Afghanistan Central Banker Flees, Currency Plummets Amid Turmoil

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Economy

Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries. Many years of war and political instability have left the country in ruins, and dependent on foreign aid. The main source of income in the country is agriculture, and during its good years, Afghanistan produces enough food and food products to provide for the people, as well as to create a surplus for export. The major food crops produced are: corn, rice, barley, wheat, vegetables, fruits and nuts. In Afghanistan, industry is also based on agriculture, and pastoral raw materials. The major industrial crops are: cotton, tobacco, madder, castor beans, and sugar beets. Sheep farming is also extremely valuable. The major sheep product exports are wool, and highly prized Karakul skins. Afghanistan is a land that is rich in natural resources. There are numerous mineral and precious stone deposits, as well as natural gas and yet untapped petroleum stores. Some of these resources have been exploited, while others have remained relatively unexploited.

Other Facts

• The unit of money in Afghanistan is the Afghani (AFA), divided into 100 puls.
• The fiscal year is from 21 March—20 March.
• Export Partners: US, France, India, Pakistan
• Import Partners: Pakistan, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Turkmenistan, Kenya, US, Russia
• Exports: $603 million (2008 est.) ^[1]
• Imports: $8.27 billion (2008 est.) ^[1]
• Imports – commodities: capital goods, food, textiles, petroleum products
• Exports – commodities: opium, fruits and nuts, hand-woven carpets, wool, cotton, hides and pelts, precious and semi-precious gems
• External debt: $8 billion in bilateral debt, mostly to Russia; Afghanistan has $500 million in debt to Multilateral Development Banks (2004) ^[1]
• GDP (purchasing power parity): $23.35 billion (2009 est.) ^[1]
• GDP (official exchange rate): $13.32 billion (2009 est.) ^[1]
• GDP – real growth rate: 3.4% (2009 est.) ^[1]
• GDP – per capita (PPP): $800 (2009 est.) ^[1]
• GDP – composition by sector: agriculture – 31%, industry – 26%, services – 43% note: data exclude opium production (2008 est.) ^[1]
• Labor force: 15 million (2004 est.) ^[1]
• Labor force – by occupation: agriculture (80%), industry (10%), services (10%) – 2004 est. ^[1]
• Unemployment rate: 40% (2005 est.) ^[1]
• Population below poverty line: 53% (2003) ^[1]
• Budget: revenues: $1.1 billion; expenditures: $3.3 billion. ^[1]
• Inflation rate (consumer prices): 26.8% (2008 est.) 13% (2007 est.)  ^[1]
• Commercial bank prime lending rate:14.92% (31 December 2008) ^[1]
• Agriculture – products: opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton, sheepskins, lambskins ^[1]
• Industries: small-scale production of textiles, soap, furniture, shoes, fertilizer, cement; hand-woven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper ^[1]
• Electricity: exports 0 kWh (2008 est.), imports 230 million kWh (2007 est.)  ^[1]
• Electricity – consumption: 1.01 billion kWh (2007 est.)  ^[1]
• ^{link  :  https://www.afghan-web.com/economy/}

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We will soon feel the impact of bumper opium production in Afghanistan here in the UK

Ian Hamilton

Mon, August 23, 2021, 5:29

Afghan farmers harvest opium sap from a poppy field in the Gereshk district of Helmand province (AFP via Getty Images)

 

While the conflict in Afghanistan dominates the news, it’s easy to lose sight of the way the country dominates the world market in opium. Oil producers would be envious of the extent that this one country has a near monopoly on supplying the world with heroin. An estimated 80 per cent of the world’s opium is grown in Afghanistan.

Latest reports suggest that this year’s harvest will be a bumper one as farmers planted extra crops anticipating a poor year that didn’t ultimately materialise. This resulted in a 37 per cent increase in opium yield. For obvious reasons, estimating the value of this trade for Afghanistan is tricky but conservative estimates suggest opium brings in anywhere between $400m and $1.5bn annually. Contrast that with the $500m in humanitarian aid the country receives.

The Taliban has been quick to publicly state their intention to wipe out the cultivation and trade in opium. Given their ideology, however, they are unlikely to follow through on this ambition as they are reliant on the revenue opium brings, while those involved in the trade are deeply embedded in the communities that rely on the crop to survive. Afghanistan doesn’t have alternative sources of income that can match the wealth opium yields.

 

The Taliban have experience in the opium trade. Twenty years ago, when the original invasion took place, there was a near identical situation with over-planting of crops and a consequent fall in opium prices. The Taliban response was a near perfect manipulation of the market: they withheld supplies and prices rose. Why would they not make use of that experience this time round? They have no competition as yet, although that could change with the rise in synthetic opiates, something Public Health England has recently warned about due to a spike in fatal overdoses, mainly in the South of England.

What is certain is that we will soon feel the impact of bumper opium production in Afghanistan here in the UK. There are few people that use heroin recreationally; most are chronically dependent, using the drug multiple times a day, some intravenously. Despite falling numbers of heroin users, this is still a lucrative market given the loyalty of the customer base.

Even as numbers of heroin users decrease, the harm associated with the drug surges year on year. This year saw yet another record rise in fatal overdoses, most of which were due to heroin. Unlike regulated drugs there is no quality control or labelling giving details of potency. Any change in strength usually comes to light when it’s too late after ingestion and when an overdose occurs, fatal or otherwise.

The real danger with oversupply of opium and a rise in availability of synthetic opiate alternatives like fentanyl is that not only will prices fall but potency will increase. We’ve already witnessed this with cocaine, which is now more affordable and purer than it’s ever been. Rising potency is always associated with increased harm, some of which will be fatal.

While it may seem that we are immune from the current conflict in Afghanistan, the trade in opium makes clear that we are not. Sadly, our treatment services are in the worst shape they have ever been in, so are ill equipped to deal with any surge in availability and purity in heroin reaching the UK. These services have been starved of resources and can barely deal with those they already care for, never mind any increase in demand for specialist help.

It’s not just world trade that is increasingly interconnected but the social and economic circumstances that drive those on the sharp end of inequality into using heroin as they try to inoculate their first-hand experience of state failure to provide them with opportunity and support. In that sense opium does provide mass tranquilisation as inequality continues to thrive under a government which, like the Taliban, says one thing publicly but fails to back it up with meaningful action in policy or deed. It’s not Taliban approved heroin that kills but government political hypocrisy and inaction.

 

link  :  https://news.yahoo.com/soon-feel-impact-bumper-opium-102906463.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

 

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The Taliban militants of Afghanistan have grown richer and more powerful since their fundamentalist Islamic regime was toppled by U.S. forces in 2001.

In the fiscal year that ended in March 2020, the Taliban reportedly brought in US$1.6 billion, according to Mullah Yaqoob, son of the late Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, who revealed the Taliban’s income sources in a confidential report commissioned by NATO and later obtained by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

In comparison, the Afghan government brought in $5.55 billion during the same period.

 

Who funds the Taliban?

I study the Taliban’s finances as an economic policy analyst at the Center for Afghanistan Studies. Here’s where their money comes from.

