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Ronscarpa is RIGHT


rockfl9
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Although he may be a little optimistic !

When the CBI devalued the dinar the new rate should have been  about 1600. But the MOF/CBI realized that would be too harsh. So they made an assumption   that oil prices would recover and something would result in more employment. Neither happened and all the while the population has increased. 

So the budget will start off in no better shape than it was in 2021.

The obvious choice would be another devaluation.  But a new PM and MOF may not do it! They may choose to default or seek new loans. That would not be good.

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at the 1190 rate the CBI would be in DEFAULT within A YEAR IS WHAT Alawi was saying . In default the CBI no longer controls the rate , Then the GOI has no control over the sources for the budget,  

YOU dont want that . 

Alawi is trying to prepare the next government . In spite of a year of slightly better oil income the finances are weak.

The CBI web site is not clear about what the actual reserves are, but it is clear that the amount of IQD  have increased.

When he was appointed Kazimi said it woud be for only one term. He may be asked to say on but that would be at his option and he may demand more control to do so.

If the current rate doesnt keep the CBI on the BLACK they will have to devalue again.  

 

 

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From the articles not from a Guru diehard!!

 

 
 Baghdad: Haider Falih Al-Rubaie
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Dr. Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that Iraq will witness a clear economic recovery during the next year 2022, and it is likely that the general budget will not witness financial hardships or financing restrictions due to a lack of revenues, attributing that economic improvement to the recovery of the energy market and the boom in demand for oil. At the same time, it is expected that the rise in oil prices will contribute to achieving an annual added revenue of about 17 trillion dinars.
 
Despite the positives achieved by the continuous rise in global oil prices, which exceeded the $80 barrier, represented in reducing the budget deficit gap, and financing many important strategic projects, economists stress the harm of finding financing outlets other than oil, warning of the danger of continuing to rely Totally on oil revenues to finance public budgets.
 
total expenses
On the possibility that the increase in oil prices would contribute to filling the budget deficit gap, Saleh said during a statement to “Al-Sabah” that “the matter depends on the total expenditure ceilings in the budget, and if we assume that the spending ceiling in the 2022 budget is the same in the current year 2021 and that the average price of a barrel The oil achieved throughout the year is not less than $75, as the oil revenues will alone cover the total expenditures in the budget, and some of the surplus will be achieved.”
 
financial surplus
The financial advisor to the Prime Minister believes that “for the first time, the increase in oil prices will contribute to achieving a financial surplus in the budget without the need to borrow, and if borrowing is achieved, it does not exceed 3% of the gross domestic product stipulated in the financial management law in force due to reconstruction projects. It is ongoing, and its financing is linked to international loans,” he said, adding that “these loans do not exceed three billion dollars per year, in addition to the construction loan whose bonds are offered for circulation to the public at one trillion dinars.”
 
low public debt
In addition to the achievements that are expected to be achieved economically thanks to the recovery in oil prices, other expectations made by Chancellor Saleh regarding the external public debt, it is likely that this debt, which now amounts to 20 billion dollars, will witness a continuous waiver during the coming period, and that the public budget bears the debt extinguishing services and according to Drawn timings.
Saleh pointed out that "the internal debt is still the largest at the present time, which exceeds the external debt three times," noting that "the internal debt remains confined within the framework of the government financial system and is not related to the public."
 
Iraq is recovering
Saleh expressed his confidence that “an economic recovery will occur during the next year 2022, and that the budget will not witness financial hardships or financing restrictions due to a lack of revenues,” attributing this recovery to “the recovery in global oil prices, as well as the increase in the proceeds of Iraq’s oil production by an additional 400,000 barrels.” daily,” adding that “this addition to the current total oil production will contribute to achieving an annual added revenue of about 17 trillion dinars, if the average price of a barrel of oil reaches $75.”
Despite the improvement in oil revenues in the current year, Saleh pointed out that “the growth indicators in the gross domestic product still indicate a modest (less than positive 1%), and this situation will mostly indicate a slow annual growth that remains below the annual population growth rate. of 2.6%.
The Arab Monetary Fund had expected in the fifteenth edition of the “Arab Economic Prospects” report, which includes an update of the international economic environment and its repercussions on Arab countries, and expectations of economic growth and inflation in Arab countries during 2021 and 2022, that the Iraqi economy will witness growth rates despite the current circumstances. As a result of the rise in oil prices and the gradual decline of the effects of the pandemic, which will lead to an improvement in global economic activity and a rise in demand for petroleum products.
The report expected that the measures taken by the Central Bank to reduce the exchange rate, the initiatives directed at encouraging investment, and the government's adoption of a number of reforms would contribute to supporting the output in the non-oil sector.
The 2021 budget and its growth-enhancing investment spending will support economic prospects during 2021 and 2022.
It is expected that the real GDP will grow by 6.3% in 2021, and increase significantly in 2022 to reach 8%, which reflects the raising of the reference baseline for oil production for Iraq within the framework of the “OPEC +” agreement by about 100,000 barrels per day and the continued recovery of non-oil economic activities In light of the gradual improvement of internal conditions.
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Al-Kazemi’s advisor reveals the benefit of paying Kuwait’s compensation

 

 

1,722 Economy 2021/12/11 10:09 Baghdad today -

Baghdad Today, Saturday, the financial and economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed the benefit of paying Kuwait’s compensation. Saleh said, to (Baghdad Today), that "the end of the Kuwait compensation file will add to the budget more than two billion dollars annually, and the end of the Kuwait war compensation, which amounts to 3% for every barrel of oil that is exported, will add to the general budget of Iraq a monthly amount of approximately 200 million dollars, according to current oil prices. He added that "this means about $2.4 billion will be added to the general budget annually, an amount that will inevitably lead to providing part of the country's financial sustainability, and that this amount can be allocated to income-generating investment projects, which enhances part of Iraq's economic situation by relying on its own resources." ".

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Quote

The report expected that the measures taken by the Central Bank to reduce the exchange rate, the initiatives directed at encouraging investment, and the government's adoption of a number of reforms would contribute to supporting the output in the non-oil sector.

The articles state that the exchange rate remain unchanged for years. Doesn't mean they can't add Purchasing power to the rate that it @ the moment...reforms would contribute to supporting the output in the non-oil sector....

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 12/11/2021 at 10:22 AM, yota691 said:

The articles state that the exchange rate remain unchanged for years. Doesn't mean they can't add Purchasing power to the rate that it @ the moment...reforms would contribute to supporting the output in the non-oil sector....

Iraq lives on petrodollars.  They cant buy more stuff unless they improve the rate to the dollar. 

They changed the rate to take pressure off of the CBI.. 

 

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