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Seems more hedge funds are coming back into AMC on the short side.

 

Short Sellers Are Wading Back Into This Meme Stock

By Dan Ferris, editor, Extreme Value


Maybe, just maybe, the stock market is starting to return to normal...

I know that's the last thing those who know my work expect me to say.

So don't misunderstand what I mean by "return to normal." I'm still bearish on the overall stock market.

I still feel like a drawdown – even a market crash – is within sight. That's what I mean by "return to normal." And I promise, as painful as it would be for those who aren't prepared for it, a bear market in stocks would be a very good thing in the long run.

The more investors grow accustomed to high valuations getting higher, the more distorted their thinking becomes... the more inclined they'll be to engage in dangerous speculations... and the worse they'll be blindsided when reality reasserts itself (as it always has and always will).

So when I say, "Maybe the stock market is starting to return to normal," I mean that today's valuations are way above normal – and maybe that's all about to change over the next several weeks and months.

Here's one reason why I think we're headed back to more normal valuations...


Some of the most egregious signs of speculative frenzy appear to be behind us.

I'm talking first and foremost about "meme stocks." The most popular one today is AMC Entertainment (AMC).

The stock's 52-week low is $1.91, reached on January 5 of this year. Its 52-week high is $72.62, also using intraday prices, achieved on June 2 of this year. That's right... It became a 38-bagger, a 3,700% winner, in slightly less than five months.

Today, a little more than two months after becoming a 38-bagger, AMC is trading around $37, a drop of nearly 50%. Shares are still egregiously overvalued, but the fact that they're down nearly 50% is reassuring to me.

It could be a sign that the market feels like it sucked in enough losers and is ready to show them what happens when you have no idea what you're doing.

The other famous meme stock, GameStop (GME), looks about the same. Its 52-week low, hit on August 20, 2020, is $4.51. And its 52-week high, reached on January 28, is $483. That's more than a 100-bagger from bottom to top. It's trading near $160 today, down nearly 70%.

And now, short sellers – who got burned in the speculative mania – are wading back into the fray...

I noticed that, about a month ago, AMC canceled plans to sell as many as 25 million new shares for proceeds of approximately $1 billion. The Financial Times reported that AMC appeared "to have hit the limit of what its existing shareholders will tolerate."

Then, a report came out that said Odey Asset Management, a fairly well-known hedge fund, had taken a short position in AMC. In a letter to investors, Odey manager James Hanbury told clients that retail investors' frenzied meme stock speculations were among several factors that have "created major distortions" leading to "compelling short opportunities."

You might recall that the meme stocks soared so high so quickly because retail-investor buying prompted large hedge funds to buy, so they could limit their rapidly growing losses in large short positions.

With $4.1 billion under management, Odey is not enormous by today's standards. But the fact its team is willing to step back into the fray tells me perhaps they believe the worst craziness is finally behind us now... that the meme stocks will trade more in line with their business prospects.

Not only that, but famous short seller Jim Chanos said last Tuesday that he has a bet against the stock.

AMC owns movie theaters and has $11 billion in debt. GME owns stores that sell old video-game DVDs. Both businesses have been in decline for a decade or more.

These stocks traded in the ballpark of 0.1 times sales before all the meme-stock nonsense. Today, AMC is around 11 times sales, GME around 2. A return to pre-nonsense levels would send both stocks down to roughly 95% or so below current levels, and closer to 98% or 99% below their meme-era highs.

In this case, I see that the market is getting back to its long-term job of assigning asset prices that reflect the fundamentals...

And I see this as one of the signs that a downturn is on the horizon.

U.S. stocks are bumping against their most expensive valuations in history, according to all the metrics that have correlated most closely with historical returns...

For example, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of the benchmark S&P 500 Index has negatively correlated with subsequent 10- and 12-year average annual returns about 90% of the time since 1928.

In other words, when valuations have been high, the returns that follow have been low.

Today, the P/S ratio of the S&P 500 sits at a little more than 3, meaning share prices of the United States' biggest companies are more than three times higher than their sales. That might sound like a lot, and it is...

The P/S ratio of the S&P 500 now is roughly 35% higher than it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

I could cite plenty of other metrics, but you get the picture. I still expect that at some point, we'll see a drop in the S&P 500 in line with previous all-time high valuations, somewhere between 50% and 65%... and an even bigger drop for many individual stocks.

What should you do? I can answer that question...

Prepare, don't predict. That means holding stocks, bonds, plenty of cash, silver, gold, and maybe a little bitcoin if you're comfortable with it.

