Oil announces the transfer of a copy of the oil and gas law to the Council of Ministers for approval

[DinarThug]

LINK

After The Barrel Price Exceeded $ 60 ... An Expert Calls For Reducing The Dollar Exchange Rate

 

 

4th March, 2021

The economic expert, Ihssan Al-Kinani, said that oil prices exceeded 60 dollars per barrel, which necessitates the government to reduce the exchange rate of the dollar and return it to what it was previously.

"The parliament faces a task that must be accomplished before voting on the budget, so that the dollar exchange rate is not specified in the budget so that the Iraqi people will be harmed by it over a whole year," Al-Kinani said in a press statement.

He added, "The overall prices of Iraqi and imported goods, especially foodstuffs, have risen to double due to the government's ill-considered decisions."

And that "there are parties monopolizing food factories inside Iraq were the first to benefit from the high exchange rate of the dollar, and at the same time, they prevent the import of foodstuffs that are less expensive than they put on the market, taking advantage of the clause of protecting the national product."

He explained that "the rise in oil prices to more than $ 60 a barrel requires the government to reduce the exchange rate of the dollar, especially that oil prices cover the actual need for the budget, which will be approved within the limits of $ 45 per barrel, and thus the government will achieve a surplus of more than $ 15 per barrel."

[DinarThug]

LINK

Parliamentary Finance expects the decline of oil again and confirms the rise is not realistic

 

 

 

16:37 - 04/03/2021

 

 

On Thursday, the Parliamentary Finance Committee expected a decrease in oil prices again, indicating that the current prices are not realistic and are expected to decrease at every moment.

A member of the Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, told "the information" that "the reason for the increase in oil is the decrease in Saudi oil exports at a rate of one million barrels of oil, which led to an increase in the price of oil miles."

He added, "This rise is not realistic and real, but rather imaginary, and it is expected that the decline will return at any time of the current year once Saudi Arabia returns its exports."

He explained that "oil is not safe, which requires the Al-Kazemi government to move quickly, take advantage of the rise, take quick reform steps, and not rely on loans at a later time."

[DinarThug]

LINK

For the fourth consecutive day .. a noticeable decline in the central bank’s hard currency sales

 

 

4th March, 2021

The Central Bank of Iraq’s hard currency sales decreased by 9%, to only $ 109 million.

Today, the auction of the Central Bank of Iraq for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies witnessed a decrease in sales by 9.43 percent to reach 109 million and 16 thousand dollars, which the bank covered at a base exchange rate of 1460 dinars per dollar.

And according to the daily bulletin of the currency auction in the Central Bank, that "purchases amounting to 109 million and 16 thousand dollars, went to strengthen the assets abroad in the form of transfers and credits, while the banks did not make any purchase of dollars in cash."

The daily bulletin of the currency auction pointed out that "12 banks have fulfilled requests to enhance assets abroad." The central bank’s sales of hard currency had recorded 120 million 52,218 dollars yesterday, Wednesday. 

[patrick50]

Yes please take quick reforms and RVVV

 

[DinarThug]

22 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

Publishes the text of the Federal Court law

 

 

03/04/2021 18:42:22

 

 

Text of the Federal Court Law in the Iraqi Parliament

Law 

Press here

 

LINK

Head of a parliamentary bloc: political forces stipulated passing the federal law in exchange for the budget

 

 

4th March, 2021

The head of the Parliamentary Arada bloc, Hussein Arab revealed, today, Thursday, that some political forces have set conditions for the passage of the 202nd budget bill.

Arabs said, to Shafaq News, that "there are political forces (he did not name them) that stipulated passing the Federal Court law, in exchange for passing a budget bill in 2021," noting that "the Federal Court law was included in today's session."

And that "today's session did not include the inclusion or addition of the budget law for the vote, but there will be a special session for the 2021 budget, either on Saturday or Sunday, as a maximum, and there is agreement on this matter, and passing it will be according to everyone's agreement."

[DinarThug]

LINK

Parliament announces the end of the legislative season

 

 

3rd March, 2021

The Presidency of the House of Representatives announced, on Wednesday, the end of the first legislative term for the third legislative year.

"The first legislative term for the third legislative year has ended,

and the first session of the second legislative session will be held tomorrow (today), Thursday,"

the presidency said in a statement that Mawazine News received a copy of.

[DinarThug]

10 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

there will be a special session for the 2021 budget, either on Saturday or Sunday,

as a maximum, and there is agreement on this matter,

and passing it will be according to everyone's agreement."