1. Drugs – $416 million

Afghanistan accounted for approximately 84% of global opium production over the five years ending in 2020, according to the United Nation’s World Drug Report 2020.

Much of those illicit drug profits go to the Taliban, which manage opium in areas under their control. The group imposes a 10% tax on every link in the drug production chain, according to a 2008 report from the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, an independent research organization in Kabul. That includes the Afghan farmers who cultivate poppy, the main ingredient in opium, the labs that convert it into a drug and the traders who move the final product out of country.

Afghan farmers harvest opium sap from a poppy field in the Darra-i-Nur District of Nangarhar province May 10.

 

 

2. Mining – $400 million to $464 million

Mining iron ore, marble, copper, gold, zinc and other metals and rare-earth minerals in mountainous Afghanistan is an increasingly lucrative business for the Taliban. Both small-scale mineral-extraction operations and big Afghan mining companies pay Taliban militants to allow them to keep their businesses running. Those who don’t pay have faced death threats.

According to the Taliban’s Stones and Mines Commission, or Da Dabaro Comisyoon, the group earns $400 million a year from mining. NATO estimates that figure higher, at $464 million – up from just $35 million in 2016.

3. Extortion and taxes – $160 million

Like a government, the Taliban tax people and industries in the growing swath of Afghanistan under their control. They even issue official receipts of tax payment.

“Taxed” industries include mining operations, media, telecommunications and development projects funded by international aid. Drivers are also charged for using highways in Taliban-controlled regions, and shopkeepers pay the Taliban for the right to do business.

The group also imposes a traditional Islamic form of taxation called “ushr” – which is a 10% tax on a farmer’s harvest – and “zakat,” a 2.5% wealth tax.

According to Mullah Yaqoob, tax revenues – which may also be considered extortion – bring in around $160 million annually.

Since some of those taxed are poppy growers, there could be some financial overlap between tax revenue and drug revenue.

4. Charitable donations – $240 million

The Taliban receive covert financial contributions from private donors and international institutions across the globe.

Many Taliban donations are from charities and private trusts located in Persian Gulf countries, a region historically sympathetic to the group’s religious insurgency. Those donations add up to about $150 million to $200 million each year, according to the Afghanistan Center for Research and Policy Studies. These charities are on the U.S. Treasury Department’s list of groups that finance terrorism.

Private citizens from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran and some Persian Gulf nations also help finance the Taliban, contributing another $60 million annually to the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani Network, according to American counterterrorism agencies.

The Taliban’s insurgency has destabilized Afghanistan for nearly 20 years

 

 

5. Exports – $240 million

In part to launder illicit money, the Taliban import and export various everyday consumer goods, according to the United Nations Security Council. Known business affiliates include the multinational Noorzai Brothers Limited, which imports auto parts and sells reassembled vehicles and spare automobile parts.

The Taliban’s net income from exports is thought to be around $240 million a year. This figure includes the export of poppy and looted minerals, so there may be financial overlap with drug revenue and mining revenue.

6. Real estate – $80 million

The Taliban own real estate in Afghanistan, Pakistan and potentially other countries, according to Mullah Yaqoob and the Pakistani TV Channel SAMAA. Yaqoob told NATO annual real estate revenue is around $80 million.

7. Specific countries

According to BBC reporting, a classified CIA report estimated in 2008 that the Taliban had received $106 million from foreign sources, in particular from the Gulf states.

Today, the governments of Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are all believed to bankroll the Taliban, according to numerous U.S. and international sources. Experts say these funds could amount to as much as $500 million a year, but it is difficult to put an exact figure on this income stream.

Who funds the Afghan government?

For nearly 20 years, the Taliban’s great wealth has financed mayhem, destruction and death in Afghanistan. To battle its insurgency, the Afghan government also spends heavily on war, often at the expense of basic public services and economic development.

 

A peace agreement in Afghanistan would allow the government to redirect its scarce resources. The government might also see substantial new revenue flow in from legal sectors now dominated by the Taliban, such as mining.

Stability is additionally expected to attract foreign investment in the country, helping the government end its dependence on donors like the United States and the European Union.

There are many reasons to root for peace in war-scarred Afghanistan. Its financial health is one of them.

 

link  :  https://theconversation.com/the-taliban-are-megarich-heres-where-they-get-the-money-they-use-to-wage-war-in-afghanistan-147411

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Copper and lithium may be the keys to Afghanistan’s economic future

 

On October 27, the last international troops closed their military camp in Southern Helmand Province and left Afghanistan, officially ending their combat role after 13 years of fighting. By the end of 2014, it’s expected that only 9,800 American troops will be left in the country.

Although Afghanistan continues to face security challenges, the completion of the planned transition imparts hope that the country has achieved enough political and military stability to move forward on its own. The most pressing question now is how Afghanistan will finance its still-fledgling armed forces, its state institutions and the revival of its beleaguered economy while preventing the return of the Taliban and Al-Qaida.

Billions of dollars in pledged international assistance have been pledged, but this is only a fleeting solution. Afghanistan needs a sustainable source of income to retake control of its destiny and reclaim its ancient role as one of Asia’s most important trade routes.

The answer lies in the mineral deposits spread across the country that are overflowing with copper, iron, lithium and other metals and minerals. How much lies in Afghanistan’s hills and mountains is still unknown, but they may be worth trillions of dollars.

 

Three decades of war

Since the fall of the monarchy in 1973, Afghanistan has never had a chance to take advantage of the richness of its land. The subsequent three decades have been marked by protracted turbulence, including the Soviet invasion of 1979, uprisings, civil wars and finally the rise of the Taliban and invasion by US-led forces. The continual struggles eliminated any opportunity to design and implement an economic strategy to discover let alone excavate and use its vast natural resources.

The limited work that has been done in this area was first conducted by Soviet geologists in the 1970s and 1980s. They identified abundant natural deposits that included iron, high grade chrome ore, uranium, lead, zinc, bauxite, lithium, emeralds, gold, silver and the “largest amount of copper.”

The World Bank says Afghanistan’s copper deposits in the Eastern Logar and the Central Bamiyan provinces are the largest in Asia and second-largest in the world, at over 1.2 billion tons. Additionally, the Afghan government confirms there are “extensive deposits of coal, marble, precious metal, game stones, gas and hydrocarbons.”

Perhaps the most up-to-date and intriguing claim about the country’s hidden wealth emerged in 2010 when The New York Times reported on a leaked internal memo prepared by US geologists and Pentagon officials. It said Afghanistan’s mineral deposits could fundamentally alter the country’s struggling economy.

The report helps confirm that Afghanistan could soon become a very wealthy country. Its lithium deposits alone are estimated to be worth as much as US$3 trillion, according to the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum.

Foreign investors wanted

The Afghan government in 2008 passed a law intended to open up its economy and spur foreign investment in the country’s key sectors. Because of the ongoing security and political challenges, the level of foreign investment remains limited.

