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Expectations that “OPEC +” will move forward with increasing oil production


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An expert explains the impact of “OPEC +” decisions on Iraqi oil production
 

Baghdad - people  

On Tuesday, the economist, professor of economics at Basra University, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, shed light on the impact of OPEC Plus decisions on Iraq's oil production.  

  

 

  

Al-Marsoumi said in a clarification followed by "Nass" (October 4, 2022), "OPEC Plus will hold a meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, the fifth of this October, to confront the large supply gap in the global oil market, which is estimated at 1.7 million barrels, which is pressuring prices in a downward direction." ".  

  

He added, "This meeting comes under complex political and economic circumstances in which the Russian-Ukrainian war cast a shadow of anxiety and turmoil on the global energy market and the global economy in general. interest rates several times to counter inflation, even if this leads to harming economic growth in it."  

  

He continued, "Therefore, any substantial reduction in OPEC Plus production to address the imbalance in market fundamentals would lead to higher inflation and erosion of global demand for oil, which could lead to widening the supply gap instead of narrowing it. Russia proposes a production cut of one million barrels per day for the month of November." What will come next, while other countries, led by Saudi Arabia, see that the reduction should not exceed half a million barrels per day."  

  

And between, "If OPEC Plus agrees to the Russian proposal, this means that it has taken the largest production reduction since 2020, and such a decision would raise oil prices in the short term above the level of $90 a barrel," noting, "In this case, Iraq's share of the reduction will be 12%, equivalent to 120 thousand barrels per day, and thus Iraq’s production share specified for it in OPEC Plus will be 4.531 million barrels per day instead of 4.651 million barrels per day, which is higher than its current actual production of 4.525 million barrels per day, and thus Iraqi oil revenues will rise from the OPEC decision due to the high Prices first, and maintaining Iraq's actual production of crude oil without reducing secondly."  

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An economist explains the impact of OPEC Plus decisions on Iraq's oil production
  
{Economist: Al Furat News} The economic expert, Nabil Al Marsoumi, explained, on Tuesday, the impact of OPEC Plus decisions on Iraq's oil production.

Al-Marsawy wrote on his page on social networking sites (Facebook): "OPEC Plus will hold a meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, the fifth of October, to confront the large supply gap in the global oil market, which is estimated at 1.7 million barrels, which is putting pressure on prices in a downward direction."

He added, "This meeting comes under politically and economically complicated circumstances in which the Russian-Ukrainian war cast a shadow of anxiety and turmoil on the global energy market and the economy in general. interest rates several times to counter inflation, even if this leads to harming economic growth in it.”

He continued, "Any substantial reduction in OPEC Plus production to address the imbalance in market fundamentals would lead to higher inflation and an erosion of global demand for oil, which could lead to a widening of the supply gap instead of narrowing it."

He explained that "Russia is proposing a production reduction of one million barrels per day for the month of next November, while other countries, led by Saudi Arabia, believe that the reduction should not exceed half a million barrels per day, and if OPEC Plus agrees to the Russian proposal, this means that it has taken the largest production reduction since 2020. Such a decision would raise oil prices in the short term above the level of $90 a barrel.

He pointed out, "In this case, Iraq's share of the reduction will be 12%, which is equivalent to 120 thousand barrels per day, and thus Iraq's production share specified for it in OPEC Plus will be 4.531 million barrels per day instead of 4.651 million barrels per day, which is higher than its current actual production of 4.525 Millions of barrels per day, and thus Iraqi oil revenues will rise from the OPEC decision due to the rise in prices first, and the preservation of Iraq's actual production of crude oil without a second reduction."

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Al-Faris: The “OPEC +” alliance will take the appropriate decision to ensure energy supplies

Al-Faris: The “OPEC +” alliance will take the appropriate decision to ensure energy supplies
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Faris
 

Kuwait – Mubasher: Minister of Oil, Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs and Minister of State for National Assembly Affairs Muhammad Al-Faris said that the “OPEC +” alliance will study the general situation of the global oil market, and will take the appropriate decision; To ensure the supply of energy in the interests of producers and consumers alike.

 

This comes, according to a statement by the Kuwaiti Oil Ministry today, Tuesday, in a statement made by "Al-Faris" before leaving Kuwait to participate in the forty-fifth meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee to Monitor Production in the "OPEC +" alliance.

The Kuwaiti minister will also be referred to the thirty-third ministerial meeting of the OPEC Plus alliance, which will be held in attendance for the first time since March 2020 after the Corona virus pandemic, at the headquarters of the General Secretariat of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna tomorrow, Wednesday.

This came in the presence of the Governor of the State of Kuwait to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Muhammad Khader Al-Shatti, and the National Representative of Kuwait to the Organization, Abdullah Sabah Al-Sabah.

The Kuwaiti Oil Minister pointed out that these periodic meetings will follow the developments of the global oil market; In order to take the appropriate decision to maintain the balance of supply and demand.

Al-Fares stated that “OPEC +” is studying all developments and changes in the market to reach decisions that guarantee the security of supplies and the stability of markets.

