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Age of OIL is ending !!!


rockfl9
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Getting back to the topic.  It is projected that plug-in hybrids or full electrics will be shipping in signicant numbers starting 2025.  If you reason that the first adopters will be people with long DAILY commutes , That should save a lot of gas year around.  If oil prices rise more will switch. 

Any country heavily dependent on crude sales will be in trouble. The  Saudis , UAE and Quatar are using their current wealth to develop alternate sources of income for the future .  They KNOW it will take a few years.

Kazimi knows this but He doesnt have the answer yet. They are quickly running out of money to do anything.

After 2025 oil in the ground will become less and less valuable.

 

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On 4/17/2021 at 12:43 PM, rockfl9 said:

Getting back to the topic.  It is projected that plug-in hybrids or full electrics will be shipping in signicant numbers starting 2025.  If you reason that the first adopters will be people with long DAILY commutes , That should save a lot of gas year around.  If oil prices rise more will switch. 

Any country heavily dependent on crude sales will be in trouble. The  Saudis , UAE and Quatar are using their current wealth to develop alternate sources of income for the future .  They KNOW it will take a few years.

Kazimi knows this but He doesnt have the answer yet. They are quickly running out of money to do anything.

After 2025 oil in the ground will become less and less valuable.

 

And so this is the beginning of WWIII

time to go to Vegas

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On 4/15/2021 at 11:19 AM, rockfl9 said:

 

I use Mastrack to track all my company vehicles.  It gives me a full map of all driven miles for IRS purposes.

Its easy and once these tracking devices are installed as by manufactures governments will easily be able to track your miles to tax you based on usage of state roads.     It also tells me speed and harsh braking .  

 

I pay for electricity on a tiered basis. I always hit the highest tier and it is 17 cents a KWH.  

Those smart meters can also provide a demand rate .  Its coming to your neighborhood soon enough.

 

Solar does not pencil out for me. I use most of my power after the sun goes down. I live by the beach and only use AC a few times a year. My utility company SCE only pays you generation charges which is pennies.  And there is no guarentee that they will always buy your excess back from you.  Once they have enough solar plants built to meet state mandates they will not buy your excess.

 

Most homeowners don't have a clue about their electrical systems. Heck most kids these days cant change a tire on their car.  

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The pandemic has delayed things a little, but EVs will be in full production in 2023. Tesla , with 4 plants expects to do 2.5 Mil units. All together 5 Mil. Rumor is that GM will intro a new brand. 

Easy to think that oil demand will decline.  That means a lower price.

The Arabs know this and are developing alternate source es of income today well knowing that will take 3-5 years.

The Iraqi's are sitting on their thumbs, looking for foreign investors to give them the solution. 

 

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17 hours ago, Sage449 said:

Question - where is the energy coming from to "fuel" electric cars? No coal, no gas, no oil- then what? Please don't tell me wind and solar are going to make it. Just ask TX after the last big storm. 

It will come from natural gas now but wind and solar, with storage soon!. Texas big problem is that they do not connected to the US grid AND the systems within the state are not coordinated. It was a domino effect.

my state (Fla) shut down it's last oil generating plant 2 years ago ! We have six nuclear and one in moth balls till it is needed. We are 12% solar and 1% wind now  . hope to be 20% solar in a few years . We are connected to both the Eastern and Mid-western grids and export some power in the winter months.

.Note that Biden's Infrastructure plan has budgets for Grid improvements AND car charging stations. We (the US) have plenty of space for wind and solar but they must be interconnected efficiently.  

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2 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

It will come from natural gas now but wind and solar, with storage soon!. Texas big problem is that they do not connected to the US grid AND the systems within the state are not coordinated. It was a domino effect.

my state (Fla) shut down it's last oil generating plant 2 years ago ! We have six nuclear and one in moth balls till it is needed. We are 12% solar and 1% wind now  . hope to be 20% solar in a few years . We are connected to both the Eastern and Mid-western grids and export some power in the winter months.

.Note that Biden's Infrastructure plan has budgets for Grid improvements AND car charging stations. We (the US) have plenty of space for wind and solar but they must be interconnected efficiently.  

For years we were told ( and did ) to tread lightly when riding in the deserts of CA.  Low and behold they have razed hundreds of square miles of desert for solar farms. The hypocrisy is mind boggling. What? no endangered tortoises in these areas.? Typical crud from the leftists. What a joke.