Ben Graham, the father of value investing, said the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. So maybe the voting period on meme stocks – and soon enough, the U.S. stock market – is over.

Let the weighing begin...

Good investing,

Dan Ferris

Edited by md11fr8dawg
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31 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:

Seems the news has cooled off as of late on GME and AMC.

 

A lot of them supposedly have been cut off from you tube or bought off

to stop posting. Trey is still around and Uncle Lou said that he is getting

dumped on too so he will be posting on Rumble.

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I was hoping to be cashing in today! I have patience maybe I don't understand the stock market enough, but as the great Luke Skywalker said, "I have a bad feeling about this." Either nothing is going on or they are doing a GREAT job keeping this offline and on the low. Come one AMC Peak 1 time...1 time I dare ya! Bet you won't hit $400 per? 

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48 minutes ago, txwWrestling said:

I was hoping to be cashing in today! I have patience maybe I don't understand the stock market enough, but as the great Luke Skywalker said, "I have a bad feeling about this." Either nothing is going on or they are doing a GREAT job keeping this offline and on the low. Come one AMC Peak 1 time...1 time I dare ya! Bet you won't hit $400 per? 

 

Not taking that dare as I KNOW  it will go alot and I mean alot HIGHER THAN THAT. 

 

Heggies and fighting for their lives right now. Tuesday the new rules kick in.

 

Then we really see some action 🎬 😎 

 

Stay Strong,  HODL, We Apes will see our future payday really quick.

 

pp

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6 minutes ago, pokerplayer said:

 

Not taking that dare as I KNOW  it will go alot and I mean alot HIGHER THAN THAT. 

 

Heggies and fighting for their lives right now. Tuesday the new rules kick in.

 

Then we really see some action 🎬 😎 

 

Stay Strong,  HODL, We Apes will see our future payday really quick.

 

pp

PP, Thanks so what new rules start Tuesday? I must have missed a post...Thanks my friend! Have a great Friday!

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As the kids say I double dog dare ya!  :D

Have a great weekend friends and all the Apes across 

the sea.  I don't know if this an omen but a friend gave

me a bamboo plant and told me to look close at the pot.

OMG there was a tiny brown ceramic APE sitting at the base!!!  :woot: :woot:

1 hour ago, txwWrestling said:

Come one AMC Peak 1 time...1 time I dare ya!

 

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2 minutes ago, nannab said:

As the kids say I double dog dare ya!  :D

Have a great weekend friends and all the Apes across 

the sea.  I don't know if this an omen but a friend gave

me a bamboo plant and told me to look close at the pot.

OMG there was a tiny brown ceramic APE sitting at the base!!!  :woot: :woot:

 

I'm taking it as a positive sign! Nana go out and enjoy your weekend! GO AMC!

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On 8/11/2021 at 11:59 AM, pokerplayer said:

Here, Try this

 

BREAKING: NSCC-2021-010 Prevents Naked Shorting and FTDs

NSCC AMC NSCC-2021-010 AMC News

Community, this new proposal is massive. The NSCC is taking accountability as a third party between lenders. We now have a referee in the market saying everyone needs to play fair. Here’s what’s going with proposal NSCC-2021-010.

Update: this proposal will be filed on August 23rd and effective on August 24th per this FINRA letter, page 3. Bookmark this page for additional updates.

franknez.com

Welcome to Franknez.com – the blog where you can digest content on personal finance, side hustle ideas, entrepreneurship, and trending investing topics.

Lets get started!

AMC is about to start climbing again. What is going on with the NSCC essentially cleans the slate for retail investors. The AMC community will now be able to drive AMC’s share price without illegal tactics in the stock market.

 

All the opposition that prevented AMC Entertainment stock from reaching $100 per share is no longer able to drive the stock down. The momentum that retail investors create moving forward will result in higher and quicker upswings in AMC stock.

 
 
 
 

Breaking away from $30-$40 range

This could very well be the last straw for hedge funds and short sellers. There’s nothing after plan z except to close their positions because things just got a whole lot tougher for them.

All retail investors need to gamma squeeze AMC at this moment is to bulk up on the stock. While the AMC community has already been doing this, short sellers only increased their dark pool trading usage.

This illegal backdoor has allowed hedge funds to heavily short AMC stock through a rinse and repeat process retail investors have no control over. Well, the NSCC is stepping in to take accountability for every transaction being made in the market.