He stressed the importance of the meetings in Vienna, as it looks at the prospects for renewing cooperation, and that "OPEC +" has flexibility under the umbrella of the Declaration of Cooperation Agreement; To ensure the recovery and balance of the market and has proven its success during the years 2020 and 2021.

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Oil prices rise at settlement amid expectations of production cuts
 

Baghdad - people  

Oil prices jumped, on Tuesday, by nearly three dollars a barrel, amid expectations that the OPEC + group would agree to a significant reduction in crude production during its meeting this week.  

  

  

  

And it appears, according to "Reuters", that the producers of the OPEC + group are determined to reduce production when they meet tomorrow, Wednesday, which will put pressure on supplies in the oil market, which executives in energy companies and analysts say is already scarce due to strong demand, lack of investment and supply problems.  

  

Brent crude futures rose $2.94, or 3.3 percent, to settle at $91.80 a barrel.  

  

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed up $2.89, or 3.5 percent, to $86.52 a barrel.  

  

Sources from OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, said the bloc was considering cutting production by more than 1 million barrels per day. Oil extended its gains after Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ was considering a two million barrel per day cut.  

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OPEC + heads for deep supply cuts and collides with America
 

Baghdad - people  

The OPEC+ alliance appears to be preparing for deep oil production cuts when it meets on Wednesday, limiting supplies in an already tight market despite pressure from the United States and other consuming countries to pump more. 

 

A possible OPEC + production cut may lead to a recovery in oil prices, which fell to about $ 90 from 120 three months ago, due to fears of a global economic recession, raising US interest rates and a stronger dollar.  

  

Sources told Reuters this week that OPEC +, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, is working on cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day. An OPEC source said on Tuesday that the cuts could reach 2 million barrels per day.  

  

Sources said it was still not clear whether the cuts might include additional voluntary cuts by members such as Saudi Arabia or whether they might include the group's current production shortfall.  

  

OPEC production is currently three million barrels per day below its target, and the inclusion of those barrels will mitigate the impact of the new cuts.  

  

"If oil prices rise on massive production cuts, it is likely to irritate the Biden administration ahead of the US midterm elections," Citi analysts said in a note.  

  

"There may be further political backlash from the United States, including additional releases of strategic stocks," they added, referring to a US antitrust law against OPEC.  

  

Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) said they were seeking to prevent volatility rather than targeting a specific oil price.  

  

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 3 percent on Tuesday, topping $91 a barrel.  

  

The West has accused Russia of using energy as a weapon at a time when Europe is suffering a severe energy crisis and may face gas and energy rationing this winter in a blow to its industry.  

  

In return, Moscow accuses the West of weaponizing the dollar and financial systems such as Swift in response to Russia's sending of troops to Ukraine in February. The West accuses Moscow of invading Ukraine, while Russia calls it a special military operation.  

  

Russia has been a member of OPEC + since 2016. The group has reduced and increased production to manage the oil market, but it has rarely made cuts when the market is tight.  

  

The big cut is likely to anger the United States, which has pressured Saudi Arabia to pump more oil in order to lower prices and reduce Russia's revenue from crude exports.  

  

Saudi Arabia did not denounce Moscow's actions. Relations are strained between the kingdom and the administration of US President Joe Biden, who flew to Riyadh this year but failed to secure any firm commitments on energy cooperation. 

  

 

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The OPEC + war ignites .. the UAE joins Saudi Arabia in confronting Washington
 

  

Baghdad - people   

Western media said a while ago that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to support Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil production cuts.   

 

The Financial Times said the support from an influential Gulf state is a blow to US efforts to stop the OPEC + members agreement.  

  

According to the news, the UAE is likely to support significant oil production cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia at Wednesday's OPEC + meeting in a blow to US efforts to try to stop the deal.  

  

Two people familiar with the discussions before the meeting said the UAE was on board despite last-minute efforts by the United States and other Western powers to get the nation out of the deal.  

  

The sources said the Gulf country is among the most influential members of OPEC+ outside of Saudi Arabia and Russia.  

  

  

  

two million barrels  

A Gulf source in OPEC said on Wednesday before the meeting, where the organization is expected to announce plans to cut production by one million to two million people.  

  

"While OPEC+ members respect the US's wish, the organization needs to do what is in its best interest," the sources said.  

  

The source added that the UAE had received communications from the United States and other Western powers that oppose efforts to try to raise oil prices.  

  

The White House has indicated that it believes the cuts are unnecessary and come at a dangerous time for the global economy as it grapples with an energy crisis caused by Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine.  

  

  

  

Al Mazrouei's statements  

Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy, said on Wednesday that the risk of a recession, which could lower oil prices, was one of the factors that would drive the OPEC+ decision.  

  

"OPEC+ remains a technical organization and it is very important that the decision remains technical, not political," Al Mazrouei said.  

  

Based on that we will make the right decision as we see fit, the stagnation is the challenge and one of the primary factors we all look at.”  

  

  

  

shock to Washington  

Any production cut is likely to trigger a reaction from the White House if it leads to higher prices ahead of the crucial midterm elections in November.  