 

And whos gonna pay for this infrastructure bill

BTW you show your true colors when you say "THE ARABS  know this"  I guess you think all Middle Easterners are Arabs.

 

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I would have liked to read that reply, Sage. There will always be the need for oil products the question is how much for how long? The answer to that question depends on who you want to believe. The world IS getting serious about reduceing carbon and global warming . 

The Saudi's are planning to sell off another 10% of their oil business for money to develop future income. Planning ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

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On 4/29/2021 at 5:09 PM, SocalDinar said:

For years we were told ( and did ) to tread lightly when riding in the deserts of CA.  Low and behold they have razed hundreds of square miles of desert for solar farms. The hypocrisy is mind boggling. What? no endangered tortoises in these areas.? Typical crud from the leftists. What a joke.

 

And whos gonna pay for this infrastructure bill

BTW you show your true colors when you say "THE ARABS  know this"  I guess you think all Middle Easterners are Arabs.

 

You can be assured that the wildlife is protected when putting in something like a solar farm. Certain species like your tortoise would be relocated or given a preserve .

When I said Arabs I should have said ME oil producers.  They need to find new sources of income as oil use declines.   

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45 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

You can be assured that the wildlife is protected when putting in something like a solar farm. Certain species like your tortoise would be relocated or given a preserve .

When I said Arabs I should have said ME oil producers.  They need to find new sources of income as oil use declines.   

HAHA

Ignorance is bliss. They put special concrete boxes for the tortoises to use as shelters. But the crows are too smart. They pick away at their young.  Mankind can screw up a nocturnal emission

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On 5/9/2021 at 11:26 AM, rockfl9 said:

You can be assured that the wildlife is protected when putting in something like a solar farm. Certain species like your tortoise would be relocated or given a preserve .

When I said Arabs I should have said ME oil producers.  They need to find new sources of income as oil use declines.   

The tortoise is collateral damage in the Mojave Desert

Large solar arrays can harm threatened species.

Peter Laufer OPINIONMarch 19, 2014

 

Which should come first: protecting the threatened desert tortoise or creating expensive electricity for an already overpopulated California?

The Obama administration and global players in the solar power industry have chosen electricity, and in order to so they are defiling the Mojave Desert with a massive project that turns the sun’s rays into juice for air conditioners in Los Angeles.

In February, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz flipped the on-switch at what’s now the largest solar farm in the world, the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System.  “This project speaks for itself,” said Secretary Moniz as he dedicated the facility.  “Just look at the 170,000 shining heliostat mirrors and the three towers that would dwarf the Statue of Liberty.”

I have looked at those mirrors and towers while conducting research for the Turtle Conservancy.  Like gigantic watchtowers, the supports for the boilers loom some 40 stories over the desert, looking out over the sprawling lake of reflecting mirrors.  For those of us who treasure the desert as wild and seemingly limitless, the effect is much like transplanting crowded refineries from New Jersey to the Mojave.

The numbers cited by the Ivanpah plant operator are impressive.  All those mirrors are spread across 5 square miles at the California-Nevada border alongside the freeway that connects Las Vegas with Los Angeles.  The mirrors focus the sun’s rays on boilers in the 460-foot-tall towers, heating water to 1,200 degrees Fahrenheit in order to create the steam needed to spin turbines that can generate enough electricity for 140,000 homes.

There are numbers, however, that the Google-backed, $2.2 billion developer, BrightSource, does not like to brag about. That includes the high price of the electricity Ivanpah sells to the grid and the several score desert tortoises that have been its victims, despite over $50 million spent to relocate the animals.  Add to that a $1.6 billion-dollar federal loan guarantee for BrightSource, plus the priceless loan of publicly owned land for the project.

At first blush, electricity from the sun and a threatened species seem like green allies. But the Ivanpah project encroaches on land that the desert tortoise has called home for millennia.  The official reptile of both Nevada and California, Gopherus agassizii, is a survivor.  It lives as long as humans do and weathers the triple-digit Mojave summers by burrowing deep in the desert sand.  But it’s no match for encroaching development. Military exercises, dune buggies, grazing livestock and now solar farms devastate the tortoise’s fragile habitat, killing the grasses and cacti it eats.  Since 1950, the species’ population has collapsed by some 90 percent.

“Translocation is a terrible idea,” one of the biologists hired to try to save tortoises at the construction site told me, requesting anonymity because unauthorized contact with journalists violates BrightSource’s rules for the scientists it employs.