Thus far China remains the single largest foreign investor. The Metallurgical Corporation of China and Jiangxi Copper Corporation are the two biggest companies contracted to invest US$4.4 billion in Aynak copper deposits. Chinese National Petroleum Corporation won the contract for Afghanistan’s gas in the northern provinces of Sari-pul and Jowzjan with an annual US$400 million investment. And last week, Afghanistan’s new President, Ashraf Ghani, paid his first official visit to China and signed a number of trade agreements, signifying the role of China in Afghanistan’s economy.

A wise and sustainable approach to Afghanistan’s natural resources, however, requires a strategy that involves many countries in the region and around the world, not just China. In particular, the countries in the coalition that ousted the Taliban and have been involved in Afghanistan for a decade now – whether fighting or building infrastructure – should be a part of that strategy.

The time is ripe for such a strategy, and it should be included in the upcoming London Conference in December. Afghanistan’s unity government will present its top economic policies and donors will unveil their post-withdrawal plans. The summit may be the last gathering of its kind, concluding one of the century’s longest wars – though NATO and the US plan to maintain an advisory role through 2025.

The ability to discover, extract and effectively manage Afghanistan’s natural resources will help guarantee the ultimate success of the transition to complete independence – along with the security agreement with the US and President Ghani’s fight against corruption. In the end, it could finally connect Afghanistan to its region and the world, turning the country once again into the region’s most valued trade route.

 

link  :  https://theconversation.com/copper-and-lithium-may-be-the-keys-to-afghanistans-economic-future-33663

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Opium: Afghanistan’s drug trade that helped fuel the Taliban

Taliban are involved in all facets, from poppy planting, opium extraction, trafficking to charging smugglers export fees.

More than 80 percent of global opium and heroin come from Afghanistan

 

16 Aug 2021

 

The United States spent more than $8bn over 15 years on efforts to deprive the Taliban of their profits from Afghanistan’s opium and heroin trade, from poppy eradication to air attacks and raids on suspected labs.

That strategy failed.

As the US wraps up its longest war, Afghanistan remains the world’s biggest illicit opiate supplier and looks certain to remain so as the Taliban is on the brink of taking power in Kabul, said current and former US and UN officials and experts.

Widespread destruction during the war, millions uprooted from their homes, foreign aid cuts, and losses of local spending by departed US-led foreign troops are fuelling an economic and humanitarian crisis that is likely to leave many destitute Afghans dependent on the narcotics trade for survival.

That dependence threatens to bring more instability as the Taliban, other armed groups, ethnic militia leaders, and corrupt public officials vie for drug profits and power.

Some UN and US officials worry Afghanistan’s slide into chaos is creating conditions for even higher illicit opiate production, a potential boon to the Taliban.

“The Taliban have counted on the Afghan opium trade as one of their main sources of income,” Cesar Gudes, the head of the Kabul office of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), told Reuters. “More production brings drugs with a cheaper and more attractive price, and therefore a wider accessibility.”

With the Taliban entering Kabul on Sunday, “these are the best moments in which these illicit groups tend to position themselves” to expand their business, Gudes said.

The Taliban banned poppy growing in 2000 as they sought international legitimacy, but faced a popular backlash and later mostly changed their stance, according to experts.

Despite the threats posed by Afghanistan’s illicit drug business, experts noted, the US and other nations rarely mention in public the need to address the trade – estimated by the UNODC at more than 80 percent of global opium and heroin supplies.

“We’ve stood by on the sidelines and, unfortunately, allowed the Taliban to become probably the largest funded non-designated terrorist organisation on the globe,” said a US official with knowledge of Afghanistan’s drug trade.

 

link  :  https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/16/opium-afghanistans-illicit-drug-trade-that-helped-fuel-taliban

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Analysis

Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world - now things could get even worse

Afghanistan is already one of the world's poorest countries and the Taliban's quick march to power likely won't help matters, with a restoration of the hardline group's previous ban on allowing women to work the biggest single obstacle to economic growth in future.

Ian King

Business presenter @iankingsky

Only six countries in the world have a lower GDP per head than Afghanistan

 

The Taliban, having taken over Afghanistan, will inherit an economy that is among the world's most ramshackle.

That may surprise many given the billions of dollars spent by the United States and its allies in the country during the last two decades.

Growth slowed dramatically when most foreign combat troops left the country in 2014

 

Most of that money, though, was invested in trying to train the Afghan police and military and establish a coherent rule of law.

Despite the construction of a number of high-rise buildings, chiefly in Kabul, rather less was spent on initiatives, such as infrastructure improvements, that would have boosted growth longer term.

That is not to say there was not some improvement after the US and its allies kicked out the Taliban.

According to World Bank data, Afghan GDP - the total value of goods and services produced in an economy - grew from $4.055bn in 2002 to $20.561bn in 2013.

But growth slowed dramatically when, in 2014, most foreign combat troops - a key source of income - left the country with the departure of the UN-backed International Security Assistance Force.

Afghanistan's GDP growth fell from around 14% in 2012 to as little as 1.5% by 2015.

At least a fifth of Afghan GDP is reckoned to come from the opium trade

 

There was a subsequent recovery from 2016 onwards but, as of 2020, the economy was still worth just $19.807bn.

It slipped back into recession last year due to the COVID-19 outbreak and an intensification of political unrest that disrupted exports.

The country remains among the poorest in the world.

The latest World Bank data suggests that only six countries worldwide - among them Burundi, Somalia, and Sierra Leone - have a lower GDP per head (roughly speaking the value of a country's economy divided by its population) than Afghanistan.

At least a fifth of Afghan GDP is reckoned to come from the opium trade, much of which has been controlled by the Taliban, helping arm the group.

In all, agriculture makes up around half of economic activity in Afghanistan, while it also accounts for at least half of all employment in a country where two in five people are jobless.

Apart from opium, wheat is the key agricultural export, although there has also been diversification in recent years into more valuable crops such as walnuts, almonds, pistachios, saffron, pomegranates and raisins, despite increasing amounts of land being given over to opium cultivation.

Moreover, a lack of investment in cold stores and packaging facilities has held back Afghanistan's ability to make more from fruit and vegetable exports, with at least a quarter of agricultural products reckoned to deteriorate after being harvested to such an extent that they cannot be sold.

Agriculture makes up about half of economic activity

 

After agriculture, the key source of income for Afghanistan is overseas aid, which has traditionally covered about three-quarters of Afghan government spending.

This, though, has been falling in recent years and can be expected to almost completely dry up now that the Taliban have seized control.

That is not to say that, even under Taliban control, there will not be economic opportunities.

Afghanistan is rich in mineral resources - the value of which was put at $1trn a decade ago - including deposits of lithium and cobalt, both key components in electric vehicle batteries, gold, copper and iron ore.

Those riches were charted by Soviet geologists following the invasion 40 years ago and, more recently, by the Pentagon, which, in an internal document in 2010, suggested Afghanistan had potential to become "the Saudi Arabia of lithium".

Unfortunately, Afghanistan's ability to exploit those resources will be hampered by a lack of transport infrastructure, a developed electricity grid and technical expertise, with few mining engineers prepared to set foot in the country even before the Taliban came to power.

Even China Metallurgical Group, which has owned the rights to exploit one of Afghanistan's biggest copper deposits since 2007, has not done so due to concerns over security.