  

Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to the George W. Bush administration, said there would be real anger in the Biden administration if Saudi Arabia led the group in a massive cut that would boost prices.

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  • Time: 10/05/2022 07:56:10
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White House pressures OPEC countries to avoid "disaster"
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} Sources revealed to CNN that the administration of Joe Biden launched a large-scale pressure campaign in a last attempt to dissuade allies in the Middle East from significantly reducing oil production.
 

This comes before the crucial meeting, on Wednesday, of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries +, the international bloc of oil producers, which is widely expected to announce a significant production cut in an attempt to raise oil prices, which in turn will lead to higher gasoline prices in the United States at a perilous time for For the Biden administration, just 5 weeks before the midterm elections for Congress.
Over the past several days, the Biden administration's top energy, economic, and foreign policy officials have been enlisted to pressure their foreign counterparts in Middle Eastern allies including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to vote against cutting oil production.
It is expected that OPEC + members led by Saudi Arabia and its allies, including Russia, will announce production cuts that may amount to more than one million barrels per day, and this will be the largest reduction since the beginning of the Corona epidemic and could lead to a significant rise in oil prices.
According to a draft the White House sent to the Treasury Department on Monday and obtained by CNN, it described the prospect of cutting oil production as a "complete disaster" and warned that it could be considered a "hostile act."
"It is important that everyone understands the severity of those risks," a US official said of what was described as a broad management effort expected to continue in the run-up to the OPEC+ meeting.
Another US official stated that the White House was "in a state of panic and panic," describing the administration's recent efforts as reflecting determination to achieve its goal.
"We have made clear that energy supplies must meet demand to support economic growth and lower prices for consumers around the world, and we will continue to talk with our partners about that," National Security Council spokeswoman Adrian Watson said in a statement.
For Biden, the dramatic cut in oil production could not have come at a worse time.
For months, the administration has been engaged in an intense domestic and foreign policy effort to mitigate the rise in energy prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The work seemed to be paying off, as US gasoline prices fell for nearly 100 days in a row.
But with only a month left before the crucial midterm elections, US gasoline prices are starting to rise again, posing a political risk the White House is desperately trying to avoid.
As US officials have moved to test potential domestic options to avoid gradual increases over the past several weeks, news of an OPEC+ oil production cut is particularly challenging.
Watson declined to comment on the midterm elections, saying instead that "thanks to the efforts of the president (Biden), energy prices have fallen sharply from their high levels and American consumers are paying much less."
All Efforts Needed
Amos Hochstein, the US president's chief energy envoy, played a leading role in the lobbying effort, which was much more comprehensive than before amid intense concern in the White House about a possible cut.
Hochstein, with Senior US National Security Official Brett McGurk and US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking, traveled to Riyadh late last month to discuss a range of energy and security issues as a follow-up to Biden's high-level visit to Saudi Arabia in July.
Officials with the US administration's foreign policy and economic teams also engaged in communicating with the governments of OPEC countries as part of recent efforts to stave off production cuts.
The White House asked US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to personally present the issue to some Gulf finance ministers, including from Kuwait and the UAE, and try to convince them that production cuts would be extremely harmful to the global economy.
The United States argued that a long-term reduction in oil production would create further downward pressure on prices, which is the opposite of what the big cut is intended to do, as “reducing now would increase inflation risks,” and eventually lead to higher interest rates. greater risks of stagnation.
The White House draft suggested that Yellen reach out to her foreign counterparts and inform them that "there is a significant political risk to your reputation and your relations with the United States and the West if you take such a step."
A senior US official admitted that the administration has been pressing the Saudi-led coalition for weeks to try to persuade them not to cut oil production.
This comes less than 3 months after Biden traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on a trip that was partly motivated by a desire to persuade the kingdom, the de facto leader of OPEC, to increase its oil production, helping to reduce fuel prices that were high in the that time.
In the months leading up to the meeting, Biden's top Middle East and energy aides, McGurk and Hochstein, shuttled between Washington and Saudi Arabia to plan and coordinate the visit.
One diplomatic official in the region described the US campaign to block production cuts as not robust given economic fragility and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Although another source familiar with the discussions said, one diplomat from one of the countries dealt with described them as "desperate".
An informed source says that communication with the UAE was planned, but Kuwait rejected this effort.
Kuwait's embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the Saudi embassy and the UAE embassy immediately respond to a request for comment.
Publicly, the White House has cautiously avoided saying about the possibility of a significant oil production cut, and White House spokeswoman Karen-Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday: "We are not members of OPEC+, so I don't want to pre-empt what this meeting could come up with." .
She added that the focus of the United States remains "to take every step to ensure that the markets are supplied with enough to meet the demand of the growing global economy."
OPEC's efforts to boost prices
OPEC+ members are considering a more dramatic cut in oil production due to the sharp drop in prices, which have fallen sharply below $90 a barrel in recent months.
The OPEC+ meeting will also set the looming oil price ceiling that European countries intend to impose on Russian oil exports as punishment for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Many OPEC+ members, not just Russia, have expressed dismay at the prospect of a price cap due to the precedent they could set for consumers, not the market, to dictate the price of oil.
The White House draft to the Treasury included a US proposal that if OPEC + decided to cut this week, the United States would announce the buyback of up to 200 million barrels to refill its strategic reserve, an emergency stockpile of oil, which the United States has been exploiting this year to help in Reducing oil prices.
The senior US official said that the Biden administration had made it clear to OPEC + months ago that the United States was ready to buy OPEC oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The official added that the idea was to inform OPEC+ that the United States "will not leave them if they invest money in production, and therefore, prices will not collapse if global demand falls."