“Everybody knows that translocation doesn’t work.  When you’re walking in front of a bulldozer, crying, and moving animals and cacti out of the way, it’s hard to think that the project is a good idea.”

It’s not just tortoises dying.  During tests of the power plant before last week’s official opening, dead and injured birds with scorched feathers were found at the site. Bird biologists think the animals were burned while trying to fly through the intense heat directed at the towers. Biologists believe that the dead birds mistook mirrors at Ivanpah and other solar-power sites for bodies of water.

Although it’s too late for the desert tortoises that once lived at the Ivanpah site, economics and technology could save their cousins.  Huge, expensive and complex solar-powered electric generating stations like Ivanpah look less appealing as rooftop solar collectors become more cost-effective.  Nevertheless, other Ivanpah-size power plants are already under construction or on the drawing boards, though they are sited far from where electricity is needed.

These large solar arrays need to be scrapped.  It’s time to stop wrecking the wilderness with government-supported waste when the sun can be harnessed efficiently right from the tops of the buildings where we use the electricity.

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And Lets not forget about the thousands of Joshua trees being destroyed HAHAHA

 

Unreliable solar and wind farms are not the answer. Both have substantial carbon footprints.  Natural gas is also produces carbon.  Our best option is nuclear power plants which you and I bot know wont happen 

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SD.  Tks for the article. I did not know this plant existed. I remember during the mid-60s a model project of this technology was proposed in the Arizona desert.  A lot of planning but it never came to be.  Too expensive to be able to provide power for 10 hours on the best of days AND the harsh desert environment would be a "maintenance Godzilla".  

It seems that his is one of those projects that once started  became too big to fail. But maybe we have learned we shouldn't do it again. One thing is this plant will keep an army of technicians employed 

No doubt we will need more clean electricity . Wind , solar , nuclear and conventional generators need to be coordinated to make the best use of all.

P.S.  The city of Oakland  Park, Fl. is working on an ordinance that will require all new muli-residential and mixed use commercial to pre-wire parking slots for EV charging stations. 

 

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The EU Environmental Commission rejected Shell Oil's proposal to STOP production of fossil fuels by 2050 as "not aggressive " enough,

Ford announced today that they will go "Full Electric "  , there will not be any gas engine models in plan after 2025!

That matches GM's plan to be total electric by 2030. 

The US has not proposed any stop date for fossil fuel production , but if these directives are followed gasoline demand will automatically decline without the need for hard rules.

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So most of the oil reserves will remain in the ground , NEVER to be sold!!!!!

So the future of any country that relies on oil revenues is bleak after 2025. 

SA , the UAE and Bahrain are moving to alternate sources of income . They know these changes take time and they must prepare now! Fortunately these countries are guided by rulers that can force the populace to go in the necessary direction .  The necessary skill sets need to be developing in short order.

 Iraq is not even thinking of reducing the dependence on oil income. While it is not very good today its economy is headed for a dead end in 5 years. 

They are headed for an election that will need to manage the country over the next 4 years, .But as I see it the new parlement and PM will most likely "kick the can" .

 

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On 5/26/2021 at 10:47 AM, rockfl9 said:

The EU Environmental Commission rejected Shell Oil's proposal to STOP production of fossil fuels by 2050 as "not aggressive " enough,

Ford announced today that they will go "Full Electric "  , there will not be any gas engine models in plan after 2025!

That matches GM's plan to be total electric by 2030. 

The US has not proposed any stop date for fossil fuel production , but if these directives are followed gasoline demand will automatically decline without the need for hard rules.

All this feel good crud is not going to save us.. So their F-150 with the larger battery gets 300 miles per charge. Thats an empty 1/2 ton pickup truck driving on a flat track. My tools and materials easily weigh 1000 lbs +  So I guess the smart thing for me  to do if I buy one of these is to install a gas generator on the back so I can charge on the go.

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Where do they think the electricity is going to come from to charge all those electric cars.  Even if the cars are electric, right now most of our electricity still comes from fossil fuels.  Electric cars are going to put more demand on the electricity grid.  CA is already asking people to leave their electric cars at home to conserve electricity.  SocalDinar, please take a pic of that truck with the GAS generator in the back when you get it.  That will be funny right there.

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A generating station regardless of the fuel used is a lot more efficient and cleaner .  

Electric wont replace all .  There will always be a need for work vehicles powered by oil.  

