Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
  • CRYPTO REWARDS!

    Full endorsement on this opportunity - but it's limited, so get in while you can!

AMC to the MOON!


keylime
 Share

Recommended Posts

The Fed is Currently Investigating Goldman Sachs

6ae0cf0d4f6d42367ee9b06a88a2c0e3?s=96&d=http%3A%2F%2F0.gravatar.com%2Favatar%2Fad516503a11cd5ca435acc9bb6523536%3Fs%3D96&r=PG

FrankNez

Jan 20

Market News: The Fed launches an investigation into Goldman Sachs.
The Fed launches an investigation into Goldman Sachs | Goldman Sachs under investigation.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is probing whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc's consumer business had appropriate safeguards in place as the bank ramped up lending, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Shares of the investment bank were down nearly 3% at $341.08 in afternoon trade.

The central bank is concerned the Wall Street giant did not have proper monitoring and control systems inside Marcus, its consumer unit, as it grew larger, the report said.

The probe, which grew out of a standard Fed review of the business in 2021 and intensified into an investigation last year, is also examining instances of customer harm and whether they were properly resolved, the report added.

"The Federal Reserve is our primary federal bank regulator and we do not comment on the accuracy or inaccuracy of matters relating to discussions with them," a Goldman spokesperson told Reuters.

Bloomberg News reported in September that the bank's Marcus unit was facing a Fed review.

The probe would add to troubles for Goldman, which is executing a strategic pivot that includes refocusing on its core trading and investment banking business after losing money in its consumer banking venture.

"Another investigation into the consumer business makes Goldman's foray into consumer look even worse, and can reduce management credibility, particularly given so many statements about GS' ability to manage risk and build best-in-class platforms," said Mike Mayo, banking analyst at Wells Fargo, in a note.

"The investigation, along with poor disclosure and other regulatory investigations, will increase the risk associated with owning GS and its cost of capital."

Goldman's credit card business is also being investigated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the bank disclosed last year.

Source(s): Reuters.

Hedge Fund Investigations: Citadel Securities

Fed investigates Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and others in 2022 sweep.
Fed investigates Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and others in 2022 sweep.

Bloomberg confirmed in 2022 that Citadel Securities was one of the hedge funds under investigation by the Department of Justice.

Regulators took Morgan Stanely and several other hedge funds to court after several subpoenas were sent out earlier in the year.

pic.twitter.com/p42YVeY6wz

— Mitch Kerbel (@mitchkerbel) February 18, 2022

Predatorial short selling strategies were exposed by the AMC and GME stock communities after the ‘meme stock’ frenzy fiasco in 2021.

Both these stocks’ share prices have been suppressed by dark pool trading, naked short selling, spoofing, and through OTC trading.

The hedge fund was being investigated after subpoenas were sent to numerous hedge funds and banks who might be connected.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are two of the banks that were also ordered to court.

Among Citadel is a hedge fund by the name of Element according to the Bloomberg report.

  • Thanks 4
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Gypsygirl11 said:

Cost to borrow over 900%!!!!!!!!!!!

Squeeze comin!!!!!

You would think I have no idea how they are still holding on paying these fees?? Unless somehow the banks are letting them slide because once again they seem to be shorting as well who knows! I would think this is about to blow sky high, personally hopefully before the reverse split happens either way let’s go to the moon soon!!!

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
  • Pow! 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Gypsygirl11 said:

Cost to borrow over 900%!!!!!!!!!!!

Squeeze comin!!!!!

According to Ant's Trader the squeeze started today. We will see a slight pull back in the morning then a run up to 8-10 dollars. And that will lead to a possible 140 dollar open on Monday or Tuesday because he expects it to run in Pre market. He expects it to go down from there then run back up for a couple days and continue the fractal from there. This isn't the MOASS yet but it could trigger it. 

If that happens and we open around 140 and it starts to drop I'm selling and then buying back in when it bottoms and starts to rise again. And take some profits.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
  • Pow! 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, keylime said:

According to Ant's Trader the squeeze started today. We will see a slight pull back in the morning then a run up to 8-10 dollars. And that will lead to a possible 140 dollar open on Monday or Tuesday because he expects it to run in Pre market. He expects it to go down from there then run back up for a couple days and continue the fractal from there. This isn't the MOASS yet but it could trigger it. 

If that happens and we open around 140 and it starts to drop I'm selling and then buying back in when it bottoms and starts to rise again. And take some profits.

God I hope so definitely need it!!!

