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Another Junk Currency, the Iraqi Dinar, Bites the Dust


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I saw this article this morning.....all I could thinknyo say was LOL.

 

 

Another Junk Currency, the Iraqi Dinar, Bites the Dust
By STEVE H. HANKE
December 22, 2020 4:36 PM

 

Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Mustafa al-Kadhimi delivers a speech during the vote on the new government at the parliament headquarters in Baghdad, May 7, 2020. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

On October 15, 2003, Iraq began to distribute new dinar bills, graced with the likeness of an ancient Babylonian ruler and a tenth-century mathematician. By January 15, 2004, new dinars replaced the two types of notes that were in circulation. Old Saddam dinars were swapped for new dinars at a one-to-one rate, and each so-called “Swiss” dinar fetched 150 new dinars. Bank accounts and contracts were converted at the same rates, and Iraqi salaries began to be paid in crisp new notes. The new currency became convertible into foreign currencies at market rates.

Iraq’s currency swap was heralded with great fanfare in Baghdad and Washington. As President George W. Bush put it: “The new currency symbolizes Iraq’s reviving economy.”

Not so fast. Iraq has lacked law and order, let alone the rule of law. Without these, we should never have expected the new notes to ignite an Iraqi Wirtschaftswunder. They most certainly have not.

Indeed, the neoconservative Paul Wolfowitz, the former Deputy Secretary of Defense and engineer of the Iraq War infamously predicted on March 27, 2003, in front of the U.S House Appropriations Committee that “There’s a lot of money to pay for this . . . the oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years . . . We’re dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.” Anyone who believed in this nonsense must put great faith in the Tooth Fairy.

 



Just look what has happened to Iraq’s junk currency, the Iraqi dinar. On Saturday, the Central Bank of Iraq announced a whopping 20 percent devaluation of the dinar.  So, next week’s “Hanke’s Currency Watchlist,” which is nothing more than a rogues’ gallery of junk currencies, will include the Iraqi dinar:

This brings me back to September 2003, when I recommended that Iraq replace the dinar with the U.S. dollar. If dollarized, Iraq would then have returned to a regime that it used from 1916-31, when the Indian rupee was its legal tender. The adoption of a stable international currency would have avoided the pitfalls of Iraqi central banking and would have immediately provide Iraqis with stable money. And, while stable money might not be everything — without it, everything is nothing.

 

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/another-junk-currency-the-iraqi-dinar-bites-the-dust/

Edited by yota691
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good morning flamtap ,  i saw this news hit also , and  still not seeing iraq dinar in the top 10 ...

 the start to the finish line i can only think,  the double talk , to scare everyone into dumping the dinar .

get the outside of iraq community to dump and  then the Kurdistan region pay their employee departments in dinar , and to use only dinar to pay off the debts in the Kurdistan , with dinar ( working away from  the dollar )...

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Economy News _ Baghdad

The President of the Investment Authority in the Kurdistan Region, Muhammad Shukri, announced, on Wednesday, that the authority is working with housing companies to receive their installments from citizens in dinars instead of dollars.

In a press interview, Muhammad said, "The high price of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar will negatively affect the payment of installments by citizens who have bought apartments in installments from housing companies," noting that "housing companies have been approached in this regard."

He added, "The Commission is currently working to find a mechanism to help citizens pay their premiums to companies in the Iraqi dinar currency instead of the dollar to alleviate the burdens of citizens in these circumstances," noting that "this process is scheduled to begin at the beginning of the new year."

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  • yota691 changed the title to Another Junk Currency, the Iraqi Dinar, Bites the Dust
2 hours ago, jeepguy said:

Economy News _ Baghdad

The President of the Investment Authority in the Kurdistan Region, Muhammad Shukri, announced, on Wednesday, that the authority is working with housing companies to receive their installments from citizens in dinars instead of dollars.

In a press interview, Muhammad said, "The high price of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar will negatively affect the payment of installments by citizens who have bought apartments in installments from housing companies," noting that "housing companies have been approached in this regard."