It may take a while for the power companies to adjust but I have faith that the power will be there.

actually it is easier to construct a power station than it is to build a refinery.

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19 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

A generating station regardless of the fuel used is a lot more efficient and cleaner .  

Electric wont replace all .  There will always be a need for work vehicles powered by oil.  

It may take a while for the power companies to adjust but I have faith that the power will be there.

actually it is easier to construct a power station than it is to build a refinery.

In CA we have shutdown many refineries and power plants over the years.

The sad truth is its not just the age of oil that is coming to an end.  Its our way of life. 

It will be ugly. Its nor going to end well. We are not going to solve this with technology.

Nothing short of a mass die off of the human species will stop this. The glass is not half full.

 

And the younger generations yelling the loudest are not willing to stop eating heated food. They heat their homes in the winter and turn on the AC in the summer. . They still takes trips of leisure. They do not want to give up their cars. Electric vehicles still require energy and lots of resources. They are addicted to energy including electricity

 

All this talk of equity these days.  I can afford an electric vehicle. I wonder what the poor will do. 

They better invest in some good walking shoes

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On 7/10/2021 at 10:16 AM, SocalDinar said:

 

I had similar thoughts about younger generations 25 years ago.  my fear was they would crash and burn and take me with them. Alas they are still here and there are more of them.

The good life spoiled them.  No stress , easy credit  ,   Covid 19 would have been a good test but the government  stepped in  and solved all the problems for them. 

 

EVs seem expensive today because they fit in the luxury class ( or almost) with a lot of "extras" as standard . Batteries and drive motors are high on the learning curve.  When they figure out how to make them economically the price will come down . then when the market matures some one will build the electric model T.

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The Salton Sea is one of numerous new mining proposals in a global gold rush to find new sources of metals and minerals needed for electric cars and renewable energy.
The Salton Sea is one of numerous new mining proposals in a global gold rush to find new sources of metals and minerals needed for electric cars and renewable energy.

 

 

 

The Salton Sea is one of numerous new mining proposals in a global gold rush to find new sources of metals and minerals needed for electric cars and renewable energy.Credit...

 

By Ivan Penn and Eric Lipton

Photographs by Gabriella Angotti-Jones

  • May 6, 2021

Atop a long-dormant volcano in northern Nevada, workers are preparing to start blasting and digging out a giant pit that will serve as the first new large-scale lithium mine in the United States in more than a decade — a new domestic supply of an essential ingredient in electric car batteries and renewable energy.

The mine, constructed on leased federal lands, could help address the near total reliance by the United States on foreign sources of lithium.

But the project, known as Lithium Americas, has drawn protests from members of a Native American tribe, ranchers and environmental groups because it is expected to use billions of gallons of precious ground water, potentially contaminating some of it for 300 years, while leaving behind a giant mound of waste.

“Blowing up a mountain isn’t green, no matter how much marketing spin people put on it,” said Max Wilbert, who has been living in a tent on the proposed mine site while two lawsuits seeking to block the project wend their way through federal courts.The fight over the Nevada mine is emblematic of a fundamental tension surfacing around the world: Electric cars and renewable energy may not be as green as they appear. Production of raw materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel that are essential to these technologies are often ruinous to land, water, wildlife and people.

That environmental toll has often been overlooked in part because there is a race underway among the United States, China, Europe and other major powers. Echoing past contests and wars over gold and oil, governments are fighting for supremacy over minerals that could help countries achieve economic and technological dominance for decades to come.

Developers and lawmakers see this Nevada project, given final approval in the last days of the Trump administration, as part of the opportunity for the United States to become a leader in producing some of these raw materials as President Biden moves aggressively to fight climate change. In addition to Nevada, businesses have proposed lithium production sites in California, Oregon, Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina.

But traditional mining is one of the dirtiest businesses out there. That reality is not lost on automakers and renewable-energy businesses.

“Our new clean-energy demands could be creating greater harm, even though its intention is to do good,” said Aimee Boulanger, executive director for the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, a group that vets mines for companies like BMW and Ford Motor. “We can’t allow that to happen.”

 

This friction helps explain why a contest of sorts has emerged in recent months across the United States about how best to extract and produce the large amounts of lithium in ways that are much less destructive than how mining has been done for decades.

Just in the first three months of 2021, U.S. lithium miners like those in Nevada raised nearly $3.5 billion from Wall Street — seven times the amount raised in the prior 36 months, according to data assembled by Bloomberg, and a hint of the frenzy underway.