 

LINK

Parliamentary Finance confirms that the budget file has not been resolved due to Kurdistan’s share

 

 

 

3/3/2021 20:41 

 

 

The Parliamentary Finance Committee confirmed, today, Wednesday, that the federal budget for 2021 has not been handed over to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives, while indicating that the share of the Kurdistan region has not been resolved.

Member of the committee, MP Mahasin Hamdoun, said that 

"the 2021 budget has not yet been handed over to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives,

but rather a letter was delivered indicating the completion of the budget", 

 

indicating that "in the event that the Presidency of the Council requests the budget,

the amended version on which various adjustments were made for the purpose of voting will be sent." 

Hamdoun indicated that “the region’s share has not been decided yet,” asserting that “the region has shown its willingness to submit all requests and information and has already done so, but the matter is due to the Shiite blocs that have not yet expressed their position with acceptance or rejection.”

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by DinarThug

[tigergorzow]

10 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

 

LINK

Head of a parliamentary bloc: political forces stipulated passing the federal law in exchange for the budget

 

 

4th March, 2021

The head of the Parliamentary Arada bloc, Hussein Arab revealed, today, Thursday, that some political forces have set conditions for the passage of the 202nd budget bill.

Arabs said, to Shafaq News, that "there are political forces (he did not name them) that stipulated passing the Federal Court law, in exchange for passing a budget bill in 2021," noting that "the Federal Court law was included in today's session."

And that "today's session did not include the inclusion or addition of the budget law for the vote, but there will be a special session for the 2021 budget, either on Saturday or Sunday, as a maximum, and there is agreement on this matter, and passing it will be according to everyone's agreement."

DT Thanks. Why don't you dummies pass the "HCL" as a prerequisite before passing the Budget 2021.  Sounds like a chicken dinner winner winner IMHO....👍👍🙏🙏😁😁.

 

GO HCL

 

GO RV & RI

[DinarThug]

On 3/3/2021 at 11:18 AM, DinarThug said:

A good aspect of the obelisk: the white paper calls for sustainable development and minimizing economic shocks

 

3rd March, 2021 

Advisor to the Prime Minister Mazhar Muhammad Salih said on Wednesday, March 3, 2021 that Iraq is entering the stage of economic recovery after high oil prices and economic reforms.

Saleh told Al-Masalla that Iraq is on the verge of economic recovery because there is a tangible agricultural boom that will achieve a growth in non-oil GDP in 2021 by more than 4%, which is about one and a half times higher than the population growth. Energy in the world is a positive indicator that strengthens the country's public financial capacity.

Saleh calls for laying a foundation for sustainable development and minimizing economic shocks. He pointed out that the international community supporting Iraq through the International Financial Alliance team, which was established months ago, expressed its desire to support system" rel="">support the established principles for the sustainability of growth in the national economy, as expressed in the white paper recently approved by the Council of Ministers by establishing a blueprint and an institutional entity for economic reform, which is the linchpin of this sustainability. Developmental.

He added that the formation of the Supreme Committee for Reform, which will have decisive and fundamental executive decisions to promote productive, investment and operational activity in the public and private sectors, will be supported by a large international presence represented by international multilateral financial institutions and the Group of Seven major industrialized countries.

The Prime Minister’s Adviser for Financial Affairs stated that the government will benefit from the high oil prices in strengthening the country's financial leverage.

Salih said that the breakeven point or balance in the budget requires that the average annual price of a barrel of oil exported abroad be at least 75-80 dollars per barrel, indicating that at that time the deficit gap will be closed completely, and the sources of borrowing to meet the budget deficit are mostly automatically canceled.

He added that the government benefits from the current high oil prices, which have reached more than what was written in the budget, especially with the country heading to closure again, stressing that this will lead to strengthening the country's financial leverage to face the problems of social need.

 

The International Monetary Fund reveals its conditions for granting loans and talks about the Iraqi "white paper"

 

 

Thursday 4 March 2021 - 14:09

 

 

 

 

Baghdad (People) - The International Monetary Fund confirmed, on Wednesday, that the "white paper" offers an explicit assessment of the radical imbalances in the Iraqi economy, stressing that adjusting the exchange rate will reduce imbalances in external accounts and payments as well as the budget deficit.   