He added, "The Commission is currently working to find a mechanism to help citizens pay their premiums to companies in the Iraqi dinar currency instead of the dollar to alleviate the burdens of citizens in these circumstances," noting that "this process is scheduled to begin at the beginning of the new year."

Last paragraph tells it all!!! 

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%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A8-696x387.j

The information / translation ...
A report by the BBC News website confirmed that Bloomberg, on Thursday, that the devaluation of the Iraqi currency against the dollar will add the problem of inflation to the list of difficulties facing the Iraqi economy and the population who are recovering from a devastating war with ISIS , and therefore without making major cuts in Spending, this will not be sufficient to prevent the occurrence of greater economic pain or to reduce the deterioration occurring.
"The move to reduce the currency value by 23 percent to reduce pressure on public finances and try to secure billions of dollars in foreign aid has already met with opposition among some parliamentarians who are afraid of provoking voter anger after mass protests that rocked the country last year," the report, translated by Al-Maaloumah, said.
He added, “Although IraqIt is considered the third largest oil exporter in the world, but its economy has suffered from the Coronavirus pandemic that has weakened the global demand for energy supplies, and the quotas agreed upon with other oil exporters to stabilize the market also mean that the number of barrels that Iraq can pump is restricted, which narrows His options to increase revenue. ”
He continued, “According to the latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the Iraqi economy has shrunk by 11% this year, and this is better than the fund’s initial expectations of a 12.1% decline, but it still leaves Iraq with the largest contraction among OPEC members subject to the production limits, which highlights His excessive dependence on oil production.
He explained that "the IMF expects that the net foreign assets of Iraq will continue to decline sharply until 2024. The ratio of debt to gross domestic product in Iraq is."Among the highest rates is OPEC +, a group that includes non-OPEC oil exporters such as Russia.
“There will be a need to cut the budget to get substantial financial support,” said Mark Pohlund, senior credit research analyst at Red Intelligence. “Since the announcement of the devaluation, the gap between the peg and the black-market currency rate has narrowed, indicating that the adjustment helped. Reducing pressure at the moment, ”but it is not enough.
On the other hand, many analysts said that the devaluation was necessary to prove to international lenders that Iraq is serious about reform, but it is not sufficient to release the aid the government wants. End / 25 z

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Iraq’s Economic Woes Hit Harder Than U.S. Injustice

 

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Outrage over President Trump’s decision to pardon four American mercenaries for the murder of 17 people in Baghdad may bring a perverse form of respite for Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Iraq’s political elite: For this news cycle, at least, people will be madder at Trump than at them.

But the insult and injustice of the pardon for the Blackwater guards will not long distract Iraqis from the injuries and indignities that their own leaders have inflicted on them. Minds dwelling on the gruesome Nisour Square massacre in the fall of 2007 will soon revert to today’s grim realities, and the coming year’s glum prospects.

An intimation of the ill winds heading their way came last weekend, when the government devalued the Iraqi dinar by about 20% against the dollar. The government can thereby eke out more dinars from its dollar-denominated oil exports, which pay for 90% of state expenditures. Kadhimi defended the devaluation — the first since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 — by arguing that it was “a preemptive step” to control inflation. But most Iraqis now face a spike in the cost of living, because so much of what they consume, including essential food items, is imported in dollar-denominated purchases.

There were grimmer tidings still in the draft budget for 2021 approved this week by Kadhimi’s cabinet and pending parliamentary approval. The proposal bound to get the most attention was a new tax on the incomes of mid-level and senior public-sector employees. The prime minister sought to soften the blow by cutting his own salary by 40%, and those of ministers and members of parliament by 30%. But a population that regards the entire political class as irredeemably corrupt is unlikely to be mollified.

Public-sector employees face a triple-whammy: The government that struggles to pay their salaries has reduced the value of their income and, for mid-level and senior staff, is proposing to keep 15% in taxes. Remember that the state is the country’s biggest employer, with around 4 million people on government rolls and 3 million pensioners. Another million people are on welfare.

