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An American bank expects the Turkish lira to collapse against the dollar to unprecedented levels


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 2021-10-21 07:35
 

Shafaq News/ The Turkish currency fell against the dollar today, Thursday, to historical levels after the Turkish Central Bank decided to reduce the main interest rate, which is a basic demand of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

 

According to the "Bloomberg" agency, the dollar exchange rate rose to 9.4206 lira, an increase of 2.19%, and this is the first time that the Turkish currency recorded this level.

 

The lira lost 20% of its value this year, and half of this decline came since the beginning of last month, when the central bank began giving easing signals, despite the rise in inflation to about 20%.

 

On the 15th of this month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dismissed three policy makers at the Central Bank, deepening the lira's decline.

 

The Russian "Novosti" agency reported, earlier today, Thursday, that the Turkish Central Bank reduced the main interest rate from 18% to 16% annually.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly called on the central bank to ease monetary policy, and analysts believe that his intervention has eroded the credibility of monetary policy in the past few years.

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The Turkish lira recorded a historic decline against the major currencies

Economie11:38 - 22/10/2021

 
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Follow-up – Mawazine News:
The Turkish lira recorded, on Friday morning, a historical decline against foreign currencies, and it exceeded the 9.60 limit against one US dollar.
The exchange rates of the dollar, the euro and the pound sterling against the Turkish lira in today’s trading were as follows:
                            Selling Buying
Dollars 9.6248 9.6083
Euro 11.1967 11.1904
Sterling Pounds 13.2642 13.2506 
The Turkish lira continues to decline after the Turkish Central Bank announced, yesterday, Thursday, the interest rate cut to 16 percent by an amount of 200 basis points, as the Turkish lira fell following the Monetary Policy Board's statement to 9.47 against the dollar and 11 lira against the euro. Ended 29/A 4

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The headquarters of the Central Bank of Turkey
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Turkey

Informed sources said that Turkey's state banks are expected to cut the interest rate on loans by about 200 basis points on Monday, following the announcement of an unexpectedly large rate cut by the central bank last week.

The three banking sources told Reuters that three of the major state banks, Halkbank , Waqf Bank and Ziraat Bank, are expected to cut interest on corporate and individual loans, mortgages and other loans.

On Friday, one bank sent an email to its employees informing them of the bank's intention to reduce the cost of borrowing by 200 basis points. Another banking source said that government banks will cut interest rates on Monday "by a large percentage comparable to the 200 basis points that the central bank has cut from the repo rate."

The cultivation of the bank that he had no comment and declined to comment create a bank did not want the bank to stop immediately on a request for comment.

The Turkish state wealth fund also did not immediately respond, and the fund fully owns Ziraat Bank, a 75 percent stake in Halkbank and a 36 percent stake in Waqf Bank.

The central bank declined to comment on the state banks' plans.

The lira had already reached record low levels last week after the central bank announced a cut in the interest rate by 200 basis points, despite the increase in inflation, which constituted a shocking move that economists and opposition representatives described as reckless.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  •  Time: 11/20/2021 00:11:56
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  •  Reading: 2,093 times
For the eighth day, the Turkish lira hits a record low
  
{Economic: Al Furat News} The Turkish lira gave up its gains at the beginning of Friday's trading, and fell by about two percent, hitting a new record low.

The Turkish lira slumped a day after falling nearly 6 percent when the central bank, under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, cut interest rates again and signaled more monetary easing was on the way even as inflation risks rose.

It initially rose to 10.83 pounds against the dollar, before falling back to 11.32, to fall to its lowest level ever for the eighth consecutive session.

And at 16.32 GMT, it was trading at 11.2, which increases the risks to the economy and the political future of Erdogan.

The Turkish currency, the worst performer among emerging market currencies, tumbled more than 12 percent this week alone, affected by the central bank's decision to cut its interest rate by 100 basis points to 15 percent, despite inflation rising near 20 percent.

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So how is it that when the interest rate of the US is lowered to near zero the USD is stronger, that when in Europe the rate is negative the Euro stays globally strong, but then when Turkey reduces their interest rate the TL becomes weaker? 
 