  • Pow! 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Dinarrock said:

You would think I have no idea how they are still holding on paying these fees?? Unless somehow the banks are letting them slide because once again they seem to be shorting as well who knows! I would think this is about to blow sky high, personally hopefully before the reverse split happens either way let’s go to the moon soon!!!

Cost to Borrow is so high they have less shares to borrow. But they are paying through the nose and this is about to get spicy 🔥

  • Pow! 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Gypsygirl11 said:

I saw somewhere today where the Max CTB was over a 1000!  That's gotta be a record

Yes. It's higher than when we ran to 72 June 2021. There are so many outside pressurized factors in this now that hasn't been before, on top of the last two years of selling billions of fake shares and naked shorts for both AMC and APE. In fact, there was no APE the last time this popped, so that in itself will be interesting to see the price action on in reaction to an AMC squeeze. They both may run up like crazy, which they should, since they are virtually the same company and will soon be, after the vote, the same stock symbol. AMC. 

So since they are willing to pay this interest rate, they have to be desperate.

Hopefully, Ants Trades is on to something. He shows this whole three year market manipulation is an algorithmic loop that has reached the end of its cycle. And the end of the cycle always sees a hard squeeze.

However, even though it is tracking perfectly, the algorithm can slow it down or speed it up making predicting the timing of the price targets difficult. But the fact that there is a predictable pattern, he argues, there will be a squeeze as there has been the last couple times, both, coincidentally, on a Wednesday. So he feels somewhere between Pre Market Monday and After Market Wednesday this thing should see All Time Highs(ATH). 

The only thing he can't predict is how an ATH this time will affect the stock. It could send it into MOASS, or the loop could be reset and we start a new three year cycle until MOASS does happen. If it doesn't MOASS from this next run up and restarts the new cycle, he sees another squeeze in June possibly into the thousands that could send it into MOASS.

So the pattern is clear, but the timing is foggy. Next week I guess I will be getting up at 4 am on Monday and watching from then through the week to see if the cycle runs its course like it has the last three years.

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 3
  • Pow! 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Gypsygirl11 said:

Yes keylime you guys have been so patient. Something will happen next week, it has too. I don't have much of AMC and ape since I'm mostly invested in crypto but I'm in a little bit, let's see what happens God-bless. I'd love to see it get up to 140.00!!! And a thousand would be unbelievable!

Thank you Gypsygirl11!

Patience is a Dinar holder. HA!

A thousand would be just the beginning of the MOASS.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
  • Pow! 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Pitcher said:

 

 

Never selling mine until it’s time.   That’s AMC, Dinar, Dong, Silver, Gold, Exxon, and Cryptos.  Investing is all about waiting.  

I have all of that you stated, except Exxon Pitcher. Is it too late to buy Exxon? Haven't done any research on it yet. A good friend mentioned he had Exxon and Chevron 2 days ago and was killing it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ants Trader and his weekend video. I want everyone to be aware that a squeeze may happen next week and not be caught by surprise. Some time between Monday Pre Market and Wednesday this thing could fly. Not necessarily the MOASS but high enough to take some profits and buy back in when it goes back down.

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goldman Says Bigger Short Squeezes Coming Since Meme Stock Frenzy

Goldman Sachs Short Squeeze Market News Today: Goldman Sachs talks short squeezes in 2023.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is reporting hedge funds betting against stocks globally abandoned those short positions last week at the fastest pace since 2015, surpassing the speed of exits during the ‘meme stock’ frenzy in 2021.

The latest short squeeze, implying that stock prices rose so much that bearish bets become too expensive to hold, saw hedge funds caught out by a sharp rally in equities on Feb. 2 after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of interest rate hikes and markets anticipated that rates would peak soon, per Reuters.

According to the Goldman note, the speed at which hedge funds exited bearish positions surpassed that seen in January 2021 when retail traders managed to squeeze short sellers out of stocks such as videogame retailer Gamestop (NYSE:GME) and movie theatre operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC).

During the ‘meme stock’ frenzy in 2021, GameStop shares rose to nearly $500 per share, or +1,500% that year.

AMC shares rose from $2 early that year to an all-time high of $72 per share, more than +3,000%.

Today, both AMC and GameStop remain heavily shorted with AMC Entertainment having a higher-than-ever cost to borrow fee.

Experts say hedge funds remain bearish

AMC-Short-Squeeze-Potential.jpg?resize=6

Despite the massive short covering, hedge fund managers do not seem to be more upbeat about markets.