 

The head of the International Monetary Fund’s regional office, Ghazi Shbikat, said in an interview with the official agency followed by “Nas” (March 3, 2021), that “Iraq has been a member of the International Monetary Fund since 1945, and similar to what the Fund has been doing with other members, it is conducting with the participation of Iraq an annual monitoring process. For performance under Article 4 of the fund’s founding agreement, which includes conducting a general diagnosis of the state of the Iraqi economy, "noting that he" discusses with Iraq the priorities of the Iraqi authorities' policies in the short and medium term. "  

 

He explained that "Iraq also benefits from the technical assistance and financial support provided by the Fund when it needs them," stressing that, at the present time, there is no existing financial arrangement or agreement with Iraq.  

 

The fund indicated that "the volume of loans granted to Iraq until the beginning of this year amounted to one billion and 180 million dollars," noting that "the fund provided financial support to Iraq, intended to support the economic program on various occasions."  

 

He added, "The aspects of support include the Credit Standards Agreement (SBA) in the years 2007, 2010 and 2016 in addition to providing emergency assistance within the framework of the Rapid Financing Tool (RFI) in 2015," noting that "the volume of existing credits (loans) granted The fund to Iraq, as it is on January 31, 2021, amounted to a total of (825.5) million shares of special drawing rights, equivalent to about one billion and 180 million dollars. "  

 

The fund continued, "The value of the interest rate and the value of the financial arrangement agreement varies from one lending tool to another," noting that "the lending tools are detailed in a way that meets the needs of the country’s balance of payments."  

 

He noted, "The interest rate depends on market rates and that the length of the credit preparedness agreement is flexible, and it usually covers a period ranging between 12 and 24 months, but does not exceed 36 months. As for the lending rate, it usually consists of the interest rate on the SDRs." Which is determined by the market, the profit margin, and the additional fees, all of which depend on the size of the loan amount and the period of time during which the credit (loan) remains in place. "  

 

The Fund affirmed that “the financial support that is provided is support for countries’ economic reform programs, ”explaining that at the beginning, the authorities and experts of the Fund usually agree on the details of the country's economic policies, which should be supported by lending from the Fund, and the disbursement is from the support that It is provided by the fund conditional on the implementation of those policies that aim to reduce the size of macroeconomic imbalances and to enhance its stability, in addition to implementing structural reforms to help the vulnerable (the poor and their equivalents), improve productivity, and encourage a higher level of inclusive (inclusive) growth.  

 

And he indicated that "there is currently no financial arrangement (agreement) with Iraq, and therefore there are no conditions or obligations related to the policies that Iraq is currently implementing," stressing that "the set of conditions stipulated in these arrangements (agreements) are based on the principle of ownership, In that it sets out the reform agenda of the Iraqi authorities themselves, and thus even in the event of entering into a financial agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the Iraqi authorities will assume the primary responsibility for choosing economic policies, designing and implementing them within the framework of the program supported by the Fund. ".  

 

The Fund pointed out that "financial support is provided to meet the needs of the balance of payments of the member countries of the Fund upon their request and unlike what the development banks do. The Fund does not lend to countries for the implementation of specific specific projects and following up on any request for support of this kind." The IMF staff team conducts discussions with the governments of the countries that apply for support from the Fund, with the aim of assessing their economic and financial conditions, in addition to assessing the total financial needs of these countries. This evaluation is used as a basis for discussions and to agree on the appropriate response to the policies required to be implemented to obtain support.  

 

He stressed that his strategy in Iraq is based on this same context, ie, supporting the balance of payments and not projects, whether on the public or private sector, and that this matter is the basis for granting loans.  

 

The Fund stated that "the weaknesses and distortions of the Iraqi economy have been and continue to escalate for several years, and the pandemic (Covid-19) and the sharp decline in oil revenues have exacerbated this weakness and distortion," indicating that "economic activity decreased sharply in the year 2020, reversing the impact of the measures." Inclusion related to the pandemic, the interruption of transport, international travel and international trade, and the reduction of oil production under the additional agreement between oil producing and exporting countries (OPEC + agreement). "  

 

He explained, "It is estimated that the GDP of the real non-oil sector declined by 8 percent in 2020, at a time when oil production was reduced by approximately 13 percent. As a result, it is likely that the total real GDP has decreased." A decline of 11 percent, while weak domestic demand kept the level of inflation low at 1 percent in 2020, "pointing out that," at the same time, the sharp decline in oil revenues has caused major imbalances in the finances. " Public accounts, foreign accounts and payments, and imposing pressure on reserve balances of foreign exchange, which led to a sharp increase in the public debt.  

