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Kurdish fears in Iraq of a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario


yota691
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Although there is a fundamental difference between the two countries, observers are suspicious of sthe similarities and common flaw

 

    
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Observers confirm that the United States will withdraw from the Kurdistan region of Iraq sooner or later (AFP)

 

 

Fears renewed at the political and popular levels in the Kurdistan region of Iraq of another "American betrayal" of the Kurds, similar to the repercussions of the withdrawal from Afghanistan , in light of the similarities between the two files, amid calls for strengthening the authority of state institutions and eliminating corruption.

And the Afghan government forces collapsed earlier this month at a rapid pace in front of the Taliban militants, which ended it a few days ago by controlling the capital, Kabul, after the withdrawal of the US army after an occupation that lasted about 20 years.

These developments sparked heated debates in the Kurdish community, which views many positions with suspicion towards the positions of the US administration accused of abandoning its "Kurdish allies" from the Iraqis in three historical evidence, since the collapse of the Kurdish revolution in 1975, through the events of the failure of the Kurdish uprising against Saddam Hussein's regime In 1991, about two million people fled to Turkey and Iran, the latest of which was the withdrawal of the Peshmerga forces from large areas in the face of the ISIS invasion of Nineveh Governorate and other areas of the country.

Although some see a fundamental difference between the Iraqi and Afghan files with regard to US interests, politicians and observers are suspicious of the similarities and common flaws represented in the absence of a national doctrine within the framework of a unified army, the multiplicity of armed factions divided according to national and sectarian beliefs, and corruption in the body The state, which caused the soldier and citizen to lose their national belief in defending a dilapidated regime, and it is one of the flaws whose repercussions are feared by Kurdish forces and politicians on the future of the Kurdish experience as well.

geopolitical location

Representative in the parliament of the Kurdish region, leader of the Kurdistan Islamic Union, Abu Bakr Heldani, did not hide these concerns, saying, “Our situation shares several points with the case of Afghanistan, as Washington has failed in Iraq as in the region, and was unable to establish a transparent and genuine democratic government that can be considered The state of citizenship, and all the huge money that it spent did not produce a national army far from partisan interventions, not to mention the rampant corruption in the Baghdad and Erbil governments and the absence of independent institutions.

He added, "But the difference lies in the geopolitical position of Iraq, and we have a neighboring country that has an influential role in managing the region's politics, in addition to Israel's security, which is a priority of Washington's concerns, and the country is rich in natural resources, especially oil, although the Americans will withdraw while maintaining missions. training the forces, but we hope that the Iraqi and Kurdish governments learn from the Afghan experience in order to avoid a similar catastrophe."

Heldani pointed out that Washington "failed the Kurds three times, and it is not far from failing us for the fourth time, as it pursues the principle that there is no permanent friendship but existing interests," stressing that "despite the responsibility placed on the Americans, the greater responsibility falls on our governments if they fail." In establishing a truly sovereign state with solid institutions, because the immediate political forces have largely lost their public legitimacy, for exploiting the country’s wealth for their narrow partisan interests, and according to the legal term, they are on the verge of collapse, but in a different scenario.

These fears took over the space of social networking sites, and citizens discussed via “Facebook” a question asked by one of the users of the site, “What prevents tomorrow or the day after tomorrow that Biden or his deputy come out to announce the withdrawal under the pretext that they are not ready to protect us indefinitely, after they spent billions To unify the Peshmerga forces, and make them a fortified military system, but the two Kurdish parties did not use the support optimally.”

Corrupt power and militias

The head of the "Justice Group" bloc in the regional parliament, Abdul Sattar Majid, wrote, wondering, "What will benefit us, America will withdraw sooner or later, and our situation is similar to Afghanistan, and the two countries share the presence of a corrupt authority and militias affiliated with people and parties." And he added, "For about 20 years, Washington spent $88 billion to form the Afghan army, but it did not resist for a month."

Kurdish affairs analyst Saman Noah agrees with Heldani not to rule out the recurrence of the Afghanistan scenario in another way, “Although Iraq is more institutionally cohesive, there are militias, even if they are officially included within the military system, that adopt an ideological ideology, and their goals do not always agree with the army, Especially in the issue of the possibility of siding with a particular group under a certain circumstance.