China, which is already the biggest foreign investor in Afghanistan, would be a logical partner for the Taliban if the country's considerable mineral reserves are ever to be exploited but it is likely to drive a hard bargain and will require strong guarantees on security.

Women face the prospect of being banned from education or employment again.

 

Ashraf Ghani, the former president, refused a request from China to cut royalty rates some years ago.

Nor have these mineral riches helped Afghanistan much to date.

Much of what mining exists in the country is illegal, not only depriving the government of royalties, but also providing income to insurgents.

Greater than Afghanistan's mineral wealth is its human capital.

It is a young country, with getting on for two-thirds of the population under the age of 25, as well as an increasingly educated one.

From a situation where one in five Afghans were illiterate after the Taliban were kicked out, there has been a massive expansion in education, with 10 times as many universities as there were in 2001.

Among the key beneficiaries have been women and girls, who were previously deprived of education under the Taliban, but who now once again face the prospect of being banned from either education or employment.

A continuation of the Taliban's previous ban on allowing women to work would be the biggest single obstacle to economic growth in future.

The country has seen a big expansion in education

 

Others are likely to include the country's relatively poor health.

Life expectancy is lower than elsewhere in South Asia.

The Taliban takeover does not only have consequences for Afghanistan's own pitiful economy.

There are also huge economic implications for the country's neighbours, in particular Pakistan, where there are already estimated to be nearly 1.5 million Afghan refugees.

Millions more can be expected to head off as they seek to escape the Taliban.

Afghanistan's neighbours to the north, including Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, will also have similar concerns.

Added to this will be the risk that some projects planned by the Ghani government in partnership with Afghanistan's neighbours may now not come to fruition.

Chief among these was a railway, running via Kabul, connecting Mazer-i-Sharif, close to the Uzbek border, with Peshawar in Pakistan.

This was expected to be of huge benefit not only to landlocked Afghanistan, but also its neighbours in terms of its ability to transform trade and reduce the cost of doing it.

Afghanistan's economy was already in a parlous state.

But that is not to say it could not become even weaker under the Taliban.

 

link  :  https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan-is-one-of-the-poorest-countries-in-the-world-now-things-could-get-even-worse-12383072

 

[yota691]

An official in the Afghan Central Bank calls on Washington to release funds to the "Taliban" movement

international economy

London

The New Arab

01 September 2021

 

 

Unlimited queues in front of commercial banks in Kabul due to tight cash (Getty)

 

Amidst the acute liquidity crisis and the inability of banks to meet the financial needs of citizens and traders, Shah Mehrabi, a senior member of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Afghanistan and a university professor in the United States urged the US Treasury and the International Monetary Fund to take steps to unfreeze part of the Afghan assets frozen in front of The government that the Taliban is forming to take advantage of the country's reserves and use them to avoid an economic disaster . This is according to Reuters news agency reported on Wednesday.

Since the Taliban took control of the government, the citizens of Kabul and the provinces suffer from a lack of sufficient cash to meet the daily needs of their families. The Taliban has specified a specific amount of money withdrawn from the banks for the citizen every week, but the citizens consider it insufficient, and the merchants want to unfreeze their deposits so that they can pay the purchase bills for their stores. According to experts in Kabul, the procedures for limiting the amount of withdrawals available to citizens from banks occurred due to the Taliban's fear of smuggling the few dollars in the banking system.

The movement had taken control of Afghanistan with astonishing speed, but it appears that it is unable to take advantage of the central bank's reserves of $9 billion, which are frozen in the Federal Reserve "Central Bank". In addition, the International Monetary Fund stopped the disbursement of sums of $440 million that were on their way to Afghanistan as part of the Special Drawing Rights assistance.

The administration of President Joe Biden said that any central bank assets owned by the Afghan government in the United States would not be made available to the Taliban, and the IMF said Afghanistan would not be able to draw on its resources.

 

Mehrabi, an economics professor at Montgomery College in Maryland near Washington and a member of the Bank's board since 2002, told Reuters in a phone interview on Wednesday that Afghanistan was on the verge of an "economic and humanitarian crisis" if international reserves remained frozen. Mehrabi stressed that he does not speak for the Taliban, but rather as a current member of the Afghan Central Bank board, adding that he plans to meet with several members of Congress this week and hopes to be able to address Treasury officials soon.

Mehrabi suggested that the United States allow the new government in Kabul to receive a limited amount each month, perhaps $100 million or $125 million initially, with an independent auditor monitoring its spending.

[Rochester]

Breaking News: The Taliban are leapfrogging financial technology, avoiding gold-backed currency, avoiding fiat currency. Instead Afghanistan is going straight to crypto-currency, straight to their version of bit-coin, which is their version, called the Afghan ****-coin....😁💩

[Monkndad]

On 8/24/2021 at 3:42 AM, 3 bucks new rv rate said:

Copper and lithium may be the keys to Afghanistan’s economic future

 

On October 27, the last international troops closed their military camp in Southern Helmand Province and left Afghanistan, officially ending their combat role after 13 years of fighting. By the end of 2014, it’s expected that only 9,800 American troops will be left in the country.

Although Afghanistan continues to face security challenges, the completion of the planned transition imparts hope that the country has achieved enough political and military stability to move forward on its own. The most pressing question now is how Afghanistan will finance its still-fledgling armed forces, its state institutions and the revival of its beleaguered economy while preventing the return of the Taliban and Al-Qaida.

Billions of dollars in pledged international assistance have been pledged, but this is only a fleeting solution. Afghanistan needs a sustainable source of income to retake control of its destiny and reclaim its ancient role as one of Asia’s most important trade routes.

The answer lies in the mineral deposits spread across the country that are overflowing with copper, iron, lithium and other metals and minerals. How much lies in Afghanistan’s hills and mountains is still unknown, but they may be worth trillions of dollars.

 

Three decades of war

Since the fall of the monarchy in 1973, Afghanistan has never had a chance to take advantage of the richness of its land. The subsequent three decades have been marked by protracted turbulence, including the Soviet invasion of 1979, uprisings, civil wars and finally the rise of the Taliban and invasion by US-led forces. The continual struggles eliminated any opportunity to design and implement an economic strategy to discover let alone excavate and use its vast natural resources.

The limited work that has been done in this area was first conducted by Soviet geologists in the 1970s and 1980s. They identified abundant natural deposits that included iron, high grade chrome ore, uranium, lead, zinc, bauxite, lithium, emeralds, gold, silver and the “largest amount of copper.”

The World Bank says Afghanistan’s copper deposits in the Eastern Logar and the Central Bamiyan provinces are the largest in Asia and second-largest in the world, at over 1.2 billion tons. Additionally, the Afghan government confirms there are “extensive deposits of coal, marble, precious metal, game stones, gas and hydrocarbons.”

Perhaps the most up-to-date and intriguing claim about the country’s hidden wealth emerged in 2010 when The New York Times reported on a leaked internal memo prepared by US geologists and Pentagon officials. It said Afghanistan’s mineral deposits could fundamentally alter the country’s struggling economy.