Some of those investors are backing alternatives including a plan to extract lithium from briny water beneath California’s largest lake, the Salton Sea, about 600 miles south of the Lithium Americas site.

At the Salton Sea, investors plan to use specially coated beads to extract lithium salt from the hot liquid pumped up from an aquifer more than 4,000 feet below the surface. The self-contained systems will be connected to geothermal power plants generating emission-free electricity. And in the process, they hope to generate the revenue needed to restore the lake, which has been fouled by toxic runoff from area farms for decades.

Businesses are also hoping to extract lithium from brine in Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota and at least one more location in the United States.

 
Daily business updates  The latest coverage of business, markets and the economy, sent by email each weekday. Get it.

 

The United States needs to quickly find new supplies of lithium as automakers ramp up manufacturing of electric vehicles. Lithium is used in electric car batteries because it is lightweight, can store lots of energy and can be repeatedly recharged. Analysts estimate that lithium demand is going to increase tenfold before the end of this decade as Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors and other automakers introduce dozens of electric models. Other ingredients like cobalt are needed to keep the battery stable.

Even though the United States has some of the world’s largest reserves, the country today has only one large-scale lithium mine, Silver Peak in Nevada, which first opened in the 1960s and is producing just 5,000 tons a year — less than 2 percent of the world’s annual supply. Most of the raw lithium used domestically comes from Latin America or Australia, and most of it is processed and turned into battery cells in China and other Asian countries.

“China just put out its next five-year plan,” Mr. Biden’s energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, said in a recent interview. “They want to be the go-to place for the guts of the batteries, yet we have these minerals in the United States. We have not taken advantage of them, to mine them.”

In March, she announced grants to increase production of crucial minerals. “This is a race to the future that America is going to win,” she said.

So far, the Biden administration has not moved to help push more environmentally friendly options — like lithium brine extraction, instead of open pit mines. The Interior Department declined to say whether it would shift its stand on the Lithium Americas permit, which it is defending in court.

Mining companies and related businesses want to accelerate domestic production of lithium and are pressing the administration and key lawmakers to insert a $10 billion grant program into Mr. Biden’s infrastructure bill, arguing that it is a matter of national security.

“Right now, if China decided to cut off the U.S. for a variety of reasons we’re in trouble,” said Ben Steinberg, an Obama administration official turned lobbyist. He was hired in January by Piedmont Lithium, which is working to build an open-pit mine in North Carolina and is one of several companies that have created a trade association for the industry.

Investors are rushing to get permits for new mines and begin production to secure contracts with battery companies and automakers.

Ultimately, federal and state officials will decide which of the two methods — traditional mining or brine extraction — is approved. Both could take hold. Much will depend on how successful environmentalists, tribes and local groups are in blocking projects.

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Re: Lithium America Corp !  I bought some a year ago at under $5. It got up into $20s but fell back. But still not making money.  Average EV needs 150+ pounds of Li per car today. We will need a lot.  Never found in pure form , effective refining is the problem. Another is battery technology. Don't need pure LI a compound high in LI will do. 

The battery technology is still in its infancy, we may not yet have the best . 

I see a great advantage in EVs . 

P.S.  Parts of the omnibus Infrastructure bill in congress include grants for charging stations as well as an EV rebate of up to $12,500.! 

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1 hour ago, rockfl9 said:

Re: Lithium America Corp !  I bought some a year ago at under $5. It got up into $20s but fell back. But still not making money.  Average EV needs 150+ pounds of Li per car today. We will need a lot.  Never found in pure form , effective refining is the problem. Another is battery technology. Don't need pure LI a compound high in LI will do. 

The battery technology is still in its infancy, we may not yet have the best . 

I see a great advantage in EVs . 

P.S.  Parts of the omnibus Infrastructure bill in congress include grants for charging stations as well as an EV rebate of up to $12,500.! 

Well a fast charge takes 45 mins.  Most gas stations along major routes have anywhere from 8-16 pumps.

On Holiday weekends they are pretty busy. I would say most people can fill up at the pump in ten mins. 

They better build 4 times as many charging stations as they have gas stations.

But it would all be in vain anyway.   No stopping this freight train.

The population of the planet will be over 9.7 billion by 2050.

Thats if we can feed that many people. 

Is Lithium renewable? I dont think so.

How come no one complains about the carbon emissions created by Elon's, Bezos and Branson's rockets

 

 

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