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Economists rule out the return of lost jobs in America until 2023


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Economists rule out the return of lost jobs in America until 2023

The absence of a vaccine, lack of fiscal stimulus measures and the uncertainty surrounding the elections are behind the slowdown in the labor market recovery

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Kefaya Olier is a journalist 
Friday 9 October 2020 17:48
    
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The general closure policy adopted by countries to confront Corona has caused millions of jobs to be lost around the world (AFP)

The labor market in the United States is expected to face a long-term recovery and a slowdown in recovery, especially in light of the potential exacerbation of the Covid-19 crisis with the approaching winter and influenza season, the lack of a vaccine for the virus, the lack of new fiscal stimulus measures and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential elections in the third. From next November, according to a recent survey by The Wall Street Journal, the opinions of 63 economists were monitored from October 2 to 6.

According to the survey, more than half of the economists who are businessmen and academics surveyed this month ruled out a return to the labor market until 2023, or thereafter, or the return of all jobs lost as a result of the closure associated with the Coronavirus, a timetable slower than economists expected in a similar poll. It was conducted by the newspaper six months ago.

Employment gains have slowed sharply as autumn approaches as more layoffs turn into permanent, adding to indications that the economy faces a long road to full recovery from the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

"The slowing momentum in the labor market bodes badly for the broader recovery, and points to the effects of the mounting scars from the crisis," Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told the newspaper.

Jobs in the United States fell to nearly 11 million jobs in September than they were in February. According to the US Department of Labor, nearly 4 million jobs have been lost since the start of the pandemic in the entertainment and hospitality sector. Economists say the recovery in travel and hospitality has been slower than expected earlier in the epidemic due to the continued high rates of coronavirus infection.

"The damage to employment in the services sector will be long-term, and many will face long periods of unemployment that will delay the return to February 2020 levels," said Joseph Prosolas, chief economist at RSMUS.

42.9 percent expect a recovery of the US labor market by 2023

The "Wall Street Journal" conducted a poll in April of economists, in which more than half of the respondents expected job losses to reach their lowest levels in the second quarter of 2020. This proved with the labor market losing 13.3 million seasonal jobs. In the second quarter, the biggest quarterly decline in records dating back to 1939.

Economists predicted in the April survey that, on average, jobs would recover to their level in February 2020 in just over two years, by the third quarter of 2022.

In this month's survey, just over a third of economists, 34.7 percent, broadly stuck to this timeline and said that payrolls will recover in 2022. A larger share, 42.9 percent, sees the labor market recover in 2023. While 12.2 percent of those surveyed expected that it will take longer, and 2 percent expected that it will take until 2030.

All those polled by the newspaper agreed that getting more help and motivation can mitigate the losses associated with the virus and achieve a stronger recovery. "If not, then all bets are off and downside risks dominate," said Diane Sonck, chief economist at Grant Thornton.

The latest Wall Street Journal survey was closed before President Trump called on Congress on Tuesday to approve some additional aid for airlines, a small business assistance program, and direct checks for many Americans. Shortly before that, Trump had announced a halt to discussions on the relief package that Democrats and Republicans had been discussing for months.

Election fraught with doubts

Poll respondents this month saw the upcoming presidential election as more uncertain than usual, and 80 percent of economists said the current election process introduces more uncertainty into financial markets compared to presidential elections in recent decades. Nearly three-quarters of economists, 73.2 percent, said this creates more uncertainty than usual for the economy.

Expectations of GDP contraction of 3.6 percent this year

Most economists said in this month's survey that expectations of a GDP recovery are significantly faster than jobs, with more than half of economists expecting, 57.4 percent, that in 2021, economic output will return to the seasonally adjusted level of inflation from its previous peak in the fourth quarter. From 2019. 18.5% of economists expect GDP to recover to its previous level, i.e. peak, by the first quarter of 2022.

"We are replacing labor-intensive services," said Leo Feller, chief economist at Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, and he expects GDP to recover faster than employment.

Economists expected the country's gross domestic product to contract 3.6 percent this year, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. On average, they expected the economy to grow 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3 percent in 2022.

https://www.independentarabia.com/node/158891/اقتصاد/اقتصاديون-يستبعدون-عودة-الوظائف-المفقودة-في-أميركا-حتى-2023

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The White House makes a $ 1.8 trillion stimulus package to revive the economy
 
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Economy News _ Baghdad

The White House has offered a stimulus package of $ 1.8 trillion for a new economic recovery plan, according to media reports, in the hope of reaching an agreement with the Democrats three weeks before the presidential elections.

This comes after negotiations that lasted more than two months and characterized US President Donald Trump's change of positions radically

Trump wrote in a tweet that negotiations are "going in full swing. Expect something important!", Referring to the assistance awaiting families and companies facing financial difficulties due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic.