The report helps confirm that Afghanistan could soon become a very wealthy country. Its lithium deposits alone are estimated to be worth as much as US$3 trillion, according to the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum.

Foreign investors wanted

The Afghan government in 2008 passed a law intended to open up its economy and spur foreign investment in the country’s key sectors. Because of the ongoing security and political challenges, the level of foreign investment remains limited.

Thus far China remains the single largest foreign investor. The Metallurgical Corporation of China and Jiangxi Copper Corporation are the two biggest companies contracted to invest US$4.4 billion in Aynak copper deposits. Chinese National Petroleum Corporation won the contract for Afghanistan’s gas in the northern provinces of Sari-pul and Jowzjan with an annual US$400 million investment. And last week, Afghanistan’s new President, Ashraf Ghani, paid his first official visit to China and signed a number of trade agreements, signifying the role of China in Afghanistan’s economy.

A wise and sustainable approach to Afghanistan’s natural resources, however, requires a strategy that involves many countries in the region and around the world, not just China. In particular, the countries in the coalition that ousted the Taliban and have been involved in Afghanistan for a decade now – whether fighting or building infrastructure – should be a part of that strategy.

The time is ripe for such a strategy, and it should be included in the upcoming London Conference in December. Afghanistan’s unity government will present its top economic policies and donors will unveil their post-withdrawal plans. The summit may be the last gathering of its kind, concluding one of the century’s longest wars – though NATO and the US plan to maintain an advisory role through 2025.

The ability to discover, extract and effectively manage Afghanistan’s natural resources will help guarantee the ultimate success of the transition to complete independence – along with the security agreement with the US and President Ghani’s fight against corruption. In the end, it could finally connect Afghanistan to its region and the world, turning the country once again into the region’s most valued trade route.

 

link  :  https://theconversation.com/copper-and-lithium-may-be-the-keys-to-afghanistans-economic-future-33663

Might be hard to get investors when there is so much violence in the region.

[Longtimelurker]

Just now, Monkndad said:

Might be hard to get investors when there is so much violence in the region.

Peace across the world is coming as the U.S leaves other countries👍 

 

I will be watching the middle-east for investment opportunities!

[Monkndad]

1 minute ago, Longtimelurker said:

Peace across the world is coming as the U.S leaves other countries👍 

 

I will be watching the middle-east for investment opportunities!

LTL I agree that it is time to let other countries take care of their own problems. I do believe that there will be investment opportunities, but it may be a few years down the road.

Thanks for all your input. Always enjoy your post.

[rvmydinar]

1 hour ago, Monkndad said:

Might be hard to get investors when there is so much violence in the region.

China might be the first investor who will come and invest in Afghanistan after the US left the Afghanistan.

[Monkndad]

3 minutes ago, rvmydinar said:

China might be the first investor who will come and invest in Afghanistan after the US left the Afghanistan.

China has been investing and buying up as much real estate as they can for the last 25 years. hope we dont have to learn to speak Chinese. Seems like a hard language to learn.

[rvmydinar]

1 hour ago, Longtimelurker said:

I will be watching the middle-east for investment opportunities!

Hopefully, iqd will rv first before Afghanistan's currency. It might be china will be the first investor to come to build afghanistan and might have the authority to determine the afghanistan's currency?

[rvmydinar]

8 minutes ago, Monkndad said:

China has been investing and buying up as much real estate as they can for the last 25 years. hope we dont have to learn to speak Chinese. Seems like a hard language to learn.

We hope we don't have to.

[Longtimelurker]

1 hour ago, rvmydinar said:

Hopefully, iqd will rv first before Afghanistan's currency. It might be china will be the first investor to come to build afghanistan and might have the authority to determine the afghanistan's currency?

China won't be a threat to any country after the reset and agreements are completed. Xi is a great person working with Trump, the people around Xi are not good people and they out number/power Xi until everything finalizes👍

[rvmydinar]

31 minutes ago, Longtimelurker said:

the people around Xi are not good people and they out number/power Xi until everything finalizes👍

Exactly.

[ronscarpa]

23 hours ago, yota691 said:

An official in the Afghan Central Bank calls on Washington to release funds to the "Taliban" movement

 

Funding the crazies...! 

[3 bucks new rv rate]

Afghanistan: Taliban to rely on Chinese funds, spokesperson says

With the help of China, the Taliban will fight for an economic comeback in Afghanistan, Zabihullah Mujahid tells Italian newspaper.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, centre, said the New Silk Road - a Chinese infrastructure initiative - was held in high regard by the Taliban

 

 

2 Sep 2021

|

Updated: 

14 hours ago

 

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has told an Italian newspaper that the group will rely primarily on financing from China following the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and its takeover of the country.

In his interview published by La Repubblica on Thursday, Mujahid said the Taliban will fight for an economic comeback with the help of China.

The Taliban seized control of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, on August 15 as the country’s Western-backed government melted away, bringing an end to 20 years of war amid fears of an economic collapse and widespread hunger.

Following the chaotic departure of foreign troops from Kabul airport in recent weeks, Western states have severely restricted their aid payments to Afghanistan.

“China is our most important partner and represents a fundamental and extraordinary opportunity for us, because it is ready to invest and rebuild our country,” the Taliban spokesperson was quoted as saying in the interview.

He said the New Silk Road – an infrastructure initiative with which China wants to increase its global influence by opening up trade routes – was held in high regard by the Taliban.

There are “rich copper mines in the country, which, thanks to the Chinese, can be put back into operation and modernised. In addition, China is our pass to markets all over the world.”

Mujahid also confirmed that women would be allowed to continue studying at universities in future. He said women would be able to work as nurses, in the police or as assistants in ministries, but ruled out that there would be female ministers.

Andrew Small, senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States Asia programme, said China’s engagement in Afghanistan would be dependent on political stability.

“China doesn’t do large scale aid; it will provide aid in modest terms, it will provide humanitarian assistance and it’s not going to bail out a new government,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It might do some smaller scale investments but those longer term investments will depend on there being enough stability in the country and enough security in the country for these to turn into something that’s economically viable,” he added.

“So there’s still some limitations to what Cina’s going to be willing to do economically, even if it continues to be happy and the Taliban are keen to be able to send these signals that China’s willing to swing in on scale.”

 

Afghanistan desperately needs money, and the Taliban is unlikely to get swift access to the roughly $10bn in assets here mostly held abroad by the Afghan central bank.

Earlier this week, United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned of a looming “humanitarian catastrophe” in Afghanistan and urged countries to provide emergency funding as severe drought and war have forced thousands of families to flee their homes.

Guterres expressed his “grave concern at the deepening humanitarian and economic crisis in the country”, adding that basic services threatened to collapse “completely”.

“Now more than ever, Afghan children, women and men need the support system" rel="">support and solidarity of the international community,” he said in a statement on Tuesday as he pleaded for financial support system" rel="">support from nations.

“I urge all member states to dig deep for the people of Afghanistan in their darkest hour of need. I urge them to provide timely, flexible and comprehensive funding,” the UN secretary-general said.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the current $1.3bn UN humanitarian appeal for Afghanistan is only 39 percent funded.