 

The Fund confirmed that its relationship with Iraq remains strong, "stressing that" the discussions of Article IV, which were held recently, were a good opportunity to consult with the Iraqi authorities during these difficult circumstances that are beset with challenges. "  

 

The fund expressed its support for reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar, stressing the critical importance of having a strong framework for the state's public finances to ensure its credibility, and to meet the need to protect the vulnerable.  

 

And that "adjusting the exchange rate will help reduce the level of imbalances in external accounts and payments, maintain foreign exchange reserves and support the government's efforts to reduce the budget deficit, given that controlling public financial conditions alone would have required a major adjustment first." And it might not have been possible to implement the amendment in practice, politically or socially, and if this major amendment had occurred, it would have weakened the level of critical public services.  

 

He pointed out that "it stresses that a strong fiscal framework will be necessary to reduce the future need for monetary financing for the budget, to maintain the new exchange rate and the importance of protecting the vulnerable from any consequences of the exchange rate reduction on inflation, as well as from any consequences left by the pandemic." Social safety net allocations in the 2021 budget, which the government submitted to Parliament.  

 

The fund confirmed that "the white paper presents an explicit assessment of the root imbalances in the Iraqi economy," explaining that "this paper presents a frank assessment of the root causes of the current imbalances in the Iraqi macroeconomic, and focuses on a number of factors, including the sharp increase in wages and salaries of public sector employees, and the exclusion of The activities of the private sector on the economy and the weakness of financial institutions, "expressing his welcome to the medium-term reform plans, at the level of public finances and the structural level, which were detailed in that paper."  

 

He added, "The role that the white paper will play will depend on caution in calculating costs, prioritization, and rapid implementation of these reforms, while working, at the same time, to reduce their impact on the vulnerable."  

 

He pointed out that "the Central Bank of Iraq can support small and medium enterprises through loans through commercial banks," noting that "housing and small and medium-sized enterprises are two important sectors in the economy."  

 

He noted that "the Central Bank of Iraq can provide support to these two sectors, and to other sectors of the other, by maintaining macroeconomic stability, ensuring adequate financial conditions, and providing the possibility for all sectors to obtain financing," stressing that "direct lending activities must take place." Through commercial banks. "  

LINK

[DinarThug]

59 minutes ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

Isn't article 12 a contradiction???

 

 

 

 

 

     

[boosterbglee]

Which one is Shabs?😂

[wealthhound]

1 hour ago, DinarThug said:

 

LINK

Head of a parliamentary bloc: political forces stipulated passing the federal law in exchange for the budget

 

 

4th March, 2021

The head of the Parliamentary Arada bloc, Hussein Arab revealed, today, Thursday, that some political forces have set conditions for the passage of the 202nd budget bill.

Arabs said, to Shafaq News, that "there are political forces (he did not name them) that stipulated passing the Federal Court law, in exchange for passing a budget bill in 2021," noting that "the Federal Court law was included in today's session."

And that "today's session did not include the inclusion or addition of the budget law for the vote, but there will be a special session for the 2021 budget, either on Saturday or Sunday, as a maximum, and there is agreement on this matter, and passing it will be according to everyone's agreement."

Now follow thru people !

[screwball]

On 3/4/2021 at 5:18 AM, DinarThug said:

Iraq is on the verge of economic recovery

Verge must be same soon 

[screwball]

the strength of the economy from the strength of the dinar and any decisions made in an ill-consideredmanner will have grave harm to millions of Iraqis." 

[screwball]

The parliament faces a task that must be accomplished before voting on the budget, so that the dollar exchange rate is not specified in the budget so that the Iraqi people will be harmed by it over a whole year,"

[DinarThug]

LINK

Is the danger close to the Iraqi dinar?

 

 

 

21:53 - 04/03/2021 Books / Fadel Hussein Al-Khafaji

 

 

The Iraqi dinar today ... is its political _ security status. In a position between the two houses, and at this stage, and upon returning to the history of the dinar, the forecast stock exchange in Baghdad returned with it the speculations between overly pessimistic and optimistic concerns.

Pessimism and optimism are not new to the Iraqi dinar .. We all remember the nineties of the last century and the blockade that made the US dollar equivalent to nearly 3000 Iraqi dinars and the consequences that generally followed. However, the hopes that the Iraqis have on the government’s program have made expectations between pessimism and optimism the political background and its contradictory analyzes.