The NSCC will act as a third party to oversee transactions between lenders to stabilize the stock market. This means the markets will not be as volatile. And this is all possible due to proposal NSCC-2021-010. But more on that in a moment.

Time to play offense

Right now is the time retail investors will have to go on the offense if they are to drive AMC’s stock price back up. By drive AMC stock up, short sellers are negative millions of dollars on paper.

Charles Schwab have already raised margin requirements for both AMC and GME stock. JP Morgan on the other hand is implementing intraday margin calls up to 7 times per day to ensure short sellers have enough cash at hand to cover their positions.

This puts short sellers in the most extreme condition they’ve ever been. That’s because the more money they lose on paper means the more money they’re being expected to fund their margin accounts with.

 

Before, they were able to short the stock down to avoid immediate liquidation. Now, proposal NSCC-2021-010 prohibits short sellers from creating failure-to-delivers as well as naked shorting!

NSCC-2021-010 Source – NSCC-2021-010 Naked Shorts / Failures to deliver (page 4.)

This means they can no longer short AMC stock in extreme measures using naked shorting like they have been. The FTDs? All call options in the money should now be properly executed which will result in gamma squeezes that will drive up AMC stock up; breaking the $30-$40 range.

If you bought in during AMC’s climb, you’re about to break even real soon. And once you do, you’re going to begin seeing profits on paper shortly after.

The NSCC is going to watch every transaction

The NSCC just took away the enemies weapons and now it’s time for retail investors to charge. Hedge funds have been stripped from their power to manipulate AMC through naked shorting and FTDs.

Short sellers know cannot take another round of momentum. This momentum could cause immediate liquidation by brokers if margin accounts fall short of requirements.

The NSCC requires collateral

NSCC-2021-010 Market Regulators Preventing Naked Shorting and FTDs

 

If that wasn’t enough, the NSCC-2021-010 also requires that lenders have the collateral at hand when trading stock. So now hedge funds have JP Morgan, Charles Schwab, and the NSCC requiring them to keep an insane amount of cash at hand for once they get squeezed out of their positions.

NSCC cash collateral AMC NSCC Cash Collateral – Source, page 11

The NSCC is essentially going to make sure everyone’s money is there before positions begin to get liquidated. This cash collateral is going to prohibit short sellers from overleveraging their positions.

You take out overleveraging and you take out the excessive manipulation. From this perspective, the biggest thing hedge funds fear the most is extreme volume from the community again.

We’re talking about executives selling their cars, homes, properties, assets, you name it; to keep their margin requirements up. Will it get to this point? Not unless short sellers close their positions now.

Hedge fund scrutiny intensifies

Hedge funds have been under extreme scrutiny recently. Democrats have even begun broadening consequences for hedge funds causing disruption in our economy.

In fact, if the Capital Markets Engagement and Transparency Act passes, hedge funds would be required to publicly disclose their bets against stocks as well as dark pool data.

The SEC just recently cracked down on 27 financial firms for FTDs. And although Citadel was not on that list, the feds are investigating them as well as Robinhood for market manipulation.

There might have been a point where it felt like short sellers had the upper hand in the markets but not anymore. Retail investors now have the SEC, NSCC, and the Feds auditing the financial system.

The AMC community is forcing change. If you’ve ever shared a FrankNez article, a Trey’s Trades video, or shared a Reddit post, you’ve manifested change.

I’ve said many times before. It’s you as an individual within the community that has so much power to make things happen in the real world. The AMC community and the movement will be recorded in financial history.

Millionaires in 2021

About 625k people are becoming millionaires every year. 2021 is going to see hundreds of millions of people become millionaires this year alone. This biggest transfer of wealth is going to be historic.

It will be up to you to learn how to manage it, invest it, and create a better world for future generations. The torch is being passed down to us so be patient.

If you found this article to be of value I only ask that you please share it and help other apes in the community get a grasp on this amazing news. I’m going to continue to cover AMC as this incredible chapter unfolds, inevitably coming to a close.

If you haven’t gotten a chance to explore the blog be sure to do so. I’ve been producing content on long term stocks and crypto for diversification.

Here’s a personal invitation to my Discord group, AMC with Franknez.com. I created this safe environment for retail investors to discuss AMC stock, share memes, and stay updated daily.

Feel free to comment below and don’t forget to follow me on social media to be notified when a new blog post is published.


 

 

Here is what I was referring to @txwWrestling  . Looks like it goes into effect after hours on Monday and is Implemented on Tuesday Morning,

 

  Hope that helps.

 

   pp

 

   pp

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