Looks to me like the systemic distribution of wealth the USD leverages as the world reserve currency has moved from the devaluation of South American currencies across the Atlantic Ocean landing in both Asia and Europe at once through Turkey. 
 

Even a child understands if there’s one full plate of cookies on the table that for one kid to get a mostly full plate of cookies the other kid gets less.

 

BTC is going to transition to the world reserve currency. This will remove the elements of human nature while managing of human nature; the solution to removing corruption from established architectural systems.

 

Anyways, back to the original question. Why the inverse relationship with respect to interest rates and currency value for Turkey? How does this work? Why is this presentation of market divergence in existence?

 

I’m very intrigued.

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  • 2 weeks later...
 
 2021-11-30 06:22
 

Shafaq News/ The Turkish lira fell on Tuesday to its lowest level after exceeding the 13 lira / dollar threshold again on its way to its lowest level ever.

The decline of the Turkish lira came after negative data regarding the sharp contraction of the growth of the Turkish economy, coinciding with news that an investigation into the violent decline of the lira had begun in November, according to the investing economic network.

negative data

Data from the Statistical Institute of Turkey showed today, Tuesday, that the Turkish economy returned to recording a significant contraction after the sharp decline in the country's GDP growth.

Gross domestic product growth declined by the end of the third quarter ending on November 30 to 7.4%, compared to estimates of 7.5% growth, while the previous reading recorded a growth of 22% in the second quarter of this year.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected his country to achieve 9% economic growth in 2021, after suffering a blow similar to other economies in 2020 due to the Corona crisis.

An investigative body in Turkey announced that it will start investigations into foreign currency purchases after the significant decline in the lira during November, and will request a judicial prosecution if criminal activity is suspected.

At the end of the week, the Turkish president demanded an investigation into the lira's violent declines, and last Tuesday.

The Turkish president said that there will be no force to deter Turkey from implementing its new economic program aimed at increasing employment and production, and increasing the current account balance surplus.

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The Turkish currency index is declining to the south and inflation is at 20 percent
The Turkish currency index is declining to the south and inflation is at 20 percent

The Turkish lira plunged to an all-time low of 14 against the dollar after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated his defense of a new economic model based on lower interest rates despite inflation approaching 20 percent.

And the Turkish lira recorded 13.87 against the dollar at the time of 2014 GMT, down from 12,8010 at the close on Monday .

The lira has lost more than 46 percent of its value this year.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dismissed Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan and appointed his successor, Nureddin Nabati.

Al-Nabati had published a controversial tweet on his Twitter account, indicating that Elvan would be dismissed and that he would take over the position in his place .

This comes at a time when the Turkish lira plunged to an all-time low of 14 against the dollar after Erdogan repeated his defense of a new economic model based on lower interest rates despite an inflation rate close to 20 percent .

Erdogan had ordered an investigation into possible currency manipulation after the lira fell sharply to record lows against the dollar .

Anadolu news agency reported that Erdogan has tasked the Government Oversight Board, an auditing body that reports to the presidency, to identify the institutions that have bought large amounts of foreign currency and to determine whether any manipulation has occurred .

 

Savings plans to meet the requirements of life and the future
/images/v2/2021/04/27/1433076/600/338/1-1433076.jpg
 
 
 

 

The lira plunged to record lows, after Erdogan pledged to stick to a policy of cutting interest rates. The currency lost more than 45 percent of its value this year, and recorded about half of those losses during the past two weeks .

During that speech, Erdogan said that his country was fighting an "economic war of independence" and would not yield to pressure to change course .

"We are witnessing manipulation around the exchange rate, interest rates and price hikes by those who want to take our country out of the equation, " he added.

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Yep, must have been the Minister of Finance responsible for the collapse of the Turkish Lira. 
“ Yip “ just woke up one day and said, WTF ??? That’s how it works in a dictatorship, huh. It’s everyone else’s fault.

 

Hang on, isn’t that what’s going on in the good ole USA right now ? OMG ! WTF !

( slaps both sides of his great big horsey head with both hooves, doing his best Home Alone  impersonation ). 
 

Of course here you NOW only need to have the IQ of a boiled potato to become POTUS...consequently, the designation given to leader of the USA & The “ Free World “ is Dicktater. 


...probably gonna get some backlash hate for this - lol.