The people of pessimism focus on the fact that the government exaggerated the exchange rate of the US dollar at the equivalent of 1450 Iraqi dinars, while its price before that was equivalent to about 1190 dinars, and through this the clear difference between them becomes clear. This, of course, will be borne by the citizen .. Because the prices of goods imported from abroad and which are presented in the market, it is natural that their prices rise, and the reason is that the import takes place in foreign currencies (the US dollar) and as a result, the citizen is the most affected by this change.

As for the optimistic people (and they are very few) they assert that the main reason for the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar is the drop in global oil prices and its impact on the Iraqi treasury revenues, which depend on the Iraqi budget of oil imports by more than 95% .

The optimism of the optimists and the pessimism of the pessimists are not without their effect on the citizen ... However, between optimism and pessimism are facts that must be recorded in any analysis.

Conclusion .. any price is for the Iraqi dinar .. the banking, economic and popular circles ... and despite the fact that the current monetary and financial data outweigh the pessimists ... the old price of the improvement of 1190 dinars is against the US dollar.

And the (price) of the country and the citizen remains the most expensive.

[DinarThug]

LINK

Iraq: International Institutions and Strengthening Financial Supervision

 

5th March, 2021

 

The World Bank and the European Union provided $ 12.5 million to Iraq as a grant to strengthen the institutions of oversight and accountability in public financial management, and the Iraqi government signed an agreement in this regard with the two institutions in late January 2021, and the grant comes within the framework of an extended program with the European Union since 2018. The agreement is also prepared. Complementing another program implemented by the World Bank in Iraq, with a value of $ 41.5 million, called "Modernization of Public Financial Management Systems", which aims to improve financial information management and transparency, cash management, public investment management, and the modernization of public procurement. But by reviewing the goals of the January 2021 agreement, we found that it aims to strengthen payroll management through an information technology platform, support accountability and transparency in the oil sector, and strengthen the fight against corruption in order to recover stolen assets.Supporting the reform of public companies and promoting integrity in reconstruction programs

These goals reflect the state of rampant corruption in Iraq, so there is no public matter that does not lead to corruption, and the institutions of the World Bank and the European Union would not provide their technical support, which costs them these funds, except after identifying the corruption sites in the administration of the Iraqi state. The payroll in public institutions may include people who do not work, or work within the framework of what is known as underemployment, or receive salaries from more than one party, or receive salaries that are not subject to standards of qualifications and experience, and the jobs in government institutions, the rest of the political institutions of society and others, in terms of quotas, which is harmful to the national economy, and the result was that the oil country, which has lived through long years, has decent livelihoods, is suffering from high rates of poverty, and a lack of resources in light of the Coronavirus pandemic, due to Corruption

There is no doubt that the provision of technical grants by international institutions or the European Union is a positive thing, especially for a country like Iraq, which has been suffering from the scourge of wars since 1979, but what does the technical grant mean in a country rife with corruption and the absence of political will to combat corruption. Government is one of the tools of the political sects to manage government, and their presence in power?

It is noticeable through Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index data that Iraq has improved in its ranking among the 180 countries in the world covered by the index. In 2018, Iraq’s ranking was 168, and in 2019 the ranking improved to 162, and in 2020, it came Ranking 160. But this ranking among countries was not accompanied by an improvement in the index scores as required.Iraq still gets low scores on the index ladder. During the period from 2018-2020, Iraq’s scores were (18, 20, and 21), respectively, from Total index scores of 100, which means that programs to enhance financial transparency are achieving very weak results

Iraq needs technical support

Iraq lacks the technical and technological aspects, to implement a system for controlling public expenditures and expenditures, but it does not lack money, through which it can obtain those technological and administrative systems to control work in state institutions, and Iraq has human cadres that can at least manage those systems and training on them, unless designing those technological systems, or at least designing systems close to them

Iraq’s need for technical support may not be limited to fighting corruption and striving to improve public administration institutions, but Iraq needs a technological renaissance that works to strengthen its capabilities in various fields in industry, agriculture, education and health and the support by the states bank and the European Union in a certain area may be useless in light of the prevailing political system in Iraq, and in light of the culture of the ongoing conflict there on a sectarian basis, or in the presence of this regional and international interference in the country's affairs

Grant and aid programs may provide appropriate and even advanced technological systems and devices, but with time, they may be neglected and even deliberately disrupted later, when the duration of the programs for those grants ends, then the system based on maximizing individual and sectarian interests returns to what it was before

Corruption in Iraq is protected by parties and sects, and forces in Parliament do not exercise their oversight roles, and they know that what is practiced inside state institutions is the pinnacle of corruption, but because this represents a benefit to the sect, the party, or some individuals, it does not accept that its files be opened in Parliament. Or to extend the hand of reform to those practices of corruption, or to extend the hand of justice to prosecute those who corrupted within public institutions