 

link  :  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/2/afghanistan-taliban-to-rely-on-chinese-money-spokesperson-says

 

[3 bucks new rv rate]

How Taliban return in Afghanistan triggered Islamophobia in India

India’s Muslim minority becomes the Hindu right wing’s target in a new hate campaign after the Taliban captures power.

Muslim politicians, writers, journalists and everyday citizens became targets of a fresh hate campaign after Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan

 

 

By Furquan Ameen

1 Sep 2021

 

New Delhi, India – The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has given yet another excuse to India’s Hindu supremacists to unleash a new wave of Islamophobia against its Muslim minority.

Muslim politicians, writers, journalists, social media influencers and everyday citizens have become the targets of a hate campaign launched by the country’s right wing, including members of the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

As soon as the Taliban toppled the Western-backed government last month, the hashtag #GoToAfghanistan began trending on Indian social media, a repeat of the #GoToPakistan campaign launched by right-wing groups who want to turn India into an ethnic Hindu state.

“The word Taliban or Talibani is deliberately being fed into the vocabulary of the masses by both sides of the spectrum – people who might be anti- or pro-BJP,” poet and activist Hussain Haidry told Al Jazeera.

“It is being done just the way Pakistani or ‘jihadi’ or ‘aatankwadi’ (terrorist) terms were fed as slurs against Muslims.”

Shortly after Taliban took over Kabul, BJP politician Ram Madhav called the 1921 Moplah rebellion one of the first manifestations of a “Talibani mentality” in India, and that the state government of Kerala was trying to “whitewash” it.

Madhav was speaking at an event to mark 100 years since the peasant uprising against British colonial rule and the feudal system in the southern state.

In another incident, media reports said Muslims in the central state of Madhya Pradesh raised pro-Pakistan slogans during a Muharram procession. The BJP state chief minister commented on the reports, saying he would “not tolerate the Talibani mentality”. Two days after his comments, leading fact-checking website Alt News debunked the initial media reports.

In the northeastern state of Assam, 15 Muslims, including Islamic scholars, a politician and a local journalist, were arrested for allegedly “supporting” the Taliban in social media posts and charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act or UAPA, a draconian anti-terror law under which dozens of Muslims and other government critics are behind bars.

‘What do we have to do with Taliban?’

Haidry said Muslims who counter hate or are vocal about atrocities against the community are being accused of being Taliban sympathisers, even if they condemn the group.

In the city of Lucknow, famous poet Munawwar Rana faced right-wing ire when he drew an analogy between the Taliban and Valmiki, who wrote the Hindu epic, Ramayana.

During a TV debate two weeks ago, Rana said characters change over time and cited as an example Valmiki who “became a god after writing Ramayana; before that he was a bandit”.

Rana says he said nothing wrong and that he is being targeted for his Muslim identity by people who want to polarise society on religious lines before elections early next year in his state of Uttar Pradesh.

“Being an Indian or a Muslim, when have we ever supported any terrorist? What do we have to do with the Taliban? But if there is a blast anywhere in the world and a Muslim is involved, we will be blamed for it,” Rana told Al Jazeera.

Another Muslim, Shafiqur Rahman Barq, an Uttar Pradesh politician, is facing sedition charges for allegedly comparing India’s freedom struggle against the British with that of Afghanistan’s struggle against the US occupation.

A video clip posted by ANI news agency on August 17 showed Barq as saying that Indians had fought for freedom when the country was under the British occupation.

“Now they [Afghanistan] were under American occupation, earlier it was Russia, they [Taliban] also wanted freedom and to free their country,” he said.

However, a sedition case was filed against him and two others – who were said to have made “similar statements” – on the same night.

Barq told Al Jazeera his statement was misconstrued and that he had called the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan the country’s internal matter.

“Governments keep changing in other countries. Why should we take any interest in what is happening anywhere? Our country [government] will create a policy, on whether to acknowledge their [Taliban’s] rule or not and we will go with it,” said Barq.

While the BJP leaders and spokespersons in India called the Taliban “terrorists”, the country’s ambassador to Qatar met with the head of the Taliban’s political office in Doha on Tuesday.

Like Rana, Barq also said because Uttar Pradesh is a key state in national politics, the BJP is misrepresenting his statement to polarise voters.

A video released by Islamic scholar and member of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board, Sajjad Nomani, congratulating the Taliban on taking Kabul further stoked the controversy.

Meanwhile, a group of activists, journalists and Muslim intellectuals condemned both the Taliban’s acts and the “euphoria” in “a section of Indian Muslims” over the Taliban’s capture of power.

While talking to Al Jazeera about Barq, Nomani and Rana, political anthropologist Irfan Ahmad said no democrat should find anything objectionable in their statements because they had been commenting on the Taliban’s fight against foreign powers, critiquing the 20 years of occupation and bombardment of an impoverished country in the name of a “war on terror”.

“They are not so much praising Taliban as their deeds: their exemplary entry into Kabul amidst non-violence, their promise and continuing the practice of girls’ education, and their maintenance of sectarian harmony,” said Ahmad, a senior research fellow at Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity in Gottingen, Germany.

Statements construed to be in support system" rel="">support of the Taliban gave more fodder to BJP leaders and spokespersons, especially with the elections around the corner in Uttar Pradesh.

Uttar Pradesh’s controversial saffron-robed chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, was quick to jump on the bandwagon and claim such statements were an “attempt to Talibanise” India.

“The kind of atrocities against women happening there… but some people are shamelessly supporting Taliban,” he said in the state assembly.

Adityanath’s government announced the setting up of a new anti-terror centre in Deoband, birthplace of the Deoband school of thought on which the Taliban loosely bases its ideology.

The influential Islamic school has inspired tens of thousands of institutions across the world.

Commenting on the anti-terror centre, state spokesman Shalabh Mani Tripathi said on Twitter: “Amidst the barbarism of Taliban, also listen to the news of UP. Yogiji has decided to open ATS commando centre in Deoband with immediate effect.”

Barq said the Uttar Pradesh government is “busy making anti-Muslim policies”, calling Deoband a terror hub and setting up the centre there as a means to further its “politics of hate”.

“What has Deoband done to be labelled as such? It is an Islamic seminary where alim (Islamic scholars) study, what is wrong there?”

“This is a policy of hate which they think will win them the elections.”

Hindu supremacists ‘reactivating hysteria’

Hate attacks on India’s Muslims, including public lynchings and targeting of their businesses, have become a daily affair in India.

Last year, as the coronavirus pandemic erupted, a group of Islamic missionaries, called the Tablighi Jamaat, was blamed for spreading the virus in India.

In its 2020 report, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) called India a “country of particular concern”.

“The national government allowed violence against minorities and their houses of worship to continue with impunity, and also engaged in and tolerated hate speech and incitement to violence,” the report said.

Since the fall of Kabul, Indian TV channels have run shows portraying Muslims as “Taliban apologists” or its “spokespersons”. The daily debates saw prominent Muslims such as Rana and Barq forced to explain themselves while BJP panellists called them “Talibani”.

On one of the shows, a state official said that India should learn from what happened in Afghanistan and keep “Islamic fundamentalism” in check.