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“Shocking and dangerous” .. an Iraqi expert comments on the “OPEC Plus” decision to reduce production
 

Baghdad - people  

On Wednesday, Professor of Economics at the University of Basra, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, shed light on the decision of "OPEC Plus" to reduce its production by two million barrels per day.  

  

  

  

In a clarification entitled "OPEC Plus Shocks the United States", followed by "Nass" (October 5, 2022), Al-Marsoumi said, "The OPEC + alliance took a shocking and dangerous decision to reduce production by two million barrels per day, starting from next November."  

  

He added, "It is a very large and unexpected reduction that will push oil prices back to the level of 100 dollars a barrel, and perhaps the United States will respond to this decision by additional withdrawals from the American strategic stockpile."  

  

He continued, "The shares of the reductions have not yet appeared on the members, but according to the previous criteria, Iraq's share of the reduction will be 240 thousand barrels per day, which means a decrease in Iraq's production share from 4.651 million barrels to 4.411 million barrels per day."  

  

Earlier, the “OPEC +” group agreed to reduce daily oil production by two million barrels per day.  

  

During its meeting in Vienna, the group decided to start implementing this reduction as of next November.    

  

The countries of the "OPEC +" group, which includes oil-producing countries from the Organization of "OPEC" and outside, held a meeting in Vienna today to discuss oil markets and production strategy, amid fears of an economic recession in the world, which will affect the demand for crude.    

  

Earlier, the "Financial Times" newspaper, quoting informed sources, revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of "OPEC +" are planning to announce significant reductions in oil production quantities.    

  

A month ago, the group agreed to a slight increase in production in September, at a rate of 100,000 barrels, after it was subjected to severe pressure from the United States and other major oil consumers to increase production in light of high prices.    

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After the “OPEC +” decision

SOMO determines Iraq's share of reducing oil production

2022.10.05 - 19:38
SOMO determines Iraq's share of reducing oil production
 

Baghdad - people   

The National Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) revealed that Iraq's share of the OPEC Plus decision to reduce production by about two million barrels will be 220 thousand barrels per day.  

  

  

  

The Director-General of the National Oil Company (SOMO), Alaa Al-Yasarifi, said in a statement to the official agency followed by “Nass” (October 5, 2022), that “the OPEC Plus decision that was taken today will prevent the continued decline in oil prices and contribute to their rise, especially as it lost 35% of its value in The last days and months.  

  

He added, "If a decision is not issued to reduce production, this will lead to a continuous decline that may bring prices to 50 dollars per barrel," noting that "Iraq's share of the reduction will be 220 thousand barrels per day."  

  

The White House confirmed, earlier, that US President Joe Biden was disappointed by the OPEC Plus decision to reduce production by about two million barrels, starting next November.  

  


And the White House said in a statement seen by “Nass” (October 5, 2022), that “Biden will decide to continue withdrawing from US oil reserves in the wake of the OPEC Plus decision and will ask Congress for additional powers to counter the impact of the OPEC Plus decision on oil prices.”    


He added, "President Biden called on American energy companies to work on reducing fuel prices, following the new OPEC Plus decision."    

  

On Wednesday, a professor of economics at the University of Basra, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, highlighted the "OPEC Plus" decision to reduce its production by two million barrels per day.  

  

In a clarification entitled "OPEC Plus Shocks the United States", followed by "Nass" (October 5, 2022), Al-Marsoumi said, "The OPEC + alliance took a shocking and dangerous decision to reduce production by two million barrels per day, starting from next November."      

  

He added, "It is a very large and unexpected reduction that will push oil prices back to the level of 100 dollars a barrel, and perhaps the United States will respond to this decision by additional withdrawals from the American strategic stockpile."      

  

He continued, "The shares of the reductions have not yet appeared on the members, but according to the previous criteria, Iraq's share of the reduction will be 240 thousand barrels per day, which means a decrease in Iraq's production share from 4.651 million barrels to 4.411 million barrels per day."      

  

Earlier, the “OPEC +” group agreed to reduce daily oil production by two million barrels per day.  

  

During its meeting in Vienna, the group decided to start implementing this reduction as of next November.        

  

The countries of the "OPEC +" group, which includes oil-producing countries from the Organization of "OPEC" and outside, held a meeting in Vienna today to discuss oil markets and production strategy, amid fears of an economic recession in the world, which will affect the demand for crude.        

  

Earlier, the "Financial Times" newspaper, quoting informed sources, revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of "OPEC +" are planning to announce significant reductions in oil production quantities.        