There is an important note here, that enhancing transparency in public institutions in Iraq, the World Bank and the European Union paid attention to, and provided grants and assistance for this, while the countries that benefit greatly from the country's political and security unstable situation, and work to be under their full control, did not provide anything Mention in this regard, and by those countries we mean Iran.  What Iran gets annually from legal or illegal trade with Iraq is one of its foreign exchange outlets in light of the economic sanctions imposed on it for years, and the financial returns that Iran receives from exporting gas and electricity to Iraq are huge sums, but it is in Iran's interest. That corruption continues in the corridors of the Iraqi government and within its institutions in order to facilitate the achievement of its political and non-political goals there

What is missing in Iraq?

Iraq lacks many things related to the political and economic situation. It is imperative to get out of the spiral of sectarianism in managing public affairs, and for there to be a new social equation based on presenting people with experience and working according to a democratic system that excludes anyone, and that the distinction between the sons of Iraq does not depend on the basis of belief, gender, or sect, but the deal is based on citizenship, and for the short and medium term to abandon the fact that the state depends on oil as the only source of the national economy, Iraq has many components, and it has a diversified economy, and this was in place before the occupation of America.  Iraq in 2003, although oil was an important resource in that era, but Iraq also has an agricultural sector that can achieve self-sufficiency or semi-self sufficiency, and human resources can change Iraq’s economic direction, whether in terms of industry or absorbing technology

Activating the rule of law is what Iraq needs at the earliest time, to achieve transparency and accountability, whether in public financial management or other activities in the rest of society. The lesson is political and societal will, more than it is to provide legal systems or systems that can be neglected or bypassed. The absence of the rule of law is what enabled corruption at the rates that we referred to before, and also enabled the endemic poverty in Iraq, which is 31% of the population, according to July 2021 data, as the rate increased by 12% in light of Corona

[DinarThug]

LINK

The law calls for the return of the exchange rate and affirms: the government's economic policies "have failed"

 

 

5th March, 2021

 

Today, Friday, the parliamentary law bloc demanded that the dollar exchange rate be restored to its previous level, while it confirmed the failure of the government's economic and financial policies.
 

In a statement received by the Tigris, the bloc said that it “calls on the Presidency of the House of Representatives and the Finance Committee to adopt the previous exchange rate of 119 thousand in the 2021 Budget Law, because of its negative effects that cast a shadow on the life of the simple citizen, with the lack of job opportunities and the absence of any indicators. On the revitalization of the economy by the government."

The bloc emphasized, "With high oil prices and good financial returns, the weakening of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar is no longer justified, especially since the economic recession prevails and the financial and economic policies adopted by the government have not seen any positive effects on the ground. Rather, we witnessed difficulties and problems that caused harm. Citizen and overburdened him."

The parliamentary law called on all members of the House of Representatives to "take a position that does justice to the vulnerable groups and the poor classes in society, and calls on the government to adopt fair and realistic policies instead of aggravating social and economic conditions and burdening the citizen with more hardships and harms."

[DinarThug]

LINK

Market Review: "Market Roars Back to Life"

5th March, 2021

The market, after January's 9.3% sell-off, resumed the rally that was ignited by the 22.6% devaluation of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) against the USD in late December, ending February with a bang!  The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, ended the month up 25.7%, and is up 14.1% for the year.

February saw a resumption of the trends that drove the index's rally of 8.7% (in local currency terms) in the immediate aftermath of the currency's devaluation, in which both daily turnover and foreign buying increased meaningfully month-on-month.

However, the crucial difference this time is that these trends lasted the whole month, and their momentum was sustained throughout.  Average daily turnover, excluding block transactions, increased 189% over the prior month and 145% over the average of the prior 12 months (first chart below). A similar pattern, but less dramatic, was the resumption of foreign buying in both absolute terms and as a percentage of total buying (second chart below).

 

 

 

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), AFC Research, data as of February 25^th)

 

While foreign buying in the leading names in the banking, consumer, and telecom sectors initiated the rally, it was local buying that extended and sustained it throughout the month. In particular, the Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) was up 69.2%, Baghdad Soft Drinks (IBSD) was up 30.7%, and AsiaCell (TASC) was up 24.6% - these three stocks accounted for over 90% of the index's gain and for the bulk of the daily turnover in the market.