A deluge of misinformation also engulfed newsrooms. Old videos and photos from Syria, Yemen or Iraq were passed off as incidents from Afghanistan. A number of fact-checking websites debunked the claims.

According to Ahmad, allegations of “barbarism” and atrocities against women by Muslim men were used by Hindu supremacists to “reactivate hysteria” against the Taliban and continue humiliating Muslims.

Many Indian Muslims say they are scrutinised whenever a terror-related incident involving Muslims happens anywhere and the community is expected to condemn the act.

On the question of why Muslims should be held accountable for events abroad, Ahmad said: “The assumption is since your religion is Islam and it is a global religion, therefore you have to condemn it”.

“But the reverse is never assumed. That is, for good, humanitarian works by Muslims abroad, Indian Muslims are never held responsible, nor do such works by Indian Muslims become news for the media in India,” he said.

 

link  :  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/1/islamophobia-india-hindu-right-wing-taliban-afghanistan

[3 bucks new rv rate]

As US exits Afghanistan, China eyes $1 trillion in minerals

Afghanistan, now under the control of the Taliban, is sitting on what could be the world’s largest lithium reserves, among other precious deposits.

As the United States races to evacuate thousands of Americans and vulnerable Afghans after a rushed troop withdrawal that ended 20 years of war, US President Joe Biden has taken steps to isolate the new Taliban-led administration economically

 

 

By Iain Marlow and Enda CurranBloomberg

24 Aug 2021

 

When the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001, the global economy looked a lot different: Tesla Inc. wasn’t a company, the iPhone didn’t exist and artificial intelligence was best known as a Steven Spielberg film.

Now all three are at the cutting edge of a modern economy driven by advancements in high-tech chips and large-capacity batteries that are made with a range of minerals, including rare earths. And Afghanistan is sitting on deposits estimated to be worth $1 trillion or more, including what may be the world’s largest lithium reserves — if anyone can get them out of the ground.

Four decades of war — first with the Soviet Union, then between warring tribes, then with the U.S. — prevented that from happening. That’s not expected to change anytime soon, with the Taliban already showing signs they want to reimpose a theocracy that turns back the clock on women’s rights and other basic freedoms rather than lead Afghanistan to a prosperous future.

But there’s also an optimistic outlook, now being pushed by Beijing, that goes like this: The Taliban form an “inclusive” government with warlords of competing ethnic groups, allows a minimal level of basic human rights for women and minorities, and fights terrorist elements that want to strike the U.S., China, India or any other country.

“With the U.S. withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment,” Zhou Bo, who was a senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army from 2003 to 2020, wrote in an op-ed in the New York Times over the weekend. “Afghanistan in turn has what China most prizes: opportunities in infrastructure and industry building — areas in which China’s capabilities are arguably unmatched — and access to $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.”

For that scenario to have even a remote possibility, much depends on what happens the next few weeks. Although the U.S. is racing to evacuate thousands of Americans and vulnerable Afghans after a rushed troop withdrawal ending 20 years of war, President Joe Biden still has the power to isolate any new Taliban-led government on the world stage and stop most companies from doing business in the country.

The U.S. maintains sanctions on the Taliban as an entity, and it can veto any moves by China and Russia to ease United Nations Security Council restrictions on the militant group. Washington has already frozen nearly $9.5 billion in Afghanistan’s reserves and the International Monetary Fund has cut off financing for Afghanistan, including nearly $500 million that was scheduled to be disbursed around when the Taliban took control.

To have any hope of accessing those funds, it will be crucial for the Taliban to facilitate a smooth evacuation of foreigners and vulnerable Afghans, negotiate with warlords to prevents another civil war and halt a range of human-rights abuses. Already tensions are growing over an Aug. 31 deadline for troops to withdraw, with the Taliban warning the U.S. not to cross what it called a “red line.”

Still, the Taliban have several reasons to exercise restraint. Kabul faces a growing economic crisis, with prices of staples like flour and oil surging, pharmacies running short on drugs and ATMs depleted of cash. The militant group this week appointed a new central bank chief to address those problems, just as his exiled predecessor warned of shocks that could lead to a weaker currency, faster inflation and capital controls.

‘Nothing Is Unchanged Forever’

The Taliban have also sought good international relations, particularly with China. Officials and state-run media have softened the ground for good relations, with the Communist Party-backed Global Times reporting that Chinese investment is likely to be “widely accepted” in Afghanistan. Another report argued the “the U.S. is in no position to meddle with any potential cooperation between China and Afghanistan, including on rare earths.”

“Some people stress their distrust for the Afghan Taliban — we want to say that nothing is unchanged forever,” Hua Chunying, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said last week. “We need to see the past and present. We need to listen to words and watch actions.”

For China, Afghanistan holds economic and strategic value. Leaders in Beijing have repeatedly called on the Taliban to prevent terrorists from plotting attacks against China, and view strong economic ties as key to ensuring stability. They also see an opportunity to invest in the country’s mineral sector, which can then be transported back on Chinese-financed infrastructure that includes about $60 billion of projects in neighboring Pakistan.

U.S. officials estimated in 2010 that Afghanistan had $1 trillion of unexplored mineral deposits, and the Afghan government has said they’re worth three times as much. They include vast reserves of lithium, rare earths and copper — materials critical to the global green-energy transition. But flimsy infrastructure in the landlocked country, along with poor security, have hampered efforts to mine and profit off the reserves.

US Marines and Norwegian coalition forces assist with security at an Evacuation Control Checkpoint ensuring evacuees are processed safely during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan

 

 

The Taliban takeover comes at a critical time for the battery-materials supply chain: Producers are looking to invest in more upstream assets to secure lithium supply ahead of what Macquarie has called a “perpetual deficit.” The U.S., Japan and Europe have been seeking to cut their dependence on China for rare earths, which are used in items such as permanent magnets, though the moves are expected to take years and require millions of dollars of government support system" rel="">support.

One major problem for the Taliban is a lack of skilled policy makers, according to Nematullah Bizhan, a former economic adviser to the finance ministry.

 

“In the past they appointed unqualified people into key specialized positions, such as the finance ministry and central bank,” said Bizhan, now a lecturer in public policy at the Australian National University. “If they do the same, that will have negative implications for the economy and for growth in Afghanistan.”

China Burned

Officially, Afghanistan’s economy has seen rapid growth in recent years as billions in aid flooded the country. But that expansion has fluctuated with donor assistance, showing “how artificial and thus unsustainable the growth has been,” according to a recent report from the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.

China has been burned before. In the mid-2000s, investors led by state-owned Metallurgical Corp. of China Ltd. won an almost $3 billion bid to mine copper at Mes Aynak, near Kabul. It still hasn’t seen any output due to a series of delays ranging from security concerns to the discovery of historical artifacts, and there’s still no rail or power plant. MCC said in its 2020 annual report it was negotiating with the Afghan government about the mining contract after earlier saying it was economically unviable.