  

A month ago, the group agreed to a slight increase in production in September, at a rate of 100,000 barrels, after it was subjected to severe pressure from the United States and other major oil consumers to increase production in light of high prices.   

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Because your at Maximum output now

 

 

Oil Minister: Iraqi exports will not be affected by the decision to cut production
 

Baghdad - people   

On Wednesday, Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar commented on the recent “OPEC +” decision, hoping that it would contribute to stabilizing global markets and supporting crude oil prices.  

  

  

  

The ministry stated in a statement received by "Nass" (October 5, 2022), that "after attending the forty-fifth meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, and the thirty-third ministerial meeting of the (OPEC Plus) group, which was held at the headquarters of the General Secretariat of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). , in the Austrian capital, Vienna, as the ministerial meeting discussed developments and challenges facing the oil market, and the implications of that, especially after the recent decline in oil prices and the instability of oil markets, the Minister of Oil said: The keenness of the producing countries in OPEC and its allies from outside organization to achieve greater stability and balance between supply and demand.  

  

The minister stressed, according to the statement, that “the ministerial meeting seeks and aims to achieve more stability and stability in the long term,” noting “the gains made by the OPEC Plus group in reaching and maintaining stability and balance for the oil markets, which was positively reflected on the economies of the producing countries.” Including Iraq.  

  

The minister explained that "the decision to reduce production came in line with the wise policy pursued by OPEC Plus during the past years, which is to be proactive in precautionary measures to confront the fluctuations of the oil market," noting that "the ministerial meeting of OPEC Plus decided to reduce total production by 2 million barrels per day, With the contribution of all producing countries to OPEC Plus, and according to the production levels required for each of them, as of November 2022.  

  

He explained that "the decision aims to protect the oil markets from the negative effects as a result of the conditions and challenges facing global markets," noting that "Iraq aims to maintain its reference production level, which was set by the agreement of the member states in July 2021."  

  

He explained that "Iraq's exports will not be affected by this reduction, as a result of managing internal consumption and in line with the decision to reduce production, in order to preserve the current export capabilities," saying: "We hope that this decision will return with more stability and balance to global oil markets, and to the national economy." .

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International banks: Oil will catch fire after the “OPEC +” decision, and exceed $110
 

Baghdad - people  

International banks expected, on Thursday, that oil prices would ignite after the recent “OPEC +” decision, to exceed $110 a barrel.  

  

 

  

  

The expectations of oil prices, which have witnessed many cuts in recent weeks, in light of expectations of a decline in demand in light of the economic slowdown and inflation that are plaguing the markets, after the largest OPEC + production cut from 2020.  

  

This comes while markets are awaiting Washington's reaction to the decision to cut, which the US President believes was not necessary, as he accused the group that it did not take into account global conditions and that the decision came in the interest of Russia.  

  

US investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of Brent oil for the fourth quarter by $10 a barrel to $110, according to a note from several analysts.  

  

"All the developments we've seen on the supply side at this point are pretty much setting the stage for what we think will be higher prices at the end of this year," Damien Corvalin, head of energy research, told Bloomberg TV.  

  

The adjustment comes as a result of OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November, and the note states that OPEC+ plans to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, which is a real decrease of 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the bank's forecast for November.  

  

US investment bank Goldman Sachs said the price is likely to rise further if the production plan is adhered to and market conditions continue to improve.  

  

Goldman Sachs believes the cut makes sense, albeit exceptional, as it increases the oil group's revenue with the least amount of sacrifice in future profits.  

  

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)  

"Brent crude will find its way to $100 a barrel faster than we previously expected after the OPEC+ move," Morgan Stanley analysts including Martin Ratts said in a note.  

  

"The cut threatens to tighten markets significantly, although much depends on how Russian oil production prices once the EU embargo comes into effect," they said.  

  

The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude from $5 to $100 for the first three months of 2023, while keeping its forecast unchanged for the next three quarters.  

  

UPS Group AG  

"The oil market is expected to tighten further and the price of Brent crude will advance above $100 in the coming quarters," analysts including Giovanni Stonovo said in a note.  

  

The OPEC+ cut will combine with the European ban on Russian imports, the possible end of OECD releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and increased demand from the switch from gas to oil this winter to put pressure on the market.  

  

ING Group NV  

The move is enough to shift the balance for next year, said Warren Patterson, head of strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore, pushing the market into shortages for the whole of 2023.  

  

He said there was a clear upside to the bank's forecast for Brent at $97 a barrel for next year.  

  

However, further releases from US strategic reserves are seen as possible, although they are likely to have only a limited impact.  

  

Citigroup Inc  

Analysts including Francesco Martuccia and Ed Morse said in a note that while the cut is significant on paper, the effective cut would be much smaller because the group has already failed to reach its stakes.  

  

They added that the move could backfire on OPEC+ if it hurts economic activity and oil demand further.  

  

RBC Capital Markets  

Analysts including Helima Croft said in a note that the actual cut was likely to be around 1 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia accounting for more than half.  

  

While the White House has indicated that there may be more releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it is unlikely that there will be another massive release in the near term, they said.  