Among the banking sector, BBOB's rally was joined by the low-priced Gulf Commercial Bank (BGUC) in which 4 successive increases in the minimum trading increment resulted in a 21.4% increase in BGUC. Other leading banks lagged significantly, such as Mansour Bank (BMNS) which was up 5.3%, the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI), up 2.4%, and the Commercial Bank of Iraq (BCOI), up 2.3%. While IBSD was joined by Al Mansour Pharmaceuticals (IMAP), up 15.2%.

The initial post-devaluation rally in late December and the strong follow-through in February suggests that that the market is primed for a rally following a brutal seven-year bear market - that even after its February gain, the market, as measured by the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, is still down by over 63% from its 2014 high.

The market's narrow breadth notwithstanding, the fact that the gains were made by the leading names in their respective industries is promising for the rally's continuation. For such a continuation to be sustainable, it should unfold over the next few months and come with a broadening of market breadth as other stocks begin to contribute to the market's recovery from its deep downturn. However, this recovery's pace is likely to be uneven with plenty of zigs and zags along the way.

It was argued here, post the currency's devaluation that:

"While the devaluation is an adverse event, the reaction of the equity market and the increased foreign participation indicates that the change is positive for equities. While the missing pieces of Iraq's re-rating are many and will take time to materialize, this positive reaction to the devaluation suggests that the event might start the process of Iraq's re-rating - which from a long-term perspective is positive for the equity market."

One of these missing pieces is the role that oil prices play in the foreign perception of Iraq contributing to foreign fund inflows, and more significantly, the role oil prices play in driving Iraq's economy and thus corporate profits.

Oil prices by the end of February staged a remarkable recovery of over 300% from the depths of the price collapse last April, in which the COVID-19 induced worldwide lockdown magnified an earlier crash in prices brought on by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. This recovery was driven by the reversal of these same forces to hopes of a successful COVID-19 vaccination roll-out, and by extra production cuts over two-month of a further 1 mln barrels a day by Saudi Arabia, bolstering the remarkable cohesion of the OPEC+ agreement to cut oil production by an estimated at 12% of world oil supply last April 2020 - an agreement driven by self-interest and commercial logic just as was argued here last March soon after the initiation of the price war that:

"... while both combatants on paper have the resources to wage the price war, yet the effects of the 2014 price-war on both were profound which led to an unimaginable alliance in the first place. Given that effects of a new price war will be equally profound, it seems logical that political considerations will ensure that such war does not last, and that just as political reasons led to the price war, that subsequent ones will end it."

The availability of more than one effective vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic bolsters the potential for a synchronised developed world economic recovery in the second half of 2021 and into 2022 - a recovery supported by unprecedented worldwide fiscal stimuli to the global economy, as well as continued adherence of OPEC+ to the production cuts - cuts that should last into year-end with a potential extension into 2022. This combination would argue for Brent crude prices to average in the range of USD 50-60 per barrel in 2021, and a range of USD 60-70 per barrel in 2021 - a case more promising than, but which nevertheless builds on the case made here in April 2020 that:-

"The known nature of the virus precludes a return to full normalcy when global lockdowns are expected to ease from mid-summer onwards. Combined with the unknown nature of the new normal as the world learns to deal with and ultimately contain the virus, the return to a pre-virus oil demand picture is unlikely within the next 12 months. But, in six to nine months demand for oil should recover from the extreme lows of April and trend upwards to a small drop from base-line demand by year end.

However, with a return to some sort of post-lockdown normalcy in early 2021, low oil prices should stimulate demand, and coupled with the massive worldwide fiscal stimuli to the global economy should begin to recover. Following a time-lag, as demand absorbs the stored supply, the supply-demand picture should be tilted in supply's favour, and oil prices will trend higher - likely to a price range of USD 45-55 per barrel for Brent crude."

 

Brent Crude Prices 2016-2021

(USD per barrel)

(Source: Bloomberg, data as of March 1^st, 2021)

 

Such a scenario is extremely positive for Iraq and its equity market given the country's extreme dependence on oil revenues, which historically constituted over 90% of government revenues. Given the dominance of the economy by the state - as the largest formal employer, and through its direct and indirect control of the largest economic activities - means that higher oil revenues will feed into increased consumer spending and to a revival in said economic activities.

Such a revival will sustain the recovery in economic activities that have returned to levels meaningfully above those that prevailed just before the nationwide lockdown last March, as seen from Google mobility data (below chart). In particular, activities in the crucial sectors of retail and grocery have recovered to between 20-60% above the levels that prevailed pre-lockdown. The sharp decline at the end of February is due to the new rolling lockdowns from Friday's to Sunday's, cutting the workweek to four days, in response to the emergence of a potential new wave of the pandemic.