 

The anger swelling in the public sector has already spilled over into the public square, which has been crowded with anti-government protesters for more than a year. Earlier this month, security forces opened fire on government workers demanding their salaries in the Kurdish north, killing at least seven people.

The protesters had set fire to government offices and the headquarters of political parties. The leadership in Baghdad is now bracing for more such conflagrations across the country. Much of the anger will be directed at the prime minister, just when he needs support from the street to push through plans for vital economic reforms. A caretaker with no significant political base of his own, he can expect little solidarity from Iraq’s political parties, which rely on control of government ministries and agencies to maintain patronage networks.

Worse may be yet to come for Kadhimi if oil prices continue to soften amid fears that new strains of the coronavirus will prolong the pandemic’s economic pain. Iraq’s 2021 budget assumes oil at $42 a barrel. Even leaving aside the effects of the pandemic, that price may be hard to sustain if U.S. President-elect Joe Biden eases sanctions on Iran, allowing it to ramp up oil exports next year.

Heavily reliant on oil exports for revenues, and constrained by OPEC production cuts from exporting more, Iraq is already feeling the strain of lower prices. In desperation, the government is seeking upfront payments in exchange for long-term contracts. So far, only China ZhenHua Oil Co has proved game, agreeing to a $2 billion deal.

It won’t salvage the wreck of the Iraqi economy in 2020: The International Monetary Fund reckons it will have shrunk by 12% this year, and that the budget deficit will reach 22% of GDP. The United Nations expects Iraq’s poverty rate to double, to 40%.

With the political upheaval to come, the outlook for 2021 is, if anything, worse. And starting Jan. 21, Kadhimi will no longer have Trump to provide outrageous distractions.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and Africa.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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A sharp decline until 2024! An earlier report said the Economic White Paper reform package will revive the economy. Al Khazemi has been traveling all over the world getting support and this is the result! NEW FLASH GUYS!!! There will be no RV anytime soon and  I am tired of this dream of anything ever happening positive with these morons  When I say morons I just don't mean the GOI,I mean the UN, IMF, G7, World Bank, and Iran!! The Iraqi people or us here in the US haven't benefited from this fiasco since it started. The financial loss and the loss of life on both sides has not been compensated in any way. Hell, the budget has to be sent to Parliament, they have to vote on it and I will bet the farm they will drag it out like they have in the past. I said this would happen and I was hoping that I was wrong. The GOI are under estimating the Iraqi people because all hell is about to break loose shortly and I hope the whole damn Country implodes!! The Iraq people don't deserve this nor do we here in the US from our Government! None of them give a damn about the people and they show us every time and we continue to tolerate the abuse. I know you guys are going to say I am negative but I am just being realistic and waking up from this dream. I don't want to hear anything about them pulling in the dinar from the people and there will be a RV on 1.1.2021 because it is all speculation. They have devalued the dinar and there is no indication it is going to revalue, it is all speculation and a dream!! Damn!!

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Will reducing the "dinar" save the Iraqi economy from sinking?

Posted 4 hours ago
News source / Independent Press Agency
images-79.jpeg
Independent Press Agency
News source / Independent Press Agency
The Independent / Amal Nabil / The devaluation of the Iraqi currency will add inflation to the list of difficulties faced by the population recovering from a devastating war with ISIS.

Without major spending cuts, this will not be sufficient to prevent further economic pain, according to a Bloomberg report.

On Saturday, the government announced that it would devalue the currency for the first time since the US-led invasion in 2003, and devalued 23% of the dinar's value to reduce pressure on public finances as it tries to secure billions of dollars in foreign aid.

But the move, part of a broader plan to overhaul Iraq's oil-dependent economy and cut bloated public salaries, has already met opposition among parliamentarians who fear angering voters after mass protests that rocked the country last year.

It wouldn't be the last cut

So far, the devaluation has not caused a repeat of those deadly unrest in the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the government said the devaluation would be a one-off.

Ziad Daoud, an emerging market economist, said devaluation is painful for ordinary citizens

, But it is unlikely to be a one-off. The decrease in foreign exchange reserves envisaged by the budget is likely to lead to further adjustment in the currency - either formally or, more likely, on the black market.