The Taliban is trying to show the world it has changed from its oppressive rule in the 1990s, saying it welcomes foreign investment from all countries and won’t allow terrorists to use Afghanistan as a base. Janan Mosazai, a former Afghan ambassador to both Pakistan and China who joined the private sector in 2018, sees “tremendous opportunities for the Afghan economy to take off” if the Taliban prove they’re serious about “walking the talk.”

But not many are optimistic. Reports have emerged of targeted killings, a massacre of ethnic minorities, violent suppression of protests and Taliban soldiers demanding to marry local women.

“Everyone’s just in crisis mode,” said Sarah Wahedi, a 26-year-old tech entrepreneur from Afghanistan who recently fled the country. “I don’t see the entrepreneurs getting back to business unless there’s a huge overhaul in the Taliban’s behavior. And there’s nothing I’ve seen that makes me think that’s going to happen.”

 

link  :  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/24/as-us-exits-afghanistan-china-eyes-1-trillion-in-minerals

[3 bucks new rv rate]

China seeks stability in Afghanistan before economic dialogue

While China’s foreign affairs officials are signalling friendship and cooperation, it will take much deeper action on the ground to move anywhere near real engagement.

Meetings between Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Taliban leadership including political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (left) in China last month were important for laying the groundwork for further communication between the two parties

 

 

By Michael Standaert

18 Aug 2021

 

Shenzhen, China – In the coming weeks and months, if not years, China will need to walk a tightrope related to economic and security engagements in Afghanistan or risk the fate other major powers have suffered by engaging in conflicts that drained them financially and at the cost of many lives.

China’s concerns over stability in the region and the potential for a security vacuum that emboldens militants there outweigh a desire to tap into Afghanistan’s mineral wealth and further advance regional infrastructure connections through the area in the near term.

The sudden takeover of the country by Taliban forces, two weeks before United States troops were meant to fully withdraw after nearly two decades of conflict there, has placed China in an uncertain position as it attempts to determine how to deal with its new neighbours in power in Kabul.

“It is very important for China to see how the Taliban stabilise the situation,” Zhang Li, a professor at the Sichuan University’s Institute of South Asian Studies, told Al Jazeera. “I think the most important step is political reconciliation. Talk of major economic engagement is too early.”

Meetings between Taliban leadership and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the end of July were important for laying the groundwork for further communication between the two parties, particularly for China in signalling its significant interests in a stable outcome as well as assurances on security, Zhang said.

When a Chinese state-owned company paid $3bn in 2007 for rights to one of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits beneath the ancient Buddhist ruins of Mes Aynak in Logar province, the company became Afghanistan’s biggest investor – but the mining never began due to security and infrastructure issues

 

Statements like the ones from China’s foreign ministry on Monday about maintaining “friendly and cooperative relations” with Afghanistan are likely to continue as long as the situation remains stable and the Taliban keeps its word about engaging with other political entities in the country.

“China made it quite clear that the situation on the ground needs to be stable, and that they want to see positive developments,” Zhang said. “If the Taliban can keep its promise properly and improve security, not allow militants to go against other countries, including China, I think it’s quite possible for China to consider economic engagement, in a big way.”

 

Future governance

For now, though, China will be watching to see what form of government emerges, in what manner the Taliban wields power, and whether or not it forms an inclusive government.

Such actions could lead to diplomatic recognition for a Taliban-led government on the part of countries like Pakistan, Russia and China – a possible significant early step to longer-term engagement, according to Andrew Small, a senior fellow with the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund, currently based in Berlin.

“They don’t want to be stuck dealing with a kind of pariah state again in their neighbourhood,” Small told Al Jazeera. “I think they do see this as a window where if there is a government that can last, it needs to be something where there is some sharing of power with other political forces.”

While China may like seeing the US out of its backyard, it may be underestimating the extent of the challenges that it faces in Afghanistan largely due to its reliance on Pakistan for information about the situation there, Daniel Markey, director of the Global Policy Program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“There is a kind of a triumphalism about what’s happened, and an expectation that China could perhaps, in a way, swoop in and pick up the pieces,” Markey said based on commentary he’s been observing from some Chinese experts. “If they actually believe that, they’re going to be in for a rude shock, if not immediately, then over time.”

The Taliban will likely need to cooperate with a range of constituencies within Afghanistan, both because of outside pressure to do so, and because the movement lacks the manpower to pacify and run the country well, Markey said.

“If it doesn’t devolve into an outright civil war they’re going to have to grant a great deal of autonomy to different regions,” he said. “This presents China with the possibility of cultivating ties with certain segments of society, but also creates the risk of pockets of threats for China.”

Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies based in Singapore, told Al Jazeera that Chinese authorities are “fairly clear-eyed” about what they’re dealing with in the Taliban and that claims that Chinese investment could soon start to pour into the county are wildly overblown.

“Why do we now suddenly think that Beijing is going say, ‘Oh, now everything’s rosy let’s go rushing in and you know, mine lithium in Helmand [province]’ which is, you know, an incredibly rural place with no infrastructure to speak of?” Pantucci asked.

Excavation of the ancient Buddhist ruins in Mes Aynak was one factor delaying plans by state-run China Metallurgical Group Corp to mine one of the world’s largest copper deposit

 

 

Pantucci pointed to two better-known major investment projects – a contract with a Chinese state-owned company to develop a copper mine in Mes Aynak in 2007, and a tender for an oil field project in Amu Darya with China National Petroleum Corp in 2011 – that essentially went nowhere close to being developed.

“Even with stability previously, it wasn’t clear to me ever that the Chinese government was pushing its companies into Afghanistan at all,” he said.

A wait-and-see approach

If there are steps towards international recognition of a Taliban-led government in Kabul and the stability to maintain that, Small told Al Jazeera, it is likely China could create a sense that “there’s a lot more on offer further down the line,” he said, with the possibility of engagement on all kinds of investment discussions and short-term aid.

“The question, though, is really going to be on any of the serious longer-term projects, whether that’s the copper mine, or any major infrastructure connections and things, I think [China’s authorities] will just sit for a while and see what emerges,” Small said.

While China’s foreign affairs officials are signalling friendship and cooperation, it will take much deeper action on the ground to move anywhere near real engagement.

“I don’t see them trying to possibly have any greater confidence about the Taliban’s capacity to be a good partner, say of exploiting Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, than the last government,” Markey said. “The last government wasn’t great, but it was backed for 20 years by US security.”

Another major issue for China is whether the Taliban ascendance will embolden other militants in the region, particularly the Taliban in Pakistan, or any groups intent on using China’s repression and anti-terrorism campaign against its Uighur minority in the Xinjiang region as a rallying cry against the country.

“Terrorism is a big challenge for China, so that’s also something China is especially concerned about,” Zhang said of assurances the government in Beijing is seeking from the Taliban.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think-tank, said that the swift takeover had surprised everyone, including China, and much depends on what the Taliban does next.

“Whether it resumes its previous draconian policies or begins to moderate, and whether it maintains ties with and support system" rel="">support of radical Islamic groups, especially the Uighur ones,” will determine relations with China and any economic engagement afterwards, she said.

 

link  :  https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/8/18/china-seeks-stability-in-afghanistan-before-economic-dialogue