Saturday Noontime Opinions @ 12:55 PM CST - 11/14/2020

[ronscarpa]

Good Afternoon DV, here's a few opinions & comments that might be of interest to you. Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what  they perceive to be happening in Iraq. RON

 

 

*** Kaperoni *** Direct from the IMF in 2014...“14.  The de facto fixed exchange rate has served Iraq well. The authorities agreed that a stable nominal exchange rate provides a valuable anchor for inflation expectations in an uncertain environment, and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future. In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”  In other words, create the condition to move from a peg to a float and counter inflation as a result of significant investment by allowing the currency to appreciate countering the inflation created from that investment.  This is how you do it.  It is not an option, it is how central banks operate.  There is no RV.

 

*** Pimpy ***  the reforms are supposed to take place between 3 to 5 years...it's great.  the economy grows.  Their economy grows their currency becomes stronger.  As their currency becomes stronger ours [U.S. Dollar] becomes weaker and that means our exchange rate change benefits those who hold Iraqi dinar.
 

 

[ronscarpa]

Added @ 1:30 PM  CST:

 

*** Pimpy *** ...talking to my friends in the currency world, there is a lot of speculation back and forth on what a Biden Administration means to the exchange rate happening for the Iraqi Dinar.  Again it goes back and forth.  It's all speculation.  Some people say it doesn't matter.  The rate change is the rate change.  But then you got other people...there is concern expressed at some high levels.  Either way here's my thing...everybody is only speculating...we don't know what's going to happen...I'm expecting news on the Iraqi dinar any day now.    Hopefully good news and I'll be able to share it.