11% contraction in the Iraqi economy

Although Iraq is the world's third largest oil exporter, its economy has suffered as the coronavirus pandemic depletes global demand for energy supplies. The quotas agreed with other oil exporters to stabilize the market also mean that the number of barrels that Iraq can pump is restricted, which narrows its options for increasing revenues.

According to the latest estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the Iraqi economy has shrunk by 11% this year.

This is better than the Fund's initial forecast of a 12.1% drop, but still leaves Iraq with the largest contraction among OPEC members subject to production caps, highlighting its over-reliance on hydrocarbons.

The International Monetary Fund expects that the net foreign assets of Iraq will continue to decline sharply until 2024. The debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in OPEC +, a group that includes non-OPEC oil exporters such as Russia.

$ 45 billion expected budget deficit

Oil exports in the 2021 budget are estimated at an average of 3.25 million barrels per day, with an assumed average price of $ 42. That would leave a budget deficit of about 58 trillion dinars ($ 45 billion).

According to the budget plan, which was approved by the cabinet on Sunday but not yet approved by Parliament, the amount of support from the International Monetary Fund is about six trillion dinars, which is a fraction of the gap.

Several analysts said the devaluation was necessary to show international lenders that Iraq is serious about reform, but not sufficient to trigger the aid the government wants.

More budget cuts 

"Budget cuts will be needed to get substantial financial support," said Mark Bullund, senior credit research analyst at Red Intelligence.

Since the announcement of the devaluation, the gap between the official exchange rate and the currency rate on the black market has narrowed, indicating that the adjustment helped relieve pressure for now.

  • But the government formed after protests last year that toppled former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi remains fragile. Now it is battling opposition to plans to roll back the public sector in a country where politicians have bought their loyalty for decades by creating government jobs.

"They will have some problems with passing budget reforms through parliament," said Ahmed Al-Tabakshli, chief investment officer for Iraq at Asia Frontier Capital and assistant professor at the American University in Iraq - Sulaymaniyah. “But they will have to deal with it.

 

The post Will reducing the "dinar" save the Iraqi economy from sinking? appeared first on Independent Press Agency

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Shedagal, I am not trying to be negative or rude and Adam doesn't know any more than the articles being posted. 

Did he predict that the dinar would devalue to 1450? Hell No! No one knows and here is a prediction for ya. We will go 

into 2021 with the same rate until God knows when! There! I said it! I have to admit though, at least something happened. 

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3 hours ago, GreedyDinar07 said:

A sharp decline until 2024! An earlier report said the Economic White Paper reform package will revive the economy. Al Khazemi has been traveling all over the world getting support system" rel="">support and this is the result! NEW FLASH GUYS!!! There will be no RV anytime soon and  I am tired of this dream of anything ever happening positive with these morons  When I say morons I just don't mean the GOI,I mean the UN, IMF, G7, World Bank, and Iran!! The Iraqi people or us here in the US haven't benefited from this fiasco since it started. The financial loss and the loss of life on both sides has not been compensated in any way. Hell, the budget has to be sent to Parliament, they have to vote on it and I will bet the farm they will drag it out like they have in the past. I said this would happen and I was hoping that I was wrong. The GOI are under estimating the Iraqi people because all hell is about to break loose shortly and I hope the whole damn Country implodes!! The Iraq people don't deserve this nor do we here in the US from our Government! None of them give a damn about the people and they show us every time and we continue to tolerate the abuse. I know you guys are going to say I am negative but I am just being realistic and waking up from this dream. I don't want to hear anything about them pulling in the dinar from the people and there will be a RV on 1.1.2021 because it is all speculation. They have devalued the dinar and there is no indication it is going to revalue, it is all speculation and a dream!! Damn!!

Sorry but you are wrong in your assessment!! My guess is you have done very little research when you bought your dinar and someone told you hey buy this is will go back up to $3.00 one day and it at a 1/10th of a penny right??