“Positioning isn’t ‘high’ and it doesn’t seem like many investors are bullish, per se,” JPMorgan’s Positioning Intelligence said in a note reviewed by Reuters, adding it has also seen hedge funds adding some shorts in highly shorted stocks.

It seems institutional investors are not entirely switching sides yet but are continuing to add to their short positions on already heavily shorted stocks.

Still, short interest in both AMC and GameStop has both risen and fluctuated, signaling few shorts closing.

AMC Entertainment stock is up more than +60% this year-to-date, GME stock more than +34%.

The movie theatre chain has a high short interest of 22.84% with an extremely high cost to borrow of 239.91%.

Hedge funds will need to determine whether it’s worth paying millions of dollars per month in fees just to short AMC stock.

A short squeeze may be triggered at any moment as this weight gets too heavy.

Industrials and Information Technology Companies

stock-market-investing.jpg?resize=676%2C

The largest short positions held by hedge funds were in industrials and information technology companies, the Goldman note said.

It added that hedge funds also exited many long positions in Asian developing markets and Chinese equities last week.

Resurgent risk appetite among some investors has also fueled rallies in the shares of so-called meme stocks since the start of this year, though many analysts are skeptical the recent moves will last, said Reuters.

But I disagree.

AMC Entertainment may have bottomed out as we see the stock price bounce and retest major levels of support.

The company’s high short interest and cost to borrow has grown substantially over the past two years.

Major price action may trigger short sellers to close their positions, initiating a chain reaction that will lead to a short squeeze.

The short thesis for AMC Entertainment is getting weaker as new developments surface in the entertainment industry.

Goldman Sachs is right, massive short squeezes are coming.

And the retail investor is about to put Wall Street upside down again, just like they did during the ‘meme stock’ frenzy of 2021.

  • Thanks 2
  • Upvote 1
  • Pow! 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Her's what one of the investment services are saying about AMC/APE.

 

AMC/APE: Limits To Arbitrage

Feb. 08, 2023 3:57 AM ETAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), APE3 Comments2 Likes

Summary

  • The upcoming March 14 2023 vote should almost certainly cause APE and AMC values to converge because of specific language regarding how APE units will 'vote'.
  • Once the vote is complete the value of AMC shares could collapse.
  • However, implementation of any 'riskless' arbitrage is problematic given the absence of any borrow.
  • Once the vote is complete, AMC investors may face additional dilution and actually consider what the shares are worth. That may be under $1 (or $10 post reverse split).

 

Male chimpanzee in business clothes

lisegagne

 

Why APE Shares Should Convert On March 16

On March 16, 2023, the upcoming vote will very likely collapse the gap between APE preferred (APE) and AMC (NYSE:AMC) shares. That's because APE units will effectively become AMC shares if all goes to plan.

There was some concern that there may not be enough votes for the APE shares to convert. The reason why this shouldn't be a problem is buried in section 4.5 of the deposit agreement (and hat tip to Matt Levine who flagged this).

"In the absence of specific instructions from Holders of Receipts, the Depositary will vote the Preferred Stock represented by the AMC Preferred Equity Units evidenced by the Receipts of such Holders proportionately with votes cast pursuant to instructions received from the other Holders."

That's important. What it means is that whatever proportion of APE units vote yes, all APE units will vote in the same proportion. This eliminates any risk from non-voting, and it only applies to APE units not AMC shares. We already know that Antara's APE units (approx. 257M) are voting to convert to AMC shares. So given the way the voting process works that should be sufficient to get a majority of APE's voting in favor. There's really no reason for any APE holder to vote against and provided at least 57% of voting APE's vote yes, then the vote will pass. That's true even if AMC shareholders all voted no because there are more APE units than AMC shares (about 1.8 APEs for each AMC share). Voting no is arguably not in an AMC shareholder's interest either as AMC does need some capital to pay down debt.

Limits To Arbitrage

Now, knowing that two tradeable assets that trade around $6 and $3 should converge in price next month, should open up a golden opportunity, but putting on the trade is not that easy.

No Borrow To Short

First off we might want to short AMC and long APE. Indeed, that's something I suggested in October, and more recently there's also been a great write up on it from an more academic standpoint from Kevin Mak. The problem with that now is no AMC borrow is available. Borrow was getting very expensive, at the time of writing, now it just isn't there. That may change of course. It also makes sense that all the AMC stock that can be shorted should be, because there are 1.8x more APE units than AMC stock.