Baseline is the median, for the corresponding day of the week, during January 3^rd - February 6^th 2020, Source: Google, data as of February 21^st)

[Pitcher]

Get out of the way.  Iraq  is ready to change.  ALL ABOARD 

 

NOTHING CAN STOP THIS RUNAWAY RV TRAIN.  NOTHING.

 

 

 

 

 

Well, this is Iraq we’re talking about so,................

 

 

[Pitcher]

Thanks for all the articles Thugs.  

[DinarThug]

LINK

Kurdish mp: residents of the region are wondering about the fate of 50 billion dollars in oil revenues

5th March, 2021

The MP for the Hope Coalition, Ghaleb Muhammad, said today, Friday, that there are 50 billion dollars in oil imports sold by the Kurdistan Regional Government, about which the residents of the region do not know anything.

MP Muhammad said, in a televised interview followed by Al-Ahed News, that "the Kurdistan Regional Government announces from time to time that it owes 27 billion dollars, and when inquiries are made about the origin of these debts, they do not give any answer." The government has these sums by a decision of who and for whom. He added, "The Kurdistan Regional Government has about 50 billion dollars in exported oil revenues, from 2007 to 2020, which during this period sold more than one billion and 200 million barrels of oil." He continued, "It also received sums estimated at 11 billion dollars, from all the companies that have concluded contracts with them."

And he added, "All these numbers and sums, and the Erbil government is unable to pay the salaries of Kurdish employees, and the people of the Kurdistan region are wondering about the fate of the huge money that the regional government made from selling it oil and where it went and who caused them all this suffering despite the billions that they have committed."

A book issued by the Office of the Minister of Finance, Abdul Amir Allawi, stated that the Kurdistan region had not sent a statement of the size of its revenues for 6 years.  The book issued by the Finance Minister’s office bearing his signature stated that the Kurdistan region did not deliver to Baghdad a statement of its revenues from 2014 until 2020. Among the book itself, which came in response to another book sent by a member of Parliament to the Ministry of Finance, Baghdad has not received any Revenues from Kurdistan for the quantities of oil exported from the Kurdistan region.

[GreedyDinar07]

All of this talk of the exchange rate at 1450 then going back to 1190 (If that is what they are referring to) is just insanity. At the end of the day it is your Country and currency so do something good with it. They have been talking for 18 years and people have heard it all. The POPE is visiting, the talk about passing the budget and HCL EVERYDAY, hell just RV the damn currency and get on with! If they move the exchange rate back to 1190, what in the hell will that accomplish? They will be back where they started and will the corruption in the currency auctions start again? I don't give a damn about a rate at 1190!! Give the people purchasing power go international or else everything you are doing right now will be in vain!! Geessh!!!

 

 

[DinarThug]

LINK

Barzani calls on the people of the region to "close ranks and defend their constitutional rights"

 

 

 

3/2021/05 09:37:26

 

 

Today, Friday, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, issued a statement on the 30th anniversary of the start of the March uprising in 1991.

 

Barzani said in the text of his statement: "On the occasion of the thirtieth anniversary of the glorious March uprising in 1991 of the people of Kurdistan, I extend my warmest congratulations to the people of Kurdistan, especially the brave Peshmerga and the families of the high martyrs." He added, "The March uprising in 1991 was one of the great achievements and pride of the people of Kurdistan, and the product of the unity and solidarity of all components of the people of Kurdistan, side by side with the Kurdish forces and parties, to reject oppression, occupation and subservience."

He pointed out that "the March uprising was a historic milestone for the revolution and struggle of the liberation movement of the people of Kurdistan, and it resulted in the establishment of a federal entity for the Kurdistan region and its constitutional institutions, which makes everyone and all parties and components in Kurdistan close their ranks and defend with one voice the national achievements and the constitutional rights of the people of Kurdistan." It is imperative to preserve the noble values of the March uprising and to consolidate the principles of peaceful coexistence, tolerance, peace and humanity for the people of Kurdistan.

He continued, "Let the memory of the uprising be another incentive to support the Kurdistan Regional Government, so that it can fully and fully implement its reform program, and provide more decent services to all the people of Kurdistan, so that we can pass together in the Kurdistan region to a more prosperous stage."

[wildeman]

Thanks Thuggy 🤙🙏