 

So let me give you a little free education and no the sky isn’t falling and the world is not going to end just because you don’t understand what Iraq is doing! Iraq is doing exactly what the plan has been and being told by the IMF and others. For the dinar to be able to revalue at the highest possible rate they have to get as much of the dinar off the streets from Iraq!! They have never been able to do this because the citizens do not trust the banks. So now by lowering the exchange rate significantly I guarantee you those Nancy were packed the few days beforehand this is the plan to get the dinar off the streets. Now you here more talk about lowering the rate even further to 1600 this will scare even more people who are still holding out to bring in all that mattress money into the bank before it gets worse. 
 

Now does this suck for their citizens yes you bet it does but this has to be a very short term play as Inflation will go through the ROOF!! It already has if you look at their local food markets raising prices 10-15% the very next day! So now the Iraqi citizen lost 22% value one day during to buy food costs him 15% yeah that truly sucks! However for Iraq to be able to RV their currency this must be done as Iraq is only responsible for having to cover the value of their currency circulating INSIDE of Iraq they do not have to cover what is Outside of Iraq! This is a hard concept for so many dinar investors to understand but here in America when we go into exchange our dinar does not go back to Iraq it goes to our US Treasury and will be used as a Reserve currency.

 

Lastly, the other reason why Iraq has lowered their exchange rate it also allows the, to payoff as much debt as they can much cheaper basically a 22% discount on their debt which is huge!! Whatever they don’t payoff I am sure they will renegotiate. From here they will add value back to their currency which will allow them to participate in the International markets. I know it may seem like this news is depressing but it’s not if you truly know what is actually going on which apparently you along with many do not! This is a very strategic move that had to be done in order for them to revalue, it will give them less debt and then cheaper payments and then bam we will have our RV!! I have posted several times also and it’s truly my belief Iraq is on a short time frame to do this I say within two weeks on or before Jan 6th IMO!! Guess time will tell but please don’t let all this news get you down I truly believe it’s great news for us investors not so much for the average Iraqi citizen but once they RV they will gain HUGE purchasing power and will be happy!! 
 

Please sit back and relax and just Enjoy your Holidays with your family and friends and Peace be with you all!!!

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36 minutes ago, Dinarrock said:

Sorry but you are wrong in your assessment!! My guess is you have done very little research when you bought your dinar and someone told you hey buy this is will go back up to $3.00 one day and it at a 1/10th of a penny right??

 

So let me give you a little free education and no the sky isn’t falling and the world is not going to end just because you don’t understand what Iraq is doing! Iraq is doing exactly what the plan has been and being told by the IMF and others. For the dinar to be able to revalue at the highest possible rate they have to get as much of the dinar off the streets from Iraq!! They have never been able to do this because the citizens do not trust the banks. So now by lowering the exchange rate significantly I guarantee you those Nancy were packed the few days beforehand this is the plan to get the dinar off the streets. Now you here more talk about lowering the rate even further to 1600 this will scare even more people who are still holding out to bring in all that mattress money into the bank before it gets worse. 
 

Now does this suck for their citizens yes you bet it does but this has to be a very short term play as Inflation will go through the ROOF!! It already has if you look at their local food markets raising prices 10-15% the very next day! So now the Iraqi citizen lost 22% value one day during to buy food costs him 15% yeah that truly sucks! However for Iraq to be able to RV their currency this must be done as Iraq is only responsible for having to cover the value of their currency circulating INSIDE of Iraq they do not have to cover what is Outside of Iraq! This is a hard concept for so many dinar investors to understand but here in America when we go into exchange our dinar does not go back to Iraq it goes to our US Treasury and will be used as a Reserve currency.