Again, don’t care about your feelings snowflakes.

Edited by horsesoldier
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47 minutes ago, horsesoldier said:

Yep, must have been the Minister of Finance responsible for the collapse of the Turkish Lira. 
“ Yip “ just woke up one day and said, WTF ??? That’s how it works in a dictatorship, huh. It’s everyone else’s fault.

 

Hang on, isn’t that what’s going on in the good ole USA right now ? OMG ! WTF !

( slaps both sides of his great big horsey head with both hooves, doing his best Home Alone  impersonation ). 
 

Of course here you NOW only need to have the IQ of a boiled potato to become POTUS...consequently, the designation given to leader of the USA & The “ Free World “ is Dicktater. 


...probably gonna get some backlash hate for this - lol.

Again, don’t care about your feelings snowflakes.

Nope not from me I agree with you 100%!!!

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17 hours ago, horsesoldier said:

Of course here you NOW only need to have the IQ of a boiled potato to become POTUS...consequently, the designation given to leader of the USA & The “ Free World “ is Dicktater. 

And if you work for the media, you are a CommonTater!  

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 2021-12-03 04:43
 

Shafaq News/ The international credit rating agency, "Fitch", raised its forecast for Turkey's economic growth this year from 9.2% to 10.5%, but revised its outlook for the Turkish economy to negative.

This came according to a statement issued today by the agency, during which it reviewed assessments regarding the Turkish economy.

The statement stated that in the year 2020, which witnessed the start of the outbreak of the Corona virus in Turkey, the country was affected by this, and the gross domestic product increased by 1.8 percent.

The agency added, "It is expected that the country's economy will grow by 10.5 percent in 2021, instead of the 9.2 percent that the agency itself announced last September."

The agency also raised its forecast for the growth of the Turkish economy during the next year 2022 from 3.5% to 3.6%.

The agency maintained Turkey's credit rating at "BB-" and changed its outlook for the country from "stable" to "negative".

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On 10/21/2021 at 8:56 PM, horsesoldier said:

What happens when a Dictator who knows nothing about pretty much everything takes that country right into the crapper, blaming everyone & everything all the way down. 
More popcorn, more entertainment. The world has an over abundance of stupidly wicked people.

Are we talking Erdogan or Biden here ?:rolleyes:

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On 12/4/2021 at 1:02 PM, horsesoldier said:

I know....I’ll admit it, It’s my fault. Ma always said I was trouble

It's fun being the instigator isn't it?  I have always enjoyed getting other people to react.  Mostly, I like to be the instigator to get them to think differently!

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24 minutes ago, shixjr said:

It's fun being the instigator isn't it?  I have always enjoyed getting other people to react.  Mostly, I like to be the instigator to get them to think differently!


Agreed....no doubt most people if not all the folks ( as we get older & mature, eventually ) we hang with think outta da box. 

Those that for whatever the reason (s) can’t or won’t, well it’s always fun to “ light that fire “ and spark their thinking into a different reality. 
 

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 2021-12-13 02:57
 

Shafaq News/ The Turkish lira plunged from Monday's trading to its lowest level ever, exceeding the 14 lira / dollar barrier.

negative data

The collapse of the Turkish lira followed the release of the Turkish annual and monthly retail sales data, which revealed that retail sales fell on an annual basis to 15.2% compared to the previous reading of 15.9%.

On the other hand, retail sales fell on a monthly basis from 1.2% down to 0.9%, while the industrial production index fell to 8.5% compared to 8.9% in the previous reading, while expectations indicated that the index would record 8.3%.

The Turkish lira plunged during those moments of Monday's trading to a new all-time low below the 14 lira / dollar levels.

The lira is declining during those moments in the range of 3%, down to levels of 14.2830 lira / dollar, exceeding its previous historical low on the December 10 session at levels of 13.97 lira / dollar.

On the other hand, from the collapse of the Turkish lira, investors rushed to buy gold, as a hedge against the significant decline in the value of the Turkish lira, following these shocking data.

The Turkish gram of gold during these moments set new records, the highest ever, rising by nearly 40 lira per gram.

The Turkish gold gram increased during those moments by more than 4%, reaching levels of 832.25 lira / gram.

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