Regarding the similarities, he said, "We have pervasive corruption, which is the most dangerous threat to the state, and does not allow the emergence of strong national institutions, not to mention the negative aspects of the sectarian quota system that exists here. It is difficult to find someone who defends the system as a whole, but rather follows a specific party and here collapses occur."

On the other hand, politicians loyal to the two Kurdish parties ruling the region rule out the ability of Shiite militias or ISIS militants to storm the region in the "Taliban" manner, based on the principle that the Taliban movement is part of the social, clan and family fabric of the Afghan people, while the organization and the Iraqi militias do not. You have the tools to stay long in the territory.

Zakari Mousa, advisor to the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Masoud Barzani, revealed that "what happened in Afghanistan happened to us in a different form and circumstance, once when ISIS attacked Kurdistan in the absence of an American in 2014, and the Popular Mobilization attack to storm the region before the eyes of American forces in 2017, and in In both cases, our forces succeeded in repelling the two attacks."

Limited impact

In this aspect, Noah stressed that "the American presence in Iraq is limited in number, and its influence is also limited, but it is effective in Kurdistan, as it transcends to be a political and economic actor, and is more like a protection umbrella, and any withdrawal will create collapses, especially in the balance of the Iraqi political equation, and it will be It is easy for armed groups of any identity to threaten the experience of the region, which suffers from deep corruption, and this is what happened in 2014, when the Peshmerga forces collapsed before the invasion of ISIS before America and Tehran intervened to stop the organization from the outskirts of Erbil.

The Kurdish region has enjoyed a semi-independent entity from the Iraqi state since 1991, but the units of its forces known as the " Peshmerga " forces are still divided according to party affiliations, especially between the two main ruling parties, the Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union, which was led by the late Jalal Talabani. Despite the issuance of legislative decisions and the presence of a Ministry of Peshmerga, and the support provided for years as part of an initiative by the international coalition led by the United States.

Analyst Aref Ghorbani said that the fears and repercussions of the US withdrawal will fall exclusively on the region, citing the "different scene with Afghanistan" with the presence of Iranian-backed Shiite militias affiliated with the main ruling forces in Baghdad, and calling for the US withdrawal, unlike the Taliban movement, which came from outside the regime.

It is noteworthy that the Iraqi forces, backed by the Shiite "Popular Mobilization" forces, fought in late 2017 against the Kurdish forces, and were able to regain vast areas known as the "disputed areas between Erbil and Baghdad", after the Kurds organized a general referendum on secession from Iraq.

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Well Iraq wants the US out per Iran and the armed groups running around.

Stop blaming the US because you cannot get rid of the corruption and greed.

Sooner or later you will have to put the big boy pants on or I have a pair of big GIRL
PANTS with or without lace.  Your choice,  :P

 

2 hours ago, yota691 said:

ears renewed at the political and popular levels in the Kurdistan region of Iraq of another "American betrayal" of the Kurds, similar to the repercussions of the withdrawal from Afghanistan 

 

OOps left out the F in fears 

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1 hour ago, dinarham said:

If there's a lesson to be learned here , don't set up the population so that they are broke and helpless .

They're doing that right here at home dinarham, wonder if anybody notices besides me? U.S. Government is the enemy of the people here. I doubt they care about anyone else. My opinion of course!

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2 hours ago, 64jaguar said:

They're doing that right here at home dinarham, wonder if anybody notices besides me? U.S. Government is the enemy of the people here. I doubt they care about anyone else. My opinion of course!

It’s most countries. Take a look at what’s happening down under here in Australia.

 

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 2021-08-20 07:40
 

 

Shafaq News/ Sheikh Jaafar Sheikh Mustafa, Vice President of Kurdistan Region for Military Affairs, said that the international coalition forces will not leave Iraq.

 

Sheikh Jaafar said, in a statement carried by the National Union media, that he does not believe that the coalition forces will leave Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, noting that in Iraq there are several components, and there are Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, and everyone is involved in the federal government.

He also ruled out the possibility of any conflict between the Kurdistan Region and the federal government in the event of any withdrawal of coalition forces from the country.

Sheikh Jaafar added Sheikh Mustafa, a leader in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. In the Kurdistan Region, there are the Peshmerga forces, which are capable forces and were able to confront the most extremist and violent organizations in the world, which is ISIS, and they defeated it, without the help of any soldier from the coalition and were able to defend the people and land of the Kurdistan Region.

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