 

Lastly, the other reason why Iraq has lowered their exchange rate it also allows the, to payoff as much debt as they can much cheaper basically a 22% discount on their debt which is huge!! Whatever they don’t payoff I am sure they will renegotiate. From here they will add value back to their currency which will allow them to participate in the International markets. I know it may seem like this news is depressing but it’s not if you truly know what is actually going on which apparently you along with many do not! This is a very strategic move that had to be done in order for them to revalue, it will give them less debt and then cheaper payments and then bam we will have our RV!! I have posted several times also and it’s truly my belief Iraq is on a short time frame to do this I say within two weeks on or before Jan 6th IMO!! Guess time will tell but please don’t let all this news get you down I truly believe it’s great news for us investors not so much for the average Iraqi citizen but once they RV they will gain HUGE purchasing power and will be happy!! 
 

Please sit back and relax and just Enjoy your Holidays with your family and friends and Peace be with you all!!!

Excellent excellent Meery Christmas!

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2 hours ago, Dinarrock said:

Sorry but you are wrong in your assessment!! My guess is you have done very little research when you bought your dinar and someone told you hey buy this is will go back up to $3.00 one day and it at a 1/10th of a penny right??

 

So let me give you a little free education and no the sky isn’t falling and the world is not going to end just because you don’t understand what Iraq is doing! Iraq is doing exactly what the plan has been and being told by the IMF and others. For the dinar to be able to revalue at the highest possible rate they have to get as much of the dinar off the streets from Iraq!! They have never been able to do this because the citizens do not trust the banks. So now by lowering the exchange rate significantly I guarantee you those Nancy were packed the few days beforehand this is the plan to get the dinar off the streets. Now you here more talk about lowering the rate even further to 1600 this will scare even more people who are still holding out to bring in all that mattress money into the bank before it gets worse. 
 

Now does this suck for their citizens yes you bet it does but this has to be a very short term play as Inflation will go through the ROOF!! It already has if you look at their local food markets raising prices 10-15% the very next day! So now the Iraqi citizen lost 22% value one day during to buy food costs him 15% yeah that truly sucks! However for Iraq to be able to RV their currency this must be done as Iraq is only responsible for having to cover the value of their currency circulating INSIDE of Iraq they do not have to cover what is Outside of Iraq! This is a hard concept for so many dinar investors to understand but here in America when we go into exchange our dinar does not go back to Iraq it goes to our US Treasury and will be used as a Reserve currency.

 

Lastly, the other reason why Iraq has lowered their exchange rate it also allows the, to payoff as much debt as they can much cheaper basically a 22% discount on their debt which is huge!! Whatever they don’t payoff I am sure they will renegotiate. From here they will add value back to their currency which will allow them to participate in the International markets. I know it may seem like this news is depressing but it’s not if you truly know what is actually going on which apparently you along with many do not! This is a very strategic move that had to be done in order for them to revalue, it will give them less debt and then cheaper payments and then bam we will have our RV!! I have posted several times also and it’s truly my belief Iraq is on a short time frame to do this I say within two weeks on or before Jan 6th IMO!! Guess time will tell but please don’t let all this news get you down I truly believe it’s great news for us investors not so much for the average Iraqi citizen but once they RV they will gain HUGE purchasing power and will be happy!! 
 

Please sit back and relax and just Enjoy your Holidays with your family and friends and Peace be with you all!!!

Seems like a well thought out plan. I like the sound of it. If you don't mind me asking,  what is your background? Any experience in finance,  economics or banking? Or just thorough research? Not judging or doubting, just curious. 

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Thanks for your input Dinarrock. I am aware they are trying to get the dinar back from the citizens.I have been following this since 2007 and I am far from a rookie like some one posted. Everything you posted makes since but this is Iraq we are dealing with. I hope like hell it happens by 1.6.2021 but I highly doubt it. Thats just my opinion which we are all entitled to. How long can they allow the rate to be devalued is the question and if Parliament has to approve the budget before this happens then I am not going to hold my breath.. but like I said at least something happened and when I look at it in hindsight, that is progress! The White Paper Economic Plan goes into effect on 1.1.2021, so we will see. And to whoever posted the south will rise again HELL NO IT WON’T!! It wasn’t a good time for all of us ya know. How would you feel if the shoe was on the other foot!! By the way, Safe Dinar is selling $25,000 notes uncirculated... you have to check the site everyday because they don’t last long. Go RV!!

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