
 
oil stocks
He stressed that "the third scenario includes stopping the continued liberation of part of American oil stocks under President Biden's plan, because this method has become ineffective due to a significant shortage in American crude oil stocks, as they reached their lowest levels since 2018, and the withdrawal of oil from the inventory doubled as a result of Biden's plan." On the one hand, and the increase in domestic demand on the other hand, due to the cold winter season, and the continuation of this situation has begun to cause concern among traders of the oil trading exchanges and may lead to a significant rise in oil prices to high levels that may reach or exceed 125 dollars per barrel, and the chance of this scenario occurring It increases in the event that the OPEC plan remains as it is, and the return of Libyan and Kazakh oil fluctuates, and the delay in reaching the nuclear agreement between the Republic of Iran and the 5+1 group.” 
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  •  Time : 01/17 2022 08:45:03
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Oil rises to its highest level in more than 3 years
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Oil prices recorded, on Monday, a remarkable increase, as Brent crude futures reached their highest levels in more than three years, as investors bet that supply will remain tight amid production restrictions by major producers, with global demand not affected by omicron variable.

Brent crude futures rose 6 cents, or 0.07 percent, to $86.12 a barrel. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 17 cents, or 0.20 percent, to $83.47 a barrel.

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  • Time: 01/18/2022 16:57:12
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Brent crude continues to gain above $88
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Oil prices continued their gains during trading, Tuesday, and “Brent” crude exceeded the $88 barrier, in anticipation of the monthly production report of “OPEC” for December, and with a follow-up to the latest developments in supply and demand in conjunction with geopolitical tensions in the region. Middle east.
 

In a note, analysts at Australian brokerage CommSec confirmed that oil prices were supported by colder winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere, and that those conditions boosted demand for heating fuel.

For his part, "Ash Glover", an analyst at CMC Markets, said that analysts' expectations indicate that demand will exceed supply this year, as the world is heading to reopen the economy and borders after two years of closures.

In terms of trading, the futures contracts for the standard “Brent” crude for March delivery rose by 1.84%, or $1.59, to $88.07 a barrel, at 10:45 AM Mecca time.

The US “NYMEX” crude contracts for February delivery also increased by 2.28%, or $1.91, at $85.73 a barrel.

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Let go Brandon..Open up that pipeline you closed...OPEC stating they up the production to 400,000 next month. But forecast states gas prices are gonna double... 

 

 

  •  Time: 01/18/2022 17:04:13
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OPEC keeps its forecast for oil markets unchanged
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} "OPEC" maintained the forecast for the growth of global demand for oil at 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021, and 4.2 million barrels per day in 2022.
 

The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth was 0.7 million barrels per day in 2021 and 3.0 million barrels per day in 2022, unchanged.
It also kept expectations of growth in demand for OPEC oil at 27.8 million barrels per day in 2021, 28.9 million barrels per day in 2022.
OPEC also kept the forecast for global economic growth unchanged at 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. OPEC +, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" and independent producers, including Russia, agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day starting from February, which has been followed monthly since August.
The price of Brent crude rose during trading on Tuesday, January 18, to breach the $88 barrier for the first time in 7 years.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude also hit a seven-year high, driven by increased optimism about demand, easing concerns related to the outbreak of the omicron and geopolitical tension.
The price of a barrel of Texas Intermediate crude in futures contracts reached a record high of 85.66 dollars in Asian trading, the highest level recorded since October 2014.

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  •  Time: 01/19/2022 08:24:13
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Oil continues to rise and records the highest price in 7 years
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Oil prices rose for the fourth day in a row to reach their highest levels in seven years, as the disruption of a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey increased concerns about the already existing expectations of tight supply amid geopolitical problems.

Brent crude futures rose to $89.05, the highest level since October 13, 2014.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.51, or 1.8 percent, to $86.94 a barrel, extending gains after recording a 1.9% increase on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude earlier climbed to a peak of $87.08, its highest level since Oct. 9, 2014.

Turkey's state pipeline operator Botas said on Tuesday it had halted the flow of oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline following an explosion. The cause of the explosion is unknown.

The pipeline transports crude from Iraq, the second largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to the Turkish port of Ceyhan for export.

This comes at a time when analysts expect a lack of oil supply in 2022, which has shook, due to reasons including the increase in demand, much more than what was expected in light of the highly contagious mutated strain of the Corona virus, as some refer to the return of the oil price to $ 100 a barrel.

Exacerbating supply concerns are geopolitical problems in Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, and the United Arab Emirates, OPEC's third-largest oil producer.

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    • By yota691
      Secretary-General of "OPEC": The expectations of the oil market are positive in general
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      Mohamed Barkindo added, in statements via Twitter, today, Tuesday, that positive global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are encouraging.
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      OPEC + will hold a meeting next Thursday, amid expectations of an increase in production by about 500 thousand barrels per day.
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