Put Options

Then you might want to use options. The challenge there is that there are no options on APE units, and options on AMC are now aggressively pricing in convergence if you buy put options. The options chain strongly suggests that AMC shares will be equal to APE shares at the time of the vote. As such after commissions and spreads, using put options on AMC to close the gap may not leave you with a profit.

Call Options

Call options are potentially interesting, you could potentially sell calls on AMC, though your losses would be infinite. You could manage that risk by buying a corresponding call at a higher strike. However, again at least one brokerage has blocked even this strategy, and there is a risk that your calls are assigned before expiry. However, Interactive Brokers do currently permit this.

Owning APE

Another strategy that has been suggested is to just go long APE. The problem with that, as we'll see below is the two securities very well may not meet in the middle. After the vote closes there's a chance AMC shares trade closer to fair value, and I'm not sure fair value is in the $3-$6 range we'll get to that next.

Resulting Value

However, even assuming that APE units do convert to AMC shares the resulting business may trade below where AMC and APE currently suggest. Here's why.

1. The Operational Challenge

Pre-COVID AMC did $200M-$300M of operating income annually relatively consistently. They haven't got back to that and the key headwind is that box office receipts are way below pre-pandemic levels. January 2023 saw 65% of January 2020 receipts according to Box Office Mojo. The best month of 2022 was July, and that was around 85% of pre-pandemic levels in terms of box office receipts, and that month was something of a one-off compared to the rest of 2022. Maybe a firm movie pipeline, strong pricing and reduced competition will enable AMC to get back to operational performance levels similar to pre-pandemic levels, but currently we're not seeing it. We'll learn more with AMC Q4 results in a few weeks.

2. The Capital Structure Challenge

But then even if AMC returns to around $300M of operating profit, their interest expense is approximately $315M ($4.5B of net debt at 7% interest). Even that is slightly charitable as they are unlikely to be able to refinance debt at 7% rates and I'm working of net debt rather than absolute debt levels. As such there may not be a return for shareholders as interest expense would consume any profits (and there aren't any profits currently).

Share Issuance

The answer for AMC may be further share issuance, this may be anti-dilutive if it can be done at high enough prices. Assuming APE shares convert the company has 1.5 billion shares out and no real earnings if you believe the projections above. However, that can change with share issuance. The projections below assume 7% interest and that all earnings from any share issuance pay down debt.

Share Issuance Debt (after paydown from share issuance) Estimated Earnings ($300M less 7% interest on debt) Per Share Value (20x earnings) Valuation adjusted for pending reverse split
none $4.5B $0 $0/share $0/share
100M @$3 $4.2B $6M $0.08/share $0.8/share
200M @$5 $3.5B $55M $0.64/share $6.4/share
500M @$6 $1.5B $195M $1.95/share $19.5/share

So if after APEs convert then AMC can do share issuance, they AMC shares may have some value, even if those participating in any issuance itself may get a bad deal. However, I find it hard to create a realistic scenario where the shares are worth over $2/share (or $20/share post split). If you believe that it's one reason to be careful about just owning the 'long' side of the arbitrage trade only because once the smoke clears after conversion in March, the shares might trade lower when the focus is not arbitrage profits and short squeezes, but just a movie theater business willing and able to issue shares to pay down debt.

Short Squeeze?

And of course, prior to the March vote shares may trade anywhere. It's clear that pricing isn't rational today because of the spread between APE and AMC and maybe only the execution of the vote on March 14 can change that. However, after the vote a short squeeze is unlikely for two reasons.

Firstly, anyone implementing the arbitrage correctly will go from being short one AMC share and long an APE, to short an AMC share and long an AMC share. Hence they are perfectly hedged and not scrambling to buy AMC shares. Then secondly, management per the analysis above is likely to issue as many shares as they can to pay down debt and sort out the capital structure. A short squeeze may occur, but it may not last.

Risks

  • Final proxy for the special meeting has not been shared yet. There may be unforeseen issues with the voting structure or meeting preventing APE/AMC conversion, or the vote may simply fail depending on how people vote.
  • Management will likely report earnings before the special meeting and may announce other initiatives that impact the value of AMC/APE.
  • AMC and APE shares have been extremely volatile with various investors apparently actively trying to create a short squeeze.
  • Options trading and short selling of AMC/APE shares is currently constrained by rules imposed by brokerages and simply very limited borrow of AMC shares. Hence many trades here that should work in theory are not implementable in practice or not profitable after all the costs of the trade are considered.
  • Even trades that are implementable are subject to risks before the shareholder vote (margin calls etc.)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.