Trump's economic adviser, Larry Cadlow, explained that the president had chosen a "revised" economic support plan, without giving further details.

The value of the proposed bid to the Democrats is $ 1,800 billion, according to information reported by The Wall Street Journal, which is much more than the first bid ($ 1,500 billion).

Wall Street welcomed the White House's move as stock market indices continued to rise.

By increasing the amount on offer, the Trump administration hopes to convince the Democrats, who will be bidding at $ 2,200 billion.

"I hope we can quickly reach an agreement," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday in a press conference.

Pelosi, who is conducting negotiations with Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, said the agreement is "half financial, half political."

This potential aid has become a major gamble for the Republican camp at a time when the gap in opinion polls between Democratic candidate Joe Biden and President Trump is widening. Most polls show that the latter, who is running for a second term, is a loser.

The economic scene currently does not benefit the Republican president, as nearly 11 million people are unemployed and 25 million employees have witnessed low salaries due to the epidemic and are living thanks to government aid.

- 'differences' -

Republicans and Democrats agree on some issues such as new checks for families, loans to the small businesses worst hit, and aid to airlines.

However, Republicans oppose a support plan for local administrations, especially for the states most affected by the epidemic, many of which are ruled by the Democrats.

The leader of the Republican majority in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, said Friday that it was "unlikely" to reach an agreement "in the next three weeks."

During a visit to Kentucky, which is his stronghold, he added, "We need another aid plan, but the election date is approaching."

"We hope to be able to reach a settlement soon. I cannot tell you when exactly this can happen," he said.

The talks between the Trump administration and the Democrats have been going on for more than two and a half months and have stalled for several weeks.

Trump was criticized even inside his camp on Tuesday when he suddenly announced the suspension of negotiations, thus delaying the granting of aid until after the presidential elections on November 3.

But the president backed down on Thursday, telling "Fox Business", "We are starting to have very fruitful talks," referring to proposals related to helping airlines and providing checks of $ 1,200 each for laid-off workers.

"We are talking about an agreement that bypasses airlines," he said, adding "I think we have a really good chance to do something."

 

Number of observations 62   Date of addendum 10/10/2020

https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=22176

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 The White House makes a $ 1.8 trillion stimulus package to revive the economy
 
23482.jpg
 
 
 
 

Economy News _ Baghdad

The White House has offered a stimulus package of $ 1.8 trillion for a new economic recovery plan, according to media reports, in the hope of reaching an agreement with the Democrats three weeks before the presidential elections.

This comes after negotiations that lasted more than two months and characterized US President Donald Trump's change of positions radically

Trump wrote in a tweet that negotiations are "going in full swing. Expect something important!", Referring to the assistance awaiting families and companies facing financial difficulties due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic.

Trump's economic adviser, Larry Cadlow, explained that the president had chosen a "revised" economic support plan, without giving further details.

The value of the proposed bid to the Democrats is $ 1,800 billion, according to information reported by The Wall Street Journal, which is much more than the first bid ($ 1,500 billion).

Wall Street welcomed the White House's move as stock market indices continued to rise.

By increasing the amount on offer, the Trump administration hopes to convince the Democrats, who will be bidding at $ 2,200 billion.

"I hope we can quickly reach an agreement," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday in a press conference.

Pelosi, who is conducting negotiations with Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, said the agreement is "half financial, half political."

This potential aid has become a major gamble for the Republican camp at a time when the gap in opinion polls between Democratic candidate Joe Biden and President Trump is widening. Most polls show that the latter, who is running for a second term, is a loser.

The economic scene currently does not benefit the Republican president, as nearly 11 million people are unemployed and 25 million employees have witnessed low salaries due to the epidemic and are living thanks to government aid.

- 'differences' -

Republicans and Democrats agree on some issues such as new checks for families, loans to the small businesses worst hit, and aid to airlines.

However, Republicans oppose a support plan for local administrations, especially for the states most affected by the epidemic, many of which are ruled by the Democrats.

The leader of the Republican majority in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, said Friday that it was "unlikely" to reach an agreement "in the next three weeks."

During a visit to Kentucky, which is his stronghold, he added, "We need another aid plan, but the election date is approaching."

"We hope to be able to reach a settlement soon. I cannot tell you when exactly this can happen," he said.

The talks between the Trump administration and the Democrats have been going on for more than two and a half months and have stalled for several weeks.

Trump was criticized even inside his camp on Tuesday when he suddenly announced the suspension of negotiations, thus delaying the granting of aid until after the presidential elections on November 3.

But the president backed down on Thursday, telling "Fox Business", "We are starting to have very fruitful talks," referring to proposals related to helping airlines and providing checks of $ 1,200 each for laid-off workers.

"We are talking about an agreement that bypasses airlines," he said, adding "I think we have a really good chance to do something."

 

Number of observations 65   Date of addendum 10/10/2020

https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=22176

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