  

SPI Asset Management  

“The oil complex is busy gauging the complexities of actual reduction considering imbalances between production and quotas,” Managing Partner Stephen Innes said in a note.  

  

He stated that Brent crude may rise above $100 in the next few quarters.  

  

$ 100  

After the cuts were approved, Vitol Energy Trading expected Brent to approach $100 by the end of the year, and added that the market value of Brent crude ranged between $80 and $100 a barrel.  

  

Chris Beck, a member of Vitol's executive committee and chairman of VTTI, said Wednesday that he expects Brent crude to be close to $100 a barrel by the end of the year.  

  

On the other hand, JPMorgan expected Washington to take countermeasures by releasing more quantities of stockpiles.  

  

Saudi Arabia says that it seeks to prevent fluctuations and not target a specific price of oil, and the international benchmark Brent crude is trading at stability today, Wednesday, at $ 92 a barrel, after its rise yesterday.  

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Abu Kellal: The decision of {OPEC +} is an indication of the end of the era of unipolarity
  
{Political: Al Furat News} Baligh Abu Kell, a member of the General Assembly of the National Wisdom Movement, considered the decision of (OPEC Plus) to reduce oil production by one million barrels per day "an indication of the end of one polarity in the world."

Abu Kellal said in a tweet on Twitter: "The decision of {OPEC +} to reduce oil production despite the threat of America and the opposition of the European Union and the advent of winter is a strategic and exceptional political decision that indicates the realism of the end of the era of unipolarity for this world and that there are radical changes taking place in it!"
Today, OPEC Plus decided to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day, following the meeting of the alliance for the first time directly since March 2020, at the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the Austrian capital Vienna, with the participation of Iraq.
This reduction is the largest since the Corona pandemic, and the second in a row for “OPEC +” after the alliance symbolically reduced production by 100,000 barrels per day at a meeting last month.
The decision will enter into force from next November.
Iraq's share of this reduction amounted to 220,000 barrels per day, according to the National Oil Marketing Company (SOMO).
Al-Yasiri pointed out that "Iraq's share of the reduction will be, and as 
soon as the "OPEC +" decision is issued, US President Joe Biden expressed his "disappointment", describing the production cut as a "short-sighted decision."
According to the White House, Biden asked the Ministry of Energy to distribute 10 An additional million barrels of strategic reserves next month.”
The White House indicated that “it is clear that OPEC + is allied with Russia and that the decision of OPEC + to reduce production was a mistake and is in Russia’s own interest.”

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Oil Minister: The OPEC + decision is purely technical..and comments on the negative responses of the West
  
{Economist: Al Furat News} Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar counted the OPEC Plus decision yesterday to reduce the production rate to two million barrels per day {purely technical}.

Abdul-Jabbar said in a press statement, "The decision of the (OPEC +) ministers in Vienna to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day, starting from next November, came based on extensive studies carried out by specialized technical committees and because of the surplus in the supply of crude in market".
He added, before leaving Vienna after his participation in the (OPEC +) meeting, that "the reports submitted to us indicated that there are oil supplies in the market that exceed demand and were estimated at about one million to one million and 200 thousand barrels per day, in addition to the state of uncertainty hanging over the market."
And he indicated that "OPEC +'s responsibility to consumers and the market in general is based on protecting the energy market's balance," noting that "if we notice any changes or imbalances in the supply and demand equation, the ministers will meet again to restore things to normal."
Abdul-Jabbar explained that "the decision taken is final at this stage in view of the current market factors and its balances, but the possibility of reversing such reductions may become a thing of the past if market conditions change."
He stressed that "the (OPEC +) decision is purely technical, and the group will not allow it to enter into any political disputes."
On the negative reactions of Western countries to the decision to reduce production, the Iraqi Oil Minister said that he "understands the concerns of consumers and this is their right."
But at the same time, he pointed out that the price of a barrel at an average of $93 remains reasonable and not at frightening levels compared to the price of gas.
The Minister of Oil considered that the problem today is one of gas, not oil.
He continued, "(OPEC +) bears a moral responsibility before consumers and a legal responsibility before its people," stressing that "(OPEC +) will bear and will continue to bear this responsibility honestly, as it has done over the past many years."

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 2022-10-07 03:49
 

Shafaq News/ The Secretary-General of OPEC, Haitham Al-Ghais, said on Friday that its decision to reduce oil production is considered and was taken unanimously by member states.

In a statement to the Saudi-funded Al Arabiya satellite channel, Al-Ghaid said that the OPEC + decision carries wide flexibility to deal with the expected economic uncertainty.

He explained that the decisions of OPEC + aimed at balancing supply and demand, not prices, adding that the decision was proactive and thoughtful and was taken unanimously by 23 countries.

Al-Ghaid also indicated that the organization does not take sides with one party against another, and we are not a political organization, stressing that the organization is working to ensure oil flows.

On Wednesday, the Organization of (OPEC +) agreed to a new reduction in oil production, while oil prices rose in the US global market.

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energy
   

Economy News-Baghdad
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia responded to the latest US allegations, after the OPEC + decision was issued to reduce oil production by two million barrels, the largest reduction since the Corona pandemic 2020.

Washington claimed that the decision was not in the interest of the global economy and that it took into account the Russian side, and US President Joe Biden expressed his anger at the decision, while the White House confirmed that it was studying the available alternatives to respond.

Kingdom's response

Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, responded to allegations that the kingdom was responsible for rising US gas prices, instead saying that insufficient US refining capacity was behind the rising costs.

Al-Jubeir said in an interview with Fox News: "Oil is not a weapon ... We look at oil as a commodity and we look at all of this important for the global economy in which we have a large share ... Saudi Arabia does not politicize oil or oil decisions."

The Saudi foreign minister added that the notion that Saudi Arabia would do this to harm the United States or political participation in any way is not true at all.

"With due respect, the reason prices are so high in the United States is that you've had a refining shortage for over 20 years, and you haven't built refineries in decades," Al-Jubeir continued.

Overview

US gasoline prices rose sharply early this year due to high demand and tight global refining supplies, but have begun to decline after peaking in June.

The national average is now up 20 cents from its mid-September lows of $3.67 a gallon, driven in large part by gains in the Midwest and West Coast.

Industry estimates indicate that US oil refineries were using 91 percent of their capacity as of early October, but overall US refining capacity has fallen since the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand in early 2020.

problem of the west

Al-Jubeir said: “You have a number of refineries (TADAWUL: 2030) in the Midwest that have been closed... As a result of this shortage of refining capacity, you have a shortage of gasoline and an increase in the price of gasoline, and it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand for crude oil.

Al-Jubeir added that OPEC member states, in addition to Russia, are "very committed to ensuring stability in oil markets for the benefit of consumers and producers."

Kingdom parking

"Over the past year when we saw shortages, we gradually increased our entire production," the Saudi foreign minister said.

Al-Jubeir continued: "Now, we are witnessing - we mean the 22 countries that make up OPEC Plus - we are witnessing a shortage, we are witnessing headwinds in terms of geopolitics, and we are witnessing headwinds in terms of growth rates and slowdowns in economies around the world."

Al-Jubeir added: “We want to make sure that we act in a precautionary manner to ensure that we do not experience a collapse in energy markets, which would harm not only producers but also consumers and the global economy.”

Al-Jubeir said this comes after facing criticism, especially from the United States, over the group's decision to produce oil from November.

Price speculation

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir also played down speculation that oil prices would rise due to OPEC Plus production cuts.

“The decision was unanimous,” Al-Jubeir said. “We saw ... a decrease in demand for crude oil going forward and there were many factors that would have an impact on the supply/demand fundamentals and we wanted to make sure that we were proactive or proactive and that we avoid the potential collapse of the energy markets that It will not benefit consumers or producers.”

Al-Jubeir added, “We will continue to monitor the situation carefully as we have done over the past year and determine what the market needs. We will make decisions accordingly as we have done not only over the past year, but over the past decades.”

 
 

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Update 10/09/2022 - 5:14 PM
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Arabic and international
   

Economy News _ Baghdad
America launched an attack on the OPEC alliance after the latter cut its oil production by two million barrels per day, after oil prices fell to less than $90 a barrel.

America: The cut is supportive of Russia

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the OPEC + group's decision to reduce oil production was "unhelpful and unwise" for the global economy, especially emerging markets, expressing its deep concern about developing countries and the problems they face.

The White House also said in a statement signed by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chief Economic Adviser Brian Dees that Biden was "disappointed by the short-sighted OPEC+ decision."

As for presidential spokeswoman Karen-Jean-Pierre said that the decision "constitutes a mistake," adding, "It is clear that through his decision today, the OPEC + alliance stands with Russia." 

India surprised by the amount of the reduction

As for India, it is the third largest consumer and importer of oil in the world, and it relies heavily on its imports from the Arab Gulf states and Russia in the recent period. It was surprised by the decision.

Indian Oil and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that the global market was preparing to reduce production by about one million barrels per day, so many countries in the world were surprised by the decision to reduce production by two million barrels.

The Indian minister expected that oil prices will rise due to the lack of crude supplies that will be put on the global market, adding that the rise in oil prices will contribute to exacerbating the economic stagnation, which in turn will lead to a reduction in demand, and the matter will turn in a vicious circle. 

OPEC: America's emotional statements

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said, after the first in attendance meeting of coalition members since March 2020, that the priority of "OPEC +" is "to maintain a sustainable oil market."

Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar said that the decision prevents the continued decline in oil prices. Sumo added that Iraq's share of production after the reduction will reach 220,000 barrels per day

Meanwhile, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir confirmed that his country does not "politicize" oil and that the rise in oil prices in America is due to a lack of refining capacity, in response to Washington's criticism of the OPEC + decision to cut production during its meeting last week.

Al-Jubeir considered that the statements made by US President Joe Biden and a number of members of the Democratic Party were "emotional" and interfered with the preparation of the upcoming midterm elections in America.

The organization, which includes 13 countries and its 10 allies led by Russia, agreed that during their meeting in Vienna it was agreed to cut production by two million barrels per day, starting in November, in what is the largest reduction since the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020.

 
 

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Added 10/09/2022 - 10:24 AM
Update 10/09/2022 - 3:25 PM
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 2022-10-12 08:18
 

 

Shafaq News / The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" reduced its forecast for the growth of oil demand by about 500 thousand barrels per day and 400 thousand barrels per day in 2022 and 2023, respectively, due mainly to the slowdown in the global economy, and the "zero Covid" strategy in China, in addition to to geopolitical uncertainty.

In the oil market report for the month of October, OPEC expected that the demand for oil would grow during the current year by 2.6 million barrels per day.

The report predicted that the demand for oil in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day during 2022, while demand in non-OECD countries is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC lowered its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2022 by about 200,000 barrels per day, and also kept expectations of demand growth for its members’ oil unchanged.

The report showed that OPEC oil production rose by 618,000 barrels per day in August, driven by the rise in Libyan oil production.

The OPEC + alliance had announced a reduction in the oil production ceiling by two million barrels per day, starting from next November until December 2023, in what is considered the largest production cut since the outbreak of the Corona epidemic.

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 2022-10-13 02:12
 

 

Shafaq News / Economists expected today, Thursday, that the United States would resort to using the “No OPEC” law, in the face of the organization’s countries, after the decision to reduce the oil production ceiling, while Saudi Arabia anticipated the events and expressed its “astonishment” at the American reaction and “lack of understanding the role.” the real organization.

 

The OPEC + alliance had decided at its last meeting held on October 5 (2022) - to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day, starting from November 2022 until December of next year (2023).

 

Biden had pledged to consult with Congress on additional tools to reduce OPEC's control of oil prices, a reference to a multi-decade effort to file antitrust lawsuits against OPEC for organizing supply cuts.

 

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer said they are looking at all legislative tools to better deal with the OPEC+ decision, including the OPEC (No-OPEC) litigation bill.

 

And last year, the US House Judiciary Committee approved a similar bill, even though the "No to OPEC" bill has not passed the US Congress for nearly 22 years.

 

Energy economist Anas Al-Hajji said, "There is a great push in the US Senate towards an old law, which is (No to OPEC), which has been passed twice in the past in the Congress and the Senate, and the Americans have revived it during the past two days, and it may pass at any moment, It just needs a vote and the president's signature."

 

Al-Hajji added, "If the law is passed, then US President Joe Biden can use it to bargain with the Gulf states."

 

Lawsuits against OPEC would strip it of its immunity to US complaints, and allow the attorney general to sue the organization or any of its members on charges of collusion to control oil prices.

 

Saudi Arabia defends OPEC

 

For his part, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan expressed his “astonishment” at the reactions to the (OPEC +) decision, saying that “the decision is a purely economic decision, as all OPEC + decisions are taken unanimously, despite the different political orientations of the countries participating in the agreement. The coalition agreed to this decision."

 

The Saudi Foreign Minister stressed that the re-introduction of the law by some to sue OPEC, "not OPEC", is surprising, in light of a lack of real understanding of the role played by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in order to stabilize markets.

 

The Saudi minister pointed out that "when prices fell significantly during the Corona crisis, there were requests not only from the US administration, but also from Congress, to the Kingdom and OPEC, to work to support the stability of oil markets."

 

Bin Farhan stated that "everyone knows that the OPEC system serves the interests of the market, consumers and producers, and talking about dismantling this system may be emotional."

 

Opponents of the US bill

 

In turn, the oil and gas group of the American Petroleum Institute and the American Chamber of Commerce opposed the "No to OPEC" bill, as they saw that "the energy production boom in America limited the influence of this organization."

 

In addition, international energy companies opposed the bill, saying that "passing it may be a revenge and retaliation against OPEC."

 

However, there are slim chances of moving forward with such measures, especially since the bill to sue OPEC has been introduced multiple times over the past 22 years and has made no progress, and implementing any action suggested or threatened by lawmakers would lead to a broader breach of the relationship. With Saudi Arabia, which has been a major focus of US foreign policy since the 1940s, according to economic analysts.

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 2022-10-14 09:57
 

Shafaq News/ Oil prices compensated for losses incurred earlier in the session, and rose in Asian transactions, today, Friday, supported by the weakness of the dollar and the decline in US fuel stocks.

Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.3%, to $94.88 a barrel by 06:22 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $89.47 a barrel.

"Weak US dollar and strong recovery of risky assets lifted oil prices. The momentum of recovery may continue in the Asian session today," said Tina Ting, market analyst at CMC Markets.

"The OPEC + production cut will continue to support crude prices, along with the potential recovery of demand in China in the fourth quarter of the year if Beijing eases anti-Covid restrictions," she added.

The (OPEC +) group, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and independent oil producers, including Russia, announced last week to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day.

Oil prices were also supported by a sharp decline in US distillate stocks, which came at a time when there is an expected increase in demand for heating oil with the approach of winter.

And the US Energy Information Administration stated that distillate stocks, including fuel and heating oil, fell by 4.9 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels, their lowest level since May, compared to expectations for a decrease of